WR · NO · 85 lines since 2023
Devaughn Vele Player Props
Closing consensus lines for Devaughn Vele, what he did, and what our model projected before the game.
2026 Week 5
- Anytime TD priced at 23% — we make it 26%
- Line 17.5 yds longest rec — we project 19 (P(over) 54%)
- Line 40.5 rec yds — we project 38 (P(over) 47%)
- Line 3.5 receptions — we project 4 (P(over) 53%)
Over/under record by market
- Receiving yards over 12, under 10 (22 graded)
- Receptions over 11, under 10 (21 graded)
- Anytime TD over 7, under 23 (30 graded)
- Longest reception over 2, under 5 (7 graded)
Our calls on him: model 17–17 · Pre-snap motion 1–0 · Dome team outdoors 2–3 · Starters out on defense 4–1 · Wind 15+ mph 2–0 · Freezing 0–1 · Middle of the field 2–4 · Short week 2–0 · Missed tackles 1–0
Line vs actual vs our projection
| Week | Market | Line | We projected | P(over) us / market | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 W5 | Any TD | – | 26% TD chance | 26% / 23% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Long rec | 17.5 | 19 | 54% / 51% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rec yds | 40.5 | 38 | 47% / 50% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 53% / 57% | – | … |
| 2026 W4 | Any TD | – | 28% TD chance | 28% / 29% | 1 | over |
| 2026 W4 | Rec yds | 45.5 | 39 | 43% / 51% | 54 | over |
| 2026 W4 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 48% / 57% | 6 | over |
| 2026 W3 | Any TD | – | 24% TD chance | 24% / 26% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Rec yds | 48.5 | 34 | 35% / 50% | 39 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Rec | 4.5 | 3 | 28% / 43% | 3 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Any TD | – | 15% TD chance | 15% / 20% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Rec yds | 42.5 | 28 | 32% / 51% | 64 | over |
| 2026 W2 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 39% / 55% | 5 | over |
| 2026 W1 | Any TD | – | 29% TD chance | 29% / 22% | 1 | over |
| 2026 W1 | Rec yds | 39.5 | 36 | 46% / 51% | 69 | over |
| 2026 W1 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 45% / 49% | 7 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Any TD | – | 19% TD chance | 19% / 26% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Long rec | 16.5 | 15 | 46% / 50% | 17 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Rec yds | 35.5 | 25 | 35% / 50% | 69 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Rec | 3.5 | 2 | 33% / 46% | 5 | over |
| 2025 W14 | Any TD | – | 18% TD chance | 18% / 22% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Long rec | 16.5 | 15 | 46% / 50% | 16 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Rec yds | 35.5 | 26 | 38% / 50% | 40 | over |
| 2025 W14 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 39% / 47% | 3 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Any TD | – | 19% TD chance | 19% / 21% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Long rec | 15.5 | 13 | 43% / 49% | 15 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Rec yds | 29.5 | 19 | 34% / 50% | 93 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 34% / 56% | 8 | over |
| 2025 W12 | Any TD | – | 14% TD chance | 14% / 22% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Long rec | 14.5 | 10 | 39% / 49% | 14 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Rec yds | 26.5 | 13 | 29% / 50% | 37 | over |
| 2025 W12 | Rec | 2.5 | 1 | 20% / 47% | 3 | over |
| 2025 W10 | Any TD | – | 6% TD chance | 6% / 12% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Long rec | 11.5 | 4.6 | 30% / 50% | 15 | over |
| 2025 W10 | Rec yds | 20.5 | 5.1 | 20% / 50% | 15 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 29% / 63% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Any TD | – | 5% TD chance | 5% / 6% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W8 | Any TD | – | 6% TD chance | 6% / 7% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Any TD | – | 6% TD chance | 6% / 8% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Long rec | 4.5 | 0.7 | 39% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Rec yds | 4.5 | 0.7 | 40% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Any TD | – | 8% TD chance | 8% / 9% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Long rec | 5.5 | 4.3 | 46% / 51% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Rec yds | 6.5 | 4.7 | 45% / 49% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Rec | 0.5 | 1 | 61% / 63% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Any TD | – | 8% TD chance | 8% / 5% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Any TD | – | 6% TD chance | 6% / 7% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Any TD | – | 7% TD chance | 7% / 7% | – | void |
| 2025 W2 | Any TD | – | 6% TD chance | 6% / 6% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W1 | Any TD | – | 13% TD chance | 13% / 13% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W18 | Any TD | – | 25% TD chance | 25% / 21% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W18 | Rec yds | 17.5 | 30 | 67% / 51% | 50 | over |
| 2024 W18 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 73% / 59% | 4 | over |
| 2024 W17 | Any TD | – | 23% TD chance | 23% / 24% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W17 | Rec yds | 28.5 | 31 | 54% / 49% | 27 | under |
| 2024 W17 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 56% / 51% | 2 | under |
| 2024 W16 | Any TD | – | 19% TD chance | 19% / 20% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W16 | Rec yds | 33.5 | 30 | 45% / 50% | 21 | under |
| 2024 W16 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 60% / 59% | 2 | under |
| 2024 W15 | Any TD | – | 25% TD chance | 25% / 27% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W15 | Rec yds | 34.5 | 37 | 53% / 51% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W15 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 44% / 45% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W13 | Any TD | – | 22% TD chance | 22% / 29% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W13 | Rec yds | 39.5 | 36 | 46% / 51% | 16 | under |
| 2024 W13 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 46% / 50% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W12 | Any TD | – | 18% TD chance | 18% / 26% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W12 | Rec yds | 32.5 | 30 | 47% / 51% | 80 | over |
| 2024 W12 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 37% / 42% | 6 | over |
| 2024 W11 | Any TD | – | 18% TD chance | 18% / 24% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W11 | Rec yds | 29.5 | 29 | 50% / 50% | 66 | over |
| 2024 W11 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 57% / 56% | 4 | over |
| 2024 W10 | Any TD | – | 9% TD chance | 9% / 17% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W10 | Rec yds | 22.5 | 22 | 50% / 50% | 39 | over |
| 2024 W10 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 51% / 43% | 4 | over |
| 2024 W9 | Any TD | – | 11% TD chance | 11% / 17% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W9 | Rec yds | 24.5 | 30 | 58% / 50% | 11 | under |
| 2024 W9 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 61% / 46% | 2 | under |
| 2024 W8 | Any TD | – | 16% TD chance | 16% / 25% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W8 | Rec yds | 25.5 | 37 | 64% / 50% | 28 | over |
| 2024 W8 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 59% / 47% | 3 | over |
| 2024 W7 | Any TD | – | 17% TD chance | 17% / 20% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W7 | Rec yds | 32.5 | 39 | 59% / 51% | 20 | under |
| 2024 W7 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 57% / 43% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W6 | Any TD | – | 10% TD chance | 10% / 10% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W1 | Any TD | – | – | – / 6% | 0 | under |
Our calls
- 2026 W4 Under 45.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W4 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W3 Under 48.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W3 Under 48.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W3 Under 4.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W2 Under 42.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W2 Under 42.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W2 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W1 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2025 W15 Under 35.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W15 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W14 Under 35.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W14 Under 35.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W14 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W13 Under 15.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W13 Under 29.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Under 29.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W12 Under 14.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W12 Over 26.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W12 Under 26.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W12 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W10 Under 11.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W10 Under 20.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W10 Under 20.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W10 Under 20.5 rec yds (Wind 15+ mph, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W10 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W7 Under 4.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W7 Under 4.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W7 Under 4.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W18 Under 17.5 rec yds (Freezing, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W18 Over 17.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W18 Under 17.5 rec yds (Middle of the field, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W18 Over 17.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W18 Over 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W17 Over 28.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W16 Over 33.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W16 Over 33.5 rec yds (Middle of the field, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W16 Under 33.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W16 Under 33.5 rec yds (Short week, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W15 Under 34.5 rec yds (Wind 15+ mph, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W13 Under 39.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W12 Over 32.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W12 Over 32.5 rec yds (Middle of the field, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W11 Over 29.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W10 Under 22.5 rec yds (Middle of the field, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W10 Over 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W9 Over 24.5 rec yds (Middle of the field, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W9 Over 24.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W9 Over 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W8 Over 25.5 rec yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W8 Over 25.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W8 Over 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W7 Under 32.5 rec yds (Middle of the field, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W7 Over 32.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W7 Under 32.5 rec yds (Short week, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W7 Over 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
For information and entertainment only; not betting advice. Lines are a pregame consensus of US sportsbooks via The Odds API and change quickly. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
How this works
Lines are the median across US books about an hour before kickoff. Projections are rolling-origin: made only from data before that week. Players who did not play are void.
Sources: The Odds API (US sportsbooks), nflverseFull methodology