Edgehalla

TE · CIN · 101 lines since 2023

Drew Sample Player Props

Closing consensus lines for Drew Sample, what he did, and what our model projected before the game.

2026 Week 5

  • Anytime TD priced at 11% — we make it 19%

Over/under record by market

  • Receiving yards over 7, under 14 (21 graded)
  • Receptions over 7, under 13 (20 graded)
  • Anytime TD over 4, under 51 (55 graded)
  • Longest reception over 1, under 3 (4 graded)

Our calls on him: model 14–34 · Starters out on defense 2–0 · Short week 2–1 · Freezing 0–1

Line vs actual vs our projection

Drew Sample prop line history
WeekMarketLineWe projectedP(over) us / marketActualResult
2026 W5Any TD–19% TD chance19% / 11%–…
2026 W4Any TD–19% TD chance19% / 13%0under
2026 W4Rec yds7.56.247% / 49%0under
2026 W4Rec1.5134% / 41%0under
2026 W3Any TD–18% TD chance18% / 11%0under
2026 W3Rec yds6.55.847% / 50%0under
2026 W3Rec1.5132% / 38%1under
2026 W2Any TD–13% TD chance13% / 8%0under
2026 W2Rec yds8.5644% / 51%0under
2026 W2Rec1.5137% / 42%0under
2026 W1Any TD–26% TD chance26% / 9%0under
2025 W18Any TD–12% TD chance12% / 8%0under
2025 W17Any TD–14% TD chance14% / 8%0under
2025 W17Long rec4.52.645% / 51%8over
2025 W17Rec yds5.52.844% / 49%8over
2025 W17Rec0.5155% / 63%1over
2025 W16Any TD–14% TD chance14% / 9%0under
2025 W15Any TD–13% TD chance13% / 7%0under
2025 W14Any TD–13% TD chance13% / 10%0under
2025 W13Any TD–17% TD chance17% / 5%0under
2025 W12Any TD–12% TD chance12% / 6%0under
2025 W11Any TD–13% TD chance13% / 8%0under
2025 W9Any TD–14% TD chance14% / 8%0under
2025 W9Long rec2.53.252% / 51%0under
2025 W9Rec yds2.53.552% / 51%0under
2025 W9Rec0.5159% / 58%0under
2025 W8Any TD–16% TD chance16% / 9%0under
2025 W7Any TD–16% TD chance16% / 11%0under
2025 W7Rec yds6.51060% / 51%0under
2025 W7Rec1.5149% / 41%0under
2025 W6Any TD–9% TD chance9% / 5%0under
2025 W6Long rec3.54.152% / 50%-2under
2025 W6Rec yds3.54.654% / 50%-2under
2025 W6Rec0.5167% / 59%1over
2025 W5Any TD–12% TD chance12% / 6%0under
2025 W4Any TD–14% TD chance14% / 9%0under
2025 W4Long rec7.57.249% / 52%0under
2025 W4Rec yds8.59.352% / 51%0under
2025 W4Rec1.5147% / 43%0under
2025 W3Any TD–11% TD chance11% / 5%1over
2025 W2Any TD–14% TD chance14% / 6%0under
2025 W1Any TD–11% TD chance11% / 5%0under
2024 W18Any TD–13% TD chance13% / 8%0under
2024 W18Rec yds5.56.051% / 50%14over
2024 W18Rec1.5132% / 34%4over
2024 W17Any TD–14% TD chance14% / 13%0under
2024 W17Rec yds8.58.450% / 50%3under
2024 W17Rec1.5140% / 41%1under
2024 W16Any TD–14% TD chance14% / 12%0under
2024 W16Rec yds10.56.942% / 49%12over
2024 W15Any TD–13% TD chance13% / 12%0under
2024 W15Rec yds8.55.342% / 49%8under
2024 W15Rec1.5129% / 42%1under
2024 W14Any TD–15% TD chance15% / 10%0under
2024 W14Rec yds7.54.442% / 50%13over
2024 W14Rec1.5126% / 37%2over
2024 W13Any TD–13% TD chance13% / 8%0under
2024 W11Any TD–15% TD chance15% / 10%0under
2024 W11Rec yds5.53.644% / 51%9over
2024 W11Rec1.5126% / 33%1under
2024 W10Any TD–12% TD chance12% / 13%0under
2024 W10Rec yds12.56.135% / 50%0under
2024 W10Rec1.5135% / 53%0under
2024 W9Any TD–14% TD chance14% / 8%1over
2024 W8Any TD–12% TD chance12% / 8%0under
2024 W7Any TD–10% TD chance10% / 6%0under
2024 W6Any TD–13% TD chance13% / 10%0under
2024 W5Any TD–12% TD chance12% / 7%0under
2024 W4Any TD–14% TD chance14% / 7%0under
2024 W3Any TD–18% TD chance18% / 11%0under
2024 W3Rec yds6.51364% / 50%0under
2024 W3Rec1.5149% / 33%0under
2024 W2Any TD–17% TD chance17% / 9%0under
2024 W1Any TD–21% TD chance21% / 9%0under
2023 W18Any TD–13% TD chance13% / 13%0under
2023 W18Rec yds11.59.345% / 50%7under
2023 W18Rec1.5146% / 51%2over
2023 W17Any TD–12% TD chance12% / 10%0under
2023 W16Any TD–14% TD chance14% / 13%0under
2023 W16Rec yds8.55.843% / 49%38over
2023 W16Rec1.5135% / 39%3over
2023 W15Any TD–14% TD chance14% / 11%0under
2023 W14Any TD–8% TD chance8% / 11%0under
2023 W13Any TD–3% TD chance3% / 6%0under
2023 W12Any TD–4% TD chance4% / 7%1over
2023 W11Any TD–6% TD chance6% / 8%0under
2023 W11Rec yds3.53.851% / 56%19over
2023 W11Rec0.5161% / 59%2over
2023 W10Any TD–7% TD chance7% / 9%0under
2023 W9Any TD–3% TD chance3% / 7%1over
2023 W8Any TD–2% TD chance2% / 6%0under
2023 W6Any TD–2% TD chance2% / 7%0under
2023 W5Any TD–3% TD chance3% / 9%0under
2023 W4Any TD–3% TD chance3% / 6%0under
2023 W3Any TD–8% TD chance8% / 13%0under
2023 W3Rec yds13.5011% / 50%7under
2023 W3Rec yds13.5011% / 50%7under
2023 W3Rec1.507% / 55%1under
2023 W3Rec1.507% / 56%1under
2023 W2Any TD–5% TD chance5% / 6%0under
2023 W1Any TD––– / 9%0under

Our calls

  • 2026 W4 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
  • 2026 W4 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
  • 2026 W3 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
  • 2026 W3 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
  • 2026 W2 Under 8.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
  • 2026 W1 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
  • 2025 W17 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W17 Under 4.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W17 Over 5.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
  • 2025 W17 Under 5.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W17 Under 0.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W16 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W15 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W13 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W12 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W9 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W8 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W7 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W7 Over 6.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W7 Under 6.5 rec yds (Short week, backtest) ✅
  • 2025 W7 Over 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W6 Over 0.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2025 W5 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W4 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W3 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2025 W2 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W1 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2024 W18 Under 5.5 rec yds (Freezing, backtest) ❌
  • 2024 W16 Under 10.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2024 W15 Under 8.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2024 W15 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2024 W14 Under 7.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2024 W14 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2024 W11 Under 5.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2024 W11 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2024 W10 Under 12.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2024 W10 Under 12.5 rec yds (Short week, backtest) ✅
  • 2024 W10 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2024 W9 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2024 W5 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2024 W4 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2024 W3 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2024 W3 Over 6.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2024 W3 Over 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2024 W2 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2024 W1 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2023 W18 Under 11.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2023 W18 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2023 W16 Over 8.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
  • 2023 W16 Under 8.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2023 W11 Under 3.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2023 W11 Under 3.5 rec yds (Short week, backtest) ❌
  • 2023 W3 Under 13.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2023 W3 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅

For information and entertainment only; not betting advice. Lines are a pregame consensus of US sportsbooks via The Odds API and change quickly. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

How this works

Lines are the median across US books about an hour before kickoff. Projections are rolling-origin: made only from data before that week. Players who did not play are void.

Sources: The Odds API (US sportsbooks), nflverseFull methodology