Matchup edge · RB myth · WR myth · TE C
Missed tackles: every call
Defenses that miss more tackles boost players who earn many yards after the catch or on the ground.
2024 backtest
461–500–67
48.0% vs 50.7% baseline
2025 backtest
345–372–50
48.1% vs 50.1% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
59–66–9
47.2% vs 49.7% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB | 568–625–76 | 47.6% | 50.9% |
| WR | 176–187–27 | 48.5% | 49.8% |
| TE | 62–60–14 | 50.8% | 48.0% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.25–0.5 | 478–526–87 | 47.6% | 51.0% |
| 0.5–1 | 219–234–22 | 48.3% | 50.0% |
| 1+ | 109–112–8 | 49.3% | 48.9% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 W15 | D'Andre SwiftRB CHI | Fade (Missed tackles vs MIN, expected −1.2) | 13.1 | 9.9 | −3.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | CeeDee LambWR DAL | Boost (Missed tackles vs CAR, expected +0.5) | 14.4 | 26.6 | +12.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Chuba HubbardRB CAR | Fade (Missed tackles vs DAL, expected −0.6) | 17.6 | 8.9 | −8.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Ja'Marr ChaseWR CIN | Fade (Missed tackles vs TEN, expected −0.5) | 20.9 | 18.4 | −2.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Khalil HerbertRB CIN | Fade (Missed tackles vs TEN, expected −0.5) | 2.0 | 0.4 | −1.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Travis EtienneRB JAX | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYJ, expected +0.8) | 11.8 | 12.5 | +0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Tyler GoodsonRB IND | Fade (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected −0.4) | 2.8 | 0.3 | −2.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Ty ChandlerRB MIN | Fade (Missed tackles vs CHI, expected −0.5) | 3.1 | 0.4 | −2.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Breece HallRB NYJ | Fade (Missed tackles vs JAX, expected −0.3) | 15.4 | 13.1 | −2.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Marvin Mims Jr.WR DEN | Boost (Missed tackles vs IND, expected +0.3) | 5.3 | 6.0 | +0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Josh DownsWR IND | Fade (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 10.3 | 6.2 | −4.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Puka NacuaWR LAR | Boost (Missed tackles vs SF, expected +0.3) | 16.6 | 17.8 | +1.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Isaac GuerendoRB SF | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected +0.7) | 4.9 | 11.5 | +6.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Tyrone Tracy Jr.RB NYG | Fade (Missed tackles vs BAL, expected −0.6) | 10.3 | 4.5 | −5.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Brian Thomas Jr.WR JAX | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYJ, expected +0.3) | 14.9 | 32.5 | +17.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Trey BensonRB ARI | Fade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −0.5) | 4.2 | 2.2 | −2.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Tyreek HillWR MIA | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYJ, expected +0.5) | 13.5 | 28.1 | +14.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Jonnu SmithTE MIA | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYJ, expected +0.4) | 11.4 | 13.4 | +1.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Nick ChubbRB CLE | Fade (Missed tackles vs PIT, expected −1.0) | 6.7 | 4.8 | −1.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Ty JohnsonRB BUF | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected +0.3) | 4.3 | 13.5 | +9.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | David MontgomeryRB DET | Boost (Missed tackles vs GB, expected +0.7) | 14.0 | 19.4 | +5.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Deebo Samuel Sr.WR SF | Fade (Missed tackles vs CHI, expected −0.4) | 9.8 | 5.5 | −4.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Tyler JohnsonWR LAR | Fade (Missed tackles vs BUF, expected −0.3) | 3.8 | 0.0 | −3.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Jaylen WaddleWR MIA | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYJ, expected +0.3) | 10.3 | 20.9 | +10.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Rachaad WhiteRB TB | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +1.0) | 16.5 | 24.9 | +8.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Khalil ShakirWR BUF | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected +0.5) | 13.5 | 21.6 | +8.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Jerome FordRB CLE | Fade (Missed tackles vs PIT, expected −1.2) | 9.0 | 7.7 | −1.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | De'Von AchaneRB MIA | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYJ, expected +1.3) | 17.1 | 18.9 | +1.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Tyrone Tracy Jr.RB NYG | Boost (Missed tackles vs NO, expected +0.6) | 12.3 | 19.3 | +7.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Jordan WhittingtonWR LAR | Fade (Missed tackles vs BUF, expected −0.5) | 2.9 | 0.0 | −2.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Derrick HenryRB BAL | Fade (Missed tackles vs PHI, expected −0.3) | 17.4 | 14.1 | −3.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Tyreek HillWR MIA | Boost (Missed tackles vs GB, expected +0.3) | 13.2 | 20.3 | +7.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Christian McCaffreyRB SF | Fade (Missed tackles vs BUF, expected −2.1) | 15.2 | 8.7 | −6.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | George KittleTE SF | Fade (Missed tackles vs BUF, expected −0.6) | 11.2 | 1.7 | −9.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Aaron JonesRB MIN | Fade (Missed tackles vs ARI, expected −0.7) | 16.6 | 9.8 | −6.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | James ConnerRB ARI | Fade (Missed tackles vs MIN, expected −1.2) | 15.5 | 11.1 | −4.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Jonnu SmithTE MIA | Boost (Missed tackles vs GB, expected +0.3) | 10.2 | 21.3 | +11.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Saquon BarkleyRB PHI | Fade (Missed tackles vs BAL, expected −1.3) | 21.7 | 19.7 | −2.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Devin SingletaryRB NYG | Fade (Missed tackles vs DAL, expected −0.3) | 6.1 | 2.3 | −3.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Tony PollardRB TEN | Fade (Missed tackles vs WAS, expected −0.7) | 15.3 | 8.8 | −6.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | A.J. BrownWR PHI | Fade (Missed tackles vs BAL, expected −0.3) | 19.1 | 11.6 | −7.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Deebo Samuel Sr.WR SF | Fade (Missed tackles vs BUF, expected −0.9) | 9.4 | 6.0 | −3.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Rico DowdleRB DAL | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYG, expected +0.3) | 13.0 | 21.3 | +8.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Michael PittmanWR IND | Fade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −0.3) | 17.3 | 9.2 | −8.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Jauan JenningsWR SF | Fade (Missed tackles vs BUF, expected −0.3) | 11.5 | 8.6 | −2.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Antonio GibsonRB NE | Boost (Missed tackles vs IND, expected +0.3) | 5.2 | 12.2 | +7.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Cam AkersRB MIN | Fade (Missed tackles vs ARI, expected −0.3) | 5.9 | 2.2 | −3.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Chuba HubbardRB CAR | Fade (Missed tackles vs TB, expected −0.3) | 16.9 | 2.3 | −14.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Khalil HerbertRB CIN | Fade (Missed tackles vs PIT, expected −0.8) | 2.0 | 1.4 | −0.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Kenny GainwellRB PHI | Fade (Missed tackles vs BAL, expected −0.3) | 5.3 | 0.0 | −5.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Amon-Ra St. BrownWR DET | Fade (Missed tackles vs CHI, expected −0.3) | 17.1 | 12.3 | −4.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Trey SermonRB IND | Fade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −0.4) | 4.0 | 0.0 | −4.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Tyler GoodsonRB IND | Fade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −0.5) | 3.5 | 0.0 | −3.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Jameson WilliamsWR DET | Fade (Missed tackles vs CHI, expected −0.3) | 13.3 | 9.6 | −3.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | James CookRB BUF | Boost (Missed tackles vs SF, expected +0.8) | 16.9 | 19.0 | +2.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Jerome FordRB CLE | Fade (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected −0.7) | 10.1 | 7.2 | −2.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Ty ChandlerRB MIN | Fade (Missed tackles vs ARI, expected −0.3) | 3.6 | 0.2 | −3.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Bijan RobinsonRB ATL | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAC, expected +0.5) | 18.4 | 25.5 | +7.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Emari DemercadoRB ARI | Fade (Missed tackles vs MIN, expected −0.4) | 3.4 | 2.5 | −0.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Jaleel McLaughlinRB DEN | Boost (Missed tackles vs CLE, expected +0.5) | 5.8 | 9.4 | +3.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Emanuel WilsonRB GB | Fade (Missed tackles vs MIA, expected −0.4) | 5.0 | 2.0 | −3.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Tyjae SpearsRB TEN | Fade (Missed tackles vs WAS, expected −0.4) | 6.2 | 0.3 | −5.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | De'Von AchaneRB MIA | Boost (Missed tackles vs GB, expected +0.9) | 14.7 | 21.0 | +6.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Puka NacuaWR LAR | Boost (Missed tackles vs NO, expected +0.3) | 14.8 | 17.3 | +2.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Jahmyr GibbsRB DET | Fade (Missed tackles vs CHI, expected −1.0) | 21.8 | 10.4 | −11.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Zach CharbonnetRB SEA | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYJ, expected +0.6) | 6.6 | 12.1 | +5.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Bucky IrvingRB TB | Boost (Missed tackles vs CAR, expected +1.1) | 12.3 | 27.5 | +15.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Will ShipleyRB PHI | Fade (Missed tackles vs BAL, expected −0.3) | 1.6 | 0.4 | −1.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Ray DavisRB BUF | Boost (Missed tackles vs SF, expected +0.4) | 5.2 | 13.7 | +8.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Brian Thomas Jr.WR JAX | Boost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +0.5) | 11.9 | 18.7 | +6.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Ricky PearsallWR SF | Fade (Missed tackles vs BUF, expected −0.4) | 4.5 | 0.0 | −4.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Trey BensonRB ARI | Fade (Missed tackles vs MIN, expected −0.5) | 3.4 | 2.0 | −1.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Raheem MostertRB MIA | Fade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −1.3) | 7.6 | 1.2 | −6.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Tyreek HillWR MIA | Fade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −0.7) | 14.6 | 9.8 | −4.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Ezekiel ElliottRB DAL | Fade (Missed tackles vs WAS, expected −0.3) | 5.2 | 0.6 | −4.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | George KittleTE SF | Boost (Missed tackles vs GB, expected +0.4) | 9.7 | 20.2 | +10.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | David NjokuTE CLE | Fade (Missed tackles vs PIT, expected −0.4) | 10.2 | 3.9 | −6.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Joe MixonRB HOU | Fade (Missed tackles vs TEN, expected −0.9) | 18.5 | 9.5 | −9.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Saquon BarkleyRB PHI | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected +1.6) | 21.6 | 46.2 | +24.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Alec IngoldRB MIA | Fade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −0.3) | 2.8 | 0.0 | −2.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Tony PollardRB TEN | Boost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +1.4) | 15.4 | 21.9 | +6.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | DK MetcalfWR SEA | Fade (Missed tackles vs ARI, expected −0.3) | 14.7 | 9.9 | −4.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | A.J. BrownWR PHI | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected +0.4) | 20.7 | 22.9 | +2.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | David MontgomeryRB DET | Boost (Missed tackles vs IND, expected +0.5) | 13.8 | 16.3 | +2.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Josh JacobsRB GB | Boost (Missed tackles vs SF, expected +0.4) | 18.1 | 28.6 | +10.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | J.K. DobbinsRB LAC | Fade (Missed tackles vs BAL, expected −0.7) | 15.0 | 8.9 | −6.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | D'Andre SwiftRB CHI | Fade (Missed tackles vs MIN, expected −1.0) | 12.6 | 9.5 | −3.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Cam AkersRB MIN | Fade (Missed tackles vs CHI, expected −0.3) | 5.3 | 3.5 | −1.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Rhamondre StevensonRB NE | Fade (Missed tackles vs MIA, expected −1.2) | 13.1 | 3.3 | −9.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Pat FreiermuthTE PIT | Boost (Missed tackles vs CLE, expected +0.3) | 6.2 | 9.9 | +3.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Kenny GainwellRB PHI | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected +0.4) | 6.0 | 8.2 | +2.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Jaylen WarrenRB PIT | Boost (Missed tackles vs CLE, expected +1.1) | 8.3 | 15.4 | +7.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Jerome FordRB CLE | Fade (Missed tackles vs PIT, expected −0.9) | 9.0 | 3.7 | −5.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Kenneth Walker IIIRB SEA | Fade (Missed tackles vs ARI, expected −1.0) | 16.2 | 13.3 | −2.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Sean TuckerRB TB | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYG, expected +0.5) | 3.7 | 8.0 | +4.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Marvin Mims Jr.WR DEN | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.3) | 4.2 | 7.2 | +3.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Jahmyr GibbsRB DET | Boost (Missed tackles vs IND, expected +0.6) | 19.6 | 24.9 | +5.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Zach CharbonnetRB SEA | Fade (Missed tackles vs ARI, expected −0.5) | 7.5 | 2.2 | −5.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Brock BowersTE LV | Fade (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 13.7 | 7.8 | −5.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Bucky IrvingRB TB | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYG, expected +0.8) | 10.8 | 27.2 | +16.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse