RB · CHI · 251 lines since 2023

D'Andre Swift Player Props

Closing consensus lines for D'Andre Swift, what he did, and what our model projected before the game.

2026 Week 5

Anytime TD priced at 63% — we make it 62%
Line 11.5 yds longest rec — we project 9.5 (P(over) 41%)
Line 18.5 rec yds — we project 14 (P(over) 40%)
Line 2.5 receptions — we project 2 (P(over) 40%)
Line 19.5 rush attempts — we project 23 (P(over) 65%)
Line 106.5 rush + rec yds — we project 124 (P(over) 62%)
Line 84.5 rush yds — we project 107 (P(over) 67%)

Over/under record by market

Rushing yards over 25, under 28 (53 graded)
Receiving yards over 26, under 27 (53 graded)
Receptions over 20, under 33 (53 graded)
Anytime TD over 21, under 32 (53 graded)
Rush attempts over 9, under 7 (16 graded)
Longest reception over 9, under 7 (16 graded)

Our calls on him: model 58–63 · Missed tackles 23–16 · Pre-snap motion 2–7 · Starters out on defense 5–5 · Red-zone defense 1–0 · Big favourite (6.5+) 1–0 · Big underdog (6.5+) 0–2 · Man coverage 1–3 · Short week 2–1

Line vs actual vs our projection

D'Andre Swift prop line history
Week	Market	Line	We projected	P(over) us / market	Actual	Result
2026 W5	Any TD	–	62% TD chance	62% / 63%	–	…
2026 W5	Long rec	11.5	9.5	41% / 48%	–	…
2026 W5	Rec yds	18.5	14	40% / 50%	–	…
2026 W5	Rec	2.5	2	40% / 51%	–	…
2026 W5	Rush att	19.5	23	65% / 48%	–	…
2026 W5	Rush+rec yds	106.5	124	62% / 50%	–	…
2026 W5	Rush yds	84.5	107	67% / 50%	–	…
2026 W4	Any TD	–	51% TD chance	51% / 53%	0	under
2026 W4	Rec yds	14.5	12	44% / 51%	16	over
2026 W4	Rec	2.5	2	30% / 39%	2	under
2026 W4	Rush yds	64.5	73	57% / 50%	58	under
2026 W3	Any TD	–	49% TD chance	49% / 51%	0	under
2026 W3	Rec yds	15.5	10	36% / 49%	4	under
2026 W3	Rec	2.5	2	31% / 42%	2	under
2026 W3	Rush yds	60.5	69	60% / 50%	84	over
2026 W2	Any TD	–	58% TD chance	58% / 57%	0	under
2026 W2	Rec yds	10.5	9.5	47% / 50%	54	over
2026 W2	Rec	1.5	1	48% / 52%	5	over
2026 W2	Rush yds	60.5	78	65% / 50%	45	under
2026 W1	Any TD	–	68% TD chance	68% / 56%	1	over
2026 W1	Rec yds	13.5	22	68% / 50%	10	under
2026 W1	Rec	2.5	3	58% / 39%	1	under
2026 W1	Rush yds	59.5	90	76% / 50%	124	over
2025 W18	Any TD	–	54% TD chance	54% / 53%	0	under
2025 W18	Long rec	8.5	9.9	55% / 49%	8	under
2025 W18	Rec yds	14.5	14	48% / 50%	8	under
2025 W18	Rec	1.5	2	58% / 56%	1	under
2025 W18	Rush att	13.5	14	53% / 46%	10	under
2025 W18	Rush yds	58.5	76	66% / 50%	40	under
2025 W17	Any TD	–	48% TD chance	48% / 41%	1	over
2025 W17	Long rec	8.5	10.0	56% / 50%	10	over
2025 W17	Rec yds	12.5	15	56% / 50%	25	over
2025 W17	Rec	1.5	2	65% / 59%	2	over
2025 W17	Rush att	12.5	13	54% / 49%	9	under
2025 W17	Rush yds	57.5	62	55% / 50%	54	under
2025 W16	Any TD	–	47% TD chance	47% / 39%	0	under
2025 W16	Long rec	9.5	8.8	48% / 51%	8	under
2025 W16	Rec yds	14.5	12	45% / 50%	12	under
2025 W16	Rec	2.5	2	33% / 41%	2	under
2025 W16	Rush att	13.5	13	45% / 47%	13	under
2025 W16	Rush yds	54.5	61	57% / 50%	58	over
2025 W15	Any TD	–	47% TD chance	47% / 41%	1	over
2025 W15	Long rec	9.5	9.1	48% / 51%	-2	under
2025 W15	Rec yds	13.5	13	49% / 50%	-2	under
2025 W15	Rec	2.5	2	34% / 37%	1	under
2025 W15	Rush att	12.5	15	63% / 51%	18	over
2025 W15	Rush yds	53.5	69	66% / 50%	98	over
2025 W14	Any TD	–	39% TD chance	39% / 34%	0	under
2025 W14	Long rec	8.5	8.6	51% / 49%	10	over
2025 W14	Rec yds	11.5	12	53% / 49%	19	over
2025 W14	Rec	1.5	2	61% / 59%	3	over
2025 W14	Rush att	11.5	13	60% / 46%	13	over
2025 W14	Rush yds	46.5	54	59% / 50%	63	over
2025 W13	Any TD	–	37% TD chance	37% / 30%	1	over
2025 W13	Long rec	8.5	8.0	47% / 49%	13	over
2025 W13	Rec yds	10.5	11	52% / 51%	13	over
2025 W13	Rec	1.5	2	59% / 57%	1	under
2025 W13	Rush att	10.5	12	64% / 50%	18	over
2025 W13	Rush yds	39.5	45	58% / 50%	125	over
2025 W12	Any TD	–	54% TD chance	54% / 47%	0	under
2025 W12	Long rec	8.5	11	60% / 50%	14	over
2025 W12	Rec yds	12.5	17	59% / 50%	14	over
2025 W12	Rec	1.5	2	68% / 60%	1	under
2025 W12	Rush att	14.5	14	45% / 48%	8	under
2025 W12	Rush yds	59.5	64	54% / 48%	15	under
2025 W11	Any TD	–	44% TD chance	44% / 42%	0	under
2025 W11	Long rec	9.5	9.7	51% / 52%	0	under
2025 W11	Rec yds	15.5	15	48% / 50%	0	under
2025 W11	Rec	2.5	2	41% / 48%	0	under
2025 W11	Rush att	13.5	13	43% / 49%	21	over
2025 W11	Rush yds	54.5	55	51% / 50%	90	over
2025 W10	Any TD	–	49% TD chance	49% / 47%	0	under
2025 W10	Long rec	9.5	9.0	48% / 47%	10	over
2025 W10	Rec yds	10.5	13	54% / 54%	18	over
2025 W10	Rec	2.5	2	30% / 39%	5	over
2025 W10	Rush att	12.5	12	45% / 51%	13	over
2025 W10	Rush yds	52.5	56	54% / 49%	80	over
2025 W8	Any TD	–	46% TD chance	46% / 42%	1	over
2025 W8	Long rec	9.5	10.0	52% / 51%	25	over
2025 W8	Rec yds	15.5	15	49% / 50%	26	over
2025 W8	Rec	2.5	2	42% / 45%	2	under
2025 W8	Rush att	13.5	14	51% / 48%	11	under
2025 W8	Rush yds	50.5	58	60% / 50%	45	under
2025 W7	Any TD	–	47% TD chance	47% / 49%	1	over
2025 W7	Long rec	11.5	9.7	43% / 50%	14	over
2025 W7	Rec yds	16.5	15	45% / 50%	14	under
2025 W7	Rec	2.5	2	37% / 52%	1	under
2025 W7	Rush att	13.5	13	49% / 53%	19	over
2025 W7	Rush yds	54.5	56	52% / 50%	124	over
2025 W6	Any TD	–	47% TD chance	47% / 42%	1	over
2025 W6	Long rec	10.5	10	49% / 51%	55	over
2025 W6	Rec yds	18.5	17	48% / 50%	67	over
2025 W6	Rec	2.5	3	51% / 58%	2	under
2025 W6	Rush att	13.5	14	55% / 52%	14	over
2025 W6	Rush yds	48.5	50	53% / 51%	108	over
2025 W4	Any TD	–	51% TD chance	51% / 45%	1	over
2025 W4	Long rec	10.5	9.5	46% / 50%	7	under
2025 W4	Rec yds	17.5	15	44% / 51%	22	over
2025 W4	Rec	2.5	2	43% / 57%	4	over
2025 W4	Rush att	13.5	14	56% / 46%	14	over
2025 W4	Rush yds	47.5	55	59% / 50%	38	under
2025 W3	Any TD	–	55% TD chance	55% / 48%	0	under
2025 W3	Long rec	9.5	9.3	50% / 48%	41	over
2025 W3	Rec yds	15.5	14	47% / 50%	45	over
2025 W3	Rec	2.5	2	40% / 51%	3	over
2025 W3	Rush att	13.5	15	58% / 49%	13	under
2025 W3	Rush yds	49.5	60	60% / 49%	33	under
2025 W2	Any TD	–	46% TD chance	46% / 38%	1	over
2025 W2	Long rec	9.5	8.9	47% / 51%	3	under
2025 W2	Rec yds	16.5	14	43% / 50%	6	under
2025 W2	Rec	2.5	2	43% / 51%	3	over
2025 W2	Rush att	13.5	15	57% / 51%	12	under
2025 W2	Rush yds	49.5	50	51% / 50%	63	over
2025 W1	Any TD	–	53% TD chance	53% / 43%	0	under
2025 W1	Long rec	9.5	10	55% / 50%	8	under
2025 W1	Rec yds	16.5	18	53% / 51%	12	under
2025 W1	Rec	2.5	3	53% / 47%	3	over
2025 W1	Rush att	14.5	17	66% / 50%	17	over
2025 W1	Rush yds	54.5	63	60% / 50%	53	under
2024 W18	Any TD	–	30% TD chance	30% / 33%	1	over
2024 W18	Rec yds	13.5	11	44% / 51%	0	under
2024 W18	Rec	2.5	2	40% / 44%	0	under
2024 W18	Rush yds	47.5	40	38% / 50%	65	over
2024 W17	Any TD	–	39% TD chance	39% / 40%	0	under
2024 W17	Rec yds	13.5	12	45% / 50%	28	over
2024 W17	Rec	2.5	2	35% / 38%	4	over
2024 W17	Rush yds	54.5	51	45% / 49%	53	under
2024 W16	Any TD	–	48% TD chance	48% / 43%	0	under
2024 W16	Rec yds	15.5	13	45% / 51%	33	over
2024 W16	Rec	2.5	2	40% / 40%	3	over
2024 W16	Rush yds	58.5	58	49% / 50%	20	under
2024 W15	Any TD	–	46% TD chance	46% / 45%	0	under
2024 W15	Rec yds	13.5	11	44% / 53%	10	under
2024 W15	Rec	2.5	2	37% / 44%	1	under
2024 W15	Rush yds	50.5	49	48% / 49%	79	over
2024 W14	Any TD	–	53% TD chance	53% / 50%	0	under
2024 W14	Rec yds	13.5	15	53% / 50%	2	under
2024 W14	Rec	2.5	2	44% / 43%	1	under
2024 W14	Rush yds	55.5	66	62% / 50%	38	under
2024 W13	Any TD	–	44% TD chance	44% / 38%	0	under
2024 W13	Rec yds	14.5	11	42% / 48%	35	over
2024 W13	Rec	2.5	2	37% / 41%	2	under
2024 W13	Rush yds	47.5	50	54% / 50%	39	under
2024 W12	Any TD	–	46% TD chance	46% / 36%	0	under
2024 W12	Rec yds	14.5	10	38% / 49%	35	over
2024 W12	Rec	2.5	2	35% / 44%	3	over
2024 W12	Rush yds	48.5	52	54% / 49%	30	under
2024 W11	Any TD	–	41% TD chance	41% / 43%	1	over
2024 W11	Rec yds	16.5	11	35% / 51%	13	under
2024 W11	Rec	2.5	2	38% / 53%	2	under
2024 W11	Rush yds	66.5	57	39% / 50%	71	over
2024 W10	Any TD	–	49% TD chance	49% / 50%	0	under
2024 W10	Rec yds	16.5	14	44% / 50%	6	under
2024 W10	Rec	2.5	2	42% / 50%	1	under
2024 W10	Rush yds	74.5	77	52% / 50%	59	under
2024 W9	Any TD	–	48% TD chance	48% / 50%	0	under
2024 W9	Rec yds	18.5	12	35% / 50%	31	over
2024 W9	Rec	2.5	2	35% / 54%	6	over
2024 W9	Rush yds	68.5	73	55% / 51%	51	under
2024 W8	Any TD	–	49% TD chance	49% / 50%	1	over
2024 W8	Rec yds	19.5	14	37% / 50%	0	under
2024 W8	Rec	2.5	2	40% / 59%	0	under
2024 W8	Rush yds	59.5	65	56% / 50%	129	over
2024 W6	Any TD	–	43% TD chance	43% / 47%	1	over
2024 W6	Rec yds	18.5	14	40% / 52%	28	over
2024 W6	Rec	2.5	2	41% / 56%	4	over
2024 W6	Rush yds	50.5	49	48% / 49%	91	over
2024 W5	Any TD	–	44% TD chance	44% / 45%	1	over
2024 W5	Rec yds	15.5	13	46% / 50%	47	over
2024 W5	Rec	2.5	2	40% / 51%	2	under
2024 W5	Rush yds	54.5	52	47% / 51%	73	over
2024 W4	Any TD	–	39% TD chance	39% / 33%	1	over
2024 W4	Rec yds	8.5	8.9	51% / 50%	72	over
2024 W4	Rec	1.5	2	51% / 50%	7	over
2024 W4	Rush yds	35.5	43	61% / 50%	93	over
2024 W3	Any TD	–	48% TD chance	48% / 47%	0	under
2024 W3	Rec yds	15.5	11	37% / 51%	22	over
2024 W3	Rec	2.5	2	34% / 51%	2	under
2024 W3	Rush yds	51.5	56	54% / 50%	20	under
2024 W2	Any TD	–	42% TD chance	42% / 37%	0	under
2024 W2	Rec yds	13.5	5.6	27% / 50%	24	over
2024 W2	Rec	2.5	1	18% / 47%	4	over
2024 W2	Rush yds	45.5	43	46% / 50%	18	under
2024 W1	Any TD	–	50% TD chance	50% / 43%	0	under
2024 W1	Rec yds	13.5	11	42% / 51%	0	under
2024 W1	Rec	2.5	2	34% / 41%	0	under
2024 W1	Rush yds	44.5	54	61% / 51%	30	under
2023 W17	Any TD	–	59% TD chance	59% / 50%	0	under
2023 W17	Rec yds	12.5	11	46% / 50%	5	under
2023 W17	Rec	1.5	2	54% / 57%	1	under
2023 W17	Rush yds	68.5	77	57% / 52%	61	under
2023 W16	Any TD	–	54% TD chance	54% / 43%	1	over
2023 W16	Rec yds	13.5	13	49% / 49%	0	under
2023 W16	Rec	2.5	2	38% / 40%	0	under
2023 W16	Rush yds	64.5	67	53% / 51%	92	over
2023 W15	Any TD	–	48% TD chance	48% / 42%	0	under
2023 W15	Rec yds	13.5	13	49% / 51%	1	under
2023 W15	Rec	2.5	2	38% / 42%	2	under
2023 W15	Rush yds	58.5	59	50% / 52%	74	over
2023 W14	Any TD	–	51% TD chance	51% / 40%	0	under
2023 W14	Rec yds	15.5	16	51% / 50%	0	under
2023 W14	Rec	2.5	2	49% / 47%	0	under
2023 W14	Rush yds	53.5	55	52% / 50%	39	under
2023 W13	Any TD	–	52% TD chance	52% / 38%	0	under
2023 W13	Rec yds	16.5	15	48% / 49%	7	under
2023 W13	Rec	2.5	3	54% / 51%	2	under
2023 W13	Rush yds	53.5	51	47% / 51%	13	under
2023 W12	Any TD	–	57% TD chance	57% / 47%	0	under
2023 W12	Rec yds	17.5	19	54% / 51%	4	under
2023 W12	Rec	2.5	3	60% / 56%	1	under
2023 W12	Rush yds	59.5	58	49% / 50%	80	over
2023 W11	Any TD	–	49% TD chance	49% / 42%	1	over
2023 W11	Rec yds	17.5	18	51% / 50%	31	over
2023 W11	Rec	2.5	3	59% / 57%	3	over
2023 W11	Rush yds	59.5	47	35% / 51%	76	over
2023 W9	Any TD	–	52% TD chance	52% / 40%	0	under
2023 W9	Rec yds	16.5	17	50% / 50%	31	over
2023 W9	Rec	2.5	3	55% / 57%	2	under
2023 W9	Rush yds	56.5	59	53% / 50%	43	under
2023 W8	Any TD	–	51% TD chance	51% / 40%	1	over
2023 W8	Rec yds	17.5	18	51% / 50%	7	under
2023 W8	Rec	3.5	3	40% / 40%	2	under
2023 W8	Rush yds	63.5	65	52% / 48%	57	under
2023 W7	Any TD	–	53% TD chance	53% / 46%	0	under
2023 W7	Rec yds	21.5	21	49% / 50%	13	under
2023 W7	Rec	3.5	3	46% / 45%	3	under
2023 W7	Rush yds	63.5	61	48% / 50%	62	under
2023 W6	Any TD	–	52% TD chance	52% / 47%	1	over
2023 W6	Rec yds	15.5	15	48% / 50%	40	over
2023 W6	Rec	2.5	2	47% / 47%	8	over
2023 W6	Rush yds	65.5	81	64% / 51%	18	under
2023 W5	Any TD	–	47% TD chance	47% / 41%	0	under
2023 W5	Rec yds	13.5	12	46% / 51%	38	over
2023 W5	Rec	2.5	2	40% / 44%	6	over
2023 W5	Rush yds	65.5	71	55% / 50%	70	over
2023 W4	Any TD	–	43% TD chance	43% / 44%	1	over
2023 W4	Rec yds	7.5	10	58% / 50%	23	over
2023 W4	Rec	1.5	2	55% / 51%	4	over
2023 W4	Rush yds	66.5	68	51% / 50%	56	under
2023 W3	Any TD	–	41% TD chance	41% / 38%	0	under
2023 W3	Rec yds	11.5	13	53% / 50%	8	under
2023 W3	Rec	1.5	2	65% / 56%	1	under
2023 W3	Rush yds	39.5	59	71% / 50%	130	over
2023 W2	Any TD	–	37% TD chance	37% / 39%	1	over
2023 W2	Rec yds	16.5	12	37% / 50%	6	under
2023 W2	Rec	2.5	2	32% / 44%	3	over
2023 W2	Rush yds	35.5	47	65% / 51%	175	over
2023 W1	Any TD	–	–	– / 31%	0	under
2023 W1	Rec yds	17.5	–	– / 51%	0	under
2023 W1	Rec	2.5	–	– / 46%	1	under
2023 W1	Rush yds	43.5	–	– / 49%	3	under

Our calls

2026 W4 Under 14.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
2026 W4 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
2026 W4 Over 64.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
2026 W4 Over 64.5 rush yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
2026 W3 Under 15.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
2026 W3 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
2026 W3 Over 60.5 rush yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
2026 W3 Under 60.5 rush yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
2026 W2 Under 60.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
2026 W2 Over 60.5 rush yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
2026 W1 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
2026 W1 Over 13.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
2026 W1 Over 2.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
2026 W1 Over 59.5 rush yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
2025 W18 Over 8.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W18 Over 13.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W18 Over 58.5 rush yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
2025 W18 Under 58.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ✅
2025 W18 Over 58.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W18 Over 58.5 rush yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
2025 W17 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W17 Anytime TD: yes (Red-zone defense, backtest) ✅
2025 W17 Over 8.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W17 Over 12.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W17 Over 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W17 Over 12.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W17 Under 57.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ✅
2025 W16 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W16 Under 14.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W16 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W16 Under 54.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ❌
2025 W16 Over 54.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W16 Under 54.5 rush yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
2025 W15 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W15 Over 12.5 rush attempts (Big favourite (6.5+), backtest) ✅
2025 W15 Over 12.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W15 Under 53.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ❌
2025 W15 Over 53.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W15 Under 53.5 rush yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
2025 W14 Under 11.5 rush attempts (Big underdog (6.5+), backtest) ❌
2025 W14 Over 11.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W14 Over 46.5 rush yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
2025 W14 Under 46.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ❌
2025 W14 Over 46.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W14 Under 46.5 rush yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
2025 W13 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W13 Under 10.5 rush attempts (Big underdog (6.5+), backtest) ❌
2025 W13 Over 10.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W13 Over 39.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W12 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W12 Over 8.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W12 Over 12.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W12 Over 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W12 Over 59.5 rush yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
2025 W12 Over 59.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ❌
2025 W12 Over 59.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W11 Over 15.5 rec yds (Man coverage, backtest) ❌
2025 W11 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W11 Under 13.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W11 Over 54.5 rush yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅

For information and entertainment only; not betting advice. Lines are a pregame consensus of US sportsbooks via The Odds API and change quickly. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

How this works

Lines are the median across US books about an hour before kickoff. Projections are rolling-origin: made only from data before that week. Players who did not play are void.

Sources: The Odds API (US sportsbooks), nflverseFull methodology