Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR myth · TE myth
Dome team outdoors: every call
Players from dome or roofed teams score less than projected in outdoor road games.
2024 backtest
375–246–68
60.4% vs 61.4% baseline
2025 backtest
380–236–65
61.7% vs 61.4% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
53–31–8
63.1% vs 61.4% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| WR | 339–194–34 | 63.6% | 63.7% |
| RB | 184–116–33 | 61.3% | 61.8% |
| TE | 177–120–58 | 59.6% | 60.9% |
| QB | 55–52–8 | 51.4% | 50.4% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 375–246–68 | 60.4% | 61.4% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 380–236–65 | 61.7% | 61.4% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 W1 | David MontgomeryRB DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB, expected −0.2) | 12.4 | 8.3 | −4.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W1 | Trishton JacksonWR MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI, expected +0.0) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W1 | Kristian WilkersonWR LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE, expected +0.0) | 2.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W1 | Justin JeffersonWR MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI, expected +0.0) | 17.6 | 14.8 | −2.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W1 | CeeDee LambWR DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI, expected +0.0) | 15.7 | 18.0 | +2.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W1 | Cam AkersRB MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI, expected −0.2) | 5.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W1 | Tim JonesWR MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI, expected +0.0) | 1.3 | 0.0 | −1.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W1 | DJ TurnerWR LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE, expected +0.0) | 6.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W1 | Shane ZylstraTE DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB, expected +0.4) | 0.3 | 0.0 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W1 | Jermar JeffersonRB DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB, expected −0.2) | 3.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W1 | Brock WrightTE DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB, expected +0.4) | 2.2 | 0.0 | −2.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W1 | Terrace Marshall Jr.WR LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE, expected +0.0) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W1 | Amon-Ra St. BrownWR DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB, expected +0.0) | 22.6 | 8.5 | −14.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W1 | Javonte WilliamsRB DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI, expected −0.2) | 14.9 | 20.4 | +5.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W1 | Jameson WilliamsWR DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB, expected +0.0) | 15.9 | 6.6 | −9.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W1 | George PickensWR DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI, expected +0.0) | 17.6 | 6.0 | −11.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W1 | Ty ChandlerRB MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI, expected −0.2) | 3.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W1 | Jalen NailorWR MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI, expected +0.0) | 4.4 | 3.8 | −0.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W1 | Nick MuseTE MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI, expected +0.4) | 0.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W1 | Tyreik McAllisterRB LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE, expected −0.2) | 2.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W1 | Sincere McCormickRB LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE, expected −0.2) | 10.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W1 | Jordan MasonRB MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI, expected −0.2) | 7.3 | 8.5 | +1.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W1 | Jalen TolbertWR DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI, expected +0.0) | 9.2 | 1.0 | −8.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W1 | KaVontae TurpinWR DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI, expected +0.0) | 6.1 | 4.7 | −1.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W1 | Zamir WhiteRB LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE, expected −0.2) | 6.0 | 0.8 | −5.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W1 | Jake FergusonTE DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI, expected +0.4) | 9.1 | 7.3 | −1.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W1 | Luke SchoonmakerTE DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI, expected +0.4) | 3.3 | 0.0 | −3.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W1 | Tre TuckerWR LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE, expected +0.0) | 11.1 | 13.4 | +2.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W1 | Aidan O'ConnellQB LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE, expected −0.5) | 14.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W1 | Justin ShorterWR LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE, expected +0.0) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W1 | Deuce VaughnRB DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI, expected −0.2) | 3.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W1 | Jalen BrooksWR DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI, expected +0.0) | 3.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W1 | Princeton FantTE DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI, expected +0.4) | 0.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W1 | Hunter LuepkeRB DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI, expected −0.2) | 2.7 | 0.0 | −2.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W1 | Jalen CropperWR DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI, expected +0.0) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W1 | John ShenkerTE LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE, expected +0.4) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W1 | Jordan AddisonWR MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI, expected +0.0) | 13.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W1 | Jonathan MingoWR DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI, expected +0.0) | 3.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W1 | Sam LaPortaTE DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB, expected +0.4) | 14.1 | 13.9 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W1 | Michael MayerTE LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE, expected +0.4) | 5.5 | 7.8 | +2.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W1 | Jahmyr GibbsRB DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB, expected −0.2) | 26.0 | 15.0 | −11.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W1 | Chris CollierRB LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE, expected −0.2) | 3.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W1 | Brock BowersTE LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE, expected +0.4) | 16.5 | 15.3 | −1.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W1 | Joe Milton IIIQB DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI, expected −0.5) | 14.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W1 | Dylan LaubeRB LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE, expected −0.2) | 2.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W1 | Ryan FlournoyWR DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI, expected +0.0) | 2.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W1 | Brevyn Spann-FordTE DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI, expected +0.4) | 1.4 | 0.0 | −1.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W1 | Ramel KeytonWR LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE, expected +0.0) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Jimmy GrahamTE NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Robert WoodsWR HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN) | 3.3 | 3.9 | +0.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Stefon DiggsWR HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN) | 10.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Dare OgunbowaleRB HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN) | 2.8 | 4.3 | +1.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Joe MixonRB HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN) | 12.9 | 3.8 | −9.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Alvin KamaraRB NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB) | 12.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Jamaal WilliamsRB NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB) | 3.8 | 3.2 | −0.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Marquez Valdes-ScantlingWR NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB) | 6.8 | 6.3 | −0.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Equanimeous St. BrownWR NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Keith KirkwoodWR NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Dalton SchultzTE HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN) | 6.8 | 5.9 | −0.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Cedrick Wilson Jr.WR NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB) | 2.8 | 5.2 | +2.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Dante PettisWR NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB) | 4.7 | 9.6 | +4.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Steven SimsWR HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Andrew BeckRB HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Irv SmithTE HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN) | 0.2 | 0.0 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Foster MoreauTE NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB) | 5.7 | 7.1 | +1.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Diontae JohnsonWR HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN) | 5.4 | 3.2 | −2.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Juwan JohnsonTE NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB) | 6.0 | 14.0 | +8.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | J.J. TaylorRB HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Clyde Edwards-HelaireRB NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB) | 10.0 | 5.0 | −5.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Lynn BowdenWR NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Nico CollinsWR HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN) | 13.1 | 14.8 | +1.7 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Brevin JordanTE HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN) | 2.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Adam PrenticeRB NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB) | 0.8 | 0.0 | −0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Kevin Austin Jr.WR NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB) | 5.7 | 2.3 | −3.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Chris OlaveWR NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB) | 7.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Dameon PierceRB HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN) | 1.5 | 23.6 | +22.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Teagan QuitorianoTE HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN) | 0.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Johnny Johnson IIIWR HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Rashid ShaheedWR NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB) | 9.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | John Metchie IIIWR HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN) | 4.8 | 4.4 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | A.T. PerryWR NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB) | 2.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Xavier HutchinsonWR HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN) | 2.3 | 1.5 | −0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Jordan MimsRB NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB) | 5.4 | 5.5 | +0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Jared WayneWR HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN) | 0.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Tank DellWR HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN) | 8.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | C.J. StroudQB HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN) | 11.3 | 6.0 | −5.3 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Cade StoverTE HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN) | 2.0 | 0.0 | −2.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Spencer RattlerQB NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB) | 10.4 | 14.7 | +4.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Bub MeansWR NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB) | 3.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | British BrooksRB HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Dallin HolkerTE NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB) | 0.2 | 3.1 | +2.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Jermaine JacksonWR NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Mason TiptonWR NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB) | 3.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Keith SmithRB ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs WAS) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Brandin CooksWR DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI) | 9.6 | 9.2 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Allen RobinsonWR DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SF) | 1.0 | 3.1 | +2.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Eric TomlinsonTE LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Laquon TreadwellWR IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Ezekiel ElliottRB DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI) | 2.9 | 0.2 | −2.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Dak PrescottQB DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI) | 10.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse