TE · HOU · 178 lines since 2023
Dalton Schultz Player Props
Closing consensus lines for Dalton Schultz, what he did, and what our model projected before the game.
2026 Week 5
- Anytime TD priced at 25% — we make it 22%
- Line 13.5 yds longest rec — we project 16 (P(over) 59%)
- Line 33.5 rec yds — we project 31 (P(over) 46%)
- Line 4.5 receptions — we project 3 (P(over) 32%)
Over/under record by market
- Receiving yards over 26, under 26 (52 graded)
- Receptions over 27, under 25 (52 graded)
- Anytime TD over 10, under 43 (53 graded)
- Longest reception over 7, under 10 (17 graded)
Our calls on him: Pre-snap motion 4–4 · Missed tackles 2–2 · model 39–34 · Starters out on defense 7–3 · Freezing 1–1 · Dome team outdoors 7–8 · Short week 3–0 · Middle of the field 3–7
Line vs actual vs our projection
| Week | Market | Line | We projected | P(over) us / market | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 W5 | Any TD | – | 22% TD chance | 22% / 25% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Long rec | 13.5 | 16 | 59% / 50% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rec yds | 33.5 | 31 | 46% / 50% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rec | 4.5 | 3 | 32% / 42% | – | … |
| 2026 W4 | Any TD | – | 27% TD chance | 27% / 31% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W4 | Rec yds | 39.5 | 43 | 54% / 50% | 9 | under |
| 2026 W4 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 46% / 46% | 2 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Any TD | – | 22% TD chance | 22% / 31% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Rec yds | 49.5 | 44 | 44% / 50% | 30 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Rec | 5.5 | 5 | 39% / 44% | 3 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Any TD | – | 24% TD chance | 24% / 30% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Rec yds | 43.5 | 36 | 41% / 50% | 140 | over |
| 2026 W2 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 39% / 54% | 12 | over |
| 2026 W1 | Any TD | – | 28% TD chance | 28% / 24% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Rec yds | 34.5 | 35 | 51% / 50% | 35 | over |
| 2026 W1 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 57% / 50% | 4 | over |
| 2025 W18 | Any TD | – | 26% TD chance | 26% / 37% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W18 | Long rec | 17.5 | 17 | 47% / 50% | 32 | over |
| 2025 W18 | Rec yds | 44.5 | 34 | 38% / 50% | 73 | over |
| 2025 W18 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 40% / 53% | 4 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Any TD | – | 23% TD chance | 23% / 26% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Long rec | 15.5 | 15 | 46% / 50% | 11 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Rec yds | 40.5 | 31 | 36% / 49% | 19 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 40% / 49% | 3 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Any TD | – | 29% TD chance | 29% / 35% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W16 | Long rec | 16.5 | 18 | 54% / 50% | 10 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Rec yds | 40.5 | 37 | 46% / 50% | 35 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 38% / 48% | 5 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Any TD | – | 24% TD chance | 24% / 31% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Long rec | 15.5 | 18 | 59% / 51% | 16 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Rec yds | 37.5 | 37 | 49% / 51% | 76 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 51% / 58% | 8 | over |
| 2025 W14 | Any TD | – | 18% TD chance | 18% / 25% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Long rec | 15.5 | 15 | 48% / 51% | 14 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Rec yds | 39.5 | 30 | 37% / 50% | 22 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 38% / 48% | 3 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Any TD | – | 22% TD chance | 22% / 29% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Long rec | 16.5 | 17 | 50% / 49% | 14 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Rec yds | 41.5 | 35 | 43% / 48% | 55 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 40% / 46% | 7 | over |
| 2025 W12 | Any TD | – | 16% TD chance | 16% / 24% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Long rec | 15.5 | 14 | 45% / 50% | 8 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Rec yds | 37.5 | 29 | 38% / 50% | 8 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 34% / 43% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Any TD | – | 20% TD chance | 20% / 25% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Long rec | 15.5 | 16 | 53% / 49% | 13 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Rec yds | 34.5 | 33 | 47% / 50% | 51 | over |
| 2025 W11 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 50% / 57% | 6 | over |
