Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR C · TE myth
Starters out on defense: every call
Each missing regular defensive starter (CB for WRs, S/LB for TEs, DL/LB for RBs, DB for QBs) adds points to the opposing player.
2024 backtest
716–1049–204
40.6% vs 39.1% baseline
2025 backtest
681–991–185
40.7% vs 39.1% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
55–83–12
39.9% vs 39.4% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB | 349–510–87 | 40.6% | 38.2% |
| TE | 371–558–194 | 39.9% | 39.1% |
| QB | 198–194–19 | 50.5% | 49.6% |
| WR | 479–778–89 | 38.1% | 36.3% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 716–1049–204 | 40.6% | 39.1% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 651–959–183 | 40.4% | 38.7% |
| 0.5–1 | 29–31–2 | 48.3% | 48.3% |
| 1+ | 1–1 | 50.0% | 49.6% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 W13 | Pat FreiermuthTE PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.0) | 5.1 | 0.0 | −5.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Hunter LongTE JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.0) | 2.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Tommy TrembleTE CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR, expected +0.0) | 3.4 | 1.2 | −2.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Grant CalcaterraTE PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1) | 2.0 | 0.0 | −2.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | James MitchellTE CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR, expected +0.0) | 1.1 | 0.0 | −1.1 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Zaire Mitchell-PadenTE NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.0) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | E.J. JenkinsTE PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Darnell WashingtonTE PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.0) | 4.7 | 6.5 | +1.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Cameron LatuTE PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1) | 0.1 | 0.0 | −0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Blake WhiteheartTE CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.0) | 0.5 | 0.0 | −0.5 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Brenton StrangeTE JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.0) | 7.9 | 13.5 | +5.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Sam LaPortaTE DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.0) | 12.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Davis AllenTE LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1) | 3.5 | 1.4 | −2.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Jack WestoverTE NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1) | 0.3 | 0.0 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Ja'Tavion SandersTE CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR, expected +0.0) | 4.6 | 0.0 | −4.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Jaheim BellTE NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Treyton WelchTE NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.0) | 0.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Dallin HolkerTE NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.0) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Colston LovelandTE CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.0) | 6.6 | 5.8 | −0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Mitchell EvansTE CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR, expected +0.0) | 1.9 | 5.0 | +3.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Moliki MatavaoTE NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.0) | 0.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Jackson MeeksTE DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.0) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Harold Fannin Jr.TE CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.0) | 7.7 | 11.3 | +3.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Terrance FergusonTE LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1) | 3.2 | 0.0 | −3.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | MyCole PruittTE PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Johnny MundtTE JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.0) | 3.2 | 2.2 | −1.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | George KittleTE SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1) | 11.4 | 13.8 | +2.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Anthony FirkserTE DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1) | 0.7 | 0.0 | −0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Eric SaubertTE SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Jonnu SmithTE PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1) | 6.5 | 5.8 | −0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Gerald EverettTE CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.0) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Ross DwelleyTE DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1) | 0.7 | 0.0 | −0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Mark AndrewsTE BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.0) | 11.8 | 2.1 | −9.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Durham SmytheTE CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.0) | 0.8 | 1.4 | +0.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Stephen CarlsonTE CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.0) | 0.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | T.J. HockensonTE MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.0) | 6.6 | 5.9 | −0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Josh OliverTE MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.0) | 1.9 | 1.4 | −0.5 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Dawson KnoxTE BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected +0.1) | 6.1 | 4.7 | −1.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Tyler MabryTE SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Cole KmetTE CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.0) | 6.1 | 1.3 | −4.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Stephen SullivanTE CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.0) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Shane ZylstraTE DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1) | 0.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Quintin MorrisTE JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.0) | 1.8 | 0.0 | −1.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Brock WrightTE DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1) | 3.8 | 5.9 | +2.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Luke FarrellTE SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1) | 1.8 | 1.3 | −0.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Pat FreiermuthTE PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1) | 5.8 | 10.9 | +5.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Tommy TrembleTE CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.0) | 3.9 | 0.0 | −3.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Jake TongesTE SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1) | 3.3 | 0.0 | −3.