TE · HOU · 108 lines since 2023
Foster Moreau Player Props
Closing consensus lines for Foster Moreau, what he did, and what our model projected before the game.
2026 Week 5
- Anytime TD priced at 10% — we make it 13%
Over/under record by market
- Receiving yards over 19, under 12 (31 graded)
- Receptions over 11, under 15 (26 graded)
- Anytime TD over 7, under 40 (47 graded)
- Longest reception over 1, under 2 (3 graded)
Our calls on him: model 18–24 · Dome team outdoors 2–8 · Pre-snap motion 1–1 · Starters out on defense 4–1 · Middle of the field 0–2 · Short week 0–3
Line vs actual vs our projection
| Week | Market | Line | We projected | P(over) us / market | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 W5 | Any TD | – | 13% TD chance | 13% / 10% | – | … |
| 2026 W4 | Any TD | – | 13% TD chance | 13% / 12% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W4 | Rec yds | 6.5 | 7.7 | 53% / 51% | 1 | under |
| 2026 W4 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 37% / 35% | 1 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Any TD | – | 7% TD chance | 7% / 10% | 1 | over |
| 2026 W2 | Any TD | – | 10% TD chance | 10% / 11% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Rec yds | 7.5 | 4.8 | 43% / 49% | 34 | over |
| 2026 W2 | Rec | 0.5 | 1 | 63% / 66% | 2 | over |
| 2026 W1 | Any TD | – | 5% TD chance | 5% / 9% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Any TD | – | 11% TD chance | 11% / 11% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Any TD | – | 9% TD chance | 9% / 9% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Any TD | – | 8% TD chance | 8% / 9% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Long rec | 3.5 | 5.1 | 56% / 50% | 16 | over |
| 2025 W14 | Rec yds | 3.5 | 6.1 | 57% / 50% | 16 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Any TD | – | 10% TD chance | 10% / 10% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Rec yds | 2.5 | 4.9 | 56% / 49% | 13 | over |
| 2025 W12 | Any TD | – | 12% TD chance | 12% / 10% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Long rec | 5.5 | 5.9 | 51% / 51% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Rec yds | 6.5 | 6.8 | 51% / 48% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Rec | 0.5 | 1 | 68% / 63% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Any TD | – | 6% TD chance | 6% / 9% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Any TD | – | 6% TD chance | 6% / 7% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W8 | Any TD | – | 9% TD chance | 9% / 12% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Any TD | – | 7% TD chance | 7% / 12% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Long rec | 3.5 | 5.4 | 57% / 51% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Rec yds | 3.5 | 6.3 | 57% / 51% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Any TD | – | 11% TD chance | 11% / 17% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Any TD | – | 11% TD chance | 11% / 8% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W18 | Any TD | – | 18% TD chance | 18% / 17% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W18 | Rec yds | 24.5 | 16 | 36% / 49% | 31 | over |
| 2024 W18 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 42% / 45% | 4 | over |
| 2024 W17 | Any TD | – | 20% TD chance | 20% / 12% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W17 | Rec yds | 19.5 | 13 | 38% / 50% | 47 | over |
| 2024 W17 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 31% / 40% | 3 | over |
| 2024 W16 | Any TD | – | 18% TD chance | 18% / 15% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W16 | Rec yds | 24.5 | 15 | 31% / 52% | 33 | over |
| 2024 W16 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 39% / 47% | 2 | under |
| 2024 W15 | Any TD | – | 17% TD chance | 17% / 15% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W15 | Rec yds | 17.5 | 9.9 | 35% / 49% | 39 | over |
| 2024 W15 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 46% / 57% | 4 | over |
| 2024 W14 | Any TD | – | 24% TD chance | 24% / 15% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W14 | Rec yds | 19.5 | 14 | 39% / 50% | 40 | over |
| 2024 W14 | Rec | 2.5 | 1 | 26% / 39% | 2 | under |
| 2024 W13 | Any TD | – | 21% TD chance | 21% / 18% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W13 | Rec yds | 17.5 | 13 | 42% / 50% | 6 | under |
| 2024 W13 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 47% / 59% | 2 | over |
| 2024 W11 | Any TD | – | 22% TD chance | 22% / 13% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W11 | Rec yds | 12.5 | 7.5 | 38% / 50% | 50 | over |
| 2024 W11 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 35% / 47% | 3 | over |
| 2024 W10 | Any TD | – | 25% TD chance | 25% / 14% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W10 | Rec yds | 15.5 | 12 | 43% / 51% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W10 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 49% / 56% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W9 | Any TD | – | 22% TD chance | 22% / 15% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W9 | Rec yds | 12.5 | 9.3 | 43% / 49% | 17 | over |
| 2024 W9 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 38% / 42% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W8 | Any TD | – | 9% TD chance | 9% / 9% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W8 | Rec yds | 8.5 | 7.6 | 47% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W8 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 39% / 37% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W7 | Any TD | – | 9% TD chance | 9% / 13% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W7 | Rec yds | 10.5 | 8.1 | 44% / 50% | 38 | over |
| 2024 W7 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 43% / 45% | 2 | over |
| 2024 W6 | Any TD | – | 14% TD chance | 14% / 11% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W6 | Rec yds | 8.5 | 8.4 | 50% / 51% | 54 | over |
| 2024 W6 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 43% / 38% | 2 | over |
| 2024 W5 | Any TD | – | 11% TD chance | 11% / 13% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W5 | Rec yds | 9.5 | 6.2 | 40% / 49% | 13 | over |
| 2024 W5 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 34% / 41% | 2 | over |
| 2024 W4 | Any TD | – | 16% TD chance | 16% / 13% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W4 | Rec yds | 13.5 | 9.3 | 40% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W4 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 46% / 54% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W3 | Any TD | – | 19% TD chance | 19% / 21% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W3 | Rec yds | 15.5 | 10 | 39% / 50% | 2 | under |
| 2024 W3 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 44% / 57% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W2 | Any TD | – | 16% TD chance | 16% / 13% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W2 | Rec yds | 10.5 | 9.8 | 48% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W2 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 47% / 47% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W1 | Any TD | – | 8% TD chance | 8% / 8% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W1 | Rec yds | 6.5 | 4.0 | 44% / 48% | 43 | over |
| 2023 W18 | Any TD | – | 12% TD chance | 12% / 13% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W17 | Any TD | – | 8% TD chance | 8% / 8% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W17 | Rec yds | 10.5 | 7.4 | 43% / 49% | 13 | over |
| 2023 W17 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 38% / 40% | 1 | under |
| 2023 W16 | Any TD | – | 9% TD chance | 9% / 11% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W16 | Rec yds | 7.5 | 8.7 | 53% / 52% | 13 | over |
| 2023 W16 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 42% / 38% | 1 | under |
| 2023 W15 | Any TD | – | 8% TD chance | 8% / 8% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W15 | Rec yds | 7.5 | 6.0 | 46% / 50% | 13 | over |
| 2023 W14 | Any TD | – | 8% TD chance | 8% / 12% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W13 | Any TD | – | 8% TD chance | 8% / 8% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W12 | Any TD | – | 8% TD chance | 8% / 9% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W10 | Any TD | – | 8% TD chance | 8% / 8% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W10 | Rec yds | 3.5 | 5.6 | 56% / 56% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W10 | Rec | 0.5 | 1 | 66% / 56% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W9 | Any TD | – | 9% TD chance | 9% / 9% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W8 | Any TD | – | 11% TD chance | 11% / 14% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W7 | Any TD | – | 11% TD chance | 11% / 13% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W7 | Rec yds | 9.5 | 10 | 52% / 52% | 33 | over |
| 2023 W7 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 52% / 46% | 3 | over |
| 2023 W6 | Any TD | – | 13% TD chance | 13% / 10% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W6 | Rec yds | 11.5 | 5.5 | 34% / 50% | 33 | over |
| 2023 W6 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 32% / 44% | 4 | over |
| 2023 W5 | Any TD | – | 10% TD chance | 10% / 18% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W5 | Rec yds | 16.5 | 5.2 | 22% / 49% | 6 | under |
| 2023 W5 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 33% / 56% | 1 | under |
| 2023 W2 | Any TD | – | 4% TD chance | 4% / 7% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W1 | Any TD | – | – | – / 9% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W1 | Rec yds | 6.5 | – | – / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W1 | Rec | 0.5 | – | – / 62% | 0 | under |
Our calls
- 2026 W2 Under 7.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2025 W14 Over 3.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W14 Under 3.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W14 Over 3.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W13 Under 2.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Over 2.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W13 Over 2.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W7 Over 3.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W7 Over 3.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W7 Under 3.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W7 Over 3.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W7 Over 3.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W18 Under 24.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W18 Under 24.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W17 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W17 Under 19.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W17 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W16 Over 24.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W16 Under 24.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W16 Under 24.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W16 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W15 Under 17.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W15 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W14 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W14 Over 19.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W14 Under 19.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W14 Under 19.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W14 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W13 Under 17.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W13 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W11 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W11 Under 12.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W11 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W10 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W10 Under 15.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W10 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W9 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W9 Under 12.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W9 Under 12.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W7 Under 10.5 rec yds (Middle of the field, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W7 Under 10.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W7 Under 10.5 rec yds (Short week, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W6 Over 8.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W6 Over 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W5 Under 9.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W5 Under 9.5 rec yds (Middle of the field, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W5 Under 9.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W5 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W4 Under 13.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W4 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W3 Under 15.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W3 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2023 W17 Over 10.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
- 2023 W17 Under 10.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ❌
- 2023 W17 Under 10.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2023 W16 Under 7.5 rec yds (Short week, backtest) ❌
- 2023 W10 Over 0.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2023 W7 Under 9.5 rec yds (Short week, backtest) ❌
- 2023 W7 Over 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2023 W6 Under 11.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
For information and entertainment only; not betting advice. Lines are a pregame consensus of US sportsbooks via The Odds API and change quickly. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
How this works
Lines are the median across US books about an hour before kickoff. Projections are rolling-origin: made only from data before that week. Players who did not play are void.
Sources: The Odds API (US sportsbooks), nflverseFull methodology