Edgehalla

Matchup edge · RB C · WR myth · TE C

Red-zone defense: every call

Defenses that give up more points per red-zone snap boost players with big red-zone roles.

2024 backtest

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no graded calls

2025 backtest

57–47–5

54.8% vs 50.9% baseline

Win rate 54.8% (95% 45.2%–64.0%) vs baseline 50.9%

2026 live (from Week 5)

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first live calls this week

2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)

1–0

100.0% vs 38.2% baseline

Win rate 100.0% (95% 20.6%–100.0%) vs baseline 38.2%

2024–25 by position and by expected effect

PositionW–L–PWin %Baseline
WR13–14–148.1%50.5%
RB38–24–461.3%50.8%
TE6–940.0%52.2%
Expected effect (PPR)W–L–PWin %Baseline
0.25–0.553–43–555.2%50.7%
0.5–14–450.0%53.4%

Call log

SeasonAll202420252026
SourceAllBacktestBacktest (after the fact)Live
PositionAllRBWRTE
ResultAll✅ Win❌ LossPushVoidNot graded
Red-zone defense calls, newest first
WeekPlayerCallProjActualMarginResultSource · made
2025 W11Darren WallerTE MIABoost (Red-zone defense vs WAS, expected +0.3)5.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11James ConnerRB ARIBoost (Red-zone defense vs SF, expected +0.4)12.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Joe MixonRB HOUBoost (Red-zone defense vs TEN, expected +0.4)11.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Kareem HuntRB KCFade (Red-zone defense vs DEN, expected −0.4)10.613.2+2.6❌Backtest ·
2025 W11Marquise BrownWR KCFade (Red-zone defense vs DEN, expected −0.3)7.88.0+0.2pushBacktest ·
2025 W11Josh JacobsRB GBBoost (Red-zone defense vs NYG, expected +0.4)18.04.0−14.0❌Backtest ·
2025 W11Trey McBrideTE ARIBoost (Red-zone defense vs SF, expected +0.3)18.627.5+8.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W11Kyren WilliamsRB LARFade (Red-zone defense vs SEA, expected −0.3)17.216.6−0.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W11Rashee RiceWR KCFade (Red-zone defense vs DEN, expected −0.6)15.09.8−5.2✅Backtest ·
2025 W11Jahmyr GibbsRB DETFade (Red-zone defense vs PHI, expected −0.3)17.619.6+1.9❌Backtest ·
2025 W10Darren WallerTE MIAFade (Red-zone defense vs BUF, expected −0.3)5.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W10Derrick HenryRB BALFade (Red-zone defense vs MIN, expected −0.3)15.911.4−4.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W10Christian McCaffreyRB SFFade (Red-zone defense vs LAR, expected −0.4)21.517.6−3.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W10George KittleTE SFFade (Red-zone defense vs LAR, expected −0.3)9.323.4+14.1❌Backtest ·
2025 W10Josh JacobsRB GBFade (Red-zone defense vs PHI, expected −0.3)16.519.7+3.2❌Backtest ·
2025 W10Kyren WilliamsRB LARBoost (Red-zone defense vs SF, expected +0.3)17.522.4+4.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W10Ashton JeantyRB LVFade (Red-zone defense vs DEN, expected −0.5)12.715.3+2.6❌Backtest ·
2025 W9Joe MixonRB HOUFade (Red-zone defense vs DEN, expected −0.4)11.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Jonathan TaylorRB INDFade (Red-zone defense vs PIT, expected −0.3)22.07.7−14.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W9Amon-Ra St. BrownWR DETFade (Red-zone defense vs MIN, expected −0.3)19.818.7−1.1✅Backtest ·
2025 W9Jahmyr GibbsRB DETFade (Red-zone defense vs MIN, expected −0.3)22.15.8−16.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W8Josh JacobsRB GBFade (Red-zone defense vs PIT, expected −0.3)18.213.5−4.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W8Javonte WilliamsRB DALFade (Red-zone defense vs DEN, expected −0.3)17.117.9+0.8❌Backtest ·
2025 W8Cam SkatteboRB NYGFade (Red-zone defense vs PHI, expected −0.3)12.310.0−2.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W7Cam SkatteboRB NYGFade (Red-zone defense vs DEN, expected −0.4)11.018.4+7.4❌Backtest ·
2025 W6Davante AdamsWR LARBoost (Red-zone defense vs BAL, expected +0.3)16.77.9−8.8❌Backtest ·
2025 W6Darren WallerTE MIAFade (Red-zone defense vs LAC, expected −0.3)8.19.2+1.1❌Backtest ·
2025 W6Josh JacobsRB GBBoost (Red-zone defense vs CIN, expected +0.4)19.532.0+12.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W6Kyren WilliamsRB LARBoost (Red-zone defense vs BAL, expected +0.6)19.816.7−3.1❌Backtest ·
2025 W6Puka NacuaWR LARBoost (Red-zone defense vs BAL, expected +0.3)23.44.8−18.6❌Backtest ·
2025 W6Ashton JeantyRB LVBoost (Red-zone defense vs TEN, expected +0.3)16.816.6−0.2pushBacktest ·
2025 W5Joe MixonRB HOUBoost (Red-zone defense vs BAL, expected +0.3)11.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W5Saquon BarkleyRB PHIFade (Red-zone defense vs DEN, expected −0.3)17.517.8+0.3pushBacktest ·
2025 W5Amon-Ra St. BrownWR DETBoost (Red-zone defense vs CIN, expected +0.3)20.118.0−2.1❌Backtest ·
2025 W5James CookRB BUFBoost (Red-zone defense vs NE, expected +0.3)19.34.9−14.4❌Backtest ·
2025 W5Jahmyr GibbsRB DETBoost (Red-zone defense vs CIN, expected +0.3)23.016.7−6.3❌Backtest ·
2025 W4James CookRB BUFBoost (Red-zone defense vs NO, expected +0.3)20.622.5+1.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W3Amon-Ra St. BrownWR DETBoost (Red-zone defense vs BAL, expected +0.3)19.420.7+1.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W3Jahmyr GibbsRB DETBoost (Red-zone defense vs BAL, expected +0.3)18.226.9+8.7✅Backtest ·

NewerPage 2 of 2 · 139 calls

How this works

Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.

Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.

Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse