RB · CIN · 214 lines since 2023

Chase Brown Player Props

Closing consensus lines for Chase Brown, what he did, and what our model projected before the game.

2026 Week 5

Anytime TD priced at 61% — we make it 55%
Line 10.5 yds longest rec — we project 12 (P(over) 59%)
Line 22.5 rec yds — we project 25 (P(over) 56%)
Line 3.5 receptions — we project 4 (P(over) 54%)
Line 16.5 rush attempts — we project 16 (P(over) 48%)
Line 92.5 rush + rec yds — we project 98 (P(over) 55%)
Line 63.5 rush yds — we project 70 (P(over) 57%)

Over/under record by market

Rushing yards over 22, under 19 (41 graded)
Receiving yards over 20, under 21 (41 graded)
Receptions over 21, under 19 (40 graded)
Anytime TD over 17, under 31 (48 graded)
Rush attempts over 7, under 10 (17 graded)
Longest reception over 7, under 10 (17 graded)

Our calls on him: model 65–53 · Missed tackles 14–9 · Pre-snap motion 4–2 · Big favourite (6.5+) 1–1 · Starters out on defense 6–2 · Big underdog (6.5+) 3–2 · Short week 1–2 · Blitz-heavy defense 0–1

Line vs actual vs our projection

Chase Brown prop line history
Week	Market	Line	We projected	P(over) us / market	Actual	Result
2026 W5	Any TD	–	55% TD chance	55% / 61%	–	…
2026 W5	Long rec	10.5	12	59% / 49%	–	…
2026 W5	Rec yds	22.5	25	56% / 50%	–	…
2026 W5	Rec	3.5	4	54% / 55%	–	…
2026 W5	Rush att	16.5	16	48% / 47%	–	…
2026 W5	Rush+rec yds	92.5	98	55% / 50%	–	…
2026 W5	Rush yds	63.5	70	57% / 51%	–	…
2026 W4	Any TD	–	58% TD chance	58% / 59%	0	under
2026 W4	Rec yds	19.5	20	51% / 50%	71	over
2026 W4	Rec	3.5	3	39% / 44%	11	over
2026 W4	Rush yds	59.5	74	63% / 50%	10	under
2026 W3	Any TD	–	53% TD chance	53% / 52%	0	under
2026 W3	Rec yds	21.5	20	46% / 50%	8	under
2026 W3	Rec	3.5	3	42% / 46%	2	under
2026 W3	Rush yds	63.5	69	56% / 50%	61	under
2026 W2	Any TD	–	48% TD chance	48% / 47%	0	under
2026 W2	Rec yds	20.5	18	45% / 50%	2	under
2026 W2	Rec	3.5	3	39% / 49%	3	under
2026 W2	Rush yds	55.5	57	52% / 50%	80	over
2026 W1	Any TD	–	70% TD chance	70% / 56%	1	over
2026 W1	Rec yds	23.5	28	56% / 50%	22	under
2026 W1	Rec	3.5	4	52% / 47%	5	over
2026 W1	Rush yds	58.5	84	73% / 49%	56	under
2025 W18	Any TD	–	59% TD chance	59% / 57%	1	over
2025 W18	Long rec	10.5	12	55% / 52%	6	under
2025 W18	Rec yds	19.5	21	53% / 50%	18	under
2025 W18	Rec	3.5	3	38% / 44%	4	over
2025 W18	Rush att	15.5	15	47% / 50%	13	under
2025 W18	Rush yds	62.5	76	62% / 51%	72	over
2025 W17	Any TD	–	57% TD chance	57% / 61%	1	over
2025 W17	Long rec	11.5	13	55% / 51%	18	over
2025 W17	Rec yds	21.5	23	53% / 50%	40	over
2025 W17	Rec	3.5	3	41% / 49%	3	under
2025 W17	Rush att	13.5	14	53% / 47%	22	over
2025 W17	Rush yds	56.5	75	66% / 50%	101	over
2025 W16	Any TD	–	56% TD chance	56% / 51%	1	over
2025 W16	Long rec	11.5	12	51% / 50%	23	over
2025 W16	Rec yds	20.5	23	55% / 51%	43	over
2025 W16	Rec	3.5	3	48% / 52%	4	over
2025 W16	Rush att	12.5	14	62% / 49%	12	under
2025 W16	Rush yds	51.5	68	68% / 49%	66	over
2025 W15	Any TD	–	54% TD chance	54% / 44%	0	under
2025 W15	Long rec	12.5	11	45% / 48%	9	under
2025 W15	Rec yds	20.5	22	53% / 50%	37	over
2025 W15	Rec	3.5	3	46% / 52%	7	over
2025 W15	Rush att	12.5	14	60% / 46%	13	over
2025 W15	Rush yds	49.5	65	66% / 50%	53	over
2025 W14	Any TD	–	53% TD chance	53% / 45%	1	over
2025 W14	Long rec	10.5	11	55% / 51%	10	under
2025 W14	Rec yds	20.5	21	50% / 49%	12	under
2025 W14	Rec	3.5	3	42% / 42%	3	under
2025 W14	Rush att	11.5	14	68% / 52%	12	over
2025 W14	Rush yds	52.5	66	64% / 52%	23	under
2025 W13	Any TD	–	56% TD chance	56% / 48%	0	under
2025 W13	Long rec	10.5	13	62% / 51%	9	under
2025 W13	Rec yds	20.5	26	62% / 51%	35	over
2025 W13	Rec	3.5	4	56% / 46%	7	over
2025 W13	Rush att	13.5	16	66% / 51%	15	over
2025 W13	Rush yds	52.5	73	72% / 50%	78	over
2025 W12	Any TD	–	49% TD chance	49% / 53%	0	under
2025 W12	Long rec	12.5	11	43% / 48%	4	under
2025 W12	Rec yds	31.5	22	33% / 50%	23	under
2025 W12	Rec	5.5	3	21% / 41%	2	under
2025 W12	Rush att	14.5	14	47% / 50%	19	over
2025 W12	Rush yds	53.5	58	54% / 50%	107	over
2025 W11	Any TD	–	51% TD chance	51% / 45%	0	under
2025 W11	Long rec	11.5	11	49% / 51%	17	over
2025 W11	Rec yds	23.5	21	46% / 51%	28	over
2025 W11	Rec	3.5	3	49% / 53%	6	over
2025 W11	Rush att	15.5	15	46% / 52%	18	over
2025 W11	Rush yds	61.5	61	49% / 52%	99	over
2025 W9	Any TD	–	55% TD chance	55% / 53%	0	under
2025 W9	Long rec	9.5	9.1	48% / 49%	21	over
2025 W9	Rec yds	14.5	15	51% / 50%	75	over
2025 W9	Rec	2.5	2	48% / 49%	8	over
2025 W9	Rush att	11.5	15	70% / 54%	11	under
2025 W9	Rush yds	53.5	64	61% / 51%	37	under
2025 W8	Any TD	–	51% TD chance	51% / 53%	1	over
2025 W8	Long rec	9.5	9.2	48% / 50%	19	over
2025 W8	Rec yds	14.5	15	51% / 50%	32	over
2025 W8	Rec	2.5	2	49% / 51%	3	over
2025 W8	Rush att	14.5	16	59% / 47%	12	under
2025 W8	Rush yds	54.5	69	64% / 48%	73	over
2025 W7	Any TD	–	45% TD chance	45% / 49%	0	under
2025 W7	Long rec	9.5	8.9	46% / 51%	-2	under
2025 W7	Rec yds	16.5	16	49% / 50%	-8	under
2025 W7	Rec	2.5	3	57% / 59%	2	under
2025 W7	Rush att	12.5	15	65% / 54%	11	under
2025 W7	Rush yds	45.5	49	54% / 50%	108	over
2025 W6	Any TD	–	34% TD chance	34% / 38%	0	under
2025 W6	Long rec	11.5	8.3	32% / 50%	5	under
2025 W6	Rec yds	22.5	15	32% / 50%	7	under
2025 W6	Rec	3.5	3	42% / 53%	2	under
2025 W6	Rush att	12.5	14	60% / 53%	9	under
