Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR C · TE myth
Starters out on defense: every call
Each missing regular defensive starter (CB for WRs, S/LB for TEs, DL/LB for RBs, DB for QBs) adds points to the opposing player.
2024 backtest
716–1049–204
40.6% vs 39.1% baseline
2025 backtest
681–991–185
40.7% vs 39.1% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
55–83–12
39.9% vs 39.4% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB | 349–510–87 | 40.6% | 38.2% |
| TE | 371–558–194 | 39.9% | 39.1% |
| QB | 198–194–19 | 50.5% | 49.6% |
| WR | 479–778–89 | 38.1% | 36.3% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 716–1049–204 | 40.6% | 39.1% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 651–959–183 | 40.4% | 38.7% |
| 0.5–1 | 29–31–2 | 48.3% | 48.3% |
| 1+ | 1–1 | 50.0% | 49.6% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 W8 | Jeff WilsonRB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Mike BooneRB CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.3) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Nick ChubbRB HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1) | 8.6 | 8.9 | +0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Alec IngoldRB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1) | 2.1 | 1.0 | −1.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Ty JohnsonRB BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1) | 4.7 | 0.6 | −4.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Travis HomerRB CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.1) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Jakob JohnsonRB HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | J.J. TaylorRB HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Rico DowdleRB CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.3) | 9.3 | 5.4 | −3.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Reggie GilliamRB BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1) | 0.6 | 0.0 | −0.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Jonathan TaylorRB IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1) | 25.2 | 37.4 | +12.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | D'Andre SwiftRB CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.1) | 14.6 | 15.1 | +0.5 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Darrynton EvansRB CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.1) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Chuba HubbardRB CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.3) | 11.3 | 9.4 | −1.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Tyler GoodsonRB IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1) | 2.3 | 0.2 | −2.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | James CookRB BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1) | 17.4 | 33.6 | +16.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Raheem BlackshearRB CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.3) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Evan HullRB NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Kendre MillerRB NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1) | 4.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Jordan MimsRB NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1) | 3.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | De'Von AchaneRB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1) | 16.3 | 20.1 | +3.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Jonathon BrooksRB CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.3) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Audric EstiméRB NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | British BrooksRB HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1) | 0.9 | 0.0 | −0.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Jaylen WrightRB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1) | 1.4 | 3.8 | +2.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Ray DavisRB BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1) | 3.6 | 1.6 | −2.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | DJ GiddensRB IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Ollie Gordon IIRB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1) | 2.9 | 13.6 | +10.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Devin NealRB NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1) | 1.1 | 4.1 | +3.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Kyle MonangaiRB CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.1) | 7.8 | 2.4 | −5.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Ulysses Bentley IVRB IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Woody MarksRB HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1) | 9.7 | 15.1 | +5.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Trevor EtienneRB CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.3) | 1.3 | 1.6 | +0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Cordarrelle PattersonRB PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN, expected +0.1) | 2.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Ameer AbdullahRB IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.1) | 4.8 | 3.7 | −1.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Austin EkelerRB WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1) | 12.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Alvin KamaraRB NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1) | 14.0 | 5.9 | −8.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Kareem HuntRB KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected +0.3) | 8.6 | 1.8 | −6.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Jamaal WilliamsRB NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1) | 2.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Jeremy McNicholsRB WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1) | 5.2 | 6.5 | +1.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Saquon BarkleyRB PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN, expected +0.1) | 16.3 | 5.2 | −11.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Andrew BeckRB NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1) | 1.4 | 0.0 | −1.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Khari BlasingameRB PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN, expected +0.1) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | JaMycal HastyRB NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Jonathan WardRB PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN, expected +0.1) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Jonathan TaylorRB IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.1) | 19.0 | 34.2 | +15.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | AJ DillonRB PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN, expected +0.1) | 2.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Antonio GibsonRB NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1) | 4.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Clyde Edwards-HelaireRB KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected +0.3) | 3.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Kene NwangwuRB NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1) | 1.3 | 0.0 | −1.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Rhamondre StevensonRB NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1) | 12.1 | 16.8 | +4.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Khalil HerbertRB NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1) | 2.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Kenny GainwellRB PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN, expected +0.1) | 11.3 | 3.5 | −7.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Avery WilliamsRB ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Trey SermonRB PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN, expected +0.1) | 2.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Isiah PachecoRB KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected +0.3) | 12.1 | 12.4 | +0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Jaylen WarrenRB PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN, expected +0.1) | 15.4 | 19.8 | +4.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Dameon PierceRB KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected +0.3) | 2.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Tyler AllgeierRB ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1) | 6.6 | 1.6 | −5.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Connor HeywardRB PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN, expected +0.1) | 1.4 | 0.0 | −1.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Ronnie RiversRB LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1) | 6.3 | 0.0 | −6.3 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Aaron ShampklinRB PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN, expected +0.1) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Tyrion Davis-PriceRB PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN, expected +0.1) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Kyren WilliamsRB LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1) | 19.3 | 8.5 | −10.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Breece HallRB NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1) | 16.7 | 7.2 | −9.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Evan HullRB NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Ben VanSumerenRB PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN, expected +0.1) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Bijan RobinsonRB ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1) | 21.7 | 21.2 | −0.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Kendre MillerRB NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1) | 5.1 | 0.7 | −4.4 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Tank BigsbyRB PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN, expected +0.1) | 4.8 | 2.0 | −2.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Chris Rodriguez Jr.RB WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1) | 4.0 | 7.2 | +3.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Jordan MimsRB NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1) | 3.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Carson SteeleRB KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected +0.3) | 2.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Audric EstiméRB NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Jase McClellanRB ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1) | 2.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Cody SchraderRB LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Blake CorumRB LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1) | 4.5 | 5.3 | +0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Will ShipleyRB PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN, expected +0.1) | 2.1 | 1.7 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Terrell JenningsRB NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1) | 2.9 | 1.8 | −1.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Braelon AllenRB NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1) | 4.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Isaiah DavisRB NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1) | 4.7 | 5.2 | +0.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Brashard SmithRB KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected +0.3) | 4.0 | 13.1 | +9.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Kaleb JohnsonRB PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN, expected +0.1) | 2.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | DJ GiddensRB IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.1) | 2.1 | 0.0 | −2.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Devin NealRB NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1) | 1.1 | 0.1 | −1.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Jacory Croskey-MerrittRB WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1) | 12.4 | 4.2 | −8.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Ulysses Bentley IVRB IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.1) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Nate CarterRB ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | TreVeyon HendersonRB NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1) | 8.2 | 0.5 | −7.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Derrick HenryRB BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR, expected +0.1) | 13.5 | 14.0 | +0.5 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Samaje PerineRB CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.1) | 2.6 | 5.2 | +2.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Jeff WilsonRB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.1) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Gus EdwardsRB LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1) | 5.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Mike BooneRB CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1) | 3.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Justice HillRB BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR, expected +0.1) | 7.2 | 9.4 | +2.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Alec IngoldRB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.1) | 2.3 | 3.5 | +1.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Devin SingletaryRB NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.3) | 3.2 | 1.0 | −2.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Tony PollardRB TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected +0.1) | 11.4 | 6.7 | −4.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Trayveon WilliamsRB LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Rico DowdleRB CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1) | 14.2 | 33.9 | +19.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse