WR · BUF · 111 lines since 2023
Greg Dortch Player Props
Closing consensus lines for Greg Dortch, what he did, and what our model projected before the game.
2026 Week 5
- Anytime TD priced at 13% — we make it 4%
Over/under record by market
- Rushing yards over 0, under 2 (2 graded)
- Receiving yards over 12, under 15 (27 graded)
- Receptions over 12, under 14 (26 graded)
- Anytime TD over 8, under 37 (45 graded)
- Longest reception over 4, under 2 (6 graded)
Our calls on him: Starters out on defense 2–2 · Dome team outdoors 5–5 · model 13–33 · Short week 0–1 · Middle of the field 1–0 · Missed tackles 1–0 · Wind 15+ mph 0–1
Line vs actual vs our projection
| Week | Market | Line | We projected | P(over) us / market | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 W5 | Any TD | – | 4% TD chance | 4% / 13% | – | … |
| 2026 W4 | Any TD | – | 6% TD chance | 6% / 5% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Any TD | – | 9% TD chance | 9% / 5% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Any TD | – | 8% TD chance | 8% / 7% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Any TD | – | 9% TD chance | 9% / 8% | – | void |
| 2025 W13 | Any TD | – | 14% TD chance | 14% / 15% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Long rec | 12.5 | 13 | 50% / 48% | 11 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Rec yds | 18.5 | 20 | 52% / 49% | 14 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 46% / 45% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Any TD | – | 19% TD chance | 19% / 22% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W12 | Long rec | 14.5 | 11 | 38% / 49% | 39 | over |
| 2025 W12 | Rec yds | 28.5 | 17 | 29% / 50% | 53 | over |
| 2025 W12 | Rec | 3.5 | 2 | 20% / 53% | 6 | over |
| 2025 W11 | Any TD | – | 16% TD chance | 16% / 26% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W11 | Long rec | 14.5 | 9.3 | 33% / 49% | 17 | over |
| 2025 W11 | Rec yds | 28.5 | 12 | 23% / 51% | 66 | over |
| 2025 W11 | Rec | 3.5 | 2 | 13% / 46% | 6 | over |
| 2025 W10 | Any TD | – | 11% TD chance | 11% / 8% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W9 | Any TD | – | 14% TD chance | 14% / 14% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Long rec | 6.5 | 8.4 | 56% / 52% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Rec yds | 6.5 | 11 | 60% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 47% / 36% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Any TD | – | 13% TD chance | 13% / 12% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Any TD | – | 12% TD chance | 12% / 12% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W5 | Any TD | – | 14% TD chance | 14% / 14% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Long rec | 7.5 | 8.5 | 54% / 50% | 8 | over |
| 2025 W5 | Rec yds | 7.5 | 10 | 57% / 51% | 12 | over |
| 2025 W5 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 42% / 41% | 2 | over |
| 2025 W4 | Any TD | – | 9% TD chance | 9% / 15% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Long rec | 10.5 | 8.4 | 42% / 51% | 15 | over |
| 2025 W4 | Rec yds | 15.5 | 10 | 38% / 50% | 35 | over |
| 2025 W4 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 44% / 60% | 4 | over |
| 2025 W3 | Any TD | – | 9% TD chance | 9% / 8% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Any TD | – | 12% TD chance | 12% / 10% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Any TD | – | 17% TD chance | 17% / 11% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Rec yds | 13.5 | 16 | 55% / 50% | -2 | under |
| 2024 W18 | Any TD | – | 12% TD chance | 12% / 20% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W18 | Rec yds | 26.5 | 13 | 27% / 49% | 47 | over |
| 2024 W18 | Rec | 2.5 | 1 | 24% / 57% | 4 | over |
| 2024 W17 | Any TD | – | 9% TD chance | 9% / 12% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W17 | Rec yds | 13.5 | 12 | 46% / 50% | 18 | over |
| 2024 W17 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 45% / 50% | 3 | over |
| 2024 W16 | Any TD | – | 9% TD chance | 9% / 15% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W16 | Rec yds | 9.5 | 15 | 60% / 50% | 19 | over |
| 2024 W16 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 50% / 40% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W15 | Any TD | – | 12% TD chance | 12% / 13% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W14 | Any TD | – | 11% TD chance | 11% / 12% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W14 | Rec yds | 7.5 | 14 | 63% / 50% | 5 | under |
| 2024 W14 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 48% / 35% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W13 | Any TD | – | 10% TD chance | 10% / 12% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W12 | Any TD | – | 10% TD chance | 10% / 11% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W12 | Rec yds | 10.5 | 16 | 59% / 51% | 5 | under |
| 2024 W12 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 52% / 45% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W10 | Any TD | – | 10% TD chance | 10% / 14% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W10 | Rec yds | 12.5 | 15 | 56% / 50% | -1 | under |
| 2024 W10 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 54% / 47% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W9 | Any TD | – | 12% TD chance | 12% / 13% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W9 | Rec yds | 12.5 | 19 | 63% / 51% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W9 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 59% / 47% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W8 | Any TD | – | 12% TD chance | 12% / 17% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W8 | Rec yds | 15.5 | 16 | 52% / 50% | 9 | under |
| 2024 W8 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 58% / 57% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W7 | Any TD | – | 12% TD chance | 12% / 15% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W7 | Rec yds | 23.5 | 21 | 47% / 49% | 5 | under |
| 2024 W7 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 43% / 47% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W7 | Rush yds | 0.5 | 0 | 10% / 13% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W6 | Any TD | – | 9% TD chance | 9% / 17% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W6 | Rec yds | 23.5 | 23 | 49% / 50% | 36 | over |
| 2024 W6 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 46% / 49% | 3 | over |
| 2024 W5 | Any TD | – | 14% TD chance | 14% / 22% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W5 | Rec yds | 31.5 | 24 | 39% / 50% | 7 | under |
| 2024 W5 | Rec | 3.5 | 2 | 31% / 45% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W4 | Any TD | – | 14% TD chance | 14% / 26% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W4 | Rec yds | 40.5 | 31 | 38% / 51% | 38 | under |
| 2024 W4 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 32% / 58% | 4 | over |
| 2024 W4 | Rush yds | 0.5 | 0 | 14% / 17% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W3 | Any TD | – | 11% TD chance | 11% / 23% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W3 | Rec yds | 28.5 | 21 | 39% / 51% | 35 | over |
| 2024 W3 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 37% / 59% | 3 | over |
| 2024 W2 | Any TD | – | 11% TD chance | 11% / 24% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W2 | Rec yds | 32.5 | 24 | 38% / 50% | 11 | under |
| 2024 W2 | Rec | 3.5 | 2 | 24% / 43% | 2 | under |
| 2024 W1 | Any TD | – | 7% TD chance | 7% / 19% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W1 | Rec yds | 26.5 | 17 | 36% / 47% | 47 | over |
| 2024 W1 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 30% / 54% | 6 | over |
| 2023 W18 | Any TD | – | 11% TD chance | 11% / 27% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W18 | Rec yds | 35.5 | 24 | 35% / 50% | 14 | under |
| 2023 W18 | Rec | 3.5 | 2 | 22% / 46% | 2 | under |
| 2023 W17 | Any TD | – | 8% TD chance | 8% / 20% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W17 | Rec yds | 31.5 | 20 | 34% / 50% | 82 | over |
| 2023 W17 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 35% / 60% | 7 | over |
| 2023 W16 | Any TD | – | 7% TD chance | 7% / 20% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W16 | Rec yds | 20.5 | 15 | 40% / 50% | 45 | over |
| 2023 W16 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 51% / 62% | 2 | over |
| 2023 W15 | Any TD | – | 9% TD chance | 9% / 18% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W13 | Any TD | – | 10% TD chance | 10% / 20% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W13 | Rec yds | 32.5 | 17 | 28% / 50% | 19 | under |
| 2023 W13 | Rec | 3.5 | 2 | 16% / 45% | 1 | under |
| 2023 W12 | Any TD | – | 10% TD chance | 10% / 24% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W12 | Rec yds | 31.5 | 11 | 19% / 50% | 27 | under |
| 2023 W12 | Rec | 3.5 | 1 | 8% / 40% | 3 | under |
| 2023 W11 | Any TD | – | 3% TD chance | 3% / 17% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W10 | Any TD | – | 5% TD chance | 5% / 9% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W9 | Any TD | – | 1% TD chance | 1% / 10% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W7 | Any TD | – | 2% TD chance | 2% / 11% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W6 | Any TD | – | 4% TD chance | 4% / 7% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W5 | Any TD | – | 3% TD chance | 3% / 8% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W4 | Any TD | – | – | – / 5% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W3 | Any TD | – | – | – / 8% | – | void |
| 2023 W2 | Any TD | – | – | – / 7% | – | void |
| 2023 W1 | Any TD | – | – | – / 13% | – | void |
Our calls
- 2025 W13 Over 18.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Under 18.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W12 Under 14.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W12 Under 28.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W12 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W11 Under 14.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W11 Under 28.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W11 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W9 Over 6.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W9 Over 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W5 Over 7.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W4 Under 10.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W4 Under 15.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W4 Under 15.5 rec yds (Short week, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W4 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W1 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W18 Over 26.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W18 Under 26.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W18 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W17 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W16 Under 9.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W16 Over 9.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W16 Over 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W14 Over 7.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W14 Over 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W12 Under 10.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W12 Over 10.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W12 Over 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W10 Under 12.5 rec yds (Middle of the field, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W10 Over 12.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W10 Over 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W9 Under 12.5 rec yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W9 Over 12.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W9 Over 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W8 Over 15.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W8 Under 15.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W6 Under 23.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W5 Under 31.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W5 Under 31.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W5 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W4 Under 40.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W4 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W3 Under 28.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W3 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W2 Under 32.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W2 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W1 Under 26.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W1 Under 26.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W1 Under 26.5 rec yds (Wind 15+ mph, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W1 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2023 W18 Under 35.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2023 W18 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2023 W17 Over 31.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
- 2023 W17 Under 31.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ❌
- 2023 W17 Under 31.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2023 W17 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2023 W16 Under 20.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ❌
- 2023 W16 Under 20.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2023 W16 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2023 W13 Under 32.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ✅
For information and entertainment only; not betting advice. Lines are a pregame consensus of US sportsbooks via The Odds API and change quickly. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
How this works
Lines are the median across US books about an hour before kickoff. Projections are rolling-origin: made only from data before that week. Players who did not play are void.
Sources: The Odds API (US sportsbooks), nflverseFull methodology