WR · DEN · 169 lines since 2023
Jaylen Waddle Player Props
Closing consensus lines for Jaylen Waddle, what he did, and what our model projected before the game.
2026 Week 5
- Anytime TD priced at 34% — we make it 25%
- Line 20.5 yds longest rec — we project 23 (P(over) 58%)
- Line 55.5 rec yds — we project 51 (P(over) 45%)
- Line 4.5 receptions — we project 4 (P(over) 45%)
Over/under record by market
- Rushing yards over 0, under 2 (2 graded)
- Receiving yards over 22, under 27 (49 graded)
- Receptions over 24, under 25 (49 graded)
- Anytime TD over 13, under 36 (49 graded)
- Longest reception over 9, under 7 (16 graded)
Our calls on him: Pre-snap motion 9–13 · model 34–29 · Missed tackles 7–6 · Freezing 1–1 · Starters out on defense 5–6 · Middle of the field 8–8 · Short week 2–2 · Wind 15+ mph 4–3 · Play action 1–0 · Explosive plays 2–1
Line vs actual vs our projection
| Week | Market | Line | We projected | P(over) us / market | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 W5 | Any TD | – | 25% TD chance | 25% / 34% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Long rec | 20.5 | 23 | 58% / 51% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rec yds | 55.5 | 51 | 45% / 50% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 45% / 54% | – | … |
| 2026 W4 | Any TD | – | 21% TD chance | 21% / 34% | 1 | over |
| 2026 W4 | Rec yds | 58.5 | 54 | 46% / 50% | 35 | under |
| 2026 W4 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 43% / 49% | 5 | over |
| 2026 W3 | Any TD | – | 26% TD chance | 26% / 35% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Rec yds | 59.5 | 53 | 44% / 50% | 10 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 46% / 58% | 2 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Any TD | – | 25% TD chance | 25% / 36% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Rec yds | 54.5 | 39 | 35% / 50% | 138 | over |
| 2026 W2 | Rec | 4.5 | 3 | 29% / 47% | 8 | over |
| 2026 W1 | Any TD | – | 29% TD chance | 29% / 32% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Rec yds | 58.5 | 54 | 46% / 50% | 2 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 53% / 53% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Any TD | – | 24% TD chance | 24% / 30% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Long rec | 23.5 | 22 | 46% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Rec yds | 58.5 | 50 | 42% / 51% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 46% / 52% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Any TD | – | 28% TD chance | 28% / 33% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Long rec | 22.5 | 23 | 52% / 50% | 21 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Rec yds | 53.5 | 51 | 47% / 49% | 72 | over |
| 2025 W16 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 43% / 41% | 5 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Any TD | – | 24% TD chance | 24% / 33% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Long rec | 23.5 | 24 | 52% / 50% | 16 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Rec yds | 63.5 | 57 | 44% / 50% | 26 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 53% / 55% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Any TD | – | 27% TD chance | 27% / 36% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W14 | Long rec | 23.5 | 24 | 51% / 50% | 24 | over |
| 2025 W14 | Rec yds | 66.5 | 53 | 37% / 50% | 50 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 46% / 56% | 5 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Any TD | – | 32% TD chance | 32% / 43% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Long rec | 24.5 | 26 | 54% / 50% | 22 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Rec yds | 70.5 | 59 | 40% / 50% | 40 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Rec | 5.5 | 4 | 35% / 43% | 3 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Any TD | – | 37% TD chance | 37% / 49% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Long rec | 26.5 | 28 | 54% / 50% | 31 | over |
| 2025 W11 | Rec yds | 79.5 | 68 | 41% / 50% | 52 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Rec | 5.5 | 5 | 45% / 50% | 3 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Any TD | – | 32% TD chance | 32% / 39% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W10 | Long rec | 23.5 | 24 | 52% / 50% | 38 | over |
| 2025 W10 | Rec yds | 66.5 | 59 | 43% / 50% | 84 | over |
| 2025 W10 | Rec | 5.5 | 5 | 40% / 45% | 5 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Any TD | – | 32% TD chance | 32% / 41% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Long rec | 22.5 | 26 | 59% / 51% | 24 | over |
| 2025 W9 | Rec yds | 66.5 | 63 | 48% / 51% | 82 | over |
| 2025 W9 | Rec | 5.5 | 5 | 47% / 44% | 6 | over |
| 2025 W8 | Any TD | – | 30% TD chance | 30% / 36% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W8 | Long rec | 22.5 | 22 | 49% / 50% | 43 | over |
| 2025 W8 | Rec yds | 61.5 | 55 | 44% / 50% | 99 | over |
