WR · MIA · 7 lines since 2023
Caleb Douglas Player Props
Closing consensus lines for Caleb Douglas, what he did, and what our model projected before the game.
2026 Week 5
- Anytime TD priced at 15% — we make it 21%
Over/under record by market
- Receiving yards over 1, under 1 (2 graded)
- Receptions over 1, under 1 (2 graded)
- Anytime TD over 0, under 2 (2 graded)
Our calls on him: model 0–2
Line vs actual vs our projection
| Week | Market | Line | We projected | P(over) us / market | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 W5 | Any TD | – | 21% TD chance | 21% / 15% | – | … |
| 2026 W2 | Any TD | – | 19% TD chance | 19% / 19% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Rec yds | 38.5 | 46 | 58% / 50% | 19 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Rec | 2.5 | 5 | 80% / 57% | 2 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Any TD | – | – | – / 17% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Rec yds | 26.5 | – | – / 50% | 94 | over |
| 2026 W1 | Rec | 2.5 | – | – / 42% | 5 | over |
Our calls
- 2026 W2 Over 38.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W2 Over 2.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
For information and entertainment only; not betting advice. Lines are a pregame consensus of US sportsbooks via The Odds API and change quickly. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
How this works
Lines are the median across US books about an hour before kickoff. Projections are rolling-origin: made only from data before that week. Players who did not play are void.
Sources: The Odds API (US sportsbooks), nflverseFull methodology