QB · NYJ · 253 lines since 2023
Geno Smith Player Props
Closing consensus lines for Geno Smith, what he did, and what our model projected before the game.
2026 Week 5
- Anytime TD priced at 11% — we make it 11%
- Line 30.5 pass attempts — we project 29 (P(over) 43%)
- Line 19.5 completions — we project 19 (P(over) 46%)
- Line 1.5 pass TDs — we project 1 (P(over) 41%)
- Line 195.5 pass yds — we project 193 (P(over) 49%)
- Line 10.5 rush yds — we project 9.3 (P(over) 46%)
Over/under record by market
- Passing yards over 23, under 28 (51 graded)
- Passing TDs over 18, under 33 (51 graded)
- Rushing yards over 22, under 29 (51 graded)
- Anytime TD over 3, under 48 (51 graded)
- Pass attempts over 6, under 9 (15 graded)
- Completions over 7, under 8 (15 graded)
- Rush attempts over 5, under 8 (13 graded)
Our calls on him: Low total (40.5 or less) 8–7 · Starters out on defense 3–10 · Man coverage 1–3 · model 63–53 · High total (48.5+) 5–2 · Big underdog (6.5+) 2–10 · Pressure 4–5 · Dome team outdoors 2–2 · Short week 3–1 · Wind 15+ mph 0–1
Line vs actual vs our projection
| Week | Market | Line | We projected | P(over) us / market | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 W5 | Any TD | – | 11% TD chance | 11% / 11% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Pass att | 30.5 | 29 | 43% / 51% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Cmp | 19.5 | 19 | 46% / 50% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 41% / 36% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Pass yds | 195.5 | 193 | 49% / 50% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rush yds | 10.5 | 9.3 | 46% / 50% | – | … |
| 2026 W4 | Any TD | – | 12% TD chance | 12% / 10% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W4 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 36% / 38% | 1 | under |
| 2026 W4 | Pass yds | 227.5 | 196 | 34% / 50% | 119 | under |
| 2026 W4 | Rush yds | 10.5 | 10 | 49% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Any TD | – | 13% TD chance | 13% / 11% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 33% / 40% | 3 | over |
| 2026 W3 | Pass yds | 227.5 | 216 | 44% / 50% | 321 | over |
| 2026 W3 | Rush yds | 11.5 | 11 | 49% / 50% | 12 | over |
| 2026 W2 | Any TD | – | 6% TD chance | 6% / 12% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 30% / 36% | 1 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Pass yds | 207.5 | 181 | 39% / 50% | 247 | over |
| 2026 W2 | Rush yds | 7.5 | 6.8 | 47% / 50% | 17 | over |
| 2026 W1 | Any TD | – | 4% TD chance | 4% / 8% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Pass TDs | 0.5 | 1 | 65% / 67% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Pass yds | 210.5 | 184 | 36% / 50% | 215 | over |
| 2026 W1 | Rush yds | 6.5 | 3.0 | 34% / 50% | 7 | over |
| 2025 W17 | Any TD | – | 9% TD chance | 9% / 9% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Pass att | 29.5 | 30 | 54% / 50% | 28 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Cmp | 19.5 | 20 | 55% / 48% | 20 | over |
| 2025 W17 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 33% / 34% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Pass yds | 196.5 | 190 | 47% / 49% | 176 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Rush att | 2.5 | 3 | 57% / 50% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Rush yds | 8.5 | 7.0 | 45% / 50% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Any TD | – | 4% TD chance | 4% / 5% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Pass att | 31.5 | 32 | 54% / 49% | 23 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Cmp | 19.5 | 21 | 64% / 50% | 16 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Pass TDs | 0.5 | 0 | 47% / 58% | 2 | over |
| 2025 W16 | Pass yds | 183.5 | 154 | 31% / 49% | 201 | over |
| 2025 W16 | Rush att | 2.5 | 3 | 54% / 56% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Rush yds | 8.5 | 4.7 | 33% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Any TD | – | 7% TD chance | 7% / 7% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Pass att | 32.5 | 34 | 57% / 50% | 21 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Cmp | 21.5 | 23 | 59% / 47% | 13 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Pass TDs | 0.5 | 1 | 61% / 66% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W14 | Pass yds | 205.5 | 188 | 40% / 50% | 116 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Rush att | 2.5 | 3 | 64% / 50% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Rush yds | 8.5 | 7.4 | 45% / 51% | 4 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Any TD | – | 7% TD chance | 7% / 6% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Pass att | 32.5 | 33 | 53% / 50% | 23 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Cmp | 21.5 | 22 | 53% / 49% | 18 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Pass TDs | 0.5 | 1 | 57% / 66% | 2 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Pass yds | 206.5 | 178 | 34% / 50% | 165 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Rush att | 2.5 | 3 | 62% / 38% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Rush yds | 8.5 | 6.8 | 44% / 50% | -6 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Any TD | – | 10% TD chance | 10% / 8% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Pass att | 28.5 | 31 | 63% / 51% | 44 | over |
| 2025 W12 | Cmp | 18.5 | 21 | 64% / 51% | 30 | over |
| 2025 W12 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 37% / 39% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Pass yds | 193.5 | 192 | 49% / 50% | 285 | over |
| 2025 W12 | Rush att | 3.5 | 4 | 55% / 41% | 3 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Rush yds | 9.5 | 10 | 53% / 50% | 8 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Any TD | – | 10% TD chance | 10% / 11% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Pass att | 32.5 | 32 | 48% / 49% | 42 | over |
| 2025 W11 | Cmp | 22.5 | 22 | 44% / 47% | 27 | over |
| 2025 W11 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 42% / 50% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Pass yds | 234.5 | 228 | 47% / 51% | 238 | over |
| 2025 W11 | Rush att | 2.5 | 3 | 70% / 62% | 4 | over |
| 2025 W11 | Rush yds | 8.5 | 11 | 58% / 50% | 14 | over |
| 2025 W10 | Any TD | – | 7% TD chance | 7% / 7% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Pass att | 32.5 | 32 | 49% / 50% | 26 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Cmp | 20.5 | 22 | 57% / 54% | 16 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Pass TDs | 0.5 | 1 | 66% / 67% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Pass yds | 214.5 | 183 | 34% / 50% | 143 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Rush att | 2.5 | 3 | 65% / 61% | 3 | over |
| 2025 W10 | Rush yds | 10.5 | 7.7 | 40% / 50% | 7 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Any TD | – | 10% TD chance | 10% / 9% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Pass att | 31.5 | 32 | 55% / 48% | 39 | over |
| 2025 W9 | Cmp | 21.5 | 22 | 50% / 48% | 29 | over |
| 2025 W9 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 36% / 44% | 4 | over |
| 2025 W9 | Pass yds | 223.5 | 213 | 46% / 50% | 284 | over |
| 2025 W9 | Rush yds | 9.5 | 9.9 | 51% / 50% | 9 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Any TD | – | 7% TD chance | 7% / 8% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Pass att | 32.5 | 31 | 41% / 48% | 16 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Cmp | 21.5 | 21 | 44% / 47% | 10 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Pass TDs | 0.5 | 1 | 56% / 63% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Pass yds | 203.5 | 172 | 34% / 50% | 67 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Rush att | 2.5 | 3 | 60% / 51% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Rush yds | 10.5 | 8.1 | 42% / 52% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Any TD | – | 11% TD chance | 11% / 11% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Pass att | 30.5 | 31 | 55% / 50% | 23 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Cmp | 20.5 | 21 | 51% / 49% | 17 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 43% / 45% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Pass yds | 216.5 | 214 | 49% / 49% | 174 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Rush att | 2.5 | 3 | 70% / 59% | 4 | over |
| 2025 W6 | Rush yds | 9.5 | 13 | 61% / 51% | -3 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Any TD | – | 8% TD chance | 8% / 11% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Pass att | 32.5 | 33 | 51% / 51% | 36 | over |
| 2025 W5 | Cmp | 21.5 | 22 | 51% / 49% | 25 | over |
| 2025 W5 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 35% / 41% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Pass yds | 231.5 | 214 | 41% / 50% | 228 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Rush yds | 10.5 | 11 | 52% / 50% | 8 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Any TD | – | 12% TD chance | 12% / 13% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Pass att | 33.5 | 33 | 48% / 50% | 21 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Cmp | 22.5 | 22 | 46% / 49% | 14 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 47% / 53% | 2 | over |
| 2025 W4 | Pass yds | 254.5 | 241 | 44% / 50% | 117 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Rush att | 2.5 | 3 | 65% / 53% | 4 | over |
| 2025 W4 | Rush yds | 9.5 | 12 | 58% / 50% | 31 | over |
| 2025 W3 | Any TD | – | 13% TD chance | 13% / 12% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Pass att | 35.5 | 34 | 42% / 50% | 29 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Cmp | 23.5 | 23 | 44% / 50% | 19 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 37% / 43% | 3 | over |
| 2025 W3 | Pass yds | 242.5 | 225 | 42% / 50% | 289 | over |
| 2025 W3 | Rush att | 3.5 | 4 | 51% / 43% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Rush yds | 12.5 | 13 | 52% / 50% | 5 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Any TD | – | 12% TD chance | 12% / 13% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Pass att | 33.5 | 35 | 55% / 52% | 43 | over |
| 2025 W2 | Cmp | 23.5 | 23 | 48% / 49% | 24 | over |
| 2025 W2 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 41% / 46% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Pass yds | 247.5 | 242 | 47% / 50% | 180 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Rush att | 2.5 | 3 | 58% / 49% | 5 | over |
| 2025 W2 | Rush yds | 10.5 | 11 | 50% / 50% | 20 | over |
| 2025 W1 | Any TD | – | 16% TD chance | 16% / 13% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Pass att | 33.5 | 33 | 48% / 46% | 34 | over |
| 2025 W1 | Cmp | 21.5 | 22 | 56% / 50% | 24 | over |
| 2025 W1 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 39% / 40% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Pass yds | 230.5 | 226 | 48% / 50% | 362 | over |
| 2025 W1 | Rush att | 2.5 | 3 | 68% / 50% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Rush yds | 8.5 | 14 | 64% / 54% | 10 | over |
| 2024 W18 | Any TD | – | 14% TD chance | 14% / 15% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W18 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 40% / 51% | 4 | over |
| 2024 W18 | Pass yds | 246.5 | 237 | 46% / 51% | 223 | under |
| 2024 W18 | Rush yds | 7.5 | 13 | 65% / 50% | 14 | over |
| 2024 W17 | Any TD | – | 16% TD chance | 16% / 15% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W17 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 42% / 45% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W17 | Pass yds | 252.5 | 238 | 44% / 50% | 160 | under |
| 2024 W17 | Rush yds | 5.5 | 12 | 71% / 50% | 19 | over |
| 2024 W16 | Any TD | – | 15% TD chance | 15% / 14% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W16 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 34% / 41% | 3 | over |
| 2024 W16 | Pass yds | 237.5 | 229 | 45% / 50% | 314 | over |
| 2024 W16 | Rush yds | 8.5 | 10 | 56% / 51% | 8 | under |
| 2024 W15 | Any TD | – | 16% TD chance | 16% / 17% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W15 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 37% / 46% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W15 | Pass yds | 247.5 | 241 | 47% / 50% | 149 | under |
| 2024 W15 | Rush yds | 10.5 | 13 | 56% / 50% | 5 | under |
| 2024 W14 | Any TD | – | 16% TD chance | 16% / 17% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W14 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 36% / 46% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W14 | Pass yds | 253.5 | 227 | 39% / 52% | 233 | under |
| 2024 W14 | Rush yds | 12.5 | 13 | 51% / 51% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W13 | Any TD | – | 13% TD chance | 13% / 14% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W13 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 32% / 42% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W13 | Pass yds | 234.5 | 213 | 40% / 50% | 206 | under |
| 2024 W13 | Rush yds | 12.5 | 16 | 59% / 50% | 2 | under |
| 2024 W12 | Any TD | – | 17% TD chance | 17% / 18% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W12 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 39% / 51% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W12 | Pass yds | 254.5 | 240 | 44% / 51% | 254 | under |
| 2024 W12 | Rush yds | 14.5 | 18 | 58% / 50% | 2 | under |
| 2024 W11 | Any TD | – | 15% TD chance | 15% / 17% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W11 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 36% / 46% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W11 | Pass yds | 246.5 | 241 | 48% / 50% | 221 | under |
| 2024 W11 | Rush yds | 13.5 | 14 | 51% / 48% | 29 | over |
| 2024 W9 | Any TD | – | 17% TD chance | 17% / 15% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W9 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 38% / 47% | 3 | over |
| 2024 W9 | Pass yds | 249.5 | 241 | 47% / 50% | 363 | over |
| 2024 W9 | Rush yds | 12.5 | 17 | 61% / 51% | 16 | over |
| 2024 W8 | Any TD | – | 15% TD chance | 15% / 15% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W8 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 38% / 44% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W8 | Pass yds | 242.5 | 243 | 50% / 50% | 212 | under |
| 2024 W8 | Rush yds | 13.5 | 14 | 53% / 50% | 16 | over |
| 2024 W7 | Any TD | – | 19% TD chance | 19% / 18% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W7 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 42% / 53% | 2 | over |
| 2024 W7 | Pass yds | 272.5 | 265 | 47% / 50% | 207 | under |
| 2024 W7 | Rush yds | 11.5 | 19 | 68% / 50% | 15 | over |
| 2024 W6 | Any TD | – | 16% TD chance | 16% / 16% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W6 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 38% / 46% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W6 | Pass yds | 249.5 | 252 | 51% / 50% | 312 | over |
| 2024 W6 | Rush yds | 13.5 | 17 | 58% / 51% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W5 | Any TD | – | 17% TD chance | 17% / 17% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W5 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 41% / 50% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W5 | Pass yds | 253.5 | 252 | 49% / 50% | 284 | over |
| 2024 W5 | Rush yds | 9.5 | 15 | 66% / 50% | 72 | over |
| 2024 W4 | Any TD | – | 13% TD chance | 13% / 14% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W4 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 34% / 45% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W4 | Pass yds | 250.5 | 229 | 42% / 51% | 395 | over |
| 2024 W4 | Rush yds | 9.5 | 10 | 52% / 50% | 38 | over |
| 2024 W3 | Any TD | – | 14% TD chance | 14% / 17% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W3 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 38% / 48% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W3 | Pass yds | 234.5 | 219 | 43% / 50% | 289 | over |
| 2024 W3 | Rush yds | 6.5 | 14 | 72% / 49% | -2 | under |
| 2024 W2 | Any TD | – | 14% TD chance | 14% / 14% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W2 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 42% / 41% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W2 | Pass yds | 226.5 | 209 | 41% / 50% | 327 | over |
| 2024 W2 | Rush yds | 11.5 | 13 | 54% / 49% | 8 | under |
| 2024 W1 | Any TD | – | 12% TD chance | 12% / 17% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W1 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 47% / 49% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W1 | Pass yds | 240.5 | 245 | 52% / 50% | 171 | under |
| 2024 W1 | Rush yds | 10.5 | 12 | 55% / 49% | 30 | over |
| 2023 W18 | Any TD | – | 12% TD chance | 12% / 14% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W18 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 47% / 54% | 2 | over |
| 2023 W18 | Pass yds | 260.5 | 240 | 41% / 50% | 189 | under |
| 2023 W18 | Rush yds | 10.5 | 10 | 48% / 49% | 28 | over |
| 2023 W17 | Any TD | – | 11% TD chance | 11% / 14% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W17 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 47% / 48% | 1 | under |
| 2023 W17 | Pass yds | 240.5 | 234 | 48% / 50% | 290 | over |
| 2023 W17 | Rush yds | 5.5 | 7.1 | 56% / 51% | 33 | over |
| 2023 W16 | Any TD | – | 12% TD chance | 12% / 14% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W16 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 45% / 44% | 2 | over |
| 2023 W16 | Pass yds | 238.5 | 238 | 50% / 50% | 227 | under |
| 2023 W16 | Rush yds | 6.5 | 8.3 | 56% / 50% | 2 | under |
| 2023 W13 | Any TD | – | 8% TD chance | 8% / 12% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W13 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 30% / 37% | 3 | over |
| 2023 W13 | Pass yds | 232.5 | 212 | 39% / 48% | 334 | over |
| 2023 W13 | Rush yds | 9.5 | 6.7 | 40% / 51% | 6 | under |
| 2023 W12 | Any TD | – | 9% TD chance | 9% / 11% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W12 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 34% / 37% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W12 | Pass yds | 233.5 | 230 | 48% / 50% | 180 | under |
| 2023 W12 | Rush yds | 6.5 | 5.2 | 45% / 49% | 21 | over |
| 2023 W11 | Any TD | – | 9% TD chance | 9% / 13% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W11 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 35% / 51% | 1 | under |
| 2023 W11 | Pass yds | 256.5 | 229 | 39% / 50% | 233 | under |
| 2023 W11 | Rush yds | 6.5 | 7.7 | 56% / 51% | -1 | under |
| 2023 W10 | Any TD | – | 13% TD chance | 13% / 16% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W10 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 44% / 50% | 2 | over |
| 2023 W10 | Pass yds | 261.5 | 263 | 50% / 49% | 369 | over |
| 2023 W10 | Rush yds | 10.5 | 8.0 | 42% / 49% | 13 | over |
| 2023 W9 | Any TD | – | 10% TD chance | 10% / 12% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W9 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 37% / 36% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W9 | Pass yds | 232.5 | 231 | 49% / 49% | 157 | under |
| 2023 W9 | Rush yds | 8.5 | 7.1 | 45% / 51% | 4 | under |
| 2023 W8 | Any TD | – | 10% TD chance | 10% / 14% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W8 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 32% / 40% | 2 | over |
| 2023 W8 | Pass yds | 220.5 | 205 | 42% / 49% | 254 | over |
| 2023 W8 | Rush yds | 10.5 | 9 | 45% / 50% | -3 | under |
| 2023 W7 | Any TD | – | 11% TD chance | 11% / 17% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W7 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 39% / 54% | 2 | over |
| 2023 W7 | Pass yds | 246.5 | 248 | 51% / 50% | 219 | under |
| 2023 W7 | Rush yds | 14.5 | 9.6 | 35% / 50% | 10 | under |
| 2023 W6 | Any TD | – | 10% TD chance | 10% / 12% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W6 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 35% / 45% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W6 | Pass yds | 238.5 | 218 | 41% / 50% | 326 | over |
| 2023 W6 | Rush yds | 10.5 | 6.9 | 38% / 50% | 20 | over |
| 2023 W4 | Any TD | – | 10% TD chance | 10% / 16% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W4 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 35% / 53% | 1 | under |
| 2023 W4 | Pass yds | 256.5 | 245 | 46% / 50% | 110 | under |
| 2023 W4 | Rush yds | 12.5 | 9.9 | 43% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W3 | Any TD | – | 12% TD chance | 12% / 16% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W3 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 37% / 52% | 1 | under |
| 2023 W3 | Pass yds | 250.5 | 230 | 41% / 47% | 296 | over |
| 2023 W3 | Rush yds | 15.5 | 12 | 41% / 51% | -4 | under |
| 2023 W2 | Any TD | – | 10% TD chance | 10% / 13% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W2 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 34% / 52% | 2 | over |
| 2023 W2 | Pass yds | 264.5 | 200 | 22% / 50% | 328 | over |
| 2023 W2 | Rush yds | 12.5 | 11 | 45% / 54% | 20 | over |
| 2023 W1 | Any TD | – | – | – / 16% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W1 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | – | – / 56% | 1 | under |
| 2023 W1 | Pass yds | 253.5 | – | – / 51% | 112 | under |
| 2023 W1 | Rush yds | 13.5 | – | – / 51% | 6 | under |
Our calls
- 2026 W5 Under 30.5 pass attempts (Low total (40.5 or less), backtest (after the fact)) …
- 2026 W5 Under 206.5 pass yds (Low total (40.5 or less), backtest (after the fact)) …
- 2026 W4 Over 227.5 pass yds (Starters out on defense, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W4 Over 227.5 pass yds (Man coverage, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W4 Under 227.5 pass yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W3 Under 1.5 pass TDs (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W3 Over 227.5 pass yds (High total (48.5+), backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W3 Over 227.5 pass yds (Man coverage, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W3 Under 227.5 pass yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W2 Under 1.5 pass TDs (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W2 Under 207.5 pass yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W1 Under 210.5 pass yds (Low total (40.5 or less), backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W1 Under 210.5 pass yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W1 Under 6.5 rush yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2025 W17 Under 29.5 pass attempts (Low total (40.5 or less), backtest) ✅
- 2025 W17 Over 19.5 completions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W17 Over 196.5 pass yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W17 Under 196.5 pass yds (Low total (40.5 or less), backtest) ✅
- 2025 W17 Over 2.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W16 Over 31.5 pass attempts (Big underdog (6.5+), backtest) ❌
- 2025 W16 Under 31.5 pass attempts (Low total (40.5 or less), backtest) ✅
- 2025 W16 Over 19.5 completions (Big underdog (6.5+), backtest) ❌
- 2025 W16 Over 19.5 completions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W16 Under 0.5 pass TDs (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W16 Under 183.5 pass yds (Low total (40.5 or less), backtest) ❌
- 2025 W16 Under 183.5 pass yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W16 Under 8.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W14 Over 32.5 pass attempts (Big underdog (6.5+), backtest) ❌
- 2025 W14 Under 32.5 pass attempts (Low total (40.5 or less), backtest) ✅
- 2025 W14 Over 32.5 pass attempts (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W14 Over 21.5 completions (Big underdog (6.5+), backtest) ❌
- 2025 W14 Over 21.5 completions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W14 Under 21.5 completions (Pressure, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W14 Under 205.5 pass yds (Low total (40.5 or less), backtest) ✅
- 2025 W14 Over 205.5 pass yds (Man coverage, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W14 Under 205.5 pass yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W14 Under 205.5 pass yds (Pressure, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W14 Over 2.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W14 Under 8.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W13 Over 32.5 pass attempts (Big underdog (6.5+), backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Under 32.5 pass attempts (Low total (40.5 or less), backtest) ✅
- 2025 W13 Over 21.5 completions (Big underdog (6.5+), backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Under 0.5 pass TDs (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Under 206.5 pass yds (Low total (40.5 or less), backtest) ✅
- 2025 W13 Under 206.5 pass yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W13 Over 2.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Under 8.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W12 Under 28.5 pass attempts (Low total (40.5 or less), backtest) ❌
- 2025 W12 Over 28.5 pass attempts (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W12 Over 18.5 completions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W12 Under 18.5 completions (Pressure, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W12 Under 193.5 pass yds (Low total (40.5 or less), backtest) ❌
- 2025 W12 Under 193.5 pass yds (Pressure, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W12 Over 3.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W11 Over 32.5 pass attempts (High total (48.5+), backtest) ✅
- 2025 W11 Under 1.5 pass TDs (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W11 Over 234.5 pass yds (High total (48.5+), backtest) ✅
- 2025 W11 Over 2.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W11 Over 8.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W10 Over 32.5 pass attempts (Big underdog (6.5+), backtest) ❌
For information and entertainment only; not betting advice. Lines are a pregame consensus of US sportsbooks via The Odds API and change quickly. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
How this works
Lines are the median across US books about an hour before kickoff. Projections are rolling-origin: made only from data before that week. Players who did not play are void.
Sources: The Odds API (US sportsbooks), nflverseFull methodology