RB · HOU · 58 lines since 2023
Dare Ogunbowale Player Props
Closing consensus lines for Dare Ogunbowale, what he did, and what our model projected before the game.
2026 Week 5
- Anytime TD priced at 4% — we make it 8%
Over/under record by market
- Rushing yards over 0, under 1 (1 graded)
- Receiving yards over 2, under 1 (3 graded)
- Receptions over 2, under 1 (3 graded)
- Anytime TD over 2, under 38 (40 graded)
- Rush attempts over 1, under 0 (1 graded)
- Longest reception over 0, under 1 (1 graded)
Our calls on him: model 4–16 · Big favourite (6.5+) 1–0
Line vs actual vs our projection
| Week | Market | Line | We projected | P(over) us / market | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 W5 | Any TD | – | 8% TD chance | 8% / 4% | – | … |
| 2026 W4 | Any TD | – | 11% TD chance | 11% / 6% | – | void |
| 2025 W17 | Any TD | – | 13% TD chance | 13% / 5% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Any TD | – | 19% TD chance | 19% / 14% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Any TD | – | 8% TD chance | 8% / 27% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Rush att | 3.5 | 1 | 1% / 47% | 5 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Rush yds | 10.5 | 0 | 14% / 53% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Any TD | – | 3% TD chance | 3% / 3% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Any TD | – | 5% TD chance | 5% / 4% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Any TD | – | 5% TD chance | 5% / 5% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Any TD | – | 5% TD chance | 5% / 6% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Any TD | – | 6% TD chance | 6% / 6% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Any TD | – | 9% TD chance | 9% / 5% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W8 | Any TD | – | 10% TD chance | 10% / 6% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Any TD | – | 8% TD chance | 8% / 4% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Any TD | – | 10% TD chance | 10% / 5% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Any TD | – | 11% TD chance | 11% / 8% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Any TD | – | 12% TD chance | 12% / 9% | – | void |
| 2025 W2 | Any TD | – | 12% TD chance | 12% / 15% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Long rec | 6.5 | 3.4 | 37% / 51% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Rec yds | 7.5 | 3.7 | 38% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 27% / 44% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Any TD | – | 15% TD chance | 15% / 10% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W18 | Any TD | – | 11% TD chance | 11% / 17% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W17 | Any TD | – | 15% TD chance | 15% / 9% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W16 | Any TD | – | 14% TD chance | 14% / 9% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W15 | Any TD | – | 20% TD chance | 20% / 8% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W13 | Any TD | – | 16% TD chance | 16% / 10% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W12 | Any TD | – | 19% TD chance | 19% / 9% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W11 | Any TD | – | 20% TD chance | 20% / 13% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W10 | Any TD | – | 24% TD chance | 24% / 17% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W9 | Any TD | – | 20% TD chance | 20% / 14% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W8 | Any TD | – | 20% TD chance | 20% / 14% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W7 | Any TD | – | 17% TD chance | 17% / 13% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W6 | Any TD | – | 30% TD chance | 30% / 8% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W5 | Any TD | – | 18% TD chance | 18% / 18% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W5 | Rec yds | 10.5 | 7.1 | 41% / 51% | 57 | over |
| 2024 W5 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 40% / 57% | 6 | over |
| 2024 W4 | Any TD | – | 10% TD chance | 10% / 21% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W3 | Any TD | – | 18% TD chance | 18% / 22% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W3 | Rec yds | 8.5 | 3.6 | 35% / 49% | 28 | over |
| 2024 W3 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 28% / 44% | 2 | over |
| 2024 W2 | Any TD | – | 6% TD chance | 6% / 7% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W1 | Any TD | – | 7% TD chance | 7% / 7% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W18 | Any TD | – | 7% TD chance | 7% / 10% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W17 | Any TD | – | 7% TD chance | 7% / 14% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W16 | Any TD | – | 4% TD chance | 4% / 11% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W15 | Any TD | – | 5% TD chance | 5% / 8% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W14 | Any TD | – | 5% TD chance | 5% / 5% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W13 | Any TD | – | 4% TD chance | 4% / 5% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W12 | Any TD | – | 5% TD chance | 5% / 6% | – | void |
| 2023 W11 | Any TD | – | 8% TD chance | 8% / 6% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W10 | Any TD | – | 10% TD chance | 10% / 8% | – | void |
| 2023 W9 | Any TD | – | 10% TD chance | 10% / 10% | – | void |
| 2023 W8 | Any TD | – | 4% TD chance | 4% / 5% | – | void |
| 2023 W3 | Any TD | – | 6% TD chance | 6% / 6% | – | void |
| 2023 W2 | Any TD | – | – | – / 11% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W1 | Any TD | – | – | – / 5% | – | void |
Our calls
- 2025 W17 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W16 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W15 Over 3.5 rush attempts (Big favourite (6.5+), backtest) ✅
- 2025 W15 Under 3.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W15 Under 10.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W2 Under 6.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W2 Under 7.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W2 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W17 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W15 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W13 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W12 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W11 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W10 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W9 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W8 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W6 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W5 Under 10.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W5 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W3 Under 8.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W3 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
For information and entertainment only; not betting advice. Lines are a pregame consensus of US sportsbooks via The Odds API and change quickly. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
How this works
Lines are the median across US books about an hour before kickoff. Projections are rolling-origin: made only from data before that week. Players who did not play are void.
Sources: The Odds API (US sportsbooks), nflverseFull methodology