QB · DET · 265 lines since 2023
Jared Goff Player Props
Closing consensus lines for Jared Goff, what he did, and what our model projected before the game.
2026 Week 5
- Anytime TD priced at 8% — we make it 11%
- Line 34.5 pass attempts — we project 35 (P(over) 54%)
- Line 24.5 completions — we project 23 (P(over) 38%)
- Line 2.5 pass TDs — we project 2 (P(over) 37%)
- Line 281.5 pass yds — we project 297 (P(over) 56%)
- Line 0.5 rush yds — we project 5.9 (P(over) 74%)
Over/under record by market
- Passing yards over 35, under 20 (55 graded)
- Passing TDs over 33, under 22 (55 graded)
- Rushing yards over 20, under 30 (50 graded)
- Anytime TD over 3, under 52 (55 graded)
- Pass attempts over 9, under 8 (17 graded)
- Completions over 10, under 7 (17 graded)
- Rush attempts over 3, under 7 (10 graded)
Our calls on him: Dome team outdoors 7–10 · High total (48.5+) 29–14 · Man coverage 7–6 · model 48–75 · Pressure 5–3 · Short week 3–3 · Big favourite (6.5+) 3–4 · Starters out on defense 5–5 · Wind 15+ mph 1–2 · Play action 5–3 · Freezing 0–1 · Blitz-heavy defense 2–0
Line vs actual vs our projection
| Week | Market | Line | We projected | P(over) us / market | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 W5 | Any TD | – | 11% TD chance | 11% / 8% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Pass att | 34.5 | 35 | 54% / 51% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Cmp | 24.5 | 23 | 38% / 52% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Pass TDs | 2.5 | 2 | 37% / 38% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Pass yds | 281.5 | 297 | 56% / 50% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rush yds | 0.5 | 5.9 | 74% / 51% | – | … |
| 2026 W4 | Any TD | – | 11% TD chance | 11% / 8% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W4 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 2 | 60% / 62% | 1 | under |
| 2026 W4 | Pass yds | 259.5 | 270 | 55% / 50% | 412 | over |
| 2026 W4 | Rush yds | 1.5 | 7.2 | 73% / 49% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Any TD | – | 11% TD chance | 11% / 5% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Pass TDs | 2.5 | 2 | 36% / 36% | 2 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Pass yds | 260.5 | 270 | 54% / 50% | 269 | over |
| 2026 W3 | Rush yds | 0.5 | 5.6 | 74% / 46% | 6 | over |
| 2026 W2 | Any TD | – | 9% TD chance | 9% / 5% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 47% / 55% | 4 | over |
| 2026 W2 | Pass yds | 258.5 | 250 | 48% / 50% | 327 | over |
| 2026 W2 | Rush yds | 0.5 | 3.9 | 67% / 42% | 7 | over |
| 2026 W1 | Any TD | – | 14% TD chance | 14% / 6% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 2 | 58% / 62% | 2 | over |
| 2026 W1 | Pass yds | 258.5 | 259 | 50% / 50% | 206 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Rush yds | 0.5 | 5.7 | 73% / 40% | 2 | over |
| 2025 W18 | Any TD | – | 8% TD chance | 8% / 5% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W18 | Pass att | 33.5 | 33 | 49% / 48% | 42 | over |
| 2025 W18 | Cmp | 22.5 | 22 | 48% / 49% | 27 | over |
| 2025 W18 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 49% / 52% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W18 | Pass yds | 253.5 | 249 | 48% / 50% | 331 | over |
| 2025 W17 | Any TD | – | 11% TD chance | 11% / 6% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Pass att | 32.5 | 31 | 44% / 52% | 29 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Cmp | 22.5 | 21 | 37% / 50% | 18 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 2 | 55% / 55% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Pass yds | 247.5 | 238 | 46% / 50% | 197 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Any TD | – | 11% TD chance | 11% / 6% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Pass att | 32.5 | 33 | 53% / 51% | 54 | over |
| 2025 W16 | Cmp | 22.5 | 22 | 48% / 50% | 34 | over |
| 2025 W16 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 2 | 59% / 63% | 3 | over |
| 2025 W16 | Pass yds | 268.5 | 289 | 57% / 50% | 364 | over |
| 2025 W16 | Rush yds | 0.5 | 2.9 | 62% / 38% | -1 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Any TD | – | 10% TD chance | 10% / 5% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Pass att | 34.5 | 34 | 46% / 50% | 41 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Cmp | 23.5 | 23 | 45% / 48% | 25 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 48% / 54% | 3 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Pass yds | 260.5 | 252 | 46% / 49% | 338 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Rush att | 1.5 | 1 | 45% / 42% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Rush yds | 0.5 | 2.8 | 61% / 45% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Any TD | – | 8% TD chance | 8% / 7% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Pass att | 32.5 | 32 | 49% / 49% | 34 | over |
| 2025 W14 | Cmp | 22.5 | 22 | 45% / 50% | 25 | over |
| 2025 W14 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 2 | 57% / 64% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Pass yds | 258.5 | 274 | 56% / 50% | 309 | over |
| 2025 W14 | Rush att | 1.5 | 1 | 48% / 50% | 2 | over |
| 2025 W14 | Rush yds | 0.5 | 4.0 | 65% / 45% | -2 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Any TD | – | 11% TD chance | 11% / 5% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Pass att | 32.5 | 32 | 45% / 51% | 26 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Cmp | 22.5 | 21 | 41% / 51% | 20 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 2 | 54% / 56% | 2 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Pass yds | 241.5 | 242 | 50% / 50% | 256 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Rush yds | 0.5 | 2.1 | 59% / 41% | 24 | over |
| 2025 W12 | Any TD | – | 12% TD chance | 12% / 6% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Pass att | 31.5 | 31 | 48% / 46% | 42 | over |
| 2025 W12 | Cmp | 21.5 | 21 | 45% / 52% | 28 | over |
| 2025 W12 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 2 | 65% / 63% | 2 | over |
| 2025 W12 | Pass yds | 254.5 | 277 | 59% / 51% | 279 | over |
| 2025 W12 | Rush att | 1.5 | 2 | 57% / 54% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Rush yds | 0.5 | 4.6 | 68% / 39% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Any TD | – | 7% TD chance | 7% / 5% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Pass att | 32.5 | 32 | 45% / 48% | 37 | over |
| 2025 W11 | Cmp | 22.5 | 22 | 46% / 47% | 14 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 42% / 47% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Pass yds | 240.5 | 222 | 42% / 50% | 255 | over |
| 2025 W11 | Rush yds | 0.5 | 2.8 | 62% / 44% | -1 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Any TD | – | 11% TD chance | 11% / 6% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Pass att | 30.5 | 30 | 46% / 49% | 33 | over |
| 2025 W10 | Cmp | 21.5 | 21 | 43% / 48% | 25 | over |
| 2025 W10 | Pass TDs | 2.5 | 2 | 35% / 37% | 3 | over |
| 2025 W10 | Pass yds | 250.5 | 252 | 51% / 49% | 320 | over |
| 2025 W10 | Rush att | 1.5 | 2 | 60% / 53% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Any TD | – | 10% TD chance | 10% / 7% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Pass att | 28.5 | 29 | 50% / 52% | 37 | over |
| 2025 W9 | Cmp | 21.5 | 20 | 37% / 49% | 25 | over |
| 2025 W9 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 2 | 58% / 61% | 2 | over |
| 2025 W9 | Pass yds | 241.5 | 231 | 45% / 51% | 284 | over |
| 2025 W9 | Rush yds | 0.5 | 5.5 | 73% / 44% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Any TD | – | 11% TD chance | 11% / 7% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Pass att | 32.5 | 31 | 41% / 51% | 29 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Cmp | 23.5 | 22 | 37% / 49% | 20 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 2 | 63% / 64% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Pass yds | 264.5 | 266 | 51% / 50% | 241 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Rush yds | 0.5 | 5.0 | 70% / 49% | 7 | over |
| 2025 W6 | Any TD | – | 9% TD chance | 9% / 6% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Pass att | 32.5 | 31 | 39% / 49% | 29 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Cmp | 22.5 | 21 | 40% / 51% | 23 | over |
| 2025 W6 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 2 | 51% / 54% | 2 | over |
| 2025 W6 | Pass yds | 241.5 | 232 | 45% / 50% | 203 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Rush att | 1.5 | 2 | 59% / 48% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Rush yds | 0.5 | 3.5 | 67% / 51% | 7 | over |
| 2025 W5 | Any TD | – | 12% TD chance | 12% / 8% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Pass att | 31.5 | 31 | 48% / 48% | 23 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Cmp | 22.5 | 21 | 43% / 48% | 19 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 2 | 58% / 57% | 3 | over |
| 2025 W5 | Pass yds | 240.5 | 267 | 60% / 50% | 258 | over |
