Edgehalla

Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR C · TE myth

Starters out on defense: every call

Each missing regular defensive starter (CB for WRs, S/LB for TEs, DL/LB for RBs, DB for QBs) adds points to the opposing player.

2024 backtest

716–1049–204

40.6% vs 39.1% baseline

Win rate 40.6% (95% 38.3%–42.9%) vs baseline 39.1%

2025 backtest

681–991–185

40.7% vs 39.1% baseline

Win rate 40.7% (95% 38.4%–43.1%) vs baseline 39.1%

2026 live (from Week 5)

–

first live calls this week

2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)

55–83–12

39.9% vs 39.4% baseline

Win rate 39.9% (95% 32.1%–48.2%) vs baseline 39.4%

2024–25 by position and by expected effect

PositionW–L–PWin %Baseline
RB349–510–8740.6%38.2%
TE371–558–19439.9%39.1%
QB198–194–1950.5%49.6%
WR479–778–8938.1%36.3%
Expected effect (PPR)W–L–PWin %Baseline
flag716–1049–20440.6%39.1%
0.25–0.5651–959–18340.4%38.7%
0.5–129–31–248.3%48.3%
1+1–150.0%49.6%

Call log

SeasonAll202420252026
SourceAllBacktestBacktest (after the fact)Live
PositionAllQBRBWRTE
ResultAll✅ Win❌ LossPushVoidNot graded
Starters out on defense calls, newest first
WeekPlayerCallProjActualMarginResultSource · made
2025 W4Chig OkonkwoTE TENBoost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected +0.0)7.01.4−5.5❌Backtest ·
2025 W4Cade OttonTE TBBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.0)7.33.9−3.4❌Backtest ·
2025 W4Thomas OdukoyaTE TENBoost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected +0.0)0.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W4Xavier SmithWR LARBoost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.1)1.40.0−1.4❌Backtest ·
2025 W4Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR SEABoost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.3)18.613.0−5.6❌Backtest ·
2025 W4Michael WilsonWR ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.1)7.54.5−3.0❌Backtest ·
2025 W4Parker WashingtonWR JAXBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1)8.55.9−2.6❌Backtest ·
2025 W4Xavier HutchinsonWR HOUBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.3)3.73.7+0.0pushBacktest ·
2025 W4Elijah CooksWR JAXBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1)1.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W4Julian HillTE MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.0)1.62.9+1.4✅Backtest ·
2025 W4Jared WayneWR HOUBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.3)0.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W4Jake BoboWR SEABoost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.3)1.32.7+1.4✅Backtest ·
2025 W4Rakim JarrettWR TBBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.1)2.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W4Ryan MillerWR TBBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.1)3.10.0−3.1❌Backtest ·
2025 W4Sean TuckerRB TBBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.1)2.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W4Tank DellWR HOUBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.3)9.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W4De'Von AchaneRB MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1)19.817.1−2.7❌Backtest ·
2025 W4Payne DurhamTE TBBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.0)1.80.0−1.8❌Backtest ·
2025 W4Trey PalmerWR TBBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.1)3.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W4Puka NacuaWR LARBoost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.1)24.636.0+11.4✅Backtest ·
2025 W4C.J. StroudQB HOUBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected −0.6)16.418.4+2.0✅Backtest ·
2025 W4Jack WestoverTE NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1)0.10.0−0.1pushBacktest ·
2025 W4Carson SteeleRB KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.1)2.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W4Bucky IrvingRB TBBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.1)15.925.5+9.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W4Keilan RobinsonRB JAXBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1)0.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W4Jaheim BellTE NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1)0.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W4Xavier WeaverWR ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.1)2.00.0−2.0❌Backtest ·
2025 W4Joshua CephusWR JAXBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1)1.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W4Kameron JohnsonWR TBBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.1)0.70.0−0.7❌Backtest ·
2025 W4David Martin-RobinsonTE TENBoost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected +0.0)0.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W4Jordan WhittingtonWR LARBoost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.1)5.01.7−3.3❌Backtest ·
2025 W4Devin CulpTE TBBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.0)2.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W4Terrell JenningsRB NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.3)2.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W4Marvin Harrison Jr.WR ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.1)12.918.6+5.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W4Jalen McMillanWR TBBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.1)8.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W4Jaylen WrightRB MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1)2.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W4Brian Thomas Jr.WR JAXBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1)16.010.6−5.4❌Backtest ·
2025 W4Michael Penix Jr.QB ATLBoost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected −0.3)15.218.7+3.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W4Brashard SmithRB KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.1)1.86.6+4.8✅Backtest ·
2025 W4Emeka EgbukaWR TBBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.1)16.720.1+3.4✅Backtest ·
2025 W4Jayden HigginsWR HOUBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.3)2.99.4+6.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W4Jaylin NoelWR HOUBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.3)1.61.0−0.6❌Backtest ·
2025 W4Ollie Gordon IIRB MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1)3.91.0−2.9❌Backtest ·
2025 W4Tez JohnsonWR TBBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.1)2.62.3−0.3pushBacktest ·
2025 W4LeQuint Allen Jr.RB JAXBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1)3.41.7−1.7❌Backtest ·
2025 W4Gunnar HelmTE TENBoost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected +0.0)3.12.2−0.9❌Backtest ·
2025 W4Konata MumpfieldWR LARBoost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.1)0.60.0−0.6❌Backtest ·
2025 W4Tory HortonWR SEABoost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.3)6.92.0−4.9❌Backtest ·
2025 W4Cam WardQB TENBoost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected −0.3)10.84.5−6.3❌Backtest ·
2025 W4Bhayshul TutenRB JAXBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1)4.43.2−1.2❌Backtest ·
2025 W4TreVeyon HendersonRB NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.3)7.612.6+5.0✅Backtest ·
2025 W3Adam ThielenWR MINBoost (Starters out on defense vs CIN, expected +0.1)8.70.0−8.7❌Backtest ·
2025 W3Chris ConleyWR SFBoost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.3)2.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W3Demarcus RobinsonWR SFBoost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.3)9.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W3Laquon TreadwellWR INDBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1)1.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W3Trent TaylorWR SFBoost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.3)1.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W3Kendrick BourneWR SFBoost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.3)5.07.8+2.8✅Backtest ·
2025 W3Marquez Valdes-ScantlingWR SFBoost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.3)2.81.9−0.9❌Backtest ·
2025 W3Russell GageWR SFBoost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.3)1.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W3Brandon PowellWR MINBoost (Starters out on defense vs CIN, expected +0.1)1.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W3Foster MoreauTE NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.0)3.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W3Ashton DulinWR INDBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1)0.90.0−0.9❌Backtest ·
2025 W3Daniel JonesQB INDBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected −0.3)17.515.8−1.7❌Backtest ·
2025 W3Trishton JacksonWR MINBoost (Starters out on defense vs CIN, expected +0.1)1.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W3Juwan JohnsonTE NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.0)9.211.1+1.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W3Michael PittmanWR INDBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1)12.719.3+6.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W3Jauan JenningsWR SFBoost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.3)11.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W3Brandon AiyukWR SFBoost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.3)11.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W3Justin JeffersonWR MINBoost (Starters out on defense vs CIN, expected +0.1)18.312.5−5.8❌Backtest ·
2025 W3Charlie WoernerTE ATLBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.0)1.10.5−0.6❌Backtest ·
2025 W3Jack StollTE NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.0)0.310.1+9.8✅Backtest ·
2025 W3Feleipe FranksTE ATLBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.0)0.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W3Avery WilliamsRB ATLBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1)1.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W3Kyle PittsTE ATLBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.0)8.17.9−0.2pushBacktest ·
2025 W3Mac JonesQB SFBoost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected −0.6)16.413.3−3.2❌Backtest ·
2025 W3Tyler AllgeierRB ATLBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1)7.81.4−6.4❌Backtest ·
2025 W3Teagan QuitorianoTE ATLBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.0)0.30.0−0.3pushBacktest ·
2025 W3Jalen NailorWR MINBoost (Starters out on defense vs CIN, expected +0.1)6.06.7+0.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W3Alec PierceWR INDBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1)9.110.7+1.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W3Brock PurdyQB SFBoost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected −0.6)17.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W3Skyy MooreWR SFBoost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.3)0.82.0+1.2✅Backtest ·
2025 W3Bijan RobinsonRB ATLBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1)21.616.1−5.5❌Backtest ·
2025 W3Jordan AddisonWR MINBoost (Starters out on defense vs CIN, expected +0.1)10.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W3Josh DownsWR INDBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1)10.55.4−5.1❌Backtest ·
2025 W3Jacob CowingWR SFBoost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.3)1.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W3Spencer RattlerQB NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected −0.3)12.711.7−1.0❌Backtest ·
2025 W3Jase McClellanRB ATLBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1)2.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W3Dallin HolkerTE NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.0)0.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W3Anthony GouldWR INDBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1)1.60.0−1.6❌Backtest ·
2025 W3Adonai MitchellWR INDBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1)4.70.0−4.7❌Backtest ·
2025 W3Ricky PearsallWR SFBoost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.3)10.919.7+8.8✅Backtest ·
2025 W3Moliki MatavaoTE NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.0)0.1––voidBacktest ·

NewerPage 32 of 32 · 3,192 calls

How this works

Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.

Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.

Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse