Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR C · TE myth
Starters out on defense: every call
Each missing regular defensive starter (CB for WRs, S/LB for TEs, DL/LB for RBs, DB for QBs) adds points to the opposing player.
2024 backtest
716–1049–204
40.6% vs 39.1% baseline
2025 backtest
681–991–185
40.7% vs 39.1% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
55–83–12
39.9% vs 39.4% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB | 349–510–87 | 40.6% | 38.2% |
| TE | 371–558–194 | 39.9% | 39.1% |
| QB | 198–194–19 | 50.5% | 49.6% |
| WR | 479–778–89 | 38.1% | 36.3% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 716–1049–204 | 40.6% | 39.1% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 651–959–183 | 40.4% | 38.7% |
| 0.5–1 | 29–31–2 | 48.3% | 48.3% |
| 1+ | 1–1 | 50.0% | 49.6% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 W10 | Eric SaubertTE SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.0) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Zay JonesWR ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.1) | 4.5 | 0.0 | −4.5 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Gerald EverettTE CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.0) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Joe MixonRB HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1) | 9.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | D'Onta ForemanRB CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.3) | 3.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Jeff WilsonRB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Will DisslyTE LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.0) | 3.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Marquez Valdes-ScantlingWR PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.1) | 4.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Jordan AkinsTE CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1) | 3.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Justin WatsonWR HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1) | 3.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Braxton BerriosWR HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1) | 3.5 | 0.0 | −3.5 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Hayden HurstTE LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.0) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Steven SimsWR ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.1) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Irv SmithTE HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Stephen CarlsonTE CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.0) | 0.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Mecole HardmanWR BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1) | 2.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Diontae JohnsonWR HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1) | 3.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Kyler MurrayQB ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected −0.3) | 15.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Tom KennedyWR DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected +0.1) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Travis HomerRB CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Mitchell WilcoxTE NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.0) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | JaMycal HastyRB NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Tony JonesRB ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.1) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Cody WhiteWR SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.3) | 3.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Tyler MabryTE SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.0) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | J.J. TaylorRB HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Isaiah HodginsWR NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Gabe DavisWR BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1) | 8.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Darrynton EvansRB CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1) | 2.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Antonio GibsonRB NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1) | 5.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Cam AkersRB SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.1) | 2.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | DJ TurnerWR LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN, expected +0.1) | 2.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Ihmir Smith-MarsetteWR NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Zach DavidsonTE NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.0) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Rhamondre StevensonRB NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1) | 10.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Jaelon DardenWR CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Kadarius ToneyWR CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Avery WilliamsRB ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.1) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Terrace Marshall Jr.WR LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN, expected +0.1) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Josh PalmerWR BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1) | 5.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Britain CoveyWR PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.1) | 2.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Mike WoodsWR CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1) | 6.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Ko KieftTE TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.0) | 0.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Brittain BrownRB CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1) | 4.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Tanner ConnerTE MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1) | 3.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Kaden DavisWR CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Brandon JohnsonWR PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.1) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Jalen VirgilWR BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Ronnie RiversRB LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.3) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Velus Jones Jr.RB SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.1) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Erik EzukanmaWR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.3) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Pierre StrongRB CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.3) | 2.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Eric GrayRB NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.3) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Travis VokolekTE ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.0) | 0.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Grant DuBoseWR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.3) | 2.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Justin ShorterWR LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN, expected +0.1) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Kenny McIntoshRB SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.1) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Jalen BrooksWR ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.1) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Julian HillTE MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1) | 3.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Jared WayneWR HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Shedrick JacksonWR LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN, expected +0.1) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Brenton StrangeTE JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected +0.0) | 6.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Jalin HyattWR NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1) | 2.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Tank DellWR HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1) | 8.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Roschon JohnsonRB CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1) | 3.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Johnny WilsonWR PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.1) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Malik NabersWR NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1) | 12.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Cade StoverTE HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1) | 2.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Jase McClellanRB ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.1) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Jaheim BellTE NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.0) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Brenden BatesTE CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Xavier WeaverWR ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.1) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Ramel KeytonWR LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN, expected +0.1) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Jacob KibodiRB CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.3) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Cody SchraderRB LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.3) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Tip ReimanTE ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.0) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Ainias SmithWR PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.1) | 2.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Trey BensonRB ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.1) | 6.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Jacardia WrightRB SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.1) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Ollie Gordon IIRB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1) | 3.3 | -0.3 | −3.6 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Thomas Fidone IITE NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.0) | 0.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Raheim SandersRB CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.3) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Ke'Shawn WilliamsWR PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.1) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Nate CarterRB ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.1) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Tory HortonWR SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.3) | 5.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Cam SkatteboRB NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.3) | 12.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Kirk CousinsQB ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected −0.3) | 12.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Robert WoodsWR HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN, expected +0.1) | 3.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Darren WallerTE MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.0) | 6.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Eric TomlinsonTE LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.0) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Chris ConleyWR SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.3) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Carson WentzQB MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected −0.3) | 12.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Laquon TreadwellWR IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Tyler BoydWR TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.1) | 5.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Zach PascalWR ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Trent TaylorWR SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.3) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Pharaoh BrownTE ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.0) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Mike WilliamsWR PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.1) | 3.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Jeff WilsonRB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.1) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Will DisslyTE LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.0) | 3.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse