Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR C · TE myth
Starters out on defense: every call
Each missing regular defensive starter (CB for WRs, S/LB for TEs, DL/LB for RBs, DB for QBs) adds points to the opposing player.
2024 backtest
716–1049–204
40.6% vs 39.1% baseline
2025 backtest
681–991–185
40.7% vs 39.1% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
55–83–12
39.9% vs 39.4% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB | 349–510–87 | 40.6% | 38.2% |
| TE | 371–558–194 | 39.9% | 39.1% |
| QB | 198–194–19 | 50.5% | 49.6% |
| WR | 479–778–89 | 38.1% | 36.3% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 716–1049–204 | 40.6% | 39.1% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 651–959–183 | 40.4% | 38.7% |
| 0.5–1 | 29–31–2 | 48.3% | 48.3% |
| 1+ | 1–1 | 50.0% | 49.6% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 W6 | Zack MossRB CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.1) | 5.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Joshua KelleyRB TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected +0.1) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | DeeJay DallasRB CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1) | 1.6 | 0.0 | −1.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Najee HarrisRB LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1) | 4.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Avery WilliamsRB ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Tyler AllgeierRB ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1) | 6.5 | 10.8 | +4.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Raheem BlackshearRB CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Ronnie RiversRB LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.1) | 6.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Julius ChestnutRB TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected +0.1) | 1.5 | 0.0 | −1.5 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Hassan HaskinsRB LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1) | 1.6 | 3.3 | +1.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Kyren WilliamsRB LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.1) | 19.8 | 16.7 | −3.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Eric GrayRB NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.3) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Keaton MitchellRB BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR, expected +0.1) | 2.5 | 0.0 | −2.5 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Bijan RobinsonRB ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1) | 20.3 | 35.8 | +15.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Chase BrownRB CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.1) | 11.9 | 8.9 | −3.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Scott MatlockRB LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Tyjae SpearsRB TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected +0.1) | 5.3 | 9.0 | +3.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | De'Von AchaneRB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.1) | 17.1 | 31.0 | +13.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Dante MillerRB NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.3) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Kendall MiltonRB CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.1) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Jonathon BrooksRB CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1) | 2.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Tyrone Tracy Jr.RB NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.3) | 7.4 | 0.6 | −6.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Kimani VidalRB LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1) | 2.8 | 22.8 | +20.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Jase McClellanRB ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1) | 2.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Cody SchraderRB LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.1) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Blake CorumRB LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.1) | 4.7 | 2.3 | −2.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Rasheen AliRB BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR, expected +0.1) | 1.1 | 0.0 | −1.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Jaylen WrightRB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.1) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Ollie Gordon IIRB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.1) | 3.0 | 1.2 | −1.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Tahj BrooksRB CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.1) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Nate CarterRB ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Trevor EtienneRB CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1) | 3.3 | 1.7 | −1.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Omarion HamptonRB LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1) | 17.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Cam SkatteboRB NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.3) | 13.3 | 31.0 | +17.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Michael BurtonRB DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.1) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Ameer AbdullahRB IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected +0.1) | 7.9 | 6.6 | −1.3 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Ezekiel ElliottRB DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1) | 3.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Dare OgunbowaleRB HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.1) | 2.5 | 0.0 | −2.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Dalvin CookRB DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1) | 2.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Joe MixonRB HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.1) | 11.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Kareem HuntRB KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1) | 8.0 | 18.7 | +10.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Nick ChubbRB HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.1) | 9.5 | 12.1 | +2.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Miles SandersRB DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1) | 6.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Ty JohnsonRB BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.1) | 4.9 | 1.0 | −3.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Jakob JohnsonRB HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.1) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | JaMycal HastyRB NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | J.J. TaylorRB HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.1) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | J.K. DobbinsRB DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.1) | 12.4 | 15.4 | +3.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Reggie GilliamRB BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.1) | 0.7 | 0.0 | −0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Jonathan TaylorRB IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected +0.1) | 23.2 | 31.6 | +8.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Antonio GibsonRB NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1) | 4.1 | 3.6 | −0.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Clyde Edwards-HelaireRB KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1) | 3.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Adam PrenticeRB DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.1) | 0.8 | 0.8 | +0.0 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Rhamondre StevensonRB NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1) | 10.8 | 14.7 | +4.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Javonte WilliamsRB DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1) | 19.0 | 26.9 | +7.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Tyler BadieRB DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.1) | 3.1 | 2.6 | −0.5 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Isiah PachecoRB KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1) | 10.4 | 8.6 | −1.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | James CookRB BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.1) | 19.3 | 4.9 | −14.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Rachaad WhiteRB TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.1) | 16.0 | 23.1 | +7.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Dameon PierceRB HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.1) | 3.2 | 2.1 | −1.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Ronnie RiversRB LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1) | 6.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Kyren WilliamsRB LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1) | 18.8 | 31.1 | +12.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Deuce VaughnRB DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Hunter LuepkeRB DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1) | 1.3 | 2.0 | +0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Jaleel McLaughlinRB DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.1) | 4.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Sean TuckerRB TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.1) | 4.5 | 2.9 | −1.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Carson SteeleRB KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Blake WatsonRB DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.1) | 2.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | British BrooksRB HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.1) | 0.9 | 1.5 | +0.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Cody SchraderRB LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Blake CorumRB LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1) | 4.8 | 1.3 | −3.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Terrell JenningsRB NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1) | 2.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Ray DavisRB BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.1) | 3.8 | 0.1 | −3.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Brashard SmithRB KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1) | 3.1 | 6.6 | +3.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | DJ GiddensRB IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected +0.1) | 2.8 | 2.2 | −0.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Ulysses Bentley IVRB IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected +0.1) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Woody MarksRB HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.1) | 6.9 | 2.4 | −4.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | RJ HarveyRB DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.1) | 7.8 | 6.0 | −1.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | TreVeyon HendersonRB NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1) | 7.2 | 4.7 | −2.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Kareem HuntRB KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.1) | 7.6 | 5.7 | −1.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Jeff WilsonRB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Alec IngoldRB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1) | 3.0 | 0.0 | −3.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | JaMycal HastyRB NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.3) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Antonio GibsonRB NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.3) | 4.7 | 8.7 | +4.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Clyde Edwards-HelaireRB KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.1) | 3.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Rhamondre StevensonRB NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.3) | 12.4 | 5.1 | −7.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Travis EtienneRB JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1) | 14.9 | 19.5 | +4.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Isiah PachecoRB KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.1) | 9.9 | 12.8 | +2.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Rachaad WhiteRB TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.1) | 7.8 | 8.6 | +0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Sean TuckerRB TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.1) | 2.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | De'Von AchaneRB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1) | 19.8 | 17.1 | −2.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Carson SteeleRB KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.1) | 2.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Bucky IrvingRB TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.1) | 15.9 | 25.5 | +9.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Keilan RobinsonRB JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Terrell JenningsRB NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.3) | 2.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Jaylen WrightRB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1) | 2.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Brashard SmithRB KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.1) | 1.8 | 6.6 | +4.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Ollie Gordon IIRB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1) | 3.9 | 1.0 | −2.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | LeQuint Allen Jr.RB JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1) | 3.4 | 1.7 | −1.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Bhayshul TutenRB JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1) | 4.4 | 3.2 | −1.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse