Edgehalla

TE · LV · 49 lines since 2023

Ian Thomas Player Props

Closing consensus lines for Ian Thomas, what he did, and what our model projected before the game.

2026 Week 5

  • Anytime TD priced at 6% — we make it 2%
  • Line 0.5 receptions — we project 0 (P(over) 44%)

Over/under record by market

  • Receiving yards over 1, under 2 (3 graded)
  • Receptions over 1, under 2 (3 graded)
  • Anytime TD over 1, under 34 (35 graded)
  • Longest reception over 3, under 1 (4 graded)

Our calls on him: model 5–5 · Starters out on defense 0–1

Line vs actual vs our projection

Ian Thomas prop line history
WeekMarketLineWe projectedP(over) us / marketActualResult
2026 W5Any TD–2% TD chance2% / 6%–…
2026 W5Rec0.5044% / 43%–…
2026 W4Any TD–1% TD chance1% / 4%1over
2026 W3Any TD–2% TD chance2% / 6%0under
2026 W2Any TD–2% TD chance2% / 6%0under
2026 W1Any TD–3% TD chance3% / 8%0under
2025 W17Any TD–2% TD chance2% / 13%0under
2025 W17Long rec7.51.829% / 51%0under
2025 W17Rec yds9.51.827% / 49%0under
2025 W17Rec1.5121% / 40%0under
2025 W16Any TD–1% TD chance1% / 5%–void
2025 W15Any TD–1% TD chance1% / 4%–void
2025 W14Any TD–2% TD chance2% / 10%0under
2025 W14Long rec6.53.537% / 51%12over
2025 W14Rec yds8.53.834% / 51%17over
2025 W14Rec1.5129% / 48%2over
2025 W13Any TD–1% TD chance1% / 13%0under
2025 W13Long rec7.52.430% / 48%8over
2025 W13Rec yds10.52.726% / 49%8under
2025 W13Rec1.5127% / 49%1under
2025 W12Any TD–2% TD chance2% / 4%0under
2025 W11Any TD–1% TD chance1% / 5%0under
2025 W10Any TD–1% TD chance1% / 3%0under
2025 W9Any TD–2% TD chance2% / 6%0under
2025 W7Any TD–2% TD chance2% / 7%0under
2025 W6Any TD–2% TD chance2% / 11%0under
2025 W5Any TD–2% TD chance2% / 18%0under
2025 W5Long rec8.505% / 50%10over
2025 W4Any TD–3% TD chance3% / 9%0under
2025 W3Any TD–3% TD chance3% / 4%0under
2025 W2Any TD–4% TD chance4% / 5%0under
2025 W1Any TD–6% TD chance6% / 3%0under
2024 W10Any TD–6% TD chance6% / 6%0under
2024 W9Any TD–7% TD chance7% / 9%0under
2024 W8Any TD–6% TD chance6% / 5%0under
2024 W7Any TD–7% TD chance7% / 8%0under
2024 W6Any TD–5% TD chance5% / 8%0under
2023 W18Any TD–2% TD chance2% / 5%0under
2023 W17Any TD–3% TD chance3% / 7%0under
2023 W16Any TD–3% TD chance3% / 5%0under
2023 W14Any TD–5% TD chance5% / 8%0under
2023 W13Any TD–5% TD chance5% / 12%0under
2023 W12Any TD–4% TD chance4% / 7%0under
2023 W11Any TD–4% TD chance4% / 6%0under
2023 W5Any TD–7% TD chance7% / 6%0under
2023 W4Any TD–6% TD chance6% / 5%0under
2023 W3Any TD–7% TD chance7% / 5%0under
2023 W2Any TD–1% TD chance1% / 5%0under
2023 W1Any TD––– / 7%0under

Our calls

  • 2025 W17 Under 7.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2025 W17 Over 9.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W17 Under 9.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2025 W17 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2025 W14 Under 6.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W14 Under 8.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W14 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W13 Under 7.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W13 Under 10.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2025 W13 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2025 W5 Under 8.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌

For information and entertainment only; not betting advice. Lines are a pregame consensus of US sportsbooks via The Odds API and change quickly. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

How this works

Lines are the median across US books about an hour before kickoff. Projections are rolling-origin: made only from data before that week. Players who did not play are void.

Sources: The Odds API (US sportsbooks), nflverseFull methodology