Matchup edge · QB myth · RB myth · WR myth · TE myth
Short week: every call
Teams on four or fewer days of rest (Thursday after Sunday) score fewer fantasy points than projected.
2024 backtest
241–151–41
61.5% vs 61.4% baseline
2025 backtest
225–151–39
59.8% vs 61.4% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
30–29–9
50.8% vs 61.3% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| WR | 211–119–21 | 63.9% | 63.7% |
| TE | 104–73–33 | 58.8% | 60.9% |
| RB | 122–71–21 | 63.2% | 61.8% |
| QB | 29–39–5 | 42.6% | 50.4% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 241–151–41 | 61.5% | 61.4% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 214–130–35 | 62.2% | 62.4% |
| 0.5–1 | 11–21–4 | 34.4% | 50.4% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 W15 | Sterling ShepardWR TB | Fade (Short week vs ATL, expected −0.3) | 6.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Jamal AgnewWR ATL | Fade (Short week vs TB, expected −0.3) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Chris Godwin Jr.WR TB | Fade (Short week vs ATL, expected −0.3) | 9.8 | 14.0 | +4.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | KhaDarel HodgeWR ATL | Fade (Short week vs TB, expected −0.3) | 2.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | David SillsWR ATL | Fade (Short week vs TB, expected −0.3) | 4.5 | 13.8 | +9.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Darnell MooneyWR ATL | Fade (Short week vs TB, expected −0.3) | 10.9 | 6.5 | −4.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Chris BlairWR ATL | Fade (Short week vs TB, expected −0.3) | 1.9 | 0.0 | −1.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Deven ThompkinsWR ATL | Fade (Short week vs TB, expected −0.3) | 3.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Rakim JarrettWR TB | Fade (Short week vs ATL, expected −0.3) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Ryan MillerWR TB | Fade (Short week vs ATL, expected −0.3) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Dylan DrummondWR ATL | Fade (Short week vs TB, expected −0.3) | 5.3 | 0.0 | −5.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Trey PalmerWR TB | Fade (Short week vs ATL, expected −0.3) | 2.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Casey WashingtonWR ATL | Fade (Short week vs TB, expected −0.3) | 3.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Kameron JohnsonWR TB | Fade (Short week vs ATL, expected −0.3) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Jalen McMillanWR TB | Fade (Short week vs ATL, expected −0.3) | 7.6 | 5.8 | −1.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Emeka EgbukaWR TB | Fade (Short week vs ATL, expected −0.3) | 13.4 | 10.4 | −3.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Tez JohnsonWR TB | Fade (Short week vs ATL, expected −0.3) | 5.9 | 0.0 | −5.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | DeAndre HopkinsWR BAL | Fade (Short week vs CIN, expected −0.3) | 6.2 | 4.5 | −1.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Allen RobinsonWR DET | Fade (Short week vs GB, expected −0.3) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Nelson AgholorWR BAL | Fade (Short week vs CIN, expected −0.3) | 5.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | JuJu Smith-SchusterWR KC | Fade (Short week vs DAL, expected −0.3) | 5.2 | 0.0 | −5.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Anthony MillerWR BAL | Fade (Short week vs CIN, expected −0.3) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Trenton IrwinWR CIN | Fade (Short week vs BAL, expected −0.3) | 3.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Tom KennedyWR DET | Fade (Short week vs GB, expected −0.3) | 1.7 | 7.6 | +5.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Parris CampbellWR DAL | Fade (Short week vs KC, expected −0.3) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Marquise BrownWR KC | Fade (Short week vs DAL, expected −0.3) | 7.8 | 10.0 | +2.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | CeeDee LambWR DAL | Fade (Short week vs KC, expected −0.3) | 16.0 | 24.2 | +8.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Rashod BatemanWR BAL | Fade (Short week vs CIN, expected −0.3) | 8.7 | 0.0 | −8.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Tylan WallaceWR BAL | Fade (Short week vs CIN, expected −0.3) | 2.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Ja'Marr ChaseWR CIN | Fade (Short week vs BAL, expected −0.3) | 24.5 | 18.0 | −6.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Amon-Ra St. BrownWR DET | Fade (Short week vs GB, expected −0.3) | 24.1 | 0.0 | −24.1 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Bo MeltonWR GB | Fade (Short week vs DET, expected −0.3) | 3.0 | 1.5 | −1.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Jameson WilliamsWR DET | Fade (Short week vs GB, expected −0.3) | 13.2 | 26.9 | +13.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | George PickensWR DAL | Fade (Short week vs KC, expected −0.3) | 17.5 | 16.8 | −0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Kendric PryorWR CIN | Fade (Short week vs BAL, expected −0.3) | 2.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Jalen TolbertWR DAL | Fade (Short week vs KC, expected −0.3) | 4.6 | 0.0 | −4.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | KaVontae TurpinWR DAL | Fade (Short week vs KC, expected −0.3) | 4.7 | 8.1 | +3.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Romeo DoubsWR GB | Fade (Short week vs DET, expected −0.3) | 13.5 | 12.0 | −1.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Tyquan ThorntonWR KC | Fade (Short week vs DAL, expected −0.3) | 5.2 | 0.0 | −5.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Christian WatsonWR GB | Fade (Short week vs DET, expected −0.3) | 12.2 | 18.3 | +6.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Dontayvion WicksWR GB | Fade (Short week vs DET, expected −0.3) | 7.5 | 28.0 | +20.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Malik HeathWR GB | Fade (Short week vs DET, expected −0.3) | 1.6 | 0.0 | −1.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Jason BrownleeWR KC | Fade (Short week vs DAL, expected −0.3) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Nikko RemigioWR KC | Fade (Short week vs DAL, expected −0.3) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Charlie JonesWR CIN | Fade (Short week vs BAL, expected −0.3) | 2.5 | 0.0 | −2.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Andrei IosivasWR CIN | Fade (Short week vs BAL, expected −0.3) | 11.9 | 9.9 | −2.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Jalen CropperWR DAL | Fade (Short week vs KC, expected −0.3) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Mitchell TinsleyWR CIN | Fade (Short week vs BAL, expected −0.3) | 4.0 | 4.2 | +0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Jonathan MingoWR DAL | Fade (Short week vs KC, expected −0.3) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Zay FlowersWR BAL | Fade (Short week vs CIN, expected −0.3) | 18.7 | 0.6 | −18.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Rashee RiceWR KC | Fade (Short week vs DAL, expected −0.3) | 17.8 | 29.4 | +11.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Ryan FlournoyWR DAL | Fade (Short week vs KC, expected −0.3) | 3.7 | 6.4 | +2.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Devontez WalkerWR BAL | Fade (Short week vs CIN, expected −0.3) | 2.4 | 0.0 | −2.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Xavier WorthyWR KC | Fade (Short week vs DAL, expected −0.3) | 11.4 | 11.4 | −0.0 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | LaJohntay WesterWR BAL | Fade (Short week vs CIN, expected −0.3) | 0.4 | 0.0 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Dominic LovettWR DET | Fade (Short week vs GB, expected −0.3) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Jalen RoyalsWR KC | Fade (Short week vs DAL, expected −0.3) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Matthew GoldenWR GB | Fade (Short week vs DET, expected −0.3) | 7.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Isaac TeSlaaWR DET | Fade (Short week vs GB, expected −0.3) | 2.0 | 11.5 | +9.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Robert WoodsWR HOU | Fade (Short week vs BUF, expected −0.3) | 2.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Amari CooperWR BUF | Fade (Short week vs HOU, expected −0.3) | 5.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Justin WatsonWR HOU | Fade (Short week vs BUF, expected −0.3) | 3.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Braxton BerriosWR HOU | Fade (Short week vs BUF, expected −0.3) | 2.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Christian KirkWR HOU | Fade (Short week vs BUF, expected −0.3) | 5.1 | 16.4 | +11.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Diontae JohnsonWR HOU | Fade (Short week vs BUF, expected −0.3) | 3.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Gabe DavisWR BUF | Fade (Short week vs HOU, expected −0.3) | 6.1 | 3.2 | −2.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Nico CollinsWR HOU | Fade (Short week vs BUF, expected −0.3) | 13.5 | 8.5 | −5.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Elijah MooreWR BUF | Fade (Short week vs HOU, expected −0.3) | 4.0 | 0.7 | −3.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Josh PalmerWR BUF | Fade (Short week vs HOU, expected −0.3) | 7.3 | 4.1 | −3.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Khalil ShakirWR BUF | Fade (Short week vs HOU, expected −0.3) | 12.6 | 17.0 | +4.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Jalen VirgilWR BUF | Fade (Short week vs HOU, expected −0.3) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Xavier HutchinsonWR HOU | Fade (Short week vs BUF, expected −0.3) | 4.7 | 0.9 | −3.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Tyrell ShaversWR BUF | Fade (Short week vs HOU, expected −0.3) | 3.9 | 0.0 | −3.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Jared WayneWR HOU | Fade (Short week vs BUF, expected −0.3) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Tank DellWR HOU | Fade (Short week vs BUF, expected −0.3) | 8.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Keon ColemanWR BUF | Fade (Short week vs HOU, expected −0.3) | 10.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Jayden HigginsWR HOU | Fade (Short week vs BUF, expected −0.3) | 5.2 | 13.8 | +8.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Jaylin NoelWR HOU | Fade (Short week vs BUF, expected −0.3) | 3.8 | 1.9 | −1.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Stefon DiggsWR NE | Fade (Short week vs NYJ, expected −0.3) | 16.9 | 19.5 | +2.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Alex EricksonWR NE | Fade (Short week vs NYJ, expected −0.3) | 2.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Mack HollinsWR NE | Fade (Short week vs NYJ, expected −0.3) | 11.8 | 10.4 | −1.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Josh ReynoldsWR NYJ | Fade (Short week vs NE, expected −0.3) | 8.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Allen LazardWR NYJ | Fade (Short week vs NE, expected −0.3) | 4.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Tyler JohnsonWR NYJ | Fade (Short week vs NE, expected −0.3) | 5.1 | 0.0 | −5.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Brandon SmithWR NYJ | Fade (Short week vs NE, expected −0.3) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Irvin CharlesWR NYJ | Fade (Short week vs NE, expected −0.3) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | John Metchie IIIWR NYJ | Fade (Short week vs NE, expected −0.3) | 3.0 | 13.5 | +10.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | DeMario DouglasWR NE | Fade (Short week vs NYJ, expected −0.3) | 9.2 | 6.1 | −3.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Isaiah WilliamsWR NYJ | Fade (Short week vs NE, expected −0.3) | 3.6 | 1.6 | −2.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Javon BakerWR NE | Fade (Short week vs NYJ, expected −0.3) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Adonai MitchellWR NYJ | Fade (Short week vs NE, expected −0.3) | 3.3 | 2.0 | −1.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Ja'Lynn PolkWR NE | Fade (Short week vs NYJ, expected −0.3) | 3.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Kyle WilliamsWR NE | Fade (Short week vs NYJ, expected −0.3) | 2.4 | 0.0 | −2.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Efton Chism IIIWR NE | Fade (Short week vs NYJ, expected −0.3) | 0.7 | 0.0 | −0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Arian SmithWR NYJ | Fade (Short week vs NE, expected −0.3) | 3.7 | 0.0 | −3.7 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Tyler LockettWR LV | Fade (Short week vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 4.3 | 9.4 | +5.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Courtland SuttonWR DEN | Fade (Short week vs LV, expected −0.3) | 15.6 | 5.4 | −10.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Trent SherfieldWR DEN | Fade (Short week vs LV, expected −0.3) | 1.1 | 0.0 | −1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Lil'Jordan HumphreyWR DEN | Fade (Short week vs LV, expected −0.3) | 5.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Alex BachmanWR LV | Fade (Short week vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 0.8 | 0.0 | −0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse