QB · TEN · 222 lines since 2023

Cam Ward Player Props

Closing consensus lines for Cam Ward, what he did, and what our model projected before the game.

2026 Week 5

Anytime TD priced at 14% — we make it 9%
Line 31.5 pass attempts — we project 31 (P(over) 46%)
Line 19.5 completions — we project 20 (P(over) 52%)
Line 0.5 pass TDs — we project 1 (P(over) 54%)
Line 189.5 pass yds — we project 163 (P(over) 34%)
Line 10.5 rush yds — we project 9.6 (P(over) 47%)

Over/under record by market

Passing yards over 18, under 16 (34 graded)
Passing TDs over 17, under 17 (34 graded)
Rushing yards over 15, under 19 (34 graded)
Anytime TD over 4, under 30 (34 graded)
Pass attempts over 19, under 11 (30 graded)
Completions over 20, under 10 (30 graded)
Rush attempts over 8, under 12 (20 graded)

Our calls on him: model 31–31 · Low total (40.5 or less) 7–8 · Man coverage 0–1 · Big underdog (6.5+) 8–10 · Starters out on defense 2–1 · Pressure 2–2 · Wind 15+ mph 0–1

Line vs actual vs our projection

Cam Ward prop line history
Week	Market	Line	We projected	P(over) us / market	Actual	Result
2026 W5	Any TD	–	9% TD chance	9% / 14%	–	…
2026 W5	Pass att	31.5	31	46% / 49%	–	…
2026 W5	Cmp	19.5	20	52% / 49%	–	…
2026 W5	Pass TDs	0.5	1	54% / 60%	–	…
2026 W5	Pass yds	189.5	163	34% / 50%	–	…
2026 W5	Rush yds	10.5	9.6	47% / 51%	–	…
2026 W4	Any TD	–	9% TD chance	9% / 14%	0	under
2026 W4	Pass TDs	0.5	1	54% / 59%	1	over
2026 W4	Pass yds	186.5	171	41% / 50%	222	over
2026 W4	Rush yds	10.5	7.5	39% / 49%	27	over
2026 W3	Any TD	–	10% TD chance	10% / 17%	0	under
2026 W3	Pass TDs	0.5	1	57% / 62%	1	over
2026 W3	Pass yds	176.5	171	47% / 50%	181	over
2026 W3	Rush yds	13.5	10	40% / 50%	2	under
2026 W2	Any TD	–	8% TD chance	8% / 11%	1	over
2026 W2	Pass TDs	0.5	1	58% / 62%	0	under
2026 W2	Pass yds	185.5	173	42% / 50%	183	under
2026 W2	Rush yds	11.5	9.5	44% / 50%	7	under
2026 W1	Any TD	–	12% TD chance	12% / 12%	0	under
2026 W1	Pass TDs	1.5	1	35% / 33%	1	under
2026 W1	Pass yds	201.5	195	46% / 50%	140	under
2026 W1	Rush yds	10.5	11	50% / 50%	21	over
2025 W18	Any TD	–	8% TD chance	8% / 7%	1	over
2025 W18	Pass att	34.5	33	42% / 50%	3	under
2025 W18	Cmp	21.5	20	41% / 47%	3	under
2025 W18	Pass TDs	1.5	1	28% / 33%	0	under
2025 W18	Pass yds	191.5	182	44% / 51%	52	under
2025 W18	Rush att	2.5	2	43% / 47%	2	under
2025 W18	Rush yds	8.5	5.6	38% / 49%	11	over
2025 W17	Any TD	–	9% TD chance	9% / 11%	0	under
2025 W17	Pass att	30.5	28	36% / 49%	40	over
2025 W17	Cmp	19.5	18	35% / 46%	21	over
2025 W17	Pass TDs	1.5	1	30% / 33%	2	over
2025 W17	Pass yds	186.5	166	38% / 50%	251	over
2025 W17	Rush att	2.5	3	58% / 51%	2	under
2025 W17	Rush yds	6.5	8.2	57% / 51%	10	over