2025 W6	Rush yds	45.5	37	37% / 49%	42	under
2025 W5	Any TD	–	48% TD chance	48% / 47%	0	under
2025 W5	Long rec	10.5	8.8	41% / 50%	9	under
2025 W5	Rec yds	16.5	14	45% / 49%	21	over
2025 W5	Rec	2.5	2	49% / 54%	7	over
2025 W5	Rush att	14.5	15	54% / 50%	8	under
2025 W5	Rush yds	50.5	47	45% / 50%	27	under
2025 W4	Any TD	–	47% TD chance	47% / 42%	0	under
2025 W4	Long rec	9.5	8.6	45% / 51%	12	over
2025 W4	Rec yds	18.5	14	40% / 50%	31	over
2025 W4	Rec	3.5	3	31% / 41%	3	under
2025 W4	Rush att	16.5	16	45% / 47%	10	under
2025 W4	Rush yds	58.5	47	35% / 50%	40	under
2025 W3	Any TD	–	50% TD chance	50% / 52%	0	under
2025 W3	Long rec	9.5	8.1	43% / 51%	9	under
2025 W3	Rec yds	15.5	12	42% / 51%	17	over
2025 W3	Rec	2.5	2	41% / 52%	4	over
2025 W3	Rush att	18.5	20	55% / 48%	10	under
2025 W3	Rush yds	69.5	66	46% / 50%	3	under
2025 W2	Any TD	–	60% TD chance	60% / 61%	0	under
2025 W2	Long rec	11.5	9.7	43% / 48%	13	over
2025 W2	Rec yds	19.5	15	40% / 50%	18	under
2025 W2	Rec	3.5	2	23% / 43%	2	under
2025 W2	Rush att	17.5	19	56% / 53%	16	under
2025 W2	Rush yds	69.5	78	59% / 48%	47	under
2025 W1	Any TD	–	66% TD chance	66% / 60%	1	over
2025 W1	Long rec	11.5	10	46% / 48%	7	under
2025 W1	Rec yds	19.5	18	45% / 51%	8	under
2025 W1	Rec	2.5	2	50% / 58%	2	under
2025 W1	Rush att	16.5	20	66% / 48%	21	over
2025 W1	Rush yds	67.5	92	70% / 50%	43	under
2024 W17	Any TD	–	60% TD chance	60% / 64%	0	under
2024 W17	Rec yds	30.5	21	36% / 50%	24	under
2024 W17	Rec	3.5	3	41% / 60%	4	over
2024 W17	Rush yds	75.5	78	52% / 49%	67	under
2024 W16	Any TD	–	62% TD chance	62% / 67%	0	under
2024 W16	Rec yds	28.5	21	37% / 50%	18	under
2024 W16	Rec	4.5	3	23% / 41%	3	under
2024 W16	Rush yds	75.5	83	56% / 50%	91	over
2024 W15	Any TD	–	55% TD chance	55% / 63%	1	over
2024 W15	Rec yds	29.5	21	34% / 50%	16	under
2024 W15	Rec	4.5	3	21% / 44%	3	under
2024 W15	Rush yds	67.5	73	56% / 50%	97	over
2024 W14	Any TD	–	54% TD chance	54% / 67%	1	over
2024 W14	Rec yds	28.5	17	29% / 51%	65	over
2024 W14	Rec	3.5	2	27% / 55%	6	over
2024 W14	Rush yds	76.5	72	46% / 50%	58	under
2024 W13	Any TD	–	49% TD chance	49% / 56%	1	over
2024 W13	Rec yds	27.5	16	28% / 50%	30	over
2024 W13	Rec	4.5	2	17% / 43%	3	under
2024 W13	Rush yds	65.5	58	41% / 49%	70	over
2024 W11	Any TD	–	48% TD chance	48% / 57%	0	under
2024 W11	Rec yds	28.5	15	23% / 50%	57	over
2024 W11	Rec	4.5	2	16% / 44%	5	over
2024 W11	Rush yds	62.5	46	31% / 50%	86	over
2024 W10	Any TD	–	43% TD chance	43% / 55%	1	over
2024 W10	Rec yds	24.5	12	24% / 50%	52	over
2024 W10	Rec	3.5	2	21% / 53%	9	over
2024 W10	Rush yds	56.5	47	38% / 50%	42	under
2024 W9	Any TD	–	62% TD chance	62% / 59%	1	over
2024 W9	Rec yds	20.5	15	38% / 50%	37	over
2024 W9	Rec	3.5	2	25% / 44%	5	over
2024 W9	Rush yds	69.5	76	57% / 51%	120	over
2024 W8	Any TD	–	36% TD chance	36% / 45%	1	over
2024 W8	Rec yds	12.5	8.1	38% / 50%	2	under
2024 W8	Rec	2.5	1	23% / 40%	2	under
2024 W8	Rush yds	54.5	39	31% / 49%	32	under
2024 W7	Any TD	–	32% TD chance	32% / 42%	0	under
2024 W7	Rec yds	15.5	5.8	24% / 49%	9	under
2024 W7	Rec	2.5	1	17% / 47%	2	under
2024 W7	Rush yds	48.5	36	36% / 51%	44	under
2024 W6	Any TD	–	31% TD chance	31% / 43%	1	over
2024 W6	Rec yds	10.5	5.9	38% / 50%	11	over
2024 W6	Rec	2.5	1	17% / 38%	2	under
2024 W6	Rush yds	44.5	35	37% / 51%	53	over
2024 W5	Any TD	–	28% TD chance	28% / 40%	1	over
2024 W5	Rec yds	12.5	6.2	32% / 49%	8	under
2024 W5	Rec	1.5	1	39% / 60%	3	over
2024 W5	Rush yds	31.5	29	46% / 50%	46	over
2024 W4	Any TD	–	22% TD chance	22% / 32%	1	over
2024 W4	Rec yds	9.5	5.3	38% / 50%	12	over
2024 W4	Rec	1.5	1	35% / 48%	2	over
2024 W4	Rush yds	30.5	28	46% / 52%	80	over
2024 W3	Any TD	–	23% TD chance	23% / 31%	0	under
2024 W3	Rec yds	9.5	4.7	35% / 49%	7	under
2024 W3	Rec	1.5	1	32% / 52%	2	over
2024 W3	Rush yds	24.5	24	48% / 50%	62	over
2024 W2	Any TD	–	21% TD chance	21% / 23%	0	under
2024 W2	Rec yds	10.5	8.6	44% / 50%	0	under
2024 W2	Rec	1.5	2	51% / 58%	0	under
2024 W2	Rush yds	18.5	18	49% / 50%	31	over
2024 W1	Any TD	–	27% TD chance	27% / 31%	0	under
2024 W1	Rec yds	14.5	6.9	30% / 52%	12	under
2024 W1	Rec	2.5	1	18% / 43%	3	over
2024 W1	Rush yds	34.5	28	39% / 49%	11	under
2023 W18	Any TD	–	19% TD chance	19% / 27%	0	under
2023 W18	Rec yds	11.5	5.5	33% / 50%	10	under
2023 W18	Rec	1.5	1	36% / 60%	1	under
2023 W18	Rush yds	20.5	16	40% / 51%	43	over
2023 W17	Any TD	–	16% TD chance	16% / 18%	0	under
2023 W17	Rec yds	11.5	3.7	25% / 49%	23	over
2023 W17	Rush yds	18.5	15	40% / 51%	5	under
2023 W16	Any TD	–	13% TD chance	13% / 21%	0	under
2023 W16	Rec yds	15.5	3.8	20% / 51%	8	under
2023 W16	Rec	2.5	1	10% / 41%	2	under
2023 W16	Rush yds	27.5	14	22% / 50%	16	under
2023 W15	Any TD	–	14% TD chance	14% / 22%	0	under
2023 W15	Rec yds	6.5	0	26% / 54%	28	over
2023 W15	Rec	1.5	0	15% / 44%	3	over
2023 W15	Rush yds	20.5	12	30% / 52%	23	over
2023 W14	Any TD	–	13% TD chance	13% / 18%	1	over
2023 W13	Any TD	–	3% TD chance	3% / 5%	0	under
2023 W12	Any TD	–	4% TD chance	4% / 5%	–	void
2023 W8	Any TD	–	–	– / 7%	–	void
2023 W6	Any TD	–	3% TD chance	3% / 6%	0	under
2023 W5	Any TD	–	3% TD chance	3% / 5%	0	under
2023 W4	Any TD	–	4% TD chance	4% / 9%	0	under
2023 W3	Any TD	–	5% TD chance	5% / 12%	0	under
2023 W2	Any TD	–	–	– / 12%	0	under
2023 W1	Any TD	–	–	– / 15%	–	void

