Edgehalla

TE · TEN · 105 lines since 2023

Daniel Bellinger Player Props

Closing consensus lines for Daniel Bellinger, what he did, and what our model projected before the game.

2026 Week 5

  • Anytime TD priced at 8% — we make it 4%

Over/under record by market

  • Receiving yards over 11, under 12 (23 graded)
  • Receptions over 9, under 10 (19 graded)
  • Anytime TD over 2, under 52 (54 graded)
  • Longest reception over 4, under 4 (8 graded)

Our calls on him: Starters out on defense 2–3 · model 22–19 · Freezing 1–1 · Wind 15+ mph 2–0 · Short week 1–0 · Man coverage 0–1

Line vs actual vs our projection

Daniel Bellinger prop line history
WeekMarketLineWe projectedP(over) us / marketActualResult
2026 W5Any TD–4% TD chance4% / 8%–…
2026 W4Any TD–3% TD chance3% / 6%0under
2026 W3Any TD–5% TD chance5% / 7%0under
2026 W2Any TD–5% TD chance5% / 6%0under
2026 W1Any TD–9% TD chance9% / 10%0under
2025 W18Any TD–22% TD chance22% / 29%1over
2025 W18Long rec15.51548% / 52%29over
2025 W18Rec yds33.52438% / 49%38over
2025 W18Rec3.5230% / 46%2under
2025 W17Any TD–22% TD chance22% / 22%0under
2025 W17Long rec13.51245% / 49%7under
2025 W17Rec yds20.51744% / 51%11under
2025 W17Rec2.5237% / 48%2under
2025 W16Any TD–9% TD chance9% / 12%0under
2025 W15Any TD–12% TD chance12% / 16%0under
2025 W15Long rec6.54.344% / 49%13over
2025 W15Rec yds6.54.746% / 52%35over
2025 W15Rec0.5160% / 62%3over
2025 W13Any TD–9% TD chance9% / 13%0under
2025 W12Any TD–10% TD chance10% / 14%0under
2025 W12Long rec9.55.536% / 48%0under
2025 W12Rec yds11.56.437% / 49%0under
2025 W11Any TD–11% TD chance11% / 18%0under
2025 W11Long rec11.57.035% / 50%0under
2025 W11Rec yds15.58.936% / 50%0under
2025 W11Rec1.5146% / 55%0under
2025 W10Any TD–9% TD chance9% / 14%0under
2025 W10Long rec7.56.045% / 51%8over
2025 W10Rec yds8.57.247% / 50%8under
2025 W10Rec1.5136% / 36%1under
2025 W8Any TD–8% TD chance8% / 13%0under
2025 W8Long rec10.56.033% / 50%21over
2025 W8Rec yds15.57.032% / 47%21over
2025 W7Any TD–6% TD chance6% / 7%1over
2025 W6Any TD–6% TD chance6% / 11%0under
2025 W6Long rec10.54.126% / 48%0under
2025 W6Rec yds15.54.823% / 49%0under
2025 W6Rec1.5133% / 50%0under
2025 W5Any TD–5% TD chance5% / 7%0under
2025 W4Any TD–6% TD chance6% / 10%0under
2025 W3Any TD–6% TD chance6% / 5%0under
2025 W2Any TD–8% TD chance8% / 6%0under
2025 W1Any TD–8% TD chance8% / 7%0under
2024 W18Any TD–3% TD chance3% / 12%0under
2024 W18Rec yds14.52.320% / 48%9under
2024 W18Rec1.5124% / 52%2over
2024 W17Any TD–3% TD chance3% / 13%0under
2024 W17Rec yds20.55.015% / 49%0under
2024 W17Rec2.5112% / 43%0under
2024 W16Any TD–3% TD chance3% / 15%0under
2024 W16Rec yds19.54.215% / 50%5under
2024 W16Rec2.5111% / 43%1under
2024 W15Any TD–2% TD chance2% / 10%0under
2024 W15Rec yds17.51.613% / 51%35over
2024 W15Rec1.5122% / 60%3over
2024 W14Any TD–2% TD chance2% / 9%0under
2024 W14Rec yds10.509% / 53%45over
2024 W13Any TD–2% TD chance2% / 5%0under
2024 W12Any TD–2% TD chance2% / 4%0under
2024 W10Any TD–3% TD chance3% / 8%0under
2024 W9Any TD–3% TD chance3% / 5%0under
2024 W8Any TD–2% TD chance2% / 4%0under
2024 W7Any TD–4% TD chance4% / 6%0under
2024 W6Any TD–4% TD chance4% / 7%0under
2024 W5Any TD–4% TD chance4% / 7%0under
2024 W4Any TD–4% TD chance4% / 6%0under
2024 W3Any TD–5% TD chance5% / 7%0under
2024 W2Any TD–6% TD chance6% / 11%0under
2024 W1Any TD–16% TD chance16% / 14%0under
2024 W1Rec yds10.51357% / 49%3under
2024 W1Rec1.5256% / 47%1under
2023 W18Any TD–6% TD chance6% / 13%0under
2023 W17Any TD–12% TD chance12% / 11%0under
2023 W17Rec yds10.51254% / 50%39over
2023 W17Rec1.5253% / 42%4over
2023 W16Any TD–5% TD chance5% / 8%0under
2023 W16Rec yds8.56.744% / 46%43over
2023 W16Rec1.5144% / 36%4over
2023 W15Any TD–5% TD chance5% / 11%0under
2023 W14Any TD–3% TD chance3% / 13%0under
2023 W14Rec yds15.56.227% / 50%15under
2023 W14Rec2.5116% / 38%2under
2023 W12Any TD–4% TD chance4% / 15%0under
2023 W12Rec yds19.58.624% / 50%8under
2023 W12Rec2.5124% / 45%1under
2023 W11Any TD–2% TD chance2% / 15%0under
2023 W11Rec yds15.55.023% / 52%38over
2023 W11Rec1.5132% / 59%3over
2023 W10Any TD–1% TD chance1% / 10%0under
2023 W10Rec yds14.51.512% / 50%34over
2023 W10Rec1.5122% / 57%2over
2023 W9Any TD–9% TD chance9% / 13%0under
2023 W9Rec yds16.51138% / 50%43over
2023 W9Rec2.5228% / 40%3over
2023 W8Any TD–4% TD chance4% / 8%0under
2023 W7Any TD–1% TD chance1% / 9%0under
2023 W6Any TD–3% TD chance3% / 7%0under
2023 W5Any TD–7% TD chance7% / 9%0under
2023 W4Any TD–6% TD chance6% / 11%0under
2023 W4Rec yds4.5030% / 49%6over
2023 W3Any TD–6% TD chance6% / 9%0under
2023 W2Any TD–16% TD chance16% / 9%0under
2023 W1Any TD––– / 13%0under
2023 W1Rec yds6.5–– / 50%1under
2023 W1Rec0.5–– / 65%1over

Our calls

  • 2025 W18 Over 33.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
  • 2025 W18 Under 33.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W18 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2025 W17 Under 20.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2025 W17 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2025 W15 Under 6.5 rec yds (Freezing, backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W15 Under 6.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W12 Under 9.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2025 W12 Under 11.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2025 W11 Under 11.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2025 W11 Under 15.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2025 W11 Under 15.5 rec yds (Wind 15+ mph, backtest) ✅
  • 2025 W11 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2025 W10 Under 7.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W10 Over 8.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W8 Under 10.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W8 Under 15.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W6 Under 10.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2025 W6 Under 15.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2025 W6 Under 15.5 rec yds (Short week, backtest) ✅
  • 2025 W6 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2024 W18 Under 14.5 rec yds (Freezing, backtest) ✅
  • 2024 W18 Over 14.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
  • 2024 W18 Under 14.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2024 W18 Under 14.5 rec yds (Wind 15+ mph, backtest) ✅
  • 2024 W18 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2024 W17 Under 20.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2024 W17 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2024 W16 Under 19.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2024 W16 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2024 W15 Under 17.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2024 W15 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2024 W14 Under 10.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2024 W1 Over 10.5 rec yds (Man coverage, backtest) ❌
  • 2024 W1 Over 10.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2024 W1 Over 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2023 W17 Over 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2023 W16 Over 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2023 W14 Over 15.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
  • 2023 W14 Under 15.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2023 W14 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2023 W12 Under 19.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2023 W12 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2023 W11 Under 15.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2023 W11 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2023 W10 Under 14.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2023 W10 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2023 W9 Over 16.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
  • 2023 W9 Under 16.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2023 W9 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2023 W4 Under 4.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2023 W2 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌

For information and entertainment only; not betting advice. Lines are a pregame consensus of US sportsbooks via The Odds API and change quickly. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

How this works

Lines are the median across US books about an hour before kickoff. Projections are rolling-origin: made only from data before that week. Players who did not play are void.

Sources: The Odds API (US sportsbooks), nflverseFull methodology