WR · BUF · 246 lines since 2023

DJ Moore Player Props

Closing consensus lines for DJ Moore, what he did, and what our model projected before the game.

2026 Week 5

Anytime TD priced at 35% — we make it 19%

Over/under record by market

Rushing yards over 7, under 4 (11 graded)
Receiving yards over 31, under 41 (72 graded)
Receptions over 39, under 32 (71 graded)
Anytime TD over 23, under 49 (72 graded)
Rush attempts over 1, under 1 (2 graded)
Longest reception over 7, under 10 (17 graded)

Our calls on him: Starters out on defense 3–3 · model 44–56 · Missed tackles 15–6 · Short week 2–3 · Pre-snap motion 6–8 · Freezing 1–4 · Wind 15+ mph 4–0 · Man coverage 1–1 · Middle of the field 2–2 · Play action 0–1 · Explosive plays 4–3

Line vs actual vs our projection

DJ Moore prop line history
Week	Market	Line	We projected	P(over) us / market	Actual	Result
2026 W5	Any TD	–	19% TD chance	19% / 35%	–	…
2026 W4	Any TD	–	34% TD chance	34% / 39%	0	under
2026 W4	Rec yds	50.5	49	48% / 50%	11	under
2026 W4	Rec	3.5	3	48% / 58%	1	under
2026 W3	Any TD	–	32% TD chance	32% / 36%	0	under
2026 W3	Rec yds	48.5	40	41% / 50%	67	over
2026 W3	Rec	3.5	3	36% / 55%	6	over
2026 W2	Any TD	–	33% TD chance	33% / 40%	0	under
2026 W2	Rec yds	62.5	58	47% / 50%	0	under
2026 W2	Rec	4.5	4	40% / 49%	0	under
2026 W1	Any TD	–	32% TD chance	32% / 29%	1	over
2026 W1	Rec yds	47.5	39	41% / 50%	100	over
2026 W1	Rec	3.5	3	43% / 56%	5	over
2025 W18	Any TD	–	41% TD chance	41% / 36%	0	under
2025 W18	Long rec	18.5	26	69% / 51%	11	under
2025 W18	Rec yds	35.5	55	67% / 51%	11	under
2025 W18	Rec	2.5	4	74% / 58%	1	under
2025 W17	Any TD	–	35% TD chance	35% / 34%	0	under
2025 W17	Long rec	19.5	25	66% / 50%	7	under
2025 W17	Rec yds	42.5	57	64% / 50%	7	under
2025 W17	Rec	3.5	4	64% / 49%	1	under
2025 W16	Any TD	–	37% TD chance	37% / 41%	1	over
2025 W16	Long rec	19.5	25	67% / 49%	46	over
2025 W16	Rec yds	44.5	63	66% / 50%	97	over
2025 W16	Rec	3.5	5	72% / 56%	5	over
2025 W15	Any TD	–	30% TD chance	30% / 26%	1	over
2025 W15	Long rec	14.5	19	66% / 50%	25	over
2025 W15	Rec yds	26.5	38	63% / 50%	69	over
2025 W15	Rec	2.5	3	64% / 49%	4	over
2025 W14	Any TD	–	30% TD chance	30% / 28%	0	under
2025 W14	Long rec	17.5	21	63% / 52%	-4	under
2025 W14	Rec yds	39.5	49	62% / 50%	-4	under
2025 W14	Rec	3.5	5	66% / 51%	1	under
2025 W13	Any TD	–	19% TD chance	19% / 20%	0	under
2025 W13	Long rec	16.5	17	53% / 51%	11	under
2025 W13	Rec yds	34.5	35	50% / 50%	17	under
2025 W13	Rec	3.5	3	49% / 40%	2	under
2025 W13	Rush yds	1.5	0	37% / 50%	10	over
2025 W12	Any TD	–	26% TD chance	26% / 31%	1	over
2025 W12	Long rec	17.5	22	61% / 50%	25	over
2025 W12	Rec yds	33.5	42	60% / 50%	64	over
2025 W12	Rec	2.5	3	68% / 56%	5	over
2025 W12	Rush yds	0.5	0	46% / 42%	0	under
2025 W11	Any TD	–	22% TD chance	22% / 32%	0	under
2025 W11	Long rec	18.5	20	54% / 51%	18	under
2025 W11	Rec yds	40.5	39	48% / 49%	18	under
2025 W11	Rec	3.5	3	48% / 48%	1	under
2025 W10	Any TD	–	28% TD chance	28% / 33%	0	under
2025 W10	Long rec	18.5	23	63% / 49%	0	under
2025 W10	Rec yds	40.5	47	57% / 49%	0	under
2025 W10	Rec	3.5	4	57% / 47%	0	under
2025 W9	Any TD	–	35% TD chance	35% / 35%	1	over
2025 W9	Long rec	21.5	24	57% / 50%	23	over
2025 W9	Rec yds	49.5	55	56% / 50%	72	over
2025 W9	Rec	4.5	5	50% / 43%	4	under
2025 W9	Rush yds	8.5	7.5	47% / 50%	17	over
2025 W8	Any TD	–	26% TD chance	26% / 28%	0	under
2025 W8	Long rec	18.5	22	60% / 49%	42	over
2025 W8	Rec yds	36.5	51	66% / 51%	73	over
2025 W8	Rec	3.5	5	69% / 49%	4	over
2025 W8	Rush yds	2.5	2	48% / 52%	3	over
2025 W7	Any TD	–	30% TD chance	30% / 31%	0	under
2025 W7	Long rec	17.5	21	63% / 50%	26	over
2025 W7	Rec yds	35.5	48	64% / 50%	43	over
2025 W7	Rec	3.5	4	64% / 47%	3	under
2025 W7	Rush att	1.5	1	35% / 38%	1	under
2025 W6	Any TD	–	30% TD chance	30% / 32%	0	under
2025 W6	Long rec	17.5	20	60% / 50%	17	under
2025 W6	Rec yds	38.5	48	61% / 50%	42	over
2025 W6	Rec	3.5	5	68% / 54%	3	under
2025 W6	Rush att	1.5	1	27% / 41%	2	over
2025 W6	Rush yds	6.5	0.2	27% / 50%	10	over
2025 W4	Any TD	–	34% TD chance	34% / 35%	0	under
2025 W4	Long rec	18.5	22	64% / 51%	17	under
2025 W4	Rec yds	45.5	56	60% / 50%	38	under
2025 W4	Rec	4.5	5	59% / 44%	4	under
2025 W4	Rush yds	3.5	2.4	46% / 48%	0	under
2025 W3	Any TD	–	36% TD chance	36% / 36%	1	over
2025 W3	Long rec	21.5	24	59% / 49%	12	under
2025 W3	Rec yds	51.5	63	61% / 51%	21	under
2025 W3	Rec	4.5	5	62% / 48%	4	under
2025 W3	Rush yds	2.5	0.9	44% / 50%	7	over
2025 W2	Any TD	–	30% TD chance	30% / 34%	0	under
2025 W2	Long rec	19.5	22	60% / 50%	18	under
2025 W2	Rec yds	50.5	57	56% / 50%	46	under
2025 W2	Rec	4.5	5	63% / 53%	5	over
2025 W1	Any TD	–	42% TD chance	42% / 36%	0	under
2025 W1	Long rec	22.5	25	58% / 48%	30	over
2025 W1	Rec yds	57.5	80	69% / 49%	68	over
2025 W1	Rec	5.5	8	73% / 47%	3	under
2025 W1	Rush yds	4.5	0	32% / 49%	8	over
2024 W18	Any TD	–	22% TD chance	22% / 27%	1	over
2024 W18	Rec yds	56.5	46	38% / 52%	86	over
2024 W18	Rec	5.5	5	49% / 53%	9	over
2024 W17	Any TD	–	30% TD chance	30% / 34%	0	under
2024 W17	Rec yds	56.5	52	46% / 50%	54	under
2024 W17	Rec	5.5	5	47% / 56%	6	over
2024 W16	Any TD	–	27% TD chance	27% / 36%	0	under
2024 W16	Rec yds	56.5	54	47% / 50%	68	over
2024 W16	Rec	5.5	5	48% / 53%	7	over
2024 W15	Any TD	–	28% TD chance	28% / 33%	0	under
2024 W15	Rec yds	58.5	56	48% / 51%	46	under
2024 W15	Rec	5.5	5	50% / 51%	8	over
2024 W14	Any TD	–	25% TD chance	25% / 33%	0	under
2024 W14	Rec yds	54.5	48	44% / 50%	49	under
2024 W14	Rec	5.5	5	37% / 45%	6	over
2024 W14	Rush yds	0.5	0	35% / 33%	0	under
2024 W13	Any TD	–	26% TD chance	26% / 32%	1	over
2024 W13	Rec yds	56.5	46	39% / 49%	97	over
2024 W13	Rec	5.5	4	36% / 44%	8	over
2024 W12	Any TD	–	24% TD chance	24% / 27%	1	over
2024 W12	Rec yds	47.5	49	51% / 50%	106	over
2024 W12	Rec	4.5	5	55% / 52%	7	over
2024 W12	Rush yds	0.5	0	33% / 34%	13	over
2024 W11	Any TD	–	22% TD chance	22% / 26%	0	under
2024 W11	Rec yds	43.5	42	48% / 51%	62	over
2024 W11	Rec	3.5	4	61% / 58%	7	over
2024 W10	Any TD	–	28% TD chance	28% / 35%	0	under
2024 W10	Rec yds	46.5	49	53% / 50%	24	under
2024 W10	Rec	4.5	4	47% / 43%	3	under
2024 W9	Any TD	–	30% TD chance	30% / 34%	0	under
2024 W9	Rec yds	54.5	48	44% / 50%	33	under
2024 W9	Rec	4.5	4	48% / 51%	4	under
2024 W8	Any TD	–	32% TD chance	32% / 36%	0	under
2024 W8	Rec yds	59.5	53	44% / 50%	27	under
2024 W8	Rec	4.5	5	52% / 57%	2	under
2024 W6	Any TD	–	27% TD chance	27% / 40%	0	under
2024 W6	Rec yds	64.5	59	44% / 51%	20	under
2024 W6	Rec	5.5	5	44% / 46%	4	under
2024 W5	Any TD	–	29% TD chance	29% / 35%	1	over
2024 W5	Rec yds	52.5	50	47% / 49%	105	over
2024 W5	Rec	4.5	4	49% / 52%	5	over
2024 W4	Any TD	–	25% TD chance	25% / 36%	1	over
2024 W4	Rec yds	58.5	58	50% / 51%	22	under
2024 W4	Rec	4.5	5	60% / 55%	3	under
2024 W4	Rush yds	0.5	0	23% / 20%	0	under
2024 W3	Any TD	–	27% TD chance	27% / 37%	0	under
2024 W3	Rec yds	61.5	68	55% / 50%	78	over
2024 W3	Rec	5.5	6	56% / 47%	8	over
2024 W2	Any TD	–	25% TD chance	25% / 38%	0	under
2024 W2	Rec yds	70.5	60	41% / 51%	53	under
2024 W2	Rec	5.5	5	47% / 51%	6	over
2024 W1	Any TD	–	32% TD chance	32% / 38%	0	under
2024 W1	Rec yds	61.5	79	63% / 50%	36	under
2024 W1	Rec	4.5	6	69% / 55%	5	over
2023 W18	Any TD	–	37% TD chance	37% / 37%	0	under
2023 W18	Any TD	–	37% TD chance	37% / 42%	0	under
2023 W18	Rec yds	68.5	96	70% / 50%	64	under
2023 W18	Rec yds	69.5	96	69% / 50%	64	under
2023 W18	Rec	4.5	8	83% / 58%	4	under
2023 W18	Rec	5.5	8	75% / 44%	4	under
2023 W17	Any TD	–	41% TD chance	41% / 37%	1	over
2023 W17	Any TD	–	41% TD chance	41% / 39%	1	over
2023 W17	Rec yds	64.5	92	70% / 47%	159	over
2023 W17	Rec yds	65.5	92	70% / 50%	159	over
2023 W17	Rec	4.5	8	83% / 56%	9	over
2023 W17	Rec	4.5	8	83% / 55%	9	over
2023 W16	Any TD	–	31% TD chance	31% / 44%	0	under
2023 W16	Any TD	–	31% TD chance	31% / 41%	0	under
2023 W16	Rec yds	67.5	78	59% / 50%	18	under
2023 W16	Rec yds	68.5	78	59% / 50%	18	under
2023 W16	Rec	5.5	6	59% / 44%	3	under
2023 W16	Rec	5.5	6	59% / 44%	3	under
2023 W15	Any TD	–	21% TD chance	21% / 34%	0	under
2023 W15	Any TD	–	21% TD chance	21% / 36%	0	under
2023 W15	Rec yds	59.5	60	51% / 50%	52	under
2023 W15	Rec yds	60.5	60	50% / 50%	52	under
2023 W15	Rec	4.5	6	67% / 55%	4	under
2023 W15	Rec	4.5	6	67% / 53%	4	under
2023 W14	Any TD	–	25% TD chance	25% / 38%	1	over
2023 W14	Any TD	–	25% TD chance	25% / 41%	1	over
2023 W14	Rec yds	73.5	76	52% / 50%	68	under
2023 W14	Rec yds	70.5	76	54% / 52%	68	under
2023 W14	Rec	5.5	7	62% / 50%	6	over
2023 W14	Rec	5.5	7	62% / 46%	6	over
2023 W12	Any TD	–	26% TD chance	26% / 36%	0	under
2023 W12	Any TD	–	26% TD chance	26% / 38%	0	under
2023 W12	Rec yds	65.5	70	54% / 50%	114	over
2023 W12	Rec yds	66.5	70	53% / 52%	114	over
2023 W12	Rec	4.5	6	68% / 62%	11	over
2023 W12	Rec	4.5	6	68% / 64%	11	over
2023 W11	Any TD	–	20% TD chance	20% / 34%	1	over
2023 W11	Any TD	–	20% TD chance	20% / 38%	1	over
2023 W11	Rec yds	62.5	70	56% / 50%	96	over
2023 W11	Rec yds	59.5	70	58% / 50%	96	over
2023 W11	Rec	4.5	6	65% / 49%	7	over
2023 W11	Rec	4.5	6	65% / 51%	7	over
2023 W10	Any TD	–	25% TD chance	25% / 31%	0	under
2023 W10	Any TD	–	25% TD chance	25% / 39%	0	under
2023 W10	Rec yds	55.5	59	54% / 51%	58	over
2023 W10	Rec yds	55.5	59	54% / 50%	58	over
2023 W10	Rec	4.5	5	58% / 49%	5	over
2023 W10	Rec	4.5	5	58% / 49%	5	over
2023 W9	Any TD	–	18% TD chance	18% / 29%	0	under
2023 W9	Any TD	–	18% TD chance	18% / 34%	0	under
2023 W9	Rec yds	59.5	61	51% / 48%	44	under
2023 W9	Rec yds	59.5	61	51% / 50%	44	under
2023 W9	Rec	4.5	6	68% / 58%	3	under
2023 W9	Rec	5.5	6	54% / 41%	3	under
2023 W8	Any TD	–	23% TD chance	23% / 30%	0	under
2023 W8	Any TD	–	23% TD chance	23% / 37%	0	under
2023 W8	Rec yds	59.5	72	62% / 50%	55	under
2023 W8	Rec yds	60.5	72	61% / 50%	55	under
2023 W8	Rec	4.5	7	74% / 58%	4	under
2023 W8	Rec	4.5	7	74% / 57%	4	under
2023 W7	Any TD	–	23% TD chance	23% / 28%	0	under
2023 W7	Any TD	–	23% TD chance	23% / 38%	0	under
2023 W7	Rec yds	55.5	76	66% / 49%	54	under
2023 W7	Rec yds	57.5	76	65% / 50%	54	under
2023 W7	Rec	4.5	6	73% / 49%	8	over
2023 W7	Rec	4.5	6	73% / 50%	8	over
2023 W6	Any TD	–	39% TD chance	39% / 32%	0	under
2023 W6	Any TD	–	39% TD chance	39% / 44%	0	under
2023 W6	Rec yds	62.5	112	80% / 50%	51	under
2023 W6	Rec yds	61.5	112	81% / 51%	51	under
2023 W6	Rec	4.5	9	87% / 48%	5	over
2023 W6	Rec	4.5	9	87% / 48%	5	over
2023 W5	Any TD	–	27% TD chance	27% / 38%	1	over
2023 W5	Any TD	–	27% TD chance	27% / 31%	1	over
2023 W5	Rec yds	55.5	64	58% / 50%	230	over
2023 W5	Rec yds	55.5	64	58% / 50%	230	over
2023 W5	Rec	3.5	6	79% / 59%	8	over
2023 W5	Rec	3.5	6	79% / 59%	8	over
2023 W4	Any TD	–	28% TD chance	28% / 38%	1	over
2023 W4	Any TD	–	28% TD chance	28% / 27%	1	over
2023 W4	Rec yds	47.5	68	68% / 50%	131	over
2023 W4	Rec yds	47.5	68	68% / 51%	131	over
2023 W4	Rec	3.5	6	78% / 51%	8	over
2023 W4	Rec	3.5	6	78% / 52%	8	over
2023 W3	Any TD	–	20% TD chance	20% / 22%	1	over
2023 W3	Any TD	–	20% TD chance	20% / 29%	1	over
2023 W3	Rec yds	44.5	39	44% / 50%	41	under
2023 W3	Rec yds	44.5	39	44% / 50%	41	under
2023 W3	Rec	3.5	4	62% / 51%	3	under
2023 W3	Rec	3.5	4	62% / 53%	3	under
2023 W2	Any TD	–	15% TD chance	15% / 25%	0	under
2023 W2	Any TD	–	15% TD chance	15% / 32%	0	under
2023 W2	Rec yds	45.5	20	17% / 52%	104	over
2023 W2	Rec yds	45.5	20	17% / 50%	104	over
2023 W2	Rec	3.5	2	28% / 48%	6	over
2023 W2	Rec	3.5	2	28% / 49%	6	over
2023 W1	Any TD	–	–	– / 35%	0	under
2023 W1	Any TD	–	–	– / 36%	0	under
2023 W1	Rec yds	45.5	–	– / 52%	25	under
2023 W1	Rec yds	47.5	–	– / 50%	25	under
2023 W1	Rec	3.5	–	– / 55%	2	under

Our calls

2026 W4 Over 50.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
2026 W4 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
2026 W3 Under 48.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
2026 W3 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
2026 W2 Under 62.5 rec yds (Missed tackles, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
2026 W2 Under 62.5 rec yds (Short week, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
2026 W2 Under 4.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
2026 W1 Under 47.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
2026 W1 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
2025 W18 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W18 Over 18.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W18 Under 35.5 rec yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ✅
2025 W18 Over 35.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W18 Over 35.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
2025 W18 Over 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W17 Over 19.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W17 Over 42.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
2025 W17 Over 42.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W17 Over 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W16 Over 19.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W16 Under 44.5 rec yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ❌
2025 W16 Over 44.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W16 Under 44.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
2025 W16 Over 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W15 Over 14.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W15 Under 26.5 rec yds (Freezing, backtest) ❌
2025 W15 Over 26.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
2025 W15 Over 26.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W15 Under 26.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
2025 W15 Over 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W14 Over 17.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W14 Under 39.5 rec yds (Freezing, backtest) ✅
2025 W14 Over 39.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W14 Under 39.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
2025 W14 Over 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W13 Under 34.5 rec yds (Wind 15+ mph, backtest) ✅
2025 W13 Over 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W13 Under 1.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W12 Over 17.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W12 Over 33.5 rec yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ✅
2025 W12 Over 33.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W12 Over 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W10 Over 18.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W10 Under 40.5 rec yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ✅
2025 W10 Over 40.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W10 Over 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W9 Over 21.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W9 Over 49.5 rec yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ✅
2025 W9 Over 49.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W9 Over 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W8 Over 18.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W8 Over 36.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W8 Over 36.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
2025 W8 Over 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W7 Over 17.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W7 Over 35.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W7 Over 35.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
2025 W7 Over 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W6 Over 17.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W6 Over 38.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅

For information and entertainment only; not betting advice. Lines are a pregame consensus of US sportsbooks via The Odds API and change quickly. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

How this works

Lines are the median across US books about an hour before kickoff. Projections are rolling-origin: made only from data before that week. Players who did not play are void.

Sources: The Odds API (US sportsbooks), nflverseFull methodology