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | James MitchellTE CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.0) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | John FitzPatrickTE GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN, expected +0.0) | 1.3 | 2.1 | +0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Ko KieftTE TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR, expected +0.0) | 0.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Nick MuseTE MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.0) | 0.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Chig OkonkwoTE TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.0) | 6.7 | 7.0 | +0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Isaiah LikelyTE BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.0) | 6.3 | 2.0 | −4.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Charlie KolarTE BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.0) | 2.8 | 0.0 | −2.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Cade OttonTE TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR, expected +0.0) | 9.0 | 6.1 | −2.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Thomas OdukoyaTE TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.0) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Darnell WashingtonTE PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1) | 4.7 | 4.2 | −0.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Josh WhyleTE GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN, expected +0.0) | 1.8 | 1.1 | −0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Brayden WillisTE SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1) | 0.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Ben SimsTE MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.0) | 0.3 | 0.0 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Brenton StrangeTE JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.0) | 6.5 | 14.3 | +7.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Tucker KraftTE GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN, expected +0.0) | 9.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Payne DurhamTE TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR, expected +0.0) | 0.9 | 0.0 | −0.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Sam LaPortaTE DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1) | 12.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Luke MusgraveTE GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN, expected +0.0) | 3.1 | 1.7 | −1.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Ja'Tavion SandersTE CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.0) | 5.3 | 1.6 | −3.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | David Martin-RobinsonTE TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.0) | 0.4 | 0.0 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Devin CulpTE TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR, expected +0.0) | 0.4 | 0.0 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | AJ BarnerTE SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1) | 7.9 | 3.8 | −4.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Nick KallerupTE SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1) | 0.8 | 0.0 | −0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Colston LovelandTE CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.0) | 7.5 | 14.9 | +7.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Mitchell EvansTE CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.0) | 2.1 | 0.0 | −2.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Jackson HawesTE BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected +0.1) | 3.1 | 4.6 | +1.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Keleki LatuTE BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected +0.1) | 1.5 | 0.0 | −1.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Jackson MeeksTE DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1) | 0.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Ben YurosekTE MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.0) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Gunnar HelmTE TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.0) | 4.8 | 11.1 | +6.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Elijah ArroyoTE SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1) | 4.0 | 1.5 | −2.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Zach ErtzTE WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.0) | 10.2 | 8.2 | −2.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Travis KelceTE KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN, expected +0.0) | 10.3 | 24.1 | +13.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Jordan MatthewsTE CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.0) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Eric TomlinsonTE LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.0) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Hunter HenryTE NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.0) | 12.7 | 8.5 | −4.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | George KittleTE SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.1) | 11.5 | 24.7 | +13.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Robert TonyanTE KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN, expected +0.0) | 0.1 | 1.1 | +1.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Gerald EverettTE CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN, expected +0.0) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Will DisslyTE LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.0) | 3.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Tyler ConklinTE LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.0) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Ian ThomasTE LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.0) | 0.9 | 3.0 | +2.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Dalton SchultzTE HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1) | 8.9 | 11.1 | +2.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Tanner HudsonTE CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.0) | 3.5 | 5.2 | +1.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Durham SmytheTE CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN, expected +0.0) | 0.3 | 1.8 | +1.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Mike GesickiTE CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.0) | 5.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Hayden HurstTE LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.0) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Irv SmithTE HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Stephen CarlsonTE CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN, expected +0.0) | 0.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | T.J. HockensonTE MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.0) | 8.1 | 6.9 | −1.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Josh OliverTE MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.0) | 2.4 | 0.7 | −1.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Drew SampleTE CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.0) | 2.7 | 0.0 | −2.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse