TE · HOU · 54 lines since 2023
Cade Stover Player Props
Closing consensus lines for Cade Stover, what he did, and what our model projected before the game.
2026 Week 5
- Anytime TD priced at 5% — we make it 5%
Over/under record by market
- Receiving yards over 4, under 7 (11 graded)
- Receptions over 3, under 4 (7 graded)
- Anytime TD over 1, under 26 (27 graded)
- Longest reception over 3, under 2 (5 graded)
Our calls on him: model 9–9 · Freezing 1–0 · Dome team outdoors 3–0 · Short week 3–0 · Starters out on defense 1–1
Line vs actual vs our projection
| Week | Market | Line | We projected | P(over) us / market | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 W5 | Any TD | – | 5% TD chance | 5% / 5% | – | … |
| 2026 W4 | Any TD | – | 6% TD chance | 6% / 6% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Any TD | – | 6% TD chance | 6% / 6% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Any TD | – | 9% TD chance | 9% / 9% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Any TD | – | 12% TD chance | 12% / 7% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W18 | Long rec | 7.5 | 4.7 | 40% / 51% | 9 | over |
| 2025 W18 | Rec yds | 9.5 | 5.2 | 37% / 49% | 9 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Any TD | – | 12% TD chance | 12% / 11% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Long rec | 7.5 | 3.8 | 36% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Rec yds | 8.5 | 4.1 | 37% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 30% / 41% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Any TD | – | 18% TD chance | 18% / 13% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Rec yds | 6.5 | 4.5 | 45% / 43% | 7 | over |
| 2025 W16 | Rec | 0.5 | 1 | 61% / 58% | 2 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Any TD | – | 14% TD chance | 14% / 11% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Any TD | – | 9% TD chance | 9% / 8% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Rec yds | 3.5 | 3.5 | 50% / 51% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Any TD | – | 7% TD chance | 7% / 10% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Long rec | 3.5 | 3.3 | 49% / 51% | 11 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Rec yds | 3.5 | 3.5 | 50% / 51% | 16 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Rec | 0.5 | 1 | 59% / 58% | 2 | over |
| 2025 W12 | Any TD | – | 6% TD chance | 6% / 8% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Long rec | 0.5 | 1.7 | 54% / 45% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Rec yds | 0.5 | 1.7 | 54% / 45% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Rec | 0.5 | 1 | 55% / 47% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Any TD | – | 6% TD chance | 6% / 10% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Any TD | – | 11% TD chance | 11% / 9% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Long rec | 9.5 | 5.7 | 37% / 48% | 10 | over |
| 2024 W18 | Any TD | – | 5% TD chance | 5% / 10% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W17 | Any TD | – | 7% TD chance | 7% / 14% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W17 | Rec yds | 6.5 | 4.4 | 44% / 51% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W17 | Rec | 0.5 | 1 | 61% / 66% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W16 | Any TD | – | – | – / 13% | – | void |
| 2024 W15 | Any TD | – | 7% TD chance | 7% / 14% | – | void |
| 2024 W15 | Rec yds | 10.5 | 3.4 | 34% / 50% | – | void |
| 2024 W13 | Any TD | – | 7% TD chance | 7% / 13% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W13 | Rec yds | 11.5 | 3.6 | 32% / 50% | 4 | under |
| 2024 W13 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 25% / 44% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W12 | Any TD | – | 6% TD chance | 6% / 10% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W12 | Rec yds | 5.5 | 1.0 | 39% / 51% | 26 | over |
| 2024 W11 | Any TD | – | 5% TD chance | 5% / 8% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W11 | Rec yds | 5.5 | 2.2 | 43% / 50% | 15 | over |
| 2024 W10 | Any TD | – | 4% TD chance | 4% / 8% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W9 | Any TD | – | 2% TD chance | 2% / 10% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W9 | Rec yds | 7.5 | 0.9 | 34% / 51% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W9 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 20% / 34% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W8 | Any TD | – | 2% TD chance | 2% / 10% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W7 | Any TD | – | 2% TD chance | 2% / 9% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W6 | Any TD | – | 3% TD chance | 3% / 7% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W5 | Any TD | – | 3% TD chance | 3% / 10% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W4 | Any TD | – | 3% TD chance | 3% / 11% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W3 | Any TD | – | 2% TD chance | 2% / 13% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W2 | Any TD | – | 2% TD chance | 2% / 10% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W1 | Any TD | – | – | – / 5% | 0 | under |
Our calls
- 2026 W1 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2025 W18 Under 7.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W18 Under 9.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W17 Under 7.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W17 Under 8.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W17 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W16 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W14 Under 3.5 rec yds (Freezing, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W14 Under 3.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W12 Over 0.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W12 Over 0.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W12 Under 0.5 rec yds (Short week, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W12 Over 0.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W1 Under 9.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W17 Under 6.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W17 Under 6.5 rec yds (Short week, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W15 Under 10.5 rec yds (model, backtest) void
- 2024 W13 Under 11.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W13 Under 11.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W13 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W12 Over 5.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W12 Under 5.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W11 Under 5.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W9 Over 7.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W9 Under 7.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W9 Under 7.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W9 Under 7.5 rec yds (Short week, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W9 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
For information and entertainment only; not betting advice. Lines are a pregame consensus of US sportsbooks via The Odds API and change quickly. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
How this works
Lines are the median across US books about an hour before kickoff. Projections are rolling-origin: made only from data before that week. Players who did not play are void.
Sources: The Odds API (US sportsbooks), nflverseFull methodology