WR · MIA · 16 lines since 2023
Chris Bell Player Props
Closing consensus lines for Chris Bell, what he did, and what our model projected before the game.
2026 Week 5
- Anytime TD priced at 19% — we make it 14%
- Line 20.5 yds longest rec — we project 17 (P(over) 41%)
- Line 33.5 rec yds — we project 28 (P(over) 42%)
- Line 2.5 receptions — we project 2 (P(over) 47%)
Over/under record by market
- Receiving yards over 2, under 2 (4 graded)
- Receptions over 1, under 3 (4 graded)
- Anytime TD over 0, under 4 (4 graded)
Our calls on him: model 4–2
Line vs actual vs our projection
| Week | Market | Line | We projected | P(over) us / market | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 W5 | Any TD | – | 14% TD chance | 14% / 19% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Long rec | 20.5 | 17 | 41% / 51% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rec yds | 33.5 | 28 | 42% / 50% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 47% / 50% | – | … |
| 2026 W4 | Any TD | – | 5% TD chance | 5% / 15% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W4 | Rec yds | 34.5 | 20 | 29% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W4 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 41% / 51% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Any TD | – | 7% TD chance | 7% / 15% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Rec yds | 19.5 | 12 | 36% / 50% | 67 | over |
| 2026 W3 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 44% / 51% | 4 | over |
| 2026 W2 | Any TD | – | 3% TD chance | 3% / 13% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Rec yds | 19.5 | 6.5 | 25% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 32% / 54% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Any TD | – | – | – / 15% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Rec yds | 17.5 | – | – / 51% | 25 | over |
| 2026 W1 | Rec | 1.5 | – | – / 56% | 1 | under |
Our calls
- 2026 W4 Under 34.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W4 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W3 Under 19.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W3 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W2 Under 19.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W2 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
For information and entertainment only; not betting advice. Lines are a pregame consensus of US sportsbooks via The Odds API and change quickly. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
How this works
Lines are the median across US books about an hour before kickoff. Projections are rolling-origin: made only from data before that week. Players who did not play are void.
Sources: The Odds API (US sportsbooks), nflverseFull methodology