RB · WAS · 112 lines since 2023
Austin Ekeler Player Props
Closing consensus lines for Austin Ekeler, what he did, and what our model projected before the game.
2026 Week 5
- Anytime TD priced at 15% — we make it 17%
Over/under record by market
- Rushing yards over 10, under 16 (26 graded)
- Receiving yards over 13, under 13 (26 graded)
- Receptions over 8, under 18 (26 graded)
- Anytime TD over 8, under 21 (29 graded)
- Rush attempts over 1, under 1 (2 graded)
- Longest reception over 1, under 1 (2 graded)
Our calls on him: model 41–36 · Short week 3–0 · Screens 0–1 · Pre-snap motion 3–2 · Missed tackles 9–5 · Starters out on defense 2–2 · Light boxes 0–1 · Dome team outdoors 3–2 · Explosive plays 4–1
Line vs actual vs our projection
| Week | Market | Line | We projected | P(over) us / market | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 W5 | Any TD | – | 17% TD chance | 17% / 15% | – | … |
| 2026 W4 | Any TD | – | 52% TD chance | 52% / 13% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Any TD | – | 41% TD chance | 41% / 31% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Long rec | 11.5 | 8.6 | 35% / 51% | 4 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Rec yds | 23.5 | 12 | 26% / 50% | 7 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 36% / 60% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Rush att | 5.5 | 8 | 76% / 53% | 8 | over |
| 2025 W2 | Rush yds | 21.5 | 33 | 68% / 51% | 17 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Any TD | – | 60% TD chance | 60% / 40% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Long rec | 12.5 | 13 | 51% / 48% | 15 | over |
| 2025 W1 | Rec yds | 23.5 | 22 | 48% / 51% | 31 | over |
| 2025 W1 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 57% / 58% | 3 | over |
| 2025 W1 | Rush att | 6.5 | 15 | 96% / 54% | 6 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Rush yds | 27.5 | 65 | 90% / 50% | 26 | under |
| 2024 W18 | Any TD | – | 42% TD chance | 42% / 31% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W12 | Any TD | – | 45% TD chance | 45% / 38% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W12 | Rec yds | 21.5 | 17 | 41% / 51% | 2 | under |
| 2024 W12 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 40% / 51% | 2 | under |
| 2024 W12 | Rush yds | 22.5 | 36 | 72% / 50% | 22 | under |
| 2024 W11 | Any TD | – | 46% TD chance | 46% / 36% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W11 | Rec yds | 16.5 | 13 | 41% / 50% | 89 | over |
| 2024 W11 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 35% / 43% | 8 | over |
| 2024 W11 | Rush yds | 23.5 | 35 | 67% / 49% | 7 | under |
| 2024 W10 | Any TD | – | 45% TD chance | 45% / 50% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W10 | Rec yds | 24.5 | 16 | 35% / 53% | 7 | under |
| 2024 W10 | Rec | 3.5 | 2 | 25% / 46% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W10 | Rush yds | 44.5 | 36 | 38% / 50% | 44 | under |
| 2024 W9 | Any TD | – | 46% TD chance | 46% / 47% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W9 | Rec yds | 20.5 | 13 | 34% / 51% | 41 | over |
| 2024 W9 | Rec | 3.5 | 2 | 18% / 41% | 3 | under |
| 2024 W9 | Rush yds | 55.5 | 40 | 30% / 52% | 42 | under |
| 2024 W8 | Any TD | – | 30% TD chance | 30% / 26% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W8 | Rec yds | 19.5 | 13 | 36% / 50% | 6 | under |
| 2024 W8 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 33% / 55% | 2 | under |
| 2024 W8 | Rush yds | 20.5 | 24 | 58% / 50% | 52 | over |
| 2024 W7 | Any TD | – | 49% TD chance | 49% / 45% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W7 | Rec yds | 17.5 | 22 | 56% / 50% | 3 | under |
| 2024 W7 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 46% / 45% | 2 | under |
| 2024 W7 | Rush yds | 25.5 | 45 | 74% / 51% | 17 | under |
| 2024 W6 | Any TD | – | 33% TD chance | 33% / 44% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W6 | Rec yds | 21.5 | 16 | 39% / 50% | 47 | over |
| 2024 W6 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 43% / 59% | 4 | over |
| 2024 W6 | Rush yds | 43.5 | 22 | 19% / 49% | 21 | under |
| 2024 W5 | Any TD | – | 38% TD chance | 38% / 32% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W5 | Rec yds | 14.5 | 16 | 55% / 50% | 30 | over |
| 2024 W5 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 44% / 44% | 2 | under |
| 2024 W5 | Rush yds | 21.5 | 23 | 54% / 50% | 67 | over |
| 2024 W3 | Any TD | – | 34% TD chance | 34% / 23% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W3 | Rec yds | 18.5 | 15 | 41% / 52% | 22 | over |
| 2024 W3 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 44% / 56% | 2 | under |
| 2024 W3 | Rush yds | 19.5 | 23 | 58% / 49% | 35 | over |
| 2024 W2 | Any TD | – | 41% TD chance | 41% / 32% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W2 | Rec yds | 19.5 | 16 | 41% / 51% | 47 | over |
| 2024 W2 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 43% / 57% | 3 | over |
| 2024 W2 | Rush yds | 18.5 | 25 | 62% / 49% | 38 | over |
| 2024 W1 | Any TD | – | 38% TD chance | 38% / 31% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W1 | Rec yds | 20.5 | 17 | 44% / 49% | 52 | over |
| 2024 W1 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 35% / 41% | 4 | over |
| 2024 W1 | Rush yds | 27.5 | 30 | 54% / 49% | 10 | under |
| 2023 W18 | Any TD | – | 46% TD chance | 46% / 45% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W17 | Any TD | – | 39% TD chance | 39% / 42% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W17 | Rec yds | 30.5 | 21 | 33% / 49% | 4 | under |
| 2023 W17 | Rec | 4.5 | 3 | 27% / 42% | 1 | under |
| 2023 W17 | Rush yds | 45.5 | 39 | 40% / 51% | 46 | over |
| 2023 W16 | Any TD | – | 35% TD chance | 35% / 38% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W16 | Rec yds | 30.5 | 17 | 24% / 50% | 21 | under |
| 2023 W16 | Rec | 4.5 | 3 | 19% / 42% | 3 | under |
| 2023 W16 | Rush yds | 38.5 | 32 | 39% / 51% | 65 | over |
| 2023 W15 | Any TD | – | 40% TD chance | 40% / 42% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W15 | Rec yds | 29.5 | 22 | 36% / 51% | 29 | under |
| 2023 W15 | Rec | 4.5 | 3 | 28% / 47% | 4 | under |
| 2023 W15 | Rush yds | 47.5 | 40 | 39% / 47% | 9 | under |
| 2023 W14 | Any TD | – | 50% TD chance | 50% / 54% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W14 | Rec yds | 27.5 | 19 | 36% / 51% | 49 | over |
| 2023 W14 | Rec | 3.5 | 2 | 28% / 57% | 5 | over |
| 2023 W14 | Rush yds | 45.5 | 47 | 52% / 50% | 51 | over |
| 2023 W13 | Any TD | – | 45% TD chance | 45% / 57% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W13 | Rec yds | 29.5 | 20 | 33% / 48% | 9 | under |
| 2023 W13 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 34% / 56% | 2 | under |
| 2023 W13 | Rush yds | 51.5 | 47 | 44% / 50% | 18 | under |
| 2023 W12 | Any TD | – | 52% TD chance | 52% / 63% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W12 | Rec yds | 33.5 | 22 | 32% / 50% | 32 | under |
| 2023 W12 | Rec | 4.5 | 3 | 19% / 45% | 5 | over |
| 2023 W12 | Rush yds | 48.5 | 46 | 47% / 50% | 32 | under |
| 2023 W11 | Any TD | – | 57% TD chance | 57% / 57% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W11 | Rec yds | 33.5 | 26 | 38% / 50% | 6 | under |
| 2023 W11 | Rec | 4.5 | 3 | 25% / 47% | 2 | under |
| 2023 W11 | Rush yds | 55.5 | 53 | 47% / 49% | 64 | over |
| 2023 W10 | Any TD | – | 49% TD chance | 49% / 50% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W10 | Rec yds | 36.5 | 22 | 29% / 50% | 48 | over |
| 2023 W10 | Rec | 4.5 | 3 | 22% / 52% | 4 | under |
| 2023 W10 | Rush yds | 50.5 | 38 | 31% / 49% | 67 | over |
| 2023 W9 | Any TD | – | 49% TD chance | 49% / 48% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W9 | Rec yds | 34.5 | 25 | 34% / 50% | 23 | under |
| 2023 W9 | Rec | 4.5 | 3 | 28% / 54% | 2 | under |
| 2023 W9 | Rush yds | 48.5 | 48 | 49% / 49% | 47 | under |
| 2023 W8 | Any TD | – | 58% TD chance | 58% / 60% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W8 | Rec yds | 32.5 | 22 | 32% / 50% | 94 | over |
| 2023 W8 | Rec | 4.5 | 3 | 19% / 45% | 7 | over |
| 2023 W8 | Rush yds | 50.5 | 41 | 38% / 50% | 29 | under |
| 2023 W7 | Any TD | – | 45% TD chance | 45% / 47% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W7 | Rec yds | 31.5 | 20 | 30% / 49% | 1 | under |
| 2023 W7 | Rec | 4.5 | 3 | 26% / 51% | 1 | under |
| 2023 W7 | Rush yds | 46.5 | 36 | 35% / 50% | 45 | under |
| 2023 W6 | Any TD | – | 27% TD chance | 27% / 58% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W6 | Rec yds | 33.5 | 13 | 16% / 51% | 35 | over |
| 2023 W6 | Rec | 4.5 | 2 | 11% / 50% | 4 | under |
| 2023 W6 | Rush yds | 50.5 | 30 | 24% / 51% | 27 | under |
| 2023 W1 | Any TD | – | – | – / 57% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W1 | Rec yds | 32.5 | – | – / 50% | 47 | over |
| 2023 W1 | Rec | 4.5 | – | – / 51% | 4 | under |
| 2023 W1 | Rush yds | 50.5 | – | – / 50% | 117 | over |
Our calls
- 2026 W4 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2025 W2 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W2 Under 11.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W2 Under 23.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W2 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W2 Over 5.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W2 Over 21.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W2 Under 21.5 rush yds (Short week, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W1 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W1 Over 6.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W1 Over 27.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W18 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W12 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W12 Under 21.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W12 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W12 Over 2.5 receptions (Screens, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W12 Over 22.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W12 Over 22.5 rush yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W11 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W11 Under 16.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W11 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W11 Over 23.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W11 Under 23.5 rush yds (Short week, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W10 Under 24.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W10 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W10 Under 44.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W10 Under 44.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W9 Under 20.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W9 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W9 Under 55.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W8 Under 19.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W8 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W8 Under 20.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W8 Over 20.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W7 Over 17.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W7 Over 25.5 rush yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W7 Over 25.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W7 Over 25.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W6 Under 21.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W6 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W6 Under 43.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W6 Under 43.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W5 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W5 Over 21.5 rush yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W5 Over 21.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W3 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W3 Under 18.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W3 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W3 Under 19.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W3 Over 19.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W2 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W2 Under 19.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W2 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W2 Under 18.5 rush yds (Light boxes, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W2 Over 18.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W1 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W1 Under 20.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W1 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W1 Under 27.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ✅
- 2023 W17 Under 30.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
For information and entertainment only; not betting advice. Lines are a pregame consensus of US sportsbooks via The Odds API and change quickly. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
How this works
Lines are the median across US books about an hour before kickoff. Projections are rolling-origin: made only from data before that week. Players who did not play are void.
Sources: The Odds API (US sportsbooks), nflverseFull methodology