TE · TEN · 77 lines since 2023
Gunnar Helm Player Props
Closing consensus lines for Gunnar Helm, what he did, and what our model projected before the game.
2026 Week 5
- Anytime TD priced at 16% — we make it 12%
- Line 9.5 yds longest rec — we project 8.6 (P(over) 46%)
- Line 15.5 rec yds — we project 13 (P(over) 44%)
- Line 2.5 receptions — we project 2 (P(over) 40%)
Over/under record by market
- Receiving yards over 10, under 9 (19 graded)
- Receptions over 9, under 9 (18 graded)
- Anytime TD over 2, under 18 (20 graded)
- Longest reception over 10, under 5 (15 graded)
Our calls on him: Starters out on defense 1–2 · model 22–19 · Pre-snap motion 1–0 · Wind 15+ mph 0–1
Line vs actual vs our projection
| Week | Market | Line | We projected | P(over) us / market | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 W5 | Any TD | – | 12% TD chance | 12% / 16% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Long rec | 9.5 | 8.6 | 46% / 48% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rec yds | 15.5 | 13 | 44% / 50% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 40% / 44% | – | … |
| 2026 W4 | Any TD | – | 14% TD chance | 14% / 16% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W4 | Rec yds | 19.5 | 14 | 38% / 49% | 5 | under |
| 2026 W4 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 42% / 54% | 1 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Any TD | – | 16% TD chance | 16% / 17% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Rec yds | 20.5 | 13 | 33% / 49% | 14 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 36% / 52% | 2 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Any TD | – | 14% TD chance | 14% / 14% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Rec yds | 22.5 | 13 | 29% / 51% | 13 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Rec | 3.5 | 2 | 21% / 41% | 2 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Any TD | – | 22% TD chance | 22% / 18% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Rec yds | 20.5 | 19 | 46% / 50% | 28 | over |
| 2026 W1 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 48% / 45% | 4 | over |
| 2025 W18 | Any TD | – | – | – / 17% | – | void |
| 2025 W17 | Any TD | – | 14% TD chance | 14% / 20% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Long rec | 13.5 | 9.8 | 35% / 50% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Rec yds | 24.5 | 15 | 33% / 50% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 42% / 57% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Any TD | – | 14% TD chance | 14% / 16% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Long rec | 13.5 | 9.7 | 33% / 48% | 7 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Rec yds | 23.5 | 15 | 32% / 49% | 9 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 44% / 55% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Any TD | – | 10% TD chance | 10% / 17% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Long rec | 12.5 | 9.7 | 37% / 48% | 34 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Rec yds | 24.5 | 15 | 32% / 50% | 49 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Rec | 3.5 | 2 | 28% / 43% | 4 | over |
| 2025 W14 | Any TD | – | 10% TD chance | 10% / 15% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Long rec | 13.5 | 8.2 | 25% / 51% | 8 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Rec yds | 24.5 | 12 | 25% / 49% | 8 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 43% / 54% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Any TD | – | 11% TD chance | 11% / 19% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Long rec | 13.5 | 12 | 42% / 49% | 6 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Rec yds | 25.5 | 19 | 37% / 50% | 23 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 50% / 56% | 6 | over |
| 2025 W12 | Any TD | – | 9% TD chance | 9% / 15% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Long rec | 12.5 | 9.1 | 35% / 51% | 15 | over |
| 2025 W12 | Rec yds | 23.5 | 14 | 30% / 51% | 51 | over |
| 2025 W12 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 43% / 51% | 6 | over |
| 2025 W11 | Any TD | – | 11% TD chance | 11% / 13% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Long rec | 9.5 | 8.2 | 45% / 50% | 11 | over |
| 2025 W11 | Rec yds | 13.5 | 12 | 46% / 50% | 29 | over |
| 2025 W11 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 57% / 49% | 4 | over |
| 2025 W9 | Any TD | – | 12% TD chance | 12% / 17% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Long rec | 10.5 | 9.6 | 46% / 51% | 15 | over |
| 2025 W9 | Rec yds | 16.5 | 15 | 47% / 51% | 15 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 65% / 61% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W8 | Any TD | – | 9% TD chance | 9% / 20% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W8 | Long rec | 11.5 | 10 | 45% / 52% | 22 | over |
| 2025 W8 | Rec yds | 22.5 | 17 | 39% / 50% | 23 | over |
| 2025 W8 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 47% / 52% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Any TD | – | 9% TD chance | 9% / 18% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Long rec | 11.5 | 8.5 | 37% / 50% | 13 | over |
| 2025 W7 | Rec yds | 17.5 | 12 | 37% / 50% | 36 | over |
| 2025 W7 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 34% / 41% | 4 | over |
| 2025 W6 | Any TD | – | 8% TD chance | 8% / 16% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Long rec | 11.5 | 7.8 | 35% / 51% | 9 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Rec yds | 20.5 | 11 | 29% / 51% | 15 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 29% / 47% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Any TD | – | 7% TD chance | 7% / 9% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Long rec | 9.5 | 6.7 | 39% / 48% | 19 | over |
| 2025 W5 | Rec yds | 13.5 | 8.3 | 36% / 50% | 34 | over |
| 2025 W5 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 45% / 53% | 4 | over |
| 2025 W4 | Any TD | – | 5% TD chance | 5% / 7% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Long rec | 8.5 | 6.3 | 41% / 51% | 12 | over |
| 2025 W4 | Rec yds | 10.5 | 7.9 | 44% / 50% | 12 | over |
| 2025 W3 | Any TD | – | 7% TD chance | 7% / 8% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Long rec | 5.5 | 5.8 | 52% / 52% | 11 | over |
| 2025 W3 | Rec yds | 6.5 | 7.0 | 51% / 50% | 27 | over |
| 2025 W3 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 37% / 33% | 3 | over |
| 2025 W2 | Any TD | – | 6% TD chance | 6% / 7% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Long rec | 6.5 | 5.3 | 47% / 52% | 7 | over |
| 2025 W2 | Rec yds | 7.5 | 6.3 | 47% / 51% | 9 | over |
| 2025 W2 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 34% / 34% | 2 | over |
| 2025 W1 | Any TD | – | – | – / 7% | 0 | under |
Our calls
- 2026 W4 Over 19.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W4 Under 19.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W4 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W3 Under 20.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W3 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W2 Under 22.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W2 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2025 W17 Under 13.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W17 Under 24.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W17 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W16 Under 13.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W16 Under 23.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W16 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W15 Under 12.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W15 Under 24.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W15 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W14 Under 13.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W14 Under 24.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W14 Under 24.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W14 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W13 Under 13.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W13 Under 25.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W13 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W12 Under 12.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W12 Under 23.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W12 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W11 Under 9.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W11 Over 13.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W11 Over 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W9 Over 16.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W8 Under 11.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W8 Under 22.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W8 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W7 Under 11.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W7 Under 17.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W7 Under 17.5 rec yds (Wind 15+ mph, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W7 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W6 Under 11.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W6 Under 20.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W6 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W5 Under 9.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W5 Under 13.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W5 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W4 Under 8.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W4 Under 10.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W2 Under 6.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
For information and entertainment only; not betting advice. Lines are a pregame consensus of US sportsbooks via The Odds API and change quickly. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
How this works
Lines are the median across US books about an hour before kickoff. Projections are rolling-origin: made only from data before that week. Players who did not play are void.
Sources: The Odds API (US sportsbooks), nflverseFull methodology