| 2025 W5 | Rush att | 1.5 | 2 | 65% / 56% | 2 | over |
| 2025 W5 | Rush yds | -0.5 | 5.5 | 89% / 58% | -2 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Any TD | – | 12% TD chance | 12% / 7% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Pass att | 29.5 | 29 | 46% / 53% | 27 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Cmp | 20.5 | 20 | 46% / 51% | 16 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 2 | 52% / 52% | 2 | over |
| 2025 W4 | Pass yds | 229.5 | 227 | 49% / 50% | 168 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Rush att | 1.5 | 2 | 70% / 49% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Any TD | – | 9% TD chance | 9% / 5% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Pass att | 35.5 | 34 | 43% / 47% | 28 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Cmp | 24.5 | 24 | 46% / 48% | 20 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 2 | 51% / 53% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Pass yds | 260.5 | 260 | 50% / 49% | 202 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Rush att | 1.5 | 2 | 57% / 37% | 4 | over |
| 2025 W3 | Rush yds | 0.5 | 4.1 | 67% / 48% | 6 | over |
| 2025 W2 | Any TD | – | 12% TD chance | 12% / 6% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Pass att | 31.5 | 31 | 46% / 51% | 28 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Cmp | 22.5 | 21 | 42% / 50% | 23 | over |
| 2025 W2 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 2 | 51% / 54% | 5 | over |
| 2025 W2 | Pass yds | 246.5 | 240 | 47% / 48% | 334 | over |
| 2025 W2 | Rush att | 1.5 | 2 | 68% / 50% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Rush yds | 0.5 | 5.7 | 75% / 43% | 6 | over |
| 2025 W1 | Any TD | – | 13% TD chance | 13% / 6% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Pass att | 32.5 | 33 | 50% / 51% | 39 | over |
| 2025 W1 | Cmp | 22.5 | 22 | 48% / 50% | 31 | over |
| 2025 W1 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 46% / 49% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Pass yds | 241.5 | 235 | 47% / 50% | 225 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Rush att | 1.5 | 2 | 66% / 49% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Rush yds | 1.5 | 5.4 | 68% / 49% | -1 | under |
| 2024 W18 | Any TD | – | 13% TD chance | 13% / 10% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W18 | Pass TDs | 2.5 | 2 | 40% / 38% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W18 | Pass yds | 286.5 | 291 | 52% / 51% | 231 | under |
| 2024 W18 | Rush yds | 1.5 | 4.9 | 67% / 48% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W17 | Any TD | – | 12% TD chance | 12% / 8% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W17 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 2 | 57% / 57% | 3 | over |
| 2024 W17 | Pass yds | 246.5 | 251 | 52% / 50% | 303 | over |
| 2024 W17 | Rush yds | 1.5 | 5.7 | 68% / 49% | -3 | under |
| 2024 W16 | Any TD | – | 12% TD chance | 12% / 10% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W16 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 2 | 56% / 58% | 3 | over |
| 2024 W16 | Pass yds | 252.5 | 251 | 49% / 50% | 336 | over |
| 2024 W16 | Rush yds | 1.5 | 5.7 | 70% / 52% | -1 | under |
| 2024 W15 | Any TD | – | 15% TD chance | 15% / 9% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W15 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 2 | 56% / 59% | 5 | over |
| 2024 W15 | Pass yds | 261.5 | 259 | 49% / 50% | 494 | over |
| 2024 W15 | Rush yds | 1.5 | 5.1 | 67% / 49% | 13 | over |
| 2024 W14 | Any TD | – | 14% TD chance | 14% / 8% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W14 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 2 | 54% / 55% | 3 | over |
| 2024 W14 | Pass yds | 256.5 | 251 | 48% / 51% | 283 | over |
| 2024 W14 | Rush yds | 1.5 | 4.5 | 66% / 51% | 7 | over |
| 2024 W13 | Any TD | – | 15% TD chance | 15% / 8% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W13 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 2 | 53% / 55% | 2 | over |
| 2024 W13 | Pass yds | 247.5 | 237 | 46% / 51% | 221 | under |
| 2024 W13 | Rush yds | 1.5 | 5.0 | 68% / 50% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W12 | Any TD | – | 14% TD chance | 14% / 8% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W12 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 2 | 57% / 56% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W12 | Pass yds | 252.5 | 253 | 50% / 50% | 269 | over |
