TE · ARI · 47 lines since 2023
Hunter Long Player Props
Closing consensus lines for Hunter Long, what he did, and what our model projected before the game.
Over/under record by market
- Receiving yards over 1, under 4 (5 graded)
- Receptions over 1, under 3 (4 graded)
- Anytime TD over 3, under 30 (33 graded)
- Longest reception over 1, under 3 (4 graded)
Our calls on him: model 13–0 · Pre-snap motion 1–0 · Starters out on defense 0–1 · Dome team outdoors 1–0
Line vs actual vs our projection
| Week | Market | Line | We projected | P(over) us / market | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 W5 | Any TD | – | – | – / 6% | – | … |
| 2026 W4 | Any TD | – | 2% TD chance | 2% / 8% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Any TD | – | 2% TD chance | 2% / 8% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Any TD | – | 2% TD chance | 2% / 6% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Any TD | – | 8% TD chance | 8% / 4% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Any TD | – | 10% TD chance | 10% / 5% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Any TD | – | 12% TD chance | 12% / 21% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Long rec | 10.5 | 8.7 | 42% / 53% | 6 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Rec yds | 17.5 | 11 | 36% / 50% | 6 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Rec | 2.5 | 1 | 23% / 43% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Any TD | – | 12% TD chance | 12% / 18% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Long rec | 10.5 | 7.4 | 38% / 51% | 9 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Rec yds | 16.5 | 9.5 | 35% / 50% | 16 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Rec | 2.5 | 1 | 22% / 44% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Any TD | – | 9% TD chance | 9% / 21% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Long rec | 12.5 | 4.9 | 26% / 49% | 11 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Rec yds | 23.5 | 5.6 | 15% / 51% | 19 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Rec | 2.5 | 1 | 13% / 59% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Any TD | – | 11% TD chance | 11% / 9% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Long rec | 2.5 | 5.0 | 59% / 51% | 3 | over |
| 2025 W5 | Rec yds | 2.5 | 5.6 | 59% / 50% | 3 | over |
| 2025 W5 | Rec | 0.5 | 1 | 66% / 56% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W4 | Any TD | – | 4% TD chance | 4% / 4% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W3 | Any TD | – | 4% TD chance | 4% / 3% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Any TD | – | 6% TD chance | 6% / 6% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Any TD | – | 2% TD chance | 2% / 6% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W18 | Any TD | – | 1% TD chance | 1% / 5% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W17 | Any TD | – | 1% TD chance | 1% / 5% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W16 | Any TD | – | 1% TD chance | 1% / 6% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W15 | Any TD | – | 1% TD chance | 1% / 5% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W14 | Any TD | – | 1% TD chance | 1% / 6% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W13 | Any TD | – | 1% TD chance | 1% / 4% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W12 | Any TD | – | 1% TD chance | 1% / 7% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W11 | Any TD | – | 1% TD chance | 1% / 5% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W10 | Any TD | – | 3% TD chance | 3% / 7% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W9 | Any TD | – | 2% TD chance | 2% / 7% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W8 | Any TD | – | 2% TD chance | 2% / 6% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W7 | Any TD | – | 3% TD chance | 3% / 12% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W5 | Any TD | – | 3% TD chance | 3% / 7% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W4 | Any TD | – | 3% TD chance | 3% / 6% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W3 | Any TD | – | 2% TD chance | 2% / 6% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W2 | Any TD | – | 3% TD chance | 3% / 7% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W1 | Any TD | – | 5% TD chance | 5% / 7% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W14 | Any TD | – | 6% TD chance | 6% / 15% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W14 | Rec yds | 12.5 | 0 | 13% / 49% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W13 | Any TD | – | 5% TD chance | 5% / 5% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W12 | Any TD | – | – | – / 4% | 0 | under |
Our calls
- 2025 W9 Under 10.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W9 Under 17.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W9 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W7 Under 10.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W7 Under 16.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W7 Under 16.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W7 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W6 Under 12.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W6 Over 23.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W6 Under 23.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W6 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W5 Over 2.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W5 Over 2.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W5 Over 0.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2023 W14 Under 12.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ✅
- 2023 W14 Under 12.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
For information and entertainment only; not betting advice. Lines are a pregame consensus of US sportsbooks via The Odds API and change quickly. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
How this works
Lines are the median across US books about an hour before kickoff. Projections are rolling-origin: made only from data before that week. Players who did not play are void.
Sources: The Odds API (US sportsbooks), nflverseFull methodology