WR · PHI · 197 lines since 2023

DeVonta Smith Player Props

Closing consensus lines for DeVonta Smith, what he did, and what our model projected before the game.

2026 Week 5

Anytime TD priced at 31% — we make it 29%

Over/under record by market

Receiving yards over 33, under 31 (64 graded)
Receptions over 25, under 24 (49 graded)
Anytime TD over 26, under 38 (64 graded)
Longest reception over 9, under 7 (16 graded)

Our calls on him: Pre-snap motion 4–8 · model 36–45 · Freezing 2–0 · Missed tackles 0–4 · Wind 15+ mph 5–1 · Explosive plays 3–7 · Starters out on defense 4–2 · Short week 2–1 · Middle of the field 1–1 · Play action 1–0

Line vs actual vs our projection

DeVonta Smith prop line history
Week	Market	Line	We projected	P(over) us / market	Actual	Result
2026 W5	Any TD	–	29% TD chance	29% / 31%	–	…
2026 W3	Any TD	–	38% TD chance	38% / 36%	0	under
2026 W3	Rec yds	71.5	73	51% / 50%	65	under
2026 W3	Rec	5.5	6	56% / 50%	6	over
2026 W2	Any TD	–	29% TD chance	29% / 33%	1	over
2026 W2	Rec yds	60.5	48	39% / 50%	117	over
2026 W2	Rec	4.5	4	41% / 55%	10	over
2026 W1	Any TD	–	42% TD chance	42% / 36%	0	under
2026 W1	Rec yds	65.5	78	60% / 50%	53	under
2026 W1	Rec	5.5	6	55% / 46%	3	under
2025 W17	Any TD	–	28% TD chance	28% / 29%	0	under
2025 W17	Long rec	19.5	22	58% / 50%	14	under
2025 W17	Rec yds	46.5	52	55% / 50%	25	under
2025 W17	Rec	4.5	5	53% / 40%	2	under
2025 W16	Any TD	–	28% TD chance	28% / 36%	1	over
2025 W16	Long rec	22.5	26	60% / 50%	16	under
2025 W16	Rec yds	57.5	60	52% / 50%	42	under
2025 W16	Rec	4.5	4	50% / 48%	6	over
2025 W15	Any TD	–	33% TD chance	33% / 33%	0	under
2025 W15	Long rec	20.5	26	66% / 50%	44	over
2025 W15	Rec yds	52.5	61	58% / 50%	50	under
2025 W15	Rec	4.5	5	54% / 50%	2	under
2025 W14	Any TD	–	27% TD chance	27% / 29%	0	under
2025 W14	Long rec	21.5	24	57% / 51%	28	over
2025 W14	Rec yds	56.5	57	51% / 50%	37	under
2025 W14	Rec	4.5	5	54% / 56%	4	under
2025 W13	Any TD	–	33% TD chance	33% / 33%	0	under
2025 W13	Long rec	21.5	29	69% / 50%	30	over
2025 W13	Rec yds	54.5	72	64% / 50%	48	under
2025 W13	Rec	4.5	5	60% / 50%	5	over
2025 W12	Any TD	–	31% TD chance	31% / 37%	0	under
2025 W12	Long rec	22.5	27	62% / 50%	41	over
2025 W12	Rec yds	60.5	65	54% / 50%	89	over
2025 W12	Rec	4.5	5	56% / 52%	6	over
2025 W11	Any TD	–	33% TD chance	33% / 38%	0	under
2025 W11	Long rec	22.5	26	60% / 49%	8	under
2025 W11	Rec yds	57.5	67	58% / 50%	8	under
2025 W11	Rec	4.5	5	61% / 52%	1	under
2025 W10	Any TD	–	32% TD chance	32% / 31%	1	over
2025 W10	Long rec	20.5	26	68% / 52%	36	over
2025 W10	Rec yds	55.5	75	67% / 50%	69	over
2025 W10	Rec	4.5	6	74% / 54%	4	under
2025 W8	Any TD	–	43% TD chance	43% / 38%	0	under
2025 W8	Long rec	26.5	31	64% / 49%	26	under
2025 W8	Rec yds	73.5	106	71% / 50%	84	over
2025 W8	Rec	5.5	8	78% / 56%	6	over
2025 W7	Any TD	–	29% TD chance	29% / 27%	1	over
2025 W7	Long rec	20.5	22	53% / 50%	79	over
2025 W7	Rec yds	50.5	51	50% / 50%	183	over
2025 W7	Rec	4.5	5	54% / 45%	9	over
2025 W6	Any TD	–	31% TD chance	31% / 29%	0	under
2025 W6	Long rec	19.5	23	62% / 52%	16	under
2025 W6	Rec yds	50.5	58	57% / 50%	49	under