| 2025 W10 | Any TD | – | 16% TD chance | 16% / 25% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W10 | Long rec | 15.5 | 14 | 46% / 49% | 20 | over |
| 2025 W10 | Rec yds | 36.5 | 28 | 38% / 51% | 53 | over |
| 2025 W10 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 46% / 59% | 7 | over |
| 2025 W9 | Any TD | – | 25% TD chance | 25% / 26% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Long rec | 14.5 | 15 | 52% / 49% | 47 | over |
| 2025 W9 | Rec yds | 29.5 | 28 | 48% / 49% | 77 | over |
| 2025 W9 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 44% / 43% | 6 | over |
| 2025 W8 | Any TD | – | 29% TD chance | 29% / 40% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W8 | Long rec | 17.5 | 18 | 53% / 49% | 17 | under |
| 2025 W8 | Rec yds | 49.5 | 43 | 42% / 51% | 24 | under |
| 2025 W8 | Rec | 5.5 | 5 | 38% / 46% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Any TD | – | 23% TD chance | 23% / 22% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Long rec | 15.5 | 15 | 48% / 50% | 22 | over |
| 2025 W7 | Rec yds | 37.5 | 31 | 41% / 50% | 98 | over |
| 2025 W7 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 37% / 46% | 9 | over |
| 2025 W5 | Any TD | – | 23% TD chance | 23% / 26% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Long rec | 13.5 | 16 | 58% / 52% | 21 | over |
| 2025 W5 | Rec yds | 28.5 | 30 | 52% / 50% | 60 | over |
| 2025 W5 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 47% / 44% | 5 | over |
| 2025 W4 | Any TD | – | 25% TD chance | 25% / 26% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Long rec | 14.5 | 16 | 55% / 51% | 9 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Rec yds | 30.5 | 28 | 47% / 50% | 30 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 40% / 42% | 5 | over |
| 2025 W3 | Any TD | – | 20% TD chance | 20% / 25% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Long rec | 14.5 | 16 | 56% / 49% | 12 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Rec yds | 29.5 | 31 | 52% / 50% | 39 | over |
| 2025 W3 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 46% / 42% | 5 | over |
| 2025 W2 | Any TD | – | 23% TD chance | 23% / 28% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Long rec | 15.5 | 16 | 52% / 50% | 16 | over |
| 2025 W2 | Rec yds | 34.5 | 28 | 42% / 50% | 29 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 37% / 53% | 3 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Any TD | – | 27% TD chance | 27% / 23% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Long rec | 14.5 | 17 | 58% / 50% | 11 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Rec yds | 30.5 | 34 | 55% / 50% | 28 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Rec | 2.5 | 4 | 71% / 57% | 3 | over |
| 2024 W18 | Any TD | – | 14% TD chance | 14% / 22% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W17 | Any TD | – | 21% TD chance | 21% / 24% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W17 | Rec yds | 38.5 | 29 | 38% / 49% | 21 | under |
| 2024 W17 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 43% / 58% | 2 | under |
| 2024 W16 | Any TD | – | 17% TD chance | 17% / 22% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W16 | Rec yds | 34.5 | 28 | 42% / 50% | 45 | over |
| 2024 W16 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 41% / 49% | 5 | over |
| 2024 W15 | Any TD | – | 20% TD chance | 20% / 32% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W15 | Rec yds | 33.5 | 30 | 45% / 53% | 13 | under |
| 2024 W15 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 37% / 49% | 2 | under |
| 2024 W13 | Any TD | – | 15% TD chance | 15% / 22% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W13 | Rec yds | 26.5 | 25 | 48% / 51% | 61 | over |
| 2024 W13 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 48% / 56% | 5 | over |
| 2024 W12 | Any TD | – | 16% TD chance | 16% / 24% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W12 | Rec yds | 27.5 | 28 | 51% / 51% | 20 | under |
| 2024 W12 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 54% / 57% | 2 | under |
| 2024 W11 | Any TD | – | 17% TD chance | 17% / 28% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W11 | Rec yds | 28.5 | 29 | 51% / 50% | 33 | over |
| 2024 W11 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 56% / 54% | 5 | over |
| 2024 W10 | Any TD | – | 21% TD chance | 21% / 28% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W10 | Rec yds | 39.5 | 35 | 45% / 49% | 66 | over |
| 2024 W10 | Rec | 4.5 | 3 | 34% / 45% | 3 | under |
| 2024 W9 | Any TD | – | 16% TD chance | 16% / 25% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W9 | Rec yds | 40.5 | 26 | 31% / 50% | 21 | under |
| 2024 W9 | Rec | 4.5 | 3 | 23% / 42% | 3 | under |
| 2024 W8 | Any TD | – | 20% TD chance | 20% / 27% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W8 | Rec yds | 31.5 | 28 | 45% / 50% | 52 | over |
| 2024 W8 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 35% / 47% | 4 | over |
| 2024 W7 | Any TD | – | 20% TD chance | 20% / 27% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W7 | Rec yds | 37.5 | 29 | 38% / 51% | 28 | under |
| 2024 W7 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 41% / 59% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W6 | Any TD | – | 22% TD chance | 22% / 26% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W6 | Rec yds | 33.5 | 24 | 36% / 51% | 27 | under |
| 2024 W6 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 35% / 49% | 4 | over |
| 2024 W5 | Any TD | – | 24% TD chance | 24% / 23% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W5 | Rec yds | 25.5 | 27 | 52% / 50% | 34 | over |
| 2024 W5 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 53% / 54% | 4 | over |
| 2024 W4 | Any TD | – | 23% TD chance | 23% / 28% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W4 | Rec yds | 31.5 | 30 | 47% / 51% | 34 | over |
| 2024 W4 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 39% / 46% | 3 | under |
| 2024 W3 | Any TD | – | 24% TD chance | 24% / 27% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W3 | Rec yds | 28.5 | 25 | 45% / 50% | 11 | under |
| 2024 W3 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 34% / 41% | 2 | under |
| 2024 W2 | Any TD | – | 22% TD chance | 22% / 26% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W2 | Rec yds | 26.5 | 27 | 50% / 50% | 21 | under |
| 2024 W2 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 32% / 42% | 2 | under |
| 2024 W1 | Any TD | – | 27% TD chance | 27% / 33% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W1 | Rec yds | 34.5 | 32 | 47% / 50% | 16 | under |
| 2024 W1 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 40% / 44% | 3 | under |
| 2023 W18 | Any TD | – | 30% TD chance | 30% / 34% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W18 | Rec yds | 47.5 | 40 | 42% / 51% | 42 | under |
| 2023 W18 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 37% / 52% | 5 | over |
| 2023 W17 | Any TD | – | 29% TD chance | 29% / 35% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W17 | Rec yds | 44.5 | 35 | 40% / 51% | 19 | under |
| 2023 W17 | Rec | 4.5 | 3 | 30% / 42% | 2 | under |
| 2023 W16 | Any TD | – | 20% TD chance | 20% / 23% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W16 | Rec yds | 31.5 | 29 | 46% / 50% | 61 | over |
| 2023 W16 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 42% / 44% | 8 | over |
| 2023 W15 | Any TD | – | 19% TD chance | 19% / 26% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W15 | Rec yds | 35.5 | 23 | 32% / 50% | 58 | over |
| 2023 W15 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 35% / 50% | 4 | over |
| 2023 W12 | Any TD | – | 26% TD chance | 26% / 35% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W12 | Rec yds | 41.5 | 33 | 41% / 51% | 2 | under |
| 2023 W12 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 42% / 51% | 1 | under |
| 2023 W11 | Any TD | – | 33% TD chance | 33% / 41% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W11 | Rec yds | 50.5 | 35 | 35% / 48% | 32 | under |
| 2023 W11 | Rec | 4.5 | 3 | 30% / 53% | 2 | under |
| 2023 W10 | Any TD | – | 38% TD chance | 38% / 29% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W10 | Rec yds | 50.5 | 43 | 42% / 50% | 71 | over |
| 2023 W10 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 50% / 49% | 4 | under |
| 2023 W9 | Any TD | – | 30% TD chance | 30% / 27% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W9 | Rec yds | 37.5 | 30 | 40% / 48% | 130 | over |
| 2023 W9 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 44% / 55% | 10 | over |
| 2023 W8 | Any TD | – | 26% TD chance | 26% / 28% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W8 | Rec yds | 38.5 | 36 | 48% / 49% | 5 | under |
| 2023 W8 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 51% / 50% | 2 | under |
| 2023 W6 | Any TD | – | 26% TD chance | 26% / 22% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W6 | Rec yds | 29.5 | 27 | 47% / 50% | 61 | over |
| 2023 W6 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 44% / 49% | 4 | over |
| 2023 W5 | Any TD | – | 24% TD chance | 24% / 23% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W5 | Rec yds | 26.5 | 19 | 35% / 50% | 65 | over |
| 2023 W5 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 45% / 57% | 7 | over |
| 2023 W4 | Any TD | – | 25% TD chance | 25% / 22% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W4 | Rec yds | 26.5 | 16 | 33% / 51% | 42 | over |
| 2023 W4 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 40% / 56% | 3 | over |
| 2023 W3 | Any TD | – | 26% TD chance | 26% / 22% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W3 | Rec yds | 32.5 | 17 | 25% / 51% | 9 | under |
| 2023 W3 | Rec | 3.5 | 2 | 27% / 44% | 1 | under |
| 2023 W2 | Any TD | – | 20% TD chance | 20% / 22% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W2 | Rec yds | 33.5 | 13 | 17% / 49% | 34 | over |
| 2023 W2 | Rec | 3.5 | 2 | 17% / 50% | 4 | over |
| 2023 W1 | Any TD | – | – | – / 20% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W1 | Rec yds | 31.5 | – | – / 50% | 4 | under |
| 2023 W1 | Rec | 3.5 | – | – / 44% | 2 | under |
Our calls
- 2026 W4 Over 39.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W3 Over 49.5 rec yds (Missed tackles, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W3 Under 49.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W3 Under 5.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W2 Over 43.5 rec yds (Missed tackles, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W2 Under 43.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W2 Under 4.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W1 Over 3.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2025 W18 Under 44.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W18 Under 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W17 Under 40.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W17 Under 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W16 Over 40.5 rec yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W16 Under 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W15 Over 15.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W15 Over 37.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W15 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W14 Under 39.5 rec yds (Freezing, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W14 Under 39.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W14 Under 39.5 rec yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W14 Under 39.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W14 Under 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W13 Under 41.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Under 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W12 Under 37.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W12 Under 37.5 rec yds (Short week, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W12 Under 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W11 Over 34.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W11 Under 34.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W11 Over 34.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W11 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W10 Under 36.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W10 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W9 Under 29.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W8 Under 49.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W8 Under 5.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W7 Under 37.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W7 Under 37.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W7 Under 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W5 Over 13.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W5 Over 28.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W5 Under 28.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W5 Over 28.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W3 Over 14.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W3 Under 29.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W2 Under 34.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W2 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W1 Over 14.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W1 Over 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W17 Over 38.5 rec yds (Middle of the field, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W17 Under 38.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W17 Under 38.5 rec yds (Short week, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W17 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W16 Under 34.5 rec yds (Freezing, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W16 Over 34.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W16 Under 34.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W16 Under 34.5 rec yds (Middle of the field, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W16 Under 34.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W16 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W15 Under 33.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
For information and entertainment only; not betting advice. Lines are a pregame consensus of US sportsbooks via The Odds API and change quickly. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
How this works
Lines are the median across US books about an hour before kickoff. Projections are rolling-origin: made only from data before that week. Players who did not play are void.
Sources: The Odds API (US sportsbooks), nflverseFull methodology