Edgehalla

Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR C · TE myth

Starters out on defense: every call

Each missing regular defensive starter (CB for WRs, S/LB for TEs, DL/LB for RBs, DB for QBs) adds points to the opposing player.

2024 backtest

716–1049–204

40.6% vs 39.1% baseline

Win rate 40.6% (95% 38.3%–42.9%) vs baseline 39.1%

2025 backtest

681–991–185

40.7% vs 39.1% baseline

Win rate 40.7% (95% 38.4%–43.1%) vs baseline 39.1%

2026 live (from Week 5)

–

first live calls this week

2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)

55–83–12

39.9% vs 39.4% baseline

Win rate 39.9% (95% 32.1%–48.2%) vs baseline 39.4%

2024–25 by position and by expected effect

PositionW–L–PWin %Baseline
RB349–510–8740.6%38.2%
TE371–558–19439.9%39.1%
QB198–194–1950.5%49.6%
WR479–778–8938.1%36.3%
Expected effect (PPR)W–L–PWin %Baseline
flag716–1049–20440.6%39.1%
0.25–0.5651–959–18340.4%38.7%
0.5–129–31–248.3%48.3%
1+1–150.0%49.6%

Call log

SeasonAll202420252026
SourceAllBacktestBacktest (after the fact)Live
PositionAllQBRBWRTE
ResultAll✅ Win❌ LossPushVoidNot graded
Starters out on defense calls, newest first
WeekPlayerCallProjActualMarginResultSource · made
2025 W9Tim JonesWR JAXBoost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected +0.1)1.12.5+1.4✅Backtest ·
2025 W9Nico CollinsWR HOUBoost (Starters out on defense vs DEN, expected +0.1)13.214.5+1.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W9Jaret PattersonRB LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1)3.54.4+0.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W9Trevor LawrenceQB JAXBoost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected −0.3)17.121.2+4.1✅Backtest ·
2025 W9Greg DulcichTE MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.0)0.69.9+9.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W9Rashid ShaheedWR NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs LAR, expected +0.1)9.611.8+2.2✅Backtest ·
2025 W9Tucker FiskTE LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.0)0.72.2+1.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W9Alec PierceWR INDBoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1)12.217.5+5.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W9Calvin Austin IIIWR PITBoost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.1)10.010.6+0.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W9Isaiah LikelyTE BALBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.0)4.79.0+4.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W9Charlie KolarTE BALBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.0)1.910.3+8.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W9Skyy MooreWR SFBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.3)1.23.1+1.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W9Quentin JohnstonWR LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1)11.615.3+3.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W9Michael WilsonWR ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1)8.09.1+1.1✅Backtest ·
2025 W9Parker WashingtonWR JAXBoost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected +0.1)9.817.0+7.2✅Backtest ·
2025 W9Andrei IosivasWR CINBoost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1)5.718.0+12.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W9Chris BrooksRB GBBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1)2.54.4+1.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W9Mitchell TinsleyWR CINBoost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1)1.03.7+2.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W9Josh DownsWR INDBoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1)11.117.7+6.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W9Elijah HigginsTE ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.0)2.46.0+3.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W9Rashee RiceWR KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1)16.418.6+2.2✅Backtest ·
2025 W9Luke MusgraveTE GBBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.0)2.16.4+4.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W9Brock BowersTE LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1)10.043.3+33.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W9Terrell JenningsRB NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1)4.111.4+7.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W9Theo JohnsonTE NYGBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.0)9.311.7+2.4✅Backtest ·
2025 W9Marvin Harrison Jr.WR ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1)11.622.6+11.0✅Backtest ·
2025 W9Michael Penix Jr.QB ATLBoost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected −0.3)13.122.7+9.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W9J.J. McCarthyQB MINBoost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected −0.3)13.818.9+5.1✅Backtest ·
2025 W9Ashton JeantyRB LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1)13.919.9+6.0✅Backtest ·
2025 W9Oronde Gadsden IITE LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.0)10.911.8+0.8✅Backtest ·
2025 W9Jaxson DartQB NYGBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected −0.3)17.827.2+9.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W9Tre HarrisWR LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1)3.23.8+0.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W8Joe FlaccoQB CINBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected −0.3)18.124.3+6.2✅Backtest ·
2025 W8Mack HollinsWR NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1)5.315.9+10.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W8David NjokuTE CLEBoost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.0)6.913.7+6.8✅Backtest ·
2025 W8Dallas GoedertTE PHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.0)13.717.8+4.1✅Backtest ·
2025 W8Braxton BerriosWR HOUBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1)4.38.8+4.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W8Daniel JonesQB INDBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected −0.3)21.223.2+2.0✅Backtest ·
2025 W8Juwan JohnsonTE NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.0)8.610.3+1.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W8Tua TagovailoaQB MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected −0.3)11.924.2+12.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W8Jonathan TaylorRB INDBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1)25.237.4+12.2✅Backtest ·
2025 W8Michael PittmanWR INDBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1)14.823.5+8.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W8Jalen HurtsQB PHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected −0.6)20.525.4+4.8✅Backtest ·
2025 W8Jaylen WaddleWR MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1)13.520.9+7.4✅Backtest ·