2025 W6	Rec	4.5	5	58% / 51%	4	under
2025 W5	Any TD	–	28% TD chance	28% / 27%	0	under
2025 W5	Long rec	19.5	21	56% / 49%	52	over
2025 W5	Rec yds	47.5	52	54% / 51%	114	over
2025 W5	Rec	4.5	5	53% / 44%	8	over
2025 W4	Any TD	–	29% TD chance	29% / 30%	0	under
2025 W4	Long rec	19.5	22	58% / 50%	20	over
2025 W4	Rec yds	49.5	53	53% / 50%	29	under
2025 W4	Rec	4.5	5	58% / 48%	2	under
2025 W3	Any TD	–	28% TD chance	28% / 29%	1	over
2025 W3	Long rec	20.5	22	55% / 50%	16	under
2025 W3	Rec yds	49.5	52	52% / 49%	60	over
2025 W3	Rec	4.5	5	52% / 44%	8	over
2025 W2	Any TD	–	29% TD chance	29% / 32%	0	under
2025 W2	Long rec	22.5	22	49% / 50%	28	over
2025 W2	Rec yds	60.5	54	43% / 50%	53	under
2025 W2	Rec	5.5	5	40% / 44%	4	under
2025 W1	Any TD	–	44% TD chance	44% / 34%	0	under
2025 W1	Long rec	21.5	28	68% / 51%	7	under
2025 W1	Rec yds	53.5	72	65% / 50%	16	under
2025 W1	Rec	4.5	6	64% / 47%	3	under
2024 W17	Any TD	–	28% TD chance	28% / 31%	1	over
2024 W17	Rec yds	48.5	53	55% / 50%	120	over
2024 W17	Rec	4.5	5	56% / 50%	6	over
2024 W16	Any TD	–	36% TD chance	36% / 37%	0	under
2024 W16	Rec yds	53.5	59	55% / 51%	51	under
2024 W16	Rec	4.5	5	57% / 53%	6	over
2024 W15	Any TD	–	29% TD chance	29% / 32%	1	over
2024 W15	Rec yds	47.5	52	54% / 50%	109	over
2024 W15	Rec	3.5	4	62% / 59%	11	over
2024 W14	Any TD	–	31% TD chance	31% / 36%	1	over
2024 W14	Rec yds	47.5	59	59% / 50%	37	under
2024 W14	Rec	4.5	4	47% / 42%	4	under
2024 W13	Any TD	–	21% TD chance	21% / 34%	–	void
2024 W11	Any TD	–	27% TD chance	27% / 38%	0	under
2024 W11	Rec yds	56.5	50	44% / 50%	29	under
2024 W11	Rec	4.5	4	40% / 46%	4	under
2024 W10	Any TD	–	31% TD chance	31% / 38%	0	under
2024 W10	Rec yds	55.5	58	53% / 50%	14	under
2024 W10	Rec	4.5	4	50% / 46%	2	under
2024 W9	Any TD	–	33% TD chance	33% / 37%	1	over
2024 W9	Rec yds	56.5	63	56% / 50%	87	over
2024 W9	Rec	4.5	5	57% / 49%	4	under
2024 W8	Any TD	–	28% TD chance	28% / 33%	1	over
2024 W8	Rec yds	55.5	53	47% / 51%	85	over
2024 W8	Rec	4.5	5	52% / 58%	6	over
2024 W7	Any TD	–	30% TD chance	30% / 33%	0	under
2024 W7	Rec yds	57.5	55	48% / 51%	-2	under
2024 W7	Rec	4.5	5	53% / 57%	1	under
2024 W6	Any TD	–	31% TD chance	31% / 35%	1	over
2024 W6	Rec yds	56.5	66	60% / 51%	64	over
2024 W6	Rec	4.5	5	64% / 56%	3	under
2024 W4	Any TD	–	–	– / 38%	–	void
2024 W3	Any TD	–	33% TD chance	33% / 41%	0	under
2024 W3	Rec yds	71.5	79	56% / 51%	79	over
2024 W3	Rec	5.5	7	65% / 55%	7	over
2024 W2	Any TD	–	34% TD chance	34% / 43%	1	over
2024 W2	Rec yds	74.5	61	38% / 51%	76	over
2024 W2	Rec	5.5	5	41% / 57%	7	over
2024 W1	Any TD	–	30% TD chance	30% / 36%	0	under
2024 W1	Rec yds	59.5	50	42% / 50%	84	over
2024 W1	Rec	4.5	4	44% / 55%	7	over
2023 W18	Any TD	–	–	– / 32%	–	void
2023 W17	Any TD	–	27% TD chance	27% / 37%	0	under
2023 W17	Any TD	–	27% TD chance	27% / 40%	0	under
2023 W17	Rec yds	55.5	67	60% / 50%	30	under
2023 W17	Rec yds	55.5	67	60% / 50%	30	under
2023 W17	Rec	4.5	5	54% / 49%	3	under
2023 W16	Any TD	–	27% TD chance	27% / 38%	1	over
2023 W16	Any TD	–	27% TD chance	27% / 36%	1	over
2023 W16	Rec yds	55.5	69	60% / 48%	79	over
2023 W16	Rec yds	54.5	69	61% / 50%	79	over
2023 W16	Rec	4.5	5	59% / 50%	4	under
2023 W15	Any TD	–	25% TD chance	25% / 38%	0	under
2023 W15	Any TD	–	25% TD chance	25% / 37%	0	under
2023 W15	Rec yds	60.5	71	59% / 48%	50	under
2023 W15	Rec yds	57.5	71	62% / 50%	50	under
2023 W15	Rec	4.5	5	64% / 52%	5	over
2023 W14	Any TD	–	29% TD chance	29% / 38%	0	under
2023 W14	Any TD	–	29% TD chance	29% / 36%	0	under
2023 W14	Rec yds	55.5	72	64% / 50%	73	over
2023 W14	Rec yds	57.5	72	62% / 50%	73	over
2023 W14	Rec	4.5	6	66% / 55%	5	over
2023 W13	Any TD	–	26% TD chance	26% / 35%	1	over
2023 W13	Any TD	–	26% TD chance	26% / 35%	1	over
2023 W13	Rec yds	55.5	69	62% / 50%	96	over
2023 W13	Rec yds	60.5	69	57% / 48%	96	over
2023 W13	Rec	4.5	6	67% / 56%	9	over
2023 W12	Any TD	–	33% TD chance	33% / 39%	1	over
2023 W12	Any TD	–	33% TD chance	33% / 42%	1	over
2023 W12	Rec yds	55.5	70	62% / 50%	106	over
2023 W12	Rec yds	57.5	70	61% / 53%	106	over
2023 W12	Rec	4.5	5	62% / 56%	7	over
2023 W11	Any TD	–	27% TD chance	27% / 35%	0	under
2023 W11	Any TD	–	27% TD chance	27% / 33%	0	under
2023 W11	Rec yds	57.5	56	49% / 50%	99	over
2023 W11	Rec yds	60.5	56	46% / 51%	99	over
2023 W11	Rec	4.5	5	57% / 57%	6	over
2023 W9	Any TD	–	29% TD chance	29% / 33%	1	over
2023 W9	Any TD	–	29% TD chance	29% / 29%	1	over
2023 W9	Rec yds	50.5	56	56% / 49%	51	over
2023 W9	Rec yds	50.5	56	56% / 50%	51	over
2023 W9	Rec	4.5	5	51% / 45%	3	under
2023 W8	Any TD	–	22% TD chance	22% / 28%	1	over
2023 W8	Any TD	–	22% TD chance	22% / 36%	1	over
2023 W8	Rec yds	51.5	52	51% / 51%	99	over
2023 W8	Rec yds	50.5	52	52% / 52%	99	over
2023 W8	Rec	4.5	4	48% / 46%	7	over
2023 W7	Any TD	–	25% TD chance	25% / 28%	0	under
2023 W7	Any TD	–	25% TD chance	25% / 31%	0	under
2023 W7	Rec yds	55.5	61	56% / 49%	49	under
2023 W7	Rec yds	56.5	61	54% / 50%	49	under
2023 W7	Rec	5.5	5	37% / 44%	4	under
2023 W6	Any TD	–	29% TD chance	29% / 33%	0	under
2023 W6	Any TD	–	29% TD chance	29% / 32%	0	under
2023 W6	Rec yds	60.5	53	44% / 50%	44	under
2023 W6	Rec yds	60.5	53	44% / 50%	44	under
2023 W6	Rec	4.5	4	47% / 53%	5	over
2023 W5	Any TD	–	22% TD chance	22% / 34%	0	under
2023 W5	Any TD	–	22% TD chance	22% / 35%	0	under
2023 W5	Rec yds	65.5	70	53% / 48%	6	under
2023 W5	Rec yds	62.5	70	55% / 50%	6	under
2023 W5	Rec	4.5	6	62% / 57%	1	under
2023 W4	Any TD	–	24% TD chance	24% / 40%	0	under
2023 W4	Any TD	–	24% TD chance	24% / 33%	0	under
2023 W4	Rec yds	61.5	71	58% / 50%	78	over
2023 W4	Rec yds	60.5	71	58% / 50%	78	over
2023 W4	Rec	4.5	6	65% / 56%	7	over
2023 W3	Any TD	–	31% TD chance	31% / 38%	0	under
2023 W3	Any TD	–	31% TD chance	31% / 35%	0	under
2023 W3	Rec yds	60.5	89	72% / 51%	28	under
2023 W3	Rec yds	61.5	89	71% / 51%	28	under
2023 W3	Rec	4.5	7	78% / 57%	4	under
2023 W3	Rec	4.5	7	78% / 56%	4	under
2023 W2	Any TD	–	25% TD chance	25% / 41%	1	over
2023 W2	Any TD	–	25% TD chance	25% / 38%	1	over
2023 W2	Rec yds	66.5	73	55% / 51%	131	over
2023 W2	Rec yds	65.5	73	56% / 50%	131	over
2023 W2	Rec	5.5	6	62% / 50%	4	under
2023 W1	Any TD	–	–	– / 34%	1	over
2023 W1	Any TD	–	–	– / 33%	1	over
2023 W1	Rec yds	65.5	–	– / 50%	47	under
2023 W1	Rec yds	62.5	–	– / 51%	47	under
2023 W1	Rec	4.5	–	– / 54%	7	over

Our calls

2026 W3 Over 71.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
2026 W3 Over 5.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
2026 W2 Under 60.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
2026 W2 Under 4.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
2026 W1 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
2026 W1 Over 65.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
2026 W1 Over 5.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
2025 W17 Over 19.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W17 Over 46.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W17 Over 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W16 Over 22.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W16 Over 57.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
2025 W15 Over 20.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W15 Under 52.5 rec yds (Freezing, backtest) ✅
2025 W15 Over 52.5 rec yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ❌
2025 W15 Over 52.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W15 Under 52.5 rec yds (Wind 15+ mph, backtest) ✅
2025 W14 Over 21.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W14 Under 56.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
2025 W13 Over 21.5 yds longest rec (Explosive plays, backtest) ✅
2025 W13 Over 21.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W13 Over 54.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
2025 W13 Over 54.5 rec yds (Explosive plays, backtest) ❌
2025 W13 Over 54.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W13 Over 54.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
2025 W13 Under 54.5 rec yds (Wind 15+ mph, backtest) ✅
2025 W13 Over 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W12 Over 22.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W12 Over 60.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
2025 W11 Over 22.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W11 Over 57.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W11 Under 57.5 rec yds (Wind 15+ mph, backtest) ✅
2025 W11 Over 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W10 Under 20.5 yds longest rec (Explosive plays, backtest) ❌
2025 W10 Over 20.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W10 Over 55.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
2025 W10 Under 55.5 rec yds (Explosive plays, backtest) ❌
2025 W10 Over 55.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W10 Under 55.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
2025 W10 Over 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W8 Over 26.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W8 Over 73.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
2025 W8 Under 73.5 rec yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ❌
2025 W8 Over 73.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W8 Over 5.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W7 Under 50.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
2025 W7 Over 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W6 Over 19.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W6 Over 50.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W6 Under 50.5 rec yds (Short week, backtest) ✅
2025 W6 Over 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W5 Over 19.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W5 Under 47.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
2025 W5 Over 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W4 Over 19.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W4 Over 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W3 Over 20.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W3 Under 49.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
2025 W3 Over 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W2 Under 60.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅

For information and entertainment only; not betting advice. Lines are a pregame consensus of US sportsbooks via The Odds API and change quickly. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

How this works

Lines are the median across US books about an hour before kickoff. Projections are rolling-origin: made only from data before that week. Players who did not play are void.

Sources: The Odds API (US sportsbooks), nflverseFull methodology