| 2024 W12 | Rush yds | 0.5 | 6.5 | 78% / 49% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W11 | Any TD | – | 15% TD chance | 15% / 8% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W11 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 2 | 57% / 55% | 4 | over |
| 2024 W11 | Pass yds | 232.5 | 264 | 63% / 50% | 412 | over |
| 2024 W11 | Rush yds | 0.5 | 5.2 | 73% / 51% | 21 | over |
| 2024 W10 | Any TD | – | 12% TD chance | 12% / 7% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W10 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 2 | 50% / 54% | 2 | over |
| 2024 W10 | Pass yds | 233.5 | 235 | 51% / 50% | 240 | over |
| 2024 W10 | Rush yds | 1.5 | 4.0 | 63% / 49% | 2 | over |
| 2024 W9 | Any TD | – | 12% TD chance | 12% / 7% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W9 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 48% / 44% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W9 | Pass yds | 210.5 | 232 | 58% / 50% | 145 | under |
| 2024 W9 | Rush yds | 1.5 | 4.4 | 64% / 50% | -2 | under |
| 2024 W8 | Any TD | – | 17% TD chance | 17% / 7% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W8 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 2 | 53% / 53% | 3 | over |
| 2024 W8 | Pass yds | 236.5 | 242 | 53% / 50% | 85 | under |
| 2024 W8 | Rush yds | 0.5 | 5.4 | 75% / 42% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W7 | Any TD | – | 13% TD chance | 13% / 8% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W7 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 46% / 47% | 2 | over |
| 2024 W7 | Pass yds | 253.5 | 263 | 55% / 50% | 280 | over |
| 2024 W7 | Rush yds | 1.5 | 4.8 | 66% / 48% | -4 | under |
| 2024 W6 | Any TD | – | 15% TD chance | 15% / 11% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W6 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 2 | 51% / 50% | 3 | over |
| 2024 W6 | Pass yds | 246.5 | 240 | 47% / 50% | 315 | over |
| 2024 W6 | Rush yds | 0.5 | 6.3 | 75% / 49% | 5 | over |
| 2024 W4 | Any TD | – | 10% TD chance | 10% / 10% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W4 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 43% / 49% | 2 | over |
| 2024 W4 | Pass yds | 244.5 | 232 | 44% / 50% | 292 | over |
| 2024 W4 | Rush yds | 0.5 | 4.9 | 72% / 46% | -2 | under |
| 2024 W3 | Any TD | – | 13% TD chance | 13% / 9% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W3 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 44% / 55% | 2 | over |
| 2024 W3 | Pass yds | 260.5 | 253 | 46% / 50% | 199 | under |
| 2024 W3 | Rush yds | 0.5 | 5.1 | 72% / 47% | 6 | over |
| 2024 W2 | Any TD | – | 12% TD chance | 12% / 10% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W2 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 2 | 53% / 60% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W2 | Pass yds | 272.5 | 263 | 46% / 50% | 307 | over |
| 2024 W2 | Rush yds | 1.5 | 5.3 | 67% / 47% | 5 | over |
| 2024 W1 | Any TD | – | 14% TD chance | 14% / 11% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W1 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 2 | 57% / 60% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W1 | Pass yds | 268.5 | 283 | 55% / 50% | 217 | under |
| 2024 W1 | Rush yds | 0.5 | 4.9 | 71% / 50% | 7 | over |
| 2023 W18 | Any TD | – | 10% TD chance | 10% / 10% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W18 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 43% / 42% | 2 | over |
| 2023 W18 | Pass yds | 215.5 | 254 | 67% / 50% | 320 | over |
| 2023 W17 | Any TD | – | 9% TD chance | 9% / 10% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W17 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 43% / 51% | 1 | under |
| 2023 W17 | Pass yds | 263.5 | 223 | 34% / 48% | 271 | over |
| 2023 W17 | Rush yds | 0.5 | 3.7 | 69% / 53% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W16 | Any TD | – | 11% TD chance | 11% / 10% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W16 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 2 | 53% / 54% | 1 | under |
| 2023 W16 | Pass yds | 255.5 | 252 | 49% / 50% | 257 | over |
| 2023 W16 | Rush yds | 0.5 | 3.1 | 65% / 47% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W15 | Any TD | – | 13% TD chance | 13% / 13% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W15 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 49% / 51% | 5 | over |
| 2023 W15 | Pass yds | 253.5 | 258 | 52% / 51% | 278 | over |
| 2023 W15 | Rush yds | 0.5 | 4.1 | 70% / 51% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W14 | Any TD | – | 11% TD chance | 11% / 11% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W14 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 42% / 47% | 1 | under |
| 2023 W14 | Pass yds | 241.5 | 246 | 52% / 47% | 161 | under |
| 2023 W14 | Rush yds | 1.5 | 3.7 | 62% / 52% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W13 | Any TD | – | 12% TD chance | 12% / 14% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W13 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 47% / 51% | 2 | over |
| 2023 W13 | Pass yds | 260.5 | 259 | 50% / 49% | 213 | under |
| 2023 W13 | Rush yds | 3.5 | 5.7 | 59% / 47% | -2 | under |
| 2023 W12 | Any TD | – | 14% TD chance | 14% / 15% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W12 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 2 | 53% / 56% | 2 | over |
| 2023 W12 | Pass yds | 255.5 | 251 | 48% / 50% | 332 | over |
| 2023 W12 | Rush yds | 1.5 | 5.3 | 70% / 51% | 9 | over |
| 2023 W11 | Any TD | – | 14% TD chance | 14% / 15% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W11 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 2 | 54% / 59% | 2 | over |
| 2023 W11 | Pass yds | 275.5 | 272 | 49% / 50% | 236 | under |
| 2023 W11 | Rush yds | 0.5 | 4.6 | 71% / 52% | 3 | over |
| 2023 W10 | Any TD | – | 13% TD chance | 13% / 12% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W10 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 43% / 55% | 2 | over |
| 2023 W10 | Pass yds | 275.5 | 275 | 50% / 50% | 333 | over |
| 2023 W10 | Rush yds | 0.5 | 4.3 | 70% / 52% | -2 | under |
| 2023 W8 | Any TD | – | 14% TD chance | 14% / 15% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W8 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 45% / 58% | 1 | under |
| 2023 W8 | Pass yds | 262.5 | 247 | 44% / 50% | 272 | over |
| 2023 W8 | Rush yds | 1.5 | 5.2 | 67% / 50% | -2 | under |
| 2023 W7 | Any TD | – | 14% TD chance | 14% / 10% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W7 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 41% / 40% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W7 | Pass yds | 241.5 | 207 | 34% / 50% | 284 | over |
| 2023 W7 | Rush yds | 2.5 | 5.1 | 64% / 49% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W6 | Any TD | – | 15% TD chance | 15% / 11% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W6 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 48% / 46% | 2 | over |
| 2023 W6 | Pass yds | 245.5 | 227 | 42% / 50% | 353 | over |
| 2023 W6 | Rush yds | 3.5 | 5.8 | 61% / 49% | 3 | under |
| 2023 W5 | Any TD | – | 12% TD chance | 12% / 14% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W5 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 34% / 53% | 3 | over |
| 2023 W5 | Pass yds | 238.5 | 250 | 55% / 50% | 236 | under |
| 2023 W5 | Rush yds | 1.5 | 6.3 | 73% / 51% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W4 | Any TD | – | 13% TD chance | 13% / 13% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W4 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 39% / 50% | 1 | under |
| 2023 W4 | Pass yds | 253.5 | 246 | 47% / 48% | 210 | under |
| 2023 W4 | Rush yds | 3.5 | 7.5 | 66% / 48% | 10 | over |
| 2023 W3 | Any TD | – | 12% TD chance | 12% / 8% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W3 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 39% / 60% | 1 | under |
| 2023 W3 | Pass yds | 265.5 | 243 | 41% / 50% | 243 | under |
| 2023 W3 | Rush yds | 3.5 | 7.9 | 69% / 49% | 3 | under |
| 2023 W2 | Any TD | – | 11% TD chance | 11% / 13% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W2 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | 1 | 33% / 59% | 3 | over |
| 2023 W2 | Pass yds | 269.5 | 224 | 30% / 50% | 323 | over |
| 2023 W2 | Rush yds | 3.5 | 11 | 76% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W1 | Any TD | – | – | – / 10% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W1 | Pass TDs | 1.5 | – | – / 55% | 1 | under |
| 2023 W1 | Pass yds | 259.5 | – | – / 50% | 253 | under |
| 2023 W1 | Rush yds | 3.5 | – | – / 51% | -1 | under |
Our calls
- 2026 W4 Under 259.5 pass yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W4 Over 259.5 pass yds (High total (48.5+), backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W4 Under 259.5 pass yds (Man coverage, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W4 Over 259.5 pass yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W4 Over 259.5 pass yds (Pressure, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W4 Over 1.5 rush yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W3 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W3 Over 260.5 pass yds (High total (48.5+), backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W3 Over 0.5 rush yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W2 Under 1.5 pass TDs (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W2 Under 258.5 pass yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W2 Over 258.5 pass yds (High total (48.5+), backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W2 Under 258.5 pass yds (Short week, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W2 Over 0.5 rush yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W1 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W1 Over 258.5 pass yds (High total (48.5+), backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W1 Under 258.5 pass yds (Man coverage, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W1 Over 0.5 rush yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2025 W18 Over 33.5 pass attempts (High total (48.5+), backtest) ✅
- 2025 W18 Under 253.5 pass yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W18 Over 253.5 pass yds (High total (48.5+), backtest) ✅
- 2025 W17 Under 32.5 pass attempts (Big favourite (6.5+), backtest) ✅
- 2025 W17 Under 32.5 pass attempts (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W17 Under 22.5 completions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W17 Under 22.5 completions (Pressure, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W17 Under 247.5 pass yds (Man coverage, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W17 Under 247.5 pass yds (Pressure, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W17 Under 247.5 pass yds (Short week, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W16 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W16 Under 32.5 pass attempts (Big favourite (6.5+), backtest) ❌
- 2025 W16 Over 32.5 pass attempts (High total (48.5+), backtest) ✅
- 2025 W16 Over 268.5 pass yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W16 Over 268.5 pass yds (High total (48.5+), backtest) ✅
- 2025 W16 Over 268.5 pass yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W16 Over 0.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W15 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W15 Over 34.5 pass attempts (High total (48.5+), backtest) ✅
- 2025 W15 Under 1.5 pass TDs (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W15 Over 260.5 pass yds (High total (48.5+), backtest) ✅
- 2025 W15 Over 0.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W14 Over 32.5 pass attempts (High total (48.5+), backtest) ✅
- 2025 W14 Under 1.5 pass TDs (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W14 Over 258.5 pass yds (High total (48.5+), backtest) ✅
- 2025 W14 Over 258.5 pass yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W14 Over 0.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Over 32.5 pass attempts (High total (48.5+), backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Under 32.5 pass attempts (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W13 Under 22.5 completions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W13 Over 241.5 pass yds (High total (48.5+), backtest) ✅
- 2025 W13 Under 241.5 pass yds (Man coverage, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Under 241.5 pass yds (Short week, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Over 0.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W12 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W12 Under 31.5 pass attempts (Big favourite (6.5+), backtest) ❌
- 2025 W12 Over 31.5 pass attempts (High total (48.5+), backtest) ✅
- 2025 W12 Under 21.5 completions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W12 Over 254.5 pass yds (High total (48.5+), backtest) ✅
- 2025 W12 Over 254.5 pass yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W12 Over 0.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
For information and entertainment only; not betting advice. Lines are a pregame consensus of US sportsbooks via The Odds API and change quickly. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
How this works
Lines are the median across US books about an hour before kickoff. Projections are rolling-origin: made only from data before that week. Players who did not play are void.
Sources: The Odds API (US sportsbooks), nflverseFull methodology