2025 W16	Any TD	–	8% TD chance	8% / 13%	0	under
2025 W16	Pass att	31.5	29	37% / 51%	28	under
2025 W16	Cmp	19.5	18	38% / 46%	21	over
2025 W16	Pass TDs	0.5	1	61% / 62%	2	over
2025 W16	Pass yds	179.5	162	40% / 51%	228	over
2025 W16	Rush att	2.5	2	50% / 58%	4	over
2025 W16	Rush yds	8.5	6.9	44% / 49%	9	over
2025 W15	Any TD	–	7% TD chance	7% / 8%	0	under
2025 W15	Pass att	33.5	33	45% / 51%	29	under
2025 W15	Cmp	21.5	20	41% / 48%	18	under
2025 W15	Pass TDs	0.5	1	54% / 64%	2	over
2025 W15	Pass yds	200.5	173	35% / 49%	170	under
2025 W15	Rush att	2.5	2	49% / 53%	1	under
2025 W15	Rush yds	8.5	6.9	44% / 50%	2	under
2025 W14	Any TD	–	7% TD chance	7% / 10%	0	under
2025 W14	Any TD	–	7% TD chance	7% / 10%	0	under
2025 W14	Pass att	29.5	29	49% / 50%	28	under
2025 W14	Pass att	29.5	29	49% / 51%	28	under
2025 W14	Cmp	17.5	18	57% / 46%	14	under
2025 W14	Cmp	17.5	18	57% / 47%	14	under
2025 W14	Pass TDs	0.5	1	52% / 58%	2	over
2025 W14	Pass TDs	0.5	1	52% / 57%	2	over
2025 W14	Pass yds	168.5	146	37% / 49%	117	under
2025 W14	Pass yds	168.5	146	37% / 50%	117	under
2025 W14	Rush att	3.5	3	40% / 43%	2	under
2025 W14	Rush yds	11.5	8.3	40% / 51%	4	under
2025 W14	Rush yds	11.5	8.3	40% / 51%	4	under
2025 W13	Any TD	–	9% TD chance	9% / 11%	0	under
2025 W13	Any TD	–	9% TD chance	9% / 11%	0	under
2025 W13	Pass att	33.5	33	48% / 51%	38	over
2025 W13	Pass att	33.5	33	48% / 52%	38	over
2025 W13	Cmp	19.5	21	59% / 50%	24	over
2025 W13	Cmp	20.5	21	53% / 47%	24	over
2025 W13	Pass TDs	1.5	1	28% / 33%	0	under
2025 W13	Pass TDs	0.5	1	62% / 69%	0	under
2025 W13	Pass yds	205.5	197	46% / 50%	141	under
2025 W13	Pass yds	204.5	197	46% / 50%	141	under
2025 W13	Rush att	3.5	3	36% / 41%	1	under
2025 W13	Rush yds	15.5	9.6	34% / 51%	7	under
2025 W13	Rush yds	15.5	9.6	34% / 50%	7	under
2025 W12	Any TD	–	5% TD chance	5% / 11%	1	over
2025 W12	Any TD	–	5% TD chance	5% / 11%	1	over
2025 W12	Pass att	32.5	32	49% / 49%	42	over
2025 W12	Pass att	32.5	32	49% / 51%	42	over
2025 W12	Cmp	18.5	20	62% / 52%	28	over
2025 W12	Cmp	18.5	20	62% / 52%	28	over
2025 W12	Pass TDs	0.5	0	50% / 55%	1	over
2025 W12	Pass TDs	0.5	0	50% / 56%	1	over
2025 W12	Pass yds	184.5	164	38% / 50%	256	over
2025 W12	Pass yds	185.5	164	38% / 49%	256	over
2025 W12	Rush att	2.5	2	49% / 46%	6	over
2025 W12	Rush yds	8.5	5.8	39% / 50%	37	over
2025 W12	Rush yds	7.5	5.8	43% / 51%	37	over
2025 W11	Any TD	–	8% TD chance	8% / 12%	0	under
2025 W11	Any TD	–	8% TD chance	8% / 11%	0	under
2025 W11	Pass att	31.5	30	39% / 47%	37	over
2025 W11	Pass att	31.5	30	39% / 48%	37	over
2025 W11	Cmp	17.5	18	55% / 47%	24	over
2025 W11	Cmp	17.5	18	55% / 48%	24	over
2025 W11	Pass TDs	0.5	1	58% / 58%	1	over
2025 W11	Pass TDs	0.5	1	58% / 58%	1	over
2025 W11	Pass yds	180.5	161	38% / 50%	194	over
2025 W11	Pass yds	181.5	161	37% / 53%	194	over
2025 W11	Rush att	2.5	2	48% / 44%	3	over
2025 W11	Rush att	2.5	2	48% / 46%	3	over
2025 W11	Rush yds	5.5	5.3	49% / 49%	33	over
2025 W11	Rush yds	5.5	5.3	49% / 50%	33	over
2025 W9	Any TD	–	7% TD chance	7% / 11%	0	under
2025 W9	Any TD	–	7% TD chance	7% / 11%	0	under
2025 W9	Pass att	33.5	31	39% / 49%	21	under
2025 W9	Pass att	32.5	31	44% / 52%	21	under
2025 W9	Cmp	19.5	19	47% / 52%	12	under
2025 W9	Cmp	20.5	19	41% / 47%	12	under
2025 W9	Pass TDs	0.5	1	62% / 63%	0	under
2025 W9	Pass TDs	0.5	1	62% / 63%	0	under
2025 W9	Pass yds	203.5	178	37% / 49%	145	under
2025 W9	Pass yds	200.5	178	39% / 50%	145	under
2025 W9	Rush yds	5.5	4.6	46% / 49%	6	over
2025 W9	Rush yds	5.5	4.6	46% / 50%	6	over
2025 W8	Any TD	–	7% TD chance	7% / 11%	0	under
2025 W8	Any TD	–	7% TD chance	7% / 9%	0	under
2025 W8	Pass att	34.5	35	51% / 53%	38	over
2025 W8	Pass att	34.5	35	51% / 53%	38	over
2025 W8	Cmp	20.5	21	55% / 50%	22	over
2025 W8	Cmp	20.5	21	55% / 49%	22	over
2025 W8	Pass TDs	0.5	1	56% / 65%	1	over
2025 W8	Pass TDs	0.5	1	56% / 65%	1	over
2025 W8	Pass yds	209.5	192	41% / 52%	259	over
2025 W8	Pass yds	208.5	192	41% / 50%	259	over
2025 W8	Rush att	2.5	2	42% / 48%	2	under
2025 W8	Rush yds	5.5	4.5	46% / 49%	4	under
2025 W8	Rush yds	5.5	4.5	46% / 50%	4	under
2025 W7	Any TD	–	8% TD chance	8% / 11%	0	under
2025 W7	Any TD	–	8% TD chance	8% / 10%	0	under
2025 W7	Pass att	31.5	31	46% / 50%	34	over
2025 W7	Pass att	31.5	31	46% / 49%	34	over
2025 W7	Cmp	18.5	19	52% / 52%	25	over
2025 W7	Cmp	18.5	19	52% / 51%	25	over
2025 W7	Pass TDs	1.5	1	25% / 32%	1	under
2025 W7	Pass TDs	1.5	1	25% / 33%	1	under
2025 W7	Pass yds	194.5	176	40% / 49%	255	over
2025 W7	Pass yds	194.5	176	40% / 50%	255	over
2025 W7	Rush att	2.5	3	58% / –	0	under
2025 W7	Rush att	2.5	3	58% / 44%	0	under
2025 W7	Rush yds	7.5	6.8	48% / 51%	0	under
2025 W7	Rush yds	8.5	6.8	44% / 51%	0	under
2025 W6	Any TD	–	10% TD chance	10% / 14%	0	under
2025 W6	Any TD	–	10% TD chance	10% / 15%	0	under
2025 W6	Pass att	31.5	31	48% / 49%	38	over
2025 W6	Pass att	30.5	31	54% / 49%	38	over
2025 W6	Cmp	18.5	19	51% / 51%	26	over
2025 W6	Cmp	18.5	19	51% / 50%	26	over
2025 W6	Pass TDs	0.5	1	62% / 67%	1	over
2025 W6	Pass TDs	0.5	1	62% / 66%	1	over
2025 W6	Pass yds	194.5	188	46% / 51%	222	over
2025 W6	Pass yds	193.5	188	47% / 50%	222	over
2025 W6	Rush att	3.5	3	46% / 41%	0	under
2025 W6	Rush yds	9.5	9.0	48% / 50%	0	under
2025 W6	Rush yds	8.5	9.0	52% / 50%	0	under
2025 W5	Any TD	–	9% TD chance	9% / 11%	0	under
2025 W5	Any TD	–	9% TD chance	9% / 11%	0	under
2025 W5	Pass att	31.5	32	52% / 48%	39	over
2025 W5	Pass att	30.5	32	58% / 51%	39	over