Our calls

2026 W4 Over 59.5 rush yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
2026 W3 Over 63.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
2026 W3 Over 63.5 rush yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
2026 W3 Under 63.5 rush yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
2026 W2 Under 20.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
2026 W2 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
2026 W1 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
2026 W1 Over 23.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
2026 W1 Over 58.5 rush yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
2025 W18 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W18 Over 15.5 rush attempts (Big favourite (6.5+), backtest) ❌
2025 W18 Over 62.5 rush yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
2025 W18 Over 62.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W18 Under 62.5 rush yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
2025 W17 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W17 Over 13.5 rush attempts (Big favourite (6.5+), backtest) ✅
2025 W17 Over 13.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W17 Over 56.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W16 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W16 Over 12.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W16 Over 51.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ✅
2025 W16 Over 51.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W16 Over 51.5 rush yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
2025 W15 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W15 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W15 Over 12.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W15 Over 49.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W14 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W14 Over 11.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W14 Over 52.5 rush yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
2025 W14 Over 52.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W13 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W13 Over 10.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W13 Over 20.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W13 Over 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W13 Under 13.5 rush attempts (Big underdog (6.5+), backtest) ❌
2025 W13 Over 13.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W13 Over 52.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W13 Under 52.5 rush yds (Short week, backtest) ❌
2025 W12 Under 12.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W12 Under 31.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W12 Under 5.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W12 Under 14.5 rush attempts (Big underdog (6.5+), backtest) ❌
2025 W12 Under 53.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ❌
2025 W11 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W11 Under 15.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W11 Over 61.5 rush yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
2025 W11 Over 61.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ✅
2025 W9 Over 11.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W9 Over 53.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W9 Over 53.5 rush yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
2025 W8 Over 14.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W8 Over 54.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ✅
2025 W8 Over 54.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W7 Under 9.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W7 Over 12.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W7 Under 45.5 rush yds (Short week, backtest) ❌
2025 W6 Under 11.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W6 Under 22.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W6 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅

For information and entertainment only; not betting advice. Lines are a pregame consensus of US sportsbooks via The Odds API and change quickly. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

How this works

Lines are the median across US books about an hour before kickoff. Projections are rolling-origin: made only from data before that week. Players who did not play are void.

Sources: The Odds API (US sportsbooks), nflverseFull methodology