TE · SEA · 114 lines since 2023
AJ Barner Player Props
Closing consensus lines for AJ Barner, what he did, and what our model projected before the game.
2026 Week 5
- Anytime TD priced at 25% — we make it 30%
- Line 12.5 yds longest rec — we project 14 (P(over) 55%)
- Line 21.5 rec yds — we project 22 (P(over) 51%)
- Line 2.5 receptions — we project 2 (P(over) 46%)
Over/under record by market
- Rushing yards over 1, under 0 (1 graded)
- Receiving yards over 14, under 14 (28 graded)
- Receptions over 10, under 16 (26 graded)
- Anytime TD over 11, under 27 (38 graded)
- Longest reception over 8, under 9 (17 graded)
Our calls on him: Pre-snap motion 1–3 · model 24–31 · Starters out on defense 2–2 · Short week 1–3 · Wind 15+ mph 0–1
Line vs actual vs our projection
| Week | Market | Line | We projected | P(over) us / market | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 W5 | Any TD | – | 30% TD chance | 30% / 25% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Long rec | 12.5 | 14 | 55% / 50% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rec yds | 21.5 | 22 | 51% / 51% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 46% / 48% | – | … |
| 2026 W4 | Any TD | – | 31% TD chance | 31% / 27% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W4 | Rec yds | 30.5 | 24 | 40% / 50% | 12 | under |
| 2026 W4 | Rec | 3.5 | 2.5 | 31% / 41% | 1 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Any TD | – | 23% TD chance | 23% / 25% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Rec yds | 20.5 | 19 | 47% / 50% | 69 | over |
| 2026 W3 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 41% / 48% | 5 | over |
| 2026 W2 | Any TD | – | 23% TD chance | 23% / 24% | 1 | over |
| 2026 W2 | Rec yds | 22.5 | 22 | 49% / 51% | 8 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 50% / 51% | 1 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Any TD | – | 35% TD chance | 35% / 28% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Rec yds | 25.5 | 37 | 64% / 50% | 13 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Rec | 2.5 | 4 | 71% / 58% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W18 | Any TD | – | 28% TD chance | 28% / 38% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W18 | Long rec | 15.5 | 16 | 53% / 51% | 9 | under |
| 2025 W18 | Rec yds | 37.5 | 30 | 40% / 50% | 14 | under |
| 2025 W18 | Rec | 4.5 | 3 | 28% / 44% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Any TD | – | 28% TD chance | 28% / 33% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W17 | Long rec | 15.5 | 15 | 50% / 49% | 17 | over |
| 2025 W17 | Rec yds | 31.5 | 27 | 43% / 50% | 43 | over |
| 2025 W17 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 38% / 46% | 3 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Any TD | – | 26% TD chance | 26% / 29% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W16 | Long rec | 14.5 | 14 | 46% / 49% | 26 | over |
| 2025 W16 | Rec yds | 30.5 | 24 | 41% / 50% | 49 | over |
| 2025 W16 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 38% / 52% | 4 | over |
| 2025 W16 | Rush yds | 0.5 | 0 | 24% / 42% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Any TD | – | 34% TD chance | 34% / 35% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Long rec | 14.5 | 17 | 57% / 50% | 15 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Rec yds | 30.5 | 29 | 48% / 50% | 27 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 40% / 44% | 3 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Any TD | – | 26% TD chance | 26% / 32% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Long rec | 14.5 | 13 | 46% / 51% | 15 | over |
| 2025 W14 | Rec yds | 29.5 | 22 | 38% / 49% | 27 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Rec | 3.5 | 2 | 32% / 44% | 3 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Any TD | – | 31% TD chance | 31% / 31% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Long rec | 15.5 | 14 | 45% / 48% | 13 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Rec yds | 27.5 | 22 | 41% / 50% | 35 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Rec | 3.5 | 2 | 28% / 42% | 4 | over |
| 2025 W12 | Any TD | – | 30% TD chance | 30% / 29% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Long rec | 13.5 | 14 | 51% / 49% | 13 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Rec yds | 25.5 | 22 | 45% / 50% | 18 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 47% / 57% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Any TD | – | 27% TD chance | 27% / 27% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Long rec | 13.5 | 11 | 43% / 50% | 13 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Rec yds | 25.5 | 16 | 34% / 49% | 70 | over |
| 2025 W11 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 35% / 48% | 10 | over |
| 2025 W10 | Any TD | – | 30% TD chance | 30% / 29% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Long rec | 14.5 | 12 | 43% / 49% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Rec yds | 27.5 | 18 | 35% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 36% / 53% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Any TD | – | 29% TD chance | 29% / 31% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W9 | Long rec | 14.5 | 14 | 49% / 50% | 9 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Rec yds | 27.5 | 22 | 42% / 50% | 24 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 47% / 53% | 3 | over |
| 2025 W7 | Any TD | – | 28% TD chance | 28% / 23% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Long rec | 13.5 | 12 | 46% / 51% | 7 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Rec yds | 24.5 | 19 | 41% / 50% | 7 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 45% / 53% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Any TD | – | 27% TD chance | 27% / 26% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Long rec | 13.5 | 13 | 49% / 50% | 61 | over |
| 2025 W6 | Rec yds | 25.5 | 21 | 42% / 50% | 71 | over |
| 2025 W6 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 48% / 56% | 3 | over |
| 2025 W5 | Any TD | – | 23% TD chance | 23% / 17% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W5 | Long rec | 11.5 | 11 | 47% / 52% | 11 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Rec yds | 18.5 | 15 | 43% / 50% | 53 | over |
| 2025 W5 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 55% / 61% | 7 | over |
| 2025 W4 | Any TD | – | 20% TD chance | 20% / 17% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W4 | Long rec | 11.5 | 10 | 45% / 49% | 16 | over |
| 2025 W4 | Rec yds | 16.5 | 14 | 45% / 48% | 32 | over |
| 2025 W4 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 54% / 59% | 3 | over |
| 2025 W3 | Any TD | – | 31% TD chance | 31% / 22% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Long rec | 12.5 | 11 | 46% / 51% | 23 | over |
| 2025 W3 | Rec yds | 19.5 | 17 | 46% / 50% | 23 | over |
| 2025 W3 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 37% / 42% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Any TD | – | 16% TD chance | 16% / 18% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W2 | Long rec | 13.5 | 9.1 | 34% / 48% | 19 | over |
| 2025 W2 | Rec yds | 19.5 | 13 | 37% / 48% | 26 | over |
| 2025 W2 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 34% / 41% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Any TD | – | 30% TD chance | 30% / 21% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Long rec | 13.5 | 13 | 49% / 48% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Rec yds | 22.5 | 25 | 53% / 48% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 58% / 45% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W18 | Any TD | – | 10% TD chance | 10% / 10% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W17 | Any TD | – | 12% TD chance | 12% / 10% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W17 | Rec yds | 10.5 | 10 | 49% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W17 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 45% / 39% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W16 | Any TD | – | 9% TD chance | 9% / 11% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W15 | Any TD | – | 9% TD chance | 9% / 12% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W14 | Any TD | – | 10% TD chance | 10% / 15% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W14 | Rec yds | 11.5 | 11 | 49% / 49% | 13 | over |
| 2024 W14 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 48% / 46% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W13 | Any TD | – | 8% TD chance | 8% / 13% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W12 | Any TD | – | 11% TD chance | 11% / 24% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W12 | Rec yds | 27.5 | 11 | 24% / 49% | 19 | under |
| 2024 W12 | Rec | 2.5 | 1 | 27% / 56% | 3 | over |
| 2024 W11 | Any TD | – | 12% TD chance | 12% / 24% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W11 | Rec yds | 28.5 | 15 | 28% / 50% | 15 | under |
| 2024 W11 | Rec | 3.5 | 2 | 17% / 40% | 2 | under |
| 2024 W9 | Any TD | – | 11% TD chance | 11% / 20% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W9 | Rec yds | 22.5 | 13 | 34% / 51% | 27 | over |
| 2024 W9 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 31% / 47% | 4 | over |
| 2024 W8 | Any TD | – | 6% TD chance | 6% / 9% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W7 | Any TD | – | 6% TD chance | 6% / 9% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W6 | Any TD | – | 6% TD chance | 6% / 11% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W6 | Rec yds | 2.5 | 1.8 | 48% / 51% | 13 | over |
| 2024 W5 | Any TD | – | 7% TD chance | 7% / 11% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W5 | Rec yds | 4.5 | 0.9 | 40% / 50% | 13 | over |
| 2024 W4 | Any TD | – | 4% TD chance | 4% / 7% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W3 | Any TD | – | 4% TD chance | 4% / 10% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W2 | Any TD | – | 7% TD chance | 7% / 13% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W1 | Any TD | – | – | – / 7% | 0 | under |
Our calls
- 2026 W5 Under 24.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest (after the fact)) …
- 2026 W4 Under 30.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W4 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W3 Over 20.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W3 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W1 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W1 Over 25.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W1 Over 2.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2025 W18 Under 37.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W18 Under 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W17 Over 31.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W17 Under 31.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W17 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W16 Under 30.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W16 Under 30.5 rec yds (Short week, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W16 Under 30.5 rec yds (Wind 15+ mph, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W16 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W16 Under 0.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W15 Over 14.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W14 Under 14.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W14 Under 29.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W14 Under 29.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W14 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W13 Under 27.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W12 Under 25.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W12 Over 25.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W12 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W11 Under 13.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W11 Under 25.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W11 Under 25.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W11 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W10 Under 14.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W10 Over 27.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W10 Under 27.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W10 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W9 Under 27.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W9 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W7 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W7 Under 13.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W7 Under 24.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W7 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W6 Under 25.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W6 Under 25.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W6 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W5 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W5 Under 11.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W5 Under 18.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W5 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W4 Under 16.5 rec yds (Short week, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W4 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W3 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W2 Under 13.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W2 Under 19.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W2 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W1 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W1 Over 22.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W1 Over 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W17 Under 10.5 rec yds (Short week, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W17 Over 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
For information and entertainment only; not betting advice. Lines are a pregame consensus of US sportsbooks via The Odds API and change quickly. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
How this works
Lines are the median across US books about an hour before kickoff. Projections are rolling-origin: made only from data before that week. Players who did not play are void.
Sources: The Odds API (US sportsbooks), nflverseFull methodology