2025 W8Kyle PittsTE ATLBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.0)10.514.9+4.4✅Backtest ·
2025 W8James CookRB BUFBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1)17.433.6+16.2✅Backtest ·
2025 W8Jahan DotsonWR PHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1)6.611.0+4.4✅Backtest ·
2025 W8Kayshon BoutteWR NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1)9.316.5+7.2✅Backtest ·
2025 W8Xavier HutchinsonWR HOUBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1)8.717.9+9.2✅Backtest ·
2025 W8Jared WayneWR HOUBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1)1.74.0+2.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W8Josh DownsWR INDBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1)11.012.9+1.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W8De'Von AchaneRB MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1)16.320.1+3.8✅Backtest ·
2025 W8C.J. StroudQB HOUBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected −0.6)16.521.7+5.2✅Backtest ·
2025 W8Bo NixQB DENBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected −0.8)21.223.8+2.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W8Drake MayeQB NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected −0.3)18.426.3+7.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W8Troy FranklinWR DENBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1)11.526.9+15.4✅Backtest ·
2025 W8Jaylen WrightRB MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1)1.43.8+2.4✅Backtest ·
2025 W8Malik WashingtonWR MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1)7.313.6+6.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W8Jayden HigginsWR HOUBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1)6.113.4+7.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W8Pat BryantWR DENBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1)2.812.0+9.2✅Backtest ·
2025 W8Jaylin NoelWR HOUBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1)7.411.3+3.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W8Jackson HawesTE BUFBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.0)1.73.5+1.8✅Backtest ·
2025 W8Ollie Gordon IIRB MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1)2.913.6+10.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W8Devin NealRB NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1)1.14.1+3.0✅Backtest ·
2025 W8Ben YurosekTE MINBoost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.0)0.11.5+1.4✅Backtest ·
2025 W8Woody MarksRB HOUBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1)9.715.1+5.4✅Backtest ·
2025 W8Harold Fannin Jr.TE CLEBoost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.0)8.918.4+9.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W8Cam WardQB TENBoost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected −0.3)10.412.8+2.4✅Backtest ·
2025 W8Dillon GabrielQB CLEBoost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected −0.3)10.311.5+1.2✅Backtest ·
2025 W8Chimere DikeWR TENBoost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.1)6.616.4+9.8✅Backtest ·
2025 W7Matthew StaffordQB LARBoost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected −0.3)17.127.4+10.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W7Keenan AllenWR LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.3)14.428.9+14.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W7Davante AdamsWR LARBoost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1)23.726.5+2.8✅Backtest ·
2025 W7Austin HooperTE NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.0)4.09.1+5.1✅Backtest ·
2025 W7Robbie ChosenWR WASBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.3)3.97.6+3.8✅Backtest ·
2025 W7Jeremy McNicholsRB WASBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1)5.26.5+1.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W7Daniel JonesQB INDBoost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected −0.3)15.822.2+6.4✅Backtest ·
2025 W7Juwan JohnsonTE NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.0)7.112.9+5.8✅Backtest ·
2025 W7Nick Westbrook-IkhineWR MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1)2.14.6+2.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W7Jonathan TaylorRB INDBoost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.1)19.034.2+15.2✅Backtest ·
2025 W7Colby ParkinsonTE LARBoost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.0)3.47.7+4.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W7Justin HerbertQB LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected −0.6)20.027.9+7.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W7Dee EskridgeWR MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1)1.16.5+5.4✅Backtest ·
2025 W7Rhamondre StevensonRB NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1)12.116.8+4.8✅Backtest ·
2025 W7Kyle PittsTE ATLBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.0)9.113.2+4.1✅Backtest ·
2025 W7Jaylen WarrenRB PITBoost (Starters out on defense vs CIN, expected +0.1)15.419.8+4.4✅Backtest ·
2025 W7Cade OttonTE TBBoost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.0)9.213.5+4.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W7Xavier SmithWR LARBoost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1)1.23.5+2.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W7Chris Rodriguez Jr.RB WASBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1)4.07.2+3.2✅Backtest ·
2025 W7Blake CorumRB LARBoost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1)4.55.3+0.8✅Backtest ·
2025 W7Isaiah DavisRB NYJBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1)4.75.2+0.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W7Malik WashingtonWR MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1)6.38.0+1.8✅Backtest ·
2025 W7Ladd McConkeyWR LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.3)15.015.7+0.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W7Brashard SmithRB KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected +0.3)4.013.1+9.1✅Backtest ·
2025 W7Tyler WarrenTE INDBoost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.1)13.016.9+3.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W7Mitchell EvansTE CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.0)2.24.4+2.2✅Backtest ·
2025 W7Tez JohnsonWR TBBoost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.4)6.115.8+9.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W7Gunnar HelmTE TENBoost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.0)4.27.6+3.4✅Backtest ·
2025 W7Konata MumpfieldWR LARBoost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1)1.37.5+6.2✅Backtest ·
2025 W7Tre HarrisWR LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.3)3.54.3+0.8✅Backtest ·

NewerPage 6 of 15 · 1,452 callsOlder

How this works

Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.

Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.

Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse