Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR C · TE myth
Starters out on defense: every call
Each missing regular defensive starter (CB for WRs, S/LB for TEs, DL/LB for RBs, DB for QBs) adds points to the opposing player.
2024 backtest
716–1049–204
40.6% vs 39.1% baseline
2025 backtest
681–991–185
40.7% vs 39.1% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
55–83–12
39.9% vs 39.4% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB | 349–510–87 | 40.6% | 38.2% |
| TE | 371–558–194 | 39.9% | 39.1% |
| QB | 198–194–19 | 50.5% | 49.6% |
| WR | 479–778–89 | 38.1% | 36.3% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 716–1049–204 | 40.6% | 39.1% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 651–959–183 | 40.4% | 38.7% |
| 0.5–1 | 29–31–2 | 48.3% | 48.3% |
| 1+ | 1–1 | 50.0% | 49.6% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 W10 | Jack WestoverTE NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.0) | 0.2 | 0.0 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Cade StoverTE HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1) | 2.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Jaheim BellTE NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.0) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Brenden BatesTE CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Hayden RucciTE MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1) | 0.2 | 0.0 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Colson YankoffTE WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.0) | 0.1 | 0.0 | −0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Tip ReimanTE ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.0) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Devin CulpTE TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.0) | 0.7 | 0.0 | −0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | AJ BarnerTE SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.0) | 6.8 | 0.3 | −6.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Theo JohnsonTE NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.0) | 8.4 | 14.5 | +6.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Ben SinnottTE WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.0) | 0.6 | 7.4 | +6.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Nick KallerupTE SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.0) | 0.4 | 0.0 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Colston LovelandTE CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.0) | 7.0 | 9.5 | +2.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Oronde Gadsden IITE LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.0) | 12.1 | 4.3 | −7.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Jackson HawesTE BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1) | 2.9 | 9.6 | +6.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Thomas Fidone IITE NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.0) | 0.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Harold Fannin Jr.TE CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1) | 8.7 | 8.4 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Elijah ArroyoTE SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.0) | 5.5 | 1.5 | −4.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Travis KelceTE KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1) | 11.1 | 12.6 | +1.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Chris ManhertzTE NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.0) | 0.3 | 0.0 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Darren WallerTE MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.0) | 6.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Eric TomlinsonTE LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.0) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Austin HooperTE NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.0) | 4.4 | 3.0 | −1.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Nick VannettTE MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.0) | 0.5 | 0.0 | −0.5 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Hunter HenryTE NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.0) | 9.7 | 9.1 | −0.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Mo Alie-CoxTE IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1) | 1.9 | 0.0 | −1.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | George KittleTE SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.0) | 9.4 | 6.9 | −2.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Pharaoh BrownTE ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.0) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Robert TonyanTE KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1) | 0.1 | 0.0 | −0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Will DisslyTE LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.0) | 3.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Tyler ConklinTE LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.0) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Ian ThomasTE LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1) | 1.1 | 1.9 | +0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Mark AndrewsTE BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.0) | 10.9 | 16.6 | +5.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Hayden HurstTE LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.0) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | T.J. HockensonTE MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.0) | 8.6 | 9.1 | +0.5 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Joseph FortsonTE KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Mitchell WilcoxTE NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.0) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Josiah DeguaraTE ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.0) | 0.3 | 0.0 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Albert OkwuegbunamTE LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1) | 5.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Charlie WoernerTE ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.0) | 1.0 | 0.0 | −1.0 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Noah GrayTE KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1) | 3.8 | 0.0 | −3.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Zach DavidsonTE NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.0) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Feleipe FranksTE ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.0) | 0.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Luke FarrellTE SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.0) | 1.6 | 1.9 | +0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Kyle PittsTE ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.0) | 10.9 | 7.8 | −3.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Jake TongesTE SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.0) | 5.1 | 0.0 | −5.1 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Greg DulcichTE MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.0) | 0.6 | 9.9 | +9.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Teagan QuitorianoTE ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.0) | 0.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Andrew OgletreeTE IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1) | 0.7 | 0.0 | −0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | John FitzPatrickTE GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.0) | 1.0 | 0.0 | −1.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Nick MuseTE MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.0) | 0.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Tanner ConnerTE MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.0) | 4.2 | 0.0 | −4.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Peyton HendershotTE KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Tucker FiskTE LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.0) | 0.7 | 2.2 | +1.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Trey McBrideTE ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.0) | 16.1 | 16.5 | +0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Chig OkonkwoTE TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.0) | 7.2 | 3.0 | −4.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Isaiah LikelyTE BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.0) | 4.7 | 9.0 | +4.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Charlie KolarTE BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.0) | 1.9 | 10.3 | +8.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Daniel BellingerTE NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.0) | 3.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Thomas OdukoyaTE TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.0) | 0.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Will MalloryTE IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Travis VokolekTE ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.0) | 0.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Josh WhyleTE GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.0) | 2.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Brayden WillisTE SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.0) | 0.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Ben SimsTE MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.0) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | John ShenkerTE LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Tucker KraftTE GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.0) | 11.8 | 4.0 | −7.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Elijah HigginsTE ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.0) | 2.4 | 6.0 | +3.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Michael MayerTE LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1) | 5.9 | 5.6 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Luke MusgraveTE GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.0) | 2.1 | 6.4 | +4.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Jack WestoverTE NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.0) | 0.2 | 0.0 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Baylor CuppTE KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Brock BowersTE LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1) | 10.0 | 43.3 | +33.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Jaheim BellTE NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.0) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Hayden RucciTE MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.0) | 0.4 | 0.0 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | David Martin-RobinsonTE TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.0) | 0.5 | 0.0 | −0.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Tip ReimanTE ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.0) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Jared WileyTE KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Theo JohnsonTE NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.0) | 9.3 | 11.7 | +2.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Tyler WarrenTE IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1) | 12.5 | 7.6 | −4.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Oronde Gadsden IITE LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.0) | 10.9 | 11.8 | +0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Thomas Fidone IITE NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.0) | 0.3 | 0.0 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Carter RunyonTE LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Ben YurosekTE MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.0) | 0.9 | 0.0 | −0.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Gunnar HelmTE TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.0) | 5.0 | 2.5 | −2.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Marcedes LewisTE DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Jordan MatthewsTE CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Darren WallerTE MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.0) | 6.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | C.J. UzomahTE PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.0) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Geoff SwaimTE CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.0) | 0.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Nick VannettTE MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.0) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Evan EngramTE DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1) | 8.5 | 7.6 | −0.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | David NjokuTE CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.0) | 6.9 | 13.7 | +6.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Gerald EverettTE CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.0) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Dallas GoedertTE PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.0) | 13.7 | 17.8 | +4.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Jordan AkinsTE CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.0) | 3.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Dalton SchultzTE HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1) | 11.8 | 4.4 | −7.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Durham SmytheTE CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.0) | 0.6 | 0.0 | −0.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Irv SmithTE HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Foster MoreauTE NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.0) | 2.6 | 0.0 | −2.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse