Edgehalla

Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR C · TE myth

Starters out on defense: every call

Each missing regular defensive starter (CB for WRs, S/LB for TEs, DL/LB for RBs, DB for QBs) adds points to the opposing player.

2024 backtest

716–1049–204

40.6% vs 39.1% baseline

Win rate 40.6% (95% 38.3%–42.9%) vs baseline 39.1%

2025 backtest

681–991–185

40.7% vs 39.1% baseline

Win rate 40.7% (95% 38.4%–43.1%) vs baseline 39.1%

2026 live (from Week 5)

–

first live calls this week

2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)

55–83–12

39.9% vs 39.4% baseline

Win rate 39.9% (95% 32.1%–48.2%) vs baseline 39.4%

2024–25 by position and by expected effect

PositionW–L–PWin %Baseline
RB349–510–8740.6%38.2%
TE371–558–19439.9%39.1%
QB198–194–1950.5%49.6%
WR479–778–8938.1%36.3%
Expected effect (PPR)W–L–PWin %Baseline
flag716–1049–20440.6%39.1%
0.25–0.5651–959–18340.4%38.7%
0.5–129–31–248.3%48.3%
1+1–150.0%49.6%

Call log

SeasonAll202420252026
SourceAllBacktestBacktest (after the fact)Live
PositionAllQBRBWRTE
ResultAll✅ Win❌ LossPushVoidNot graded
Starters out on defense calls, newest first
WeekPlayerCallProjActualMarginResultSource · made
2025 W14Amar JohnsonRB LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.1)2.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W14Kalel MullingsRB TENBoost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1)0.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W14Tahj BrooksRB CINBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.3)1.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W14Arian SmithWR NYJBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1)1.60.0−1.6voidBacktest ·
2025 W14Tory HortonWR SEABoost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1)4.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W14Ricky White IIIWR SEABoost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1)0.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W14Matthew GoldenWR GBBoost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1)6.50.0−6.5voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Andy DaltonQB CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs LAR, expected −0.3)10.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Cordarrelle PattersonRB PITBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1)2.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Nelson AgholorWR BALBoost (Starters out on defense vs CIN, expected +0.1)5.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13MyCole PruittTE PITBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.0)0.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13C.J. UzomahTE PHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1)0.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Geoff SwaimTE CLEBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.0)0.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Nick VannettTE LARBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1)1.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Alex EricksonWR NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.3)1.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Tyler HigbeeTE LARBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1)7.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Zach PascalWR ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1)1.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Tim PatrickWR JAXBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1)3.22.1−1.1voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Jamal AgnewWR ATLBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1)1.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Zay JonesWR ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1)4.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Gerald EverettTE CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.0)0.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13D'Onta ForemanRB CLEBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.3)2.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Josh ReynoldsWR NYJBoost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1)6.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Jamaal WilliamsRB NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1)4.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Anthony MillerWR BALBoost (Starters out on defense vs CIN, expected +0.1)2.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Jordan AkinsTE CLEBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.0)2.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Nyheim HinesRB NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1)2.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Trent SherfieldWR ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1)1.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13KhaDarel HodgeWR ATLBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1)2.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Dante PettisWR NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1)3.90.0−3.9voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Stephen CarlsonTE CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.0)0.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Khari BlasingameRB PHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.3)1.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Trayveon WilliamsRB CLEBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.3)1.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Craig ReynoldsRB DETBoost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.1)1.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13D'Ernest JohnsonRB NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.3)1.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13JaMycal HastyRB NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.3)1.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Andre BaccelliaWR ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1)1.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13AJ DillonRB PHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.3)2.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Antonio GibsonRB NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.3)4.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Joshua KelleyRB TENBoost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.3)1.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13DeeJay DallasRB JAXBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1)1.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Tyler JohnsonWR NYJBoost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1)3.10.0−3.1voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Stephen SullivanTE CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs LAR, expected +0.0)1.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Chris BlairWR ATLBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1)2.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Tim JonesWR JAXBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1)0.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Shane ZylstraTE DETBoost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.0)0.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Dyami BrownWR JAXBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1)5.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Tylan WallaceWR BALBoost (Starters out on defense vs CIN, expected +0.1)2.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Simi FehokoWR ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1)0.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Jermar JeffersonRB DETBoost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.1)2.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Jack StollTE NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.0)1.30.0−1.3voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Brandon SmithWR NYJBoost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1)0.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Tutu AtwellWR LARBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1)3.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Kylen GransonTE PHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1)0.80.0−0.8voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Michael BandyWR DENBoost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected +0.3)1.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Trey SermonRB PITBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1)1.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Hunter LongTE JAXBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.0)2.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Britain CoveyWR PHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1)2.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Kevin Austin Jr.WR NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1)3.60.0−3.6voidBacktest ·
2025 W13James MitchellTE CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs LAR, expected +0.0)1.10.0−1.1voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Connor HeywardRB PITBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1)1.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Zaire Mitchell-PadenTE NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.0)0.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Ronnie RiversRB LARBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1)2.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Julius ChestnutRB TENBoost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.3)1.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Garrett WilsonWR NYJBoost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1)10.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Tyrion Davis-PriceRB PHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.3)1.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Pierre StrongRB CLEBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.3)1.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Jason BrownleeWR KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1)1.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13E.J. JenkinsTE PHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1)0.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Nikko RemigioWR KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1)1.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Kendre MillerRB NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1)7.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Tank BigsbyRB PHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.3)4.10.0−4.1voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Jalen BrooksWR ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1)2.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Ronnie BellWR NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1)2.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Elijah CooksWR JAXBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1)1.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Jordan MimsRB NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1)5.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Jacob SaylorsRB DETBoost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.1)1.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Sam LaPortaTE DETBoost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.0)12.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Johnny WilsonWR PHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1)2.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Sione VakiRB DETBoost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.1)1.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Audric EstiméRB NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1)3.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Keilan RobinsonRB JAXBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1)1.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Casey WashingtonWR ATLBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1)3.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Jaheim BellTE NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1)0.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Treyton WelchTE NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.0)0.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Joshua CephusWR JAXBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1)1.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Dallin HolkerTE NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.0)0.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Jacob KibodiRB CLEBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.3)1.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Cody SchraderRB LARBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1)1.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Ainias SmithWR PHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1)2.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Terrell JenningsRB NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.3)2.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Javon BakerWR NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.3)1.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Ja'Lynn PolkWR NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.3)2.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Moliki MatavaoTE NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.0)0.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Jackson MeeksTE DETBoost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.0)0.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Raheim SandersRB CLEBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.3)1.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Arian SmithWR NYJBoost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1)1.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Jalen RoyalsWR KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1)0.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W12Cordarrelle PattersonRB PITBoost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.4)2.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W12Allen RobinsonWR DETBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1)1.7––voidBacktest ·

NewerPage 7 of 30 · 2,909 callsOlder

How this works

Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.

Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.

Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse