Edgehalla

Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR C · TE myth

Starters out on defense: every call

Each missing regular defensive starter (CB for WRs, S/LB for TEs, DL/LB for RBs, DB for QBs) adds points to the opposing player.

2024 backtest

716–1049–204

40.6% vs 39.1% baseline

Win rate 40.6% (95% 38.3%–42.9%) vs baseline 39.1%

2025 backtest

681–991–185

40.7% vs 39.1% baseline

Win rate 40.7% (95% 38.4%–43.1%) vs baseline 39.1%

2026 live (from Week 5)

–

first live calls this week

2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)

55–83–12

39.9% vs 39.4% baseline

Win rate 39.9% (95% 32.1%–48.2%) vs baseline 39.4%

2024–25 by position and by expected effect

PositionW–L–PWin %Baseline
RB349–510–8740.6%38.2%
TE371–558–19439.9%39.1%
QB198–194–1950.5%49.6%
WR479–778–8938.1%36.3%
Expected effect (PPR)W–L–PWin %Baseline
flag716–1049–20440.6%39.1%
0.25–0.5651–959–18340.4%38.7%
0.5–129–31–248.3%48.3%
1+1–150.0%49.6%

Call log

SeasonAll202420252026
SourceAllBacktestBacktest (after the fact)Live
PositionAllQBRBWRTE
ResultAll✅ Win❌ LossPushVoidNot graded
Starters out on defense calls, newest first
WeekPlayerCallProjActualMarginResultSource · made
2025 W7Terrance FergusonTE LARBoost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.0)1.010.1+9.1✅Backtest ·
2025 W7Elijah ArroyoTE SEABoost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected +0.0)3.96.2+2.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W6Marcedes LewisTE DENBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.0)0.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Jordan MatthewsTE CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1)0.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Chris ManhertzTE NYGBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.0)0.40.0−0.4pushBacktest ·
2025 W6Darren WallerTE MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.0)8.19.2+1.1✅Backtest ·
2025 W6Eric TomlinsonTE LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.0)0.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Tyler HigbeeTE LARBoost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.0)6.314.0+7.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W6Johnny MundtTE JAXBoost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.0)1.82.4+0.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W6Evan EngramTE DENBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.0)7.59.9+2.4✅Backtest ·
2025 W6Will DisslyTE LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.0)6.03.8−2.2❌Backtest ·
2025 W6Tyler ConklinTE LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.0)3.30.0−3.3voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Mark AndrewsTE BALBoost (Starters out on defense vs LAR, expected +0.0)9.36.6−2.7❌Backtest ·
2025 W6Hayden HurstTE LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.0)1.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Foster MoreauTE NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.0)3.41.9−1.5❌Backtest ·
2025 W6Juwan JohnsonTE NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.0)8.41.5−7.0❌Backtest ·
2025 W6Colby ParkinsonTE LARBoost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.0)3.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Adam TrautmanTE DENBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.0)3.90.0−3.9❌Backtest ·
2025 W6Stephen SullivanTE CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1)1.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Quintin MorrisTE JAXBoost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.0)0.50.0−0.5voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Zach DavidsonTE NYGBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.0)0.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Jack StollTE NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.0)1.20.0−1.2❌Backtest ·
2025 W6Hunter LongTE JAXBoost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.0)2.83.9+1.1✅Backtest ·
2025 W6Tommy TrembleTE CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1)5.97.9+2.0✅Backtest ·
2025 W6Greg DulcichTE MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.0)0.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6James MitchellTE CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1)2.00.0−2.0❌Backtest ·
2025 W6Ko KieftTE TBBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.0)0.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Zaire Mitchell-PadenTE BALBoost (Starters out on defense vs LAR, expected +0.0)0.80.0−0.8❌Backtest ·
2025 W6Tanner ConnerTE MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.0)2.41.8−0.6voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Lucas KrullTE DENBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.0)2.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Tucker FiskTE LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.0)1.10.0−1.1❌Backtest ·
2025 W6Chig OkonkwoTE TENBoost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected +0.0)6.610.6+4.0✅Backtest ·
2025 W6Isaiah LikelyTE BALBoost (Starters out on defense vs LAR, expected +0.0)4.12.6−1.5❌Backtest ·
2025 W6Charlie KolarTE BALBoost (Starters out on defense vs LAR, expected +0.0)1.50.0−1.5❌Backtest ·
2025 W6Daniel BellingerTE NYGBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.0)2.50.0−2.5❌Backtest ·
2025 W6Cade OttonTE TBBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.0)8.110.1+2.0✅Backtest ·
2025 W6Thomas OdukoyaTE TENBoost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected +0.0)0.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Julian HillTE MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.0)3.56.1+2.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W6Nate AdkinsTE DENBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.0)1.910.3+8.4✅Backtest ·
2025 W6Brenton StrangeTE JAXBoost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.0)8.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Payne DurhamTE TBBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.0)1.50.0−1.5❌Backtest ·
2025 W6Davis AllenTE LARBoost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.0)2.51.7−0.8❌Backtest ·
2025 W6Ja'Tavion SandersTE CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1)4.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Treyton WelchTE NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.0)0.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Dallin HolkerTE NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.0)0.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6David Martin-RobinsonTE TENBoost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected +0.0)0.37.1+6.8✅Backtest ·
2025 W6Devin CulpTE TBBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.0)1.40.0−1.4❌Backtest ·
2025 W6Theo JohnsonTE NYGBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.0)7.24.7−2.5❌Backtest ·
2025 W6Mitchell EvansTE CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1)2.43.1+0.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W6Oronde Gadsden IITE LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.0)5.711.8+6.1✅Backtest ·
2025 W6Moliki MatavaoTE NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.0)0.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Gunnar HelmTE TENBoost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected +0.0)3.83.5−0.3pushBacktest ·
2025 W6Terrance FergusonTE LARBoost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.0)1.00.0−1.0❌Backtest ·
2025 W5Marcedes LewisTE DENBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.0)0.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W5Eric TomlinsonTE LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected +0.0)0.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W5Austin HooperTE NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.0)4.60.0−4.6❌Backtest ·
2025 W5Hunter HenryTE NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.0)9.86.6−3.2❌Backtest ·
2025 W5Mo Alie-CoxTE INDBoost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected +0.0)2.10.0−2.1❌Backtest ·
2025 W5Evan EngramTE DENBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.0)6.913.3+6.4✅Backtest ·
2025 W5Will DisslyTE LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected +0.0)5.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W5Tyler ConklinTE LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected +0.0)3.25.0+1.8✅Backtest ·
2025 W5Dalton SchultzTE HOUBoost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.1)8.711.0+2.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W5Mark AndrewsTE BALBoost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected +0.0)9.24.2−5.0❌Backtest ·
2025 W5Hayden HurstTE LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected +0.0)1.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W5Irv SmithTE HOUBoost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.1)0.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W5Dawson KnoxTE BUFBoost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.0)4.43.5−0.9❌Backtest ·
2025 W5Mitchell WilcoxTE NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.0)0.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W5Harrison BryantTE HOUBoost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.1)0.61.5+0.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W5Adam TrautmanTE DENBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.0)3.82.1−1.7❌Backtest ·
2025 W5Kenny YeboahTE NYJBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.0)1.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W5Andrew OgletreeTE INDBoost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected +0.0)0.90.0−0.9❌Backtest ·
2025 W5Ko KieftTE TBBoost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.0)0.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W5Zaire Mitchell-PadenTE BALBoost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected +0.0)0.51.3+0.8✅Backtest ·
2025 W5Stone SmarttTE NYJBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.0)1.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W5Tucker FiskTE LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected +0.0)1.20.0−1.2❌Backtest ·
2025 W5Jeremy RuckertTE NYJBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.0)2.46.8+4.4✅Backtest ·
2025 W5Isaiah LikelyTE BALBoost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected +0.0)4.12.2−1.9❌Backtest ·
2025 W5Jake FergusonTE DALBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.0)12.023.9+11.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W5Charlie KolarTE BALBoost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected +0.0)1.32.0+0.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W5Cade OttonTE TBBoost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.0)6.312.1+5.8✅Backtest ·
2025 W5Will MalloryTE INDBoost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected +0.0)1.40.0−1.4❌Backtest ·
2025 W5Zack KuntzTE NYJBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.0)0.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W5Luke SchoonmakerTE DALBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.0)2.61.3−1.3❌Backtest ·
2025 W5Princeton FantTE DALBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.0)0.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W5Nate AdkinsTE DENBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.0)2.00.0−2.0❌Backtest ·
2025 W5Dalton KincaidTE BUFBoost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.0)8.216.8+8.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W5Payne DurhamTE TBBoost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.0)1.40.0−1.4❌Backtest ·
2025 W5Jack WestoverTE NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.0)0.10.0−0.1pushBacktest ·
2025 W5Cade StoverTE HOUBoost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.1)3.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W5Jaheim BellTE NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.0)0.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W5Brenden BatesTE HOUBoost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.1)0.34.3+4.0✅Backtest ·
2025 W5Brevyn Spann-FordTE DALBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.0)1.00.0−1.0❌Backtest ·
2025 W5Devin CulpTE TBBoost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.0)2.00.0−2.0❌Backtest ·
2025 W5Tyler WarrenTE INDBoost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected +0.0)13.414.4+1.0✅Backtest ·
2025 W5Oronde Gadsden IITE LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected +0.0)6.12.4−3.7❌Backtest ·
2025 W5Jackson HawesTE BUFBoost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.0)1.90.0−1.9❌Backtest ·
2025 W5Mason TaylorTE NYJBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.0)8.517.7+9.2✅Backtest ·
2025 W4Darren WallerTE MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.0)7.017.7+10.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W4Austin HooperTE NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1)5.23.4−1.8❌Backtest ·
2025 W4Hunter HenryTE NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1)11.111.9+0.8✅Backtest ·

NewerPage 9 of 19 · 1,882 callsOlder

How this works

Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.

Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.

Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse