Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR C · TE myth
Starters out on defense: every call
Each missing regular defensive starter (CB for WRs, S/LB for TEs, DL/LB for RBs, DB for QBs) adds points to the opposing player.
2024 backtest
716–1049–204
40.6% vs 39.1% baseline
2025 backtest
681–991–185
40.7% vs 39.1% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
55–83–12
39.9% vs 39.4% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB | 349–510–87 | 40.6% | 38.2% |
| TE | 371–558–194 | 39.9% | 39.1% |
| QB | 198–194–19 | 50.5% | 49.6% |
| WR | 479–778–89 | 38.1% | 36.3% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 716–1049–204 | 40.6% | 39.1% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 651–959–183 | 40.4% | 38.7% |
| 0.5–1 | 29–31–2 | 48.3% | 48.3% |
| 1+ | 1–1 | 50.0% | 49.6% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 W8 | Durham SmytheTE CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.0) | 0.6 | 0.0 | −0.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Foster MoreauTE NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.0) | 2.6 | 0.0 | −2.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Ashton DulinWR IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1) | 2.3 | 0.2 | −2.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Alec IngoldRB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1) | 2.1 | 1.0 | −1.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | T.J. HockensonTE MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.0) | 8.9 | 4.6 | −4.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Ty JohnsonRB BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1) | 4.7 | 0.6 | −4.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Dawson KnoxTE BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.0) | 6.1 | 2.5 | −3.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | James ProcheWR TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.1) | 1.9 | 0.0 | −1.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Rico DowdleRB CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.3) | 9.3 | 5.4 | −3.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Mason KinseyWR TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.1) | 0.9 | 0.0 | −0.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Nick Westbrook-IkhineWR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1) | 3.7 | 2.8 | −0.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Reggie GilliamRB BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1) | 0.6 | 0.0 | −0.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Harrison BryantTE HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1) | 1.0 | 0.0 | −1.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Tee HigginsWR CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1) | 13.3 | 11.4 | −1.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Van JeffersonWR TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.1) | 5.0 | 1.6 | −3.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Adam TrautmanTE DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1) | 3.2 | 0.0 | −3.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Charlie WoernerTE ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.0) | 1.1 | 0.0 | −1.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Rashod BatemanWR BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.3) | 7.8 | 7.1 | −0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Chuba HubbardRB CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.3) | 11.3 | 9.4 | −1.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Jack StollTE NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.0) | 1.1 | 0.0 | −1.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Kylen GransonTE PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.0) | 0.9 | 0.0 | −0.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | DeVonta SmithWR PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1) | 24.4 | 14.4 | −10.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Tommy TrembleTE CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1) | 4.5 | 1.4 | −3.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Grant CalcaterraTE PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.0) | 3.2 | 0.0 | −3.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Tyler GoodsonRB IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1) | 2.3 | 0.2 | −2.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Greg DulcichTE MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.0) | 0.8 | 0.0 | −0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Tanner ConnerTE MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.0) | 3.1 | 2.6 | −0.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | John Metchie IIIWR PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1) | 2.5 | 0.0 | −2.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Alec PierceWR IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1) | 13.0 | 8.9 | −4.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Xavier GipsonWR PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1) | 2.3 | 1.3 | −1.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Andrei IosivasWR CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1) | 6.1 | 0.0 | −6.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Blake WhiteheartTE CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.0) | 0.9 | 0.0 | −0.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Nate AdkinsTE DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1) | 2.8 | 0.0 | −2.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Mitchell TinsleyWR CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1) | 1.2 | 0.0 | −1.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Dalton KincaidTE BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.0) | 8.6 | 3.3 | −5.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Marvin Mims Jr.WR DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1) | 9.3 | 1.8 | −7.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Zay FlowersWR BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.3) | 14.9 | 14.1 | −0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | British BrooksRB HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1) | 0.9 | 0.0 | −0.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Anthony GouldWR IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1) | 0.9 | 0.0 | −0.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Ray DavisRB BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1) | 3.6 | 1.6 | −2.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Adonai MitchellWR IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1) | 4.7 | 0.0 | −4.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Darius CooperWR PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1) | 0.9 | 0.0 | −0.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Kyle WilliamsWR NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1) | 1.5 | 0.0 | −1.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Elic AyomanorWR TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.1) | 11.5 | 9.2 | −2.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Mitchell EvansTE CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1) | 2.4 | 0.0 | −2.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Kyle MonangaiRB CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.1) | 7.8 | 2.4 | −5.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Travis KelceTE KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected +0.0) | 12.3 | 8.4 | −3.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Ameer AbdullahRB IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.1) | 4.8 | 3.7 | −1.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Sterling ShepardWR TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.4) | 11.0 | 7.5 | −3.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Chris MooreWR WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.3) | 12.7 | 7.9 | −4.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Demarcus RobinsonWR SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1) | 6.0 | 0.0 | −6.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Hunter HenryTE NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.0) | 10.0 | 7.3 | −2.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Tyler HigbeeTE LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.0) | 8.5 | 4.9 | −3.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Kendrick BourneWR SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1) | 10.5 | 3.4 | −7.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Eric SaubertTE SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected +0.0) | 0.8 | 0.0 | −0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Alvin KamaraRB NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1) | 14.0 | 5.9 | −8.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Kareem HuntRB KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected +0.3) | 8.6 | 1.8 | −6.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Dallas GoedertTE PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN, expected +0.0) | 11.8 | 4.8 | −7.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Saquon BarkleyRB PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN, expected +0.1) | 16.3 | 5.2 | −11.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Baker MayfieldQB TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected −1.1) | 18.5 | 11.1 | −7.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Malik TurnerWR SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1) | 1.1 | 0.0 | −1.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Sam DarnoldQB SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected −0.3) | 15.0 | 8.6 | −6.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Andrew BeckRB NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1) | 1.4 | 0.0 | −1.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Foster MoreauTE NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.0) | 2.8 | 0.0 | −2.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Tua TagovailoaQB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected −0.3) | 10.3 | -1.4 | −11.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Jauan JenningsWR SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1) | 11.1 | 7.1 | −4.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Charlie WoernerTE ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.0) | 1.0 | 0.0 | −1.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Jaylen WaddleWR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1) | 12.2 | 2.5 | −9.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | John BatesTE WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1) | 2.1 | 1.5 | −0.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Jack StollTE NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.0) | 0.9 | 0.0 | −0.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Kene NwangwuRB NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1) | 1.3 | 0.0 | −1.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Tutu AtwellWR LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1) | 6.4 | 0.0 | −6.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Kylen GransonTE PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN, expected +0.0) | 0.8 | 0.0 | −0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Kenny GainwellRB PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN, expected +0.1) | 11.3 | 3.5 | −7.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Mac JonesQB SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected −0.3) | 16.8 | 5.2 | −11.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Tommy TrembleTE CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.0) | 5.6 | 1.0 | −4.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Tyler AllgeierRB ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1) | 6.6 | 1.6 | −5.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Andrew OgletreeTE IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.1) | 0.7 | 0.0 | −0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Connor HeywardRB PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN, expected +0.1) | 1.4 | 0.0 | −1.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Jeremy RuckertTE NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.0) | 2.9 | 0.0 | −2.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Chig OkonkwoTE TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.0) | 7.6 | 0.0 | −7.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Kyren WilliamsRB LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1) | 19.3 | 8.5 | −10.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Breece HallRB NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1) | 16.7 | 7.2 | −9.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | E.J. JenkinsTE PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN, expected +0.0) | 0.7 | 0.0 | −0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Bijan RobinsonRB ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1) | 21.7 | 21.2 | −0.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Quentin JohnstonWR LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.3) | 14.0 | 11.0 | −3.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Tank BigsbyRB PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN, expected +0.1) | 4.8 | 2.0 | −2.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Payne DurhamTE TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.0) | 1.5 | 0.0 | −1.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Davis AllenTE LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.0) | 2.7 | 1.4 | −1.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Bryce YoungQB CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected −0.3) | 13.5 | 10.5 | −2.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Luke McCaffreyWR WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.3) | 7.6 | 0.0 | −7.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Ja'Tavion SandersTE CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.0) | 4.6 | 0.0 | −4.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Kameron JohnsonWR TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.4) | 2.6 | 0.0 | −2.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | David Martin-RobinsonTE TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.0) | 0.7 | 0.0 | −0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Jordan WhittingtonWR LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1) | 6.6 | 2.9 | −3.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Devin CulpTE TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.0) | 1.2 | 0.0 | −1.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Terrell JenningsRB NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1) | 2.9 | 1.8 | −1.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | AJ BarnerTE SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected +0.0) | 7.1 | 1.9 | −5.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Jayden DanielsQB WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected −0.8) | 22.4 | 17.7 | −4.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Ben SinnottTE WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1) | 0.8 | 0.0 | −0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse