TE · MIA · 72 lines since 2023
Greg Dulcich Player Props
Closing consensus lines for Greg Dulcich, what he did, and what our model projected before the game.
2026 Week 5
- Anytime TD priced at 20% — we make it 25%
- Line 15.5 yds longest rec — we project 13 (P(over) 40%)
- Line 25.5 rec yds — we project 22 (P(over) 45%)
- Line 2.5 receptions — we project 3 (P(over) 54%)
Over/under record by market
- Receiving yards over 8, under 10 (18 graded)
- Receptions over 7, under 10 (17 graded)
- Anytime TD over 1, under 24 (25 graded)
- Longest reception over 7, under 1 (8 graded)
Our calls on him: Missed tackles 3–0 · model 20–11 · Freezing 1–1 · Pre-snap motion 1–0 · Starters out on defense 3–0 · Short week 0–1
Line vs actual vs our projection
| Week | Market | Line | We projected | P(over) us / market | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 W5 | Any TD | – | 25% TD chance | 25% / 20% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Long rec | 15.5 | 13 | 40% / 48% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rec yds | 25.5 | 22 | 45% / 50% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 54% / 53% | – | … |
| 2026 W4 | Any TD | – | 19% TD chance | 19% / 16% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W4 | Rec yds | 29.5 | 20 | 33% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W4 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 38% / 41% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Any TD | – | 19% TD chance | 19% / 20% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Rec yds | 22.5 | 19 | 45% / 50% | 55 | over |
| 2026 W3 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 49% / 43% | 5 | over |
| 2026 W2 | Any TD | – | 9% TD chance | 9% / 14% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Rec yds | 20.5 | 13 | 34% / 50% | 17 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 35% / 43% | 2 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Any TD | – | 20% TD chance | 20% / 18% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Rec yds | 25.5 | 30 | 56% / 50% | 18 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 66% / 49% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W18 | Any TD | – | 13% TD chance | 13% / 22% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W18 | Long rec | 18.5 | 11 | 23% / 49% | 20 | over |
| 2025 W18 | Rec yds | 42.5 | 17 | 14% / 50% | 31 | under |
| 2025 W18 | Rec | 3.5 | 2 | 27% / 53% | 3 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Any TD | – | 8% TD chance | 8% / 12% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W17 | Long rec | 11.5 | 10 | 45% / 51% | 23 | over |
| 2025 W17 | Rec yds | 17.5 | 14 | 44% / 49% | 58 | over |
| 2025 W17 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 55% / 54% | 5 | over |
| 2025 W16 | Any TD | – | 10% TD chance | 10% / 13% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Long rec | 11.5 | 11 | 47% / 48% | 29 | over |
| 2025 W16 | Rec yds | 15.5 | 14 | 48% / 50% | 46 | over |
| 2025 W16 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 53% / 49% | 3 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Any TD | – | 12% TD chance | 12% / 14% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Long rec | 12.5 | 11 | 47% / 49% | 29 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Rec yds | 17.5 | 17 | 48% / 50% | 46 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 60% / 57% | 2 | over |
| 2025 W14 | Any TD | – | 9% TD chance | 9% / 11% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Long rec | 7.5 | 10.0 | 58% / 49% | 23 | over |
| 2025 W14 | Rec yds | 10.5 | 13 | 56% / 48% | 41 | over |
| 2025 W14 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 50% / 40% | 3 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Any TD | – | 13% TD chance | 13% / 14% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Rec yds | 9.5 | 17 | 64% / 51% | 24 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 57% / 42% | 2 | over |
| 2025 W11 | Any TD | – | 8% TD chance | 8% / 20% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Long rec | 14.5 | 12 | 43% / 50% | 14 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Rec yds | 23.5 | 17 | 40% / 50% | 18 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 32% / 47% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Any TD | – | 4% TD chance | 4% / 19% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Long rec | 13.5 | 7.9 | 30% / 49% | 22 | over |
| 2025 W10 | Rec yds | 21.5 | 10 | 28% / 50% | 22 | over |
| 2025 W10 | Rec | 2.5 | 1 | 26% / 43% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Any TD | – | 2% TD chance | 2% / 13% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Long rec | 4.5 | 0 | 16% / 51% | 16 | over |
| 2025 W9 | Rec yds | 5.5 | 0 | 15% / 49% | 49 | over |
| 2025 W8 | Any TD | – | 2% TD chance | 2% / 14% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W18 | Any TD | – | 1% TD chance | 1% / 7% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W17 | Any TD | – | 1% TD chance | 1% / 6% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W16 | Any TD | – | 1% TD chance | 1% / 5% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W15 | Any TD | – | 1% TD chance | 1% / 5% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W14 | Any TD | – | 3% TD chance | 3% / 10% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W4 | Any TD | – | 5% TD chance | 5% / 14% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W4 | Rec yds | 17.5 | 9.6 | 32% / 49% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W4 | Rec | 2.5 | 1 | 22% / 39% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W3 | Any TD | – | 13% TD chance | 13% / 15% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W3 | Rec yds | 20.5 | 21 | 51% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W3 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 48% / 48% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W2 | Any TD | – | 13% TD chance | 13% / 14% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W2 | Rec yds | 21.5 | 13 | 33% / 48% | 16 | under |
| 2024 W2 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 33% / 47% | 3 | over |
| 2024 W1 | Any TD | – | 2% TD chance | 2% / 18% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W1 | Rec yds | 20.5 | 1.8 | 12% / 50% | 12 | under |
| 2024 W1 | Rec | 2.5 | 1 | 6% / 42% | 2 | under |
| 2023 W6 | Any TD | – | 6% TD chance | 6% / 12% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W1 | Any TD | – | – | – / 29% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W1 | Rec yds | 32.5 | – | – / 50% | 22 | under |
| 2023 W1 | Rec | 3.5 | – | – / 44% | 2 | under |
Our calls
- 2026 W4 Under 29.5 rec yds (Missed tackles, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W4 Under 29.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W3 Under 22.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W3 Over 2.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W2 Under 20.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W2 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W1 Over 25.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W1 Over 2.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2025 W18 Under 18.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W18 Under 42.5 rec yds (Freezing, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W18 Under 42.5 rec yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W18 Under 42.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W18 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W17 Under 11.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W17 Under 17.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W17 Over 17.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W16 Over 15.5 rec yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W15 Under 17.5 rec yds (Freezing, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W15 Over 17.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W14 Over 7.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W14 Over 10.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W14 Over 10.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W14 Over 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W13 Over 9.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W13 Over 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W11 Under 14.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W11 Under 23.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W11 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W10 Under 13.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W10 Over 21.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W10 Under 21.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W10 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W9 Under 4.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W9 Under 5.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W9 Under 5.5 rec yds (Short week, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W4 Under 17.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W4 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W2 Under 21.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W2 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W1 Under 20.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W1 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
For information and entertainment only; not betting advice. Lines are a pregame consensus of US sportsbooks via The Odds API and change quickly. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
How this works
Lines are the median across US books about an hour before kickoff. Projections are rolling-origin: made only from data before that week. Players who did not play are void.
Sources: The Odds API (US sportsbooks), nflverseFull methodology