2025 W5	Cmp	17.5	19	63% / 53%	21	over
2025 W5	Cmp	17.5	19	63% / 52%	21	over
2025 W5	Pass TDs	0.5	1	60% / 61%	0	under
2025 W5	Pass TDs	0.5	1	60% / 60%	0	under
2025 W5	Pass yds	180.5	179	49% / 50%	265	over
2025 W5	Pass yds	182.5	179	48% / 51%	265	over
2025 W5	Rush att	2.5	3	54% / 53%	5	over
2025 W5	Rush att	2.5	3	54% / 52%	5	over
2025 W5	Rush yds	10.5	8.0	42% / 50%	-6	under
2025 W5	Rush yds	10.5	8.0	42% / 50%	-6	under
2025 W4	Any TD	–	8% TD chance	8% / 13%	0	under
2025 W4	Any TD	–	8% TD chance	8% / 13%	0	under
2025 W4	Pass att	31.5	32	53% / 52%	26	under
2025 W4	Pass att	32.5	32	49% / 49%	26	under
2025 W4	Cmp	18.5	20	59% / 50%	10	under
2025 W4	Cmp	18.5	20	59% / 52%	10	under
2025 W4	Pass TDs	0.5	1	58% / 60%	0	under
2025 W4	Pass TDs	0.5	1	58% / 62%	0	under
2025 W4	Pass yds	186.5	178	46% / 50%	108	under
2025 W4	Pass yds	187.5	178	45% / 50%	108	under
2025 W4	Rush att	2.5	3	57% / 42%	2	under
2025 W4	Rush yds	9.5	7.0	42% / 49%	22	over
2025 W4	Rush yds	9.5	7.0	42% / 49%	22	over
2025 W3	Any TD	–	9% TD chance	9% / 13%	0	under
2025 W3	Any TD	–	9% TD chance	9% / 14%	0	under
2025 W3	Pass att	30.5	31	55% / 52%	38	over
2025 W3	Pass att	31.5	31	50% / 48%	38	over
2025 W3	Cmp	19.5	19	47% / 47%	23	over
2025 W3	Cmp	19.5	19	47% / 47%	23	over
2025 W3	Pass TDs	1.5	1	31% / 35%	1	under
2025 W3	Pass TDs	1.5	1	31% / 36%	1	under
2025 W3	Pass yds	199.5	188	44% / 50%	219	over
2025 W3	Pass yds	198.5	188	45% / 50%	219	over
2025 W3	Rush att	2.5	3	54% / 58%	3	over
2025 W3	Rush yds	9.5	7.5	42% / 50%	12	over
2025 W3	Rush yds	10.5	7.5	39% / 50%	12	over
2025 W2	Any TD	–	10% TD chance	10% / 14%	0	under
2025 W2	Any TD	–	10% TD chance	10% / 13%	0	under
2025 W2	Pass att	31.5	31	48% / 49%	33	over
2025 W2	Pass att	31.5	31	48% / 49%	33	over
2025 W2	Cmp	18.5	19	57% / 50%	19	over
2025 W2	Cmp	18.5	19	57% / 50%	19	over
2025 W2	Pass TDs	0.5	1	64% / 64%	1	over
2025 W2	Pass TDs	0.5	1	64% / 66%	1	over
2025 W2	Pass yds	198.5	190	46% / 50%	175	under
2025 W2	Pass yds	199.5	190	45% / 50%	175	under
2025 W2	Rush att	2.5	2	49% / 51%	4	over
2025 W2	Rush yds	11.5	6.9	35% / 50%	8	under
2025 W2	Rush yds	12.5	6.9	32% / 49%	8	under
2025 W1	Any TD	–	–	– / 14%	0	under
2025 W1	Any TD	–	–	– / 12%	0	under
2025 W1	Pass att	31.5	–	– / 47%	28	under
2025 W1	Pass att	31.5	–	– / 47%	28	under
2025 W1	Cmp	19.5	–	– / 48%	12	under
2025 W1	Cmp	19.5	–	– / 47%	12	under
2025 W1	Pass TDs	0.5	–	– / 65%	0	under
2025 W1	Pass TDs	0.5	–	– / 65%	0	under
2025 W1	Pass yds	188.5	–	– / 50%	112	under
2025 W1	Pass yds	190.5	–	– / 50%	112	under
2025 W1	Rush att	3.5	–	– / 49%	0	under
2025 W1	Rush att	3.5	–	– / 51%	0	under
2025 W1	Rush yds	13.5	–	– / 50%	0	under
2025 W1	Rush yds	13.5	–	– / 51%	0	under

Our calls

2026 W4 Under 0.5 pass TDs (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
2026 W4 Under 186.5 pass yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
2026 W4 Under 10.5 rush yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
2026 W3 Under 0.5 pass TDs (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
2026 W3 Under 176.5 pass yds (Low total (40.5 or less), backtest (after the fact)) ❌
2026 W3 Under 13.5 rush yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
2026 W2 Under 185.5 pass yds (Low total (40.5 or less), backtest (after the fact)) ✅
2026 W2 Over 185.5 pass yds (Man coverage, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
2026 W2 Under 185.5 pass yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
2026 W2 Under 11.5 rush yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
2026 W1 Under 201.5 pass yds (Low total (40.5 or less), backtest (after the fact)) ✅
2025 W18 Over 34.5 pass attempts (Big underdog (6.5+), backtest) ❌
2025 W18 Under 34.5 pass attempts (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W18 Over 21.5 completions (Big underdog (6.5+), backtest) ❌
2025 W18 Under 21.5 completions (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W18 Under 1.5 pass TDs (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W18 Under 191.5 pass yds (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W18 Under 8.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W17 Under 30.5 pass attempts (Low total (40.5 or less), backtest) ❌
2025 W17 Under 30.5 pass attempts (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W17 Under 19.5 completions (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W17 Under 186.5 pass yds (Low total (40.5 or less), backtest) ❌
2025 W17 Under 186.5 pass yds (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W17 Over 2.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W17 Over 6.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W16 Under 31.5 pass attempts (Low total (40.5 or less), backtest) ✅
2025 W16 Under 31.5 pass attempts (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W16 Under 19.5 completions (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W16 Over 179.5 pass yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
2025 W16 Under 179.5 pass yds (Low total (40.5 or less), backtest) ❌
2025 W16 Under 179.5 pass yds (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W16 Under 2.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W16 Under 8.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W15 Over 33.5 pass attempts (Big underdog (6.5+), backtest) ❌
2025 W15 Under 33.5 pass attempts (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W15 Over 21.5 completions (Big underdog (6.5+), backtest) ❌
2025 W15 Under 21.5 completions (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W15 Over 21.5 completions (Pressure, backtest) ❌
2025 W15 Under 0.5 pass TDs (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W15 Under 200.5 pass yds (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W15 Over 200.5 pass yds (Pressure, backtest) ❌
2025 W15 Under 8.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W14 Under 29.5 pass attempts (Low total (40.5 or less), backtest) ✅
2025 W14 Over 17.5 completions (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W14 Under 17.5 completions (Pressure, backtest) ✅
2025 W14 Under 0.5 pass TDs (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W14 Under 168.5 pass yds (Low total (40.5 or less), backtest) ✅
2025 W14 Under 168.5 pass yds (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W14 Under 168.5 pass yds (Pressure, backtest) ✅
2025 W14 Under 11.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W13 Over 19.5 completions (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W13 Under 3.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W13 Under 15.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W12 Over 32.5 pass attempts (Big underdog (6.5+), backtest) ✅
2025 W12 Over 18.5 completions (Big underdog (6.5+), backtest) ✅
2025 W12 Over 18.5 completions (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W12 Under 0.5 pass TDs (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W12 Under 185.5 pass yds (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W12 Under 7.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W11 Under 31.5 pass attempts (Low total (40.5 or less), backtest) ❌

For information and entertainment only; not betting advice. Lines are a pregame consensus of US sportsbooks via The Odds API and change quickly. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

How this works

Lines are the median across US books about an hour before kickoff. Projections are rolling-origin: made only from data before that week. Players who did not play are void.

Sources: The Odds API (US sportsbooks), nflverseFull methodology