| 2025 W8 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 57% / 57% | 5 | over |
| 2025 W7 | Any TD | – | 21% TD chance | 21% / 34% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Long rec | 20.5 | 20 | 49% / 50% | 15 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Rec yds | 55.5 | 49 | 42% / 50% | 15 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 56% / 54% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Any TD | – | 34% TD chance | 34% / 39% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Long rec | 22.5 | 23 | 53% / 51% | 45 | over |
| 2025 W6 | Rec yds | 68.5 | 54 | 38% / 50% | 95 | over |
| 2025 W6 | Rec | 5.5 | 5 | 39% / 54% | 6 | over |
| 2025 W5 | Any TD | – | 31% TD chance | 31% / 42% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W5 | Long rec | 21.5 | 21 | 47% / 51% | 46 | over |
| 2025 W5 | Rec yds | 64.5 | 42 | 28% / 50% | 110 | over |
| 2025 W5 | Rec | 5.5 | 4 | 25% / 45% | 6 | over |
| 2025 W4 | Any TD | – | 32% TD chance | 32% / 35% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Long rec | 19.5 | 21 | 55% / 49% | 25 | over |
| 2025 W4 | Rec yds | 48.5 | 45 | 46% / 49% | 48 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 43% / 41% | 3 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Any TD | – | 22% TD chance | 22% / 30% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W3 | Long rec | 19.5 | 19 | 48% / 51% | 15 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Rec yds | 49.5 | 41 | 40% / 50% | 39 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 41% / 44% | 5 | over |
| 2025 W2 | Any TD | – | 27% TD chance | 27% / 33% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W2 | Long rec | 20.5 | 20 | 49% / 49% | 23 | over |
| 2025 W2 | Rec yds | 49.5 | 42 | 42% / 50% | 68 | over |
| 2025 W2 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 38% / 46% | 5 | over |
| 2025 W1 | Any TD | – | 27% TD chance | 27% / 35% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Long rec | 21.5 | 24 | 56% / 51% | 16 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Rec yds | 58.5 | 52 | 45% / 50% | 30 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 49% / 54% | 4 | under |
| 2024 W18 | Any TD | – | 20% TD chance | 20% / 28% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W18 | Rec yds | 33.5 | 36 | 53% / 50% | 44 | over |
| 2024 W18 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 67% / 58% | 4 | over |
| 2024 W15 | Any TD | – | 23% TD chance | 23% / 34% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W15 | Rec yds | 55.5 | 47 | 42% / 51% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W15 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 44% / 47% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W14 | Any TD | – | 26% TD chance | 26% / 34% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W14 | Rec yds | 46.5 | 41 | 44% / 50% | 99 | over |
| 2024 W14 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 46% / 54% | 9 | over |
| 2024 W13 | Any TD | – | 20% TD chance | 20% / 33% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W13 | Rec yds | 44.5 | 39 | 45% / 51% | 53 | over |
| 2024 W13 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 49% / 52% | 4 | over |
| 2024 W12 | Any TD | – | 23% TD chance | 23% / 30% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W12 | Rec yds | 40.5 | 37 | 46% / 51% | 144 | over |
| 2024 W12 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 38% / 45% | 8 | over |
| 2024 W11 | Any TD | – | 25% TD chance | 25% / 36% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W11 | Rec yds | 43.5 | 37 | 43% / 50% | 37 | under |
| 2024 W11 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 44% / 49% | 2 | under |
| 2024 W10 | Any TD | – | 26% TD chance | 26% / 37% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W10 | Rec yds | 43.5 | 41 | 47% / 51% | 57 | over |
| 2024 W10 | Rec | 3.5 | 3.5 | 50% / 53% | 3 | under |
| 2024 W9 | Any TD | – | 22% TD chance | 22% / 32% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W9 | Rec yds | 49.5 | 40 | 40% / 50% | -4 | under |
| 2024 W9 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 36% / 42% | 2 | under |
| 2024 W8 | Any TD | – | 28% TD chance | 28% / 36% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W8 | Rec yds | 53.5 | 47 | 44% / 50% | 45 | under |
| 2024 W8 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 38% / 44% | 4 | under |
| 2024 W7 | Any TD | – | 22% TD chance | 22% / 25% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W7 | Rec yds | 41.5 | 43 | 51% / 51% | 11 | under |
| 2024 W7 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 54% / 53% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W5 | Any TD | – | 22% TD chance | 22% / 25% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W5 | Rec yds | 36.5 | 40 | 55% / 50% | 46 | over |
| 2024 W5 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 56% / 47% | 4 | over |
| 2024 W4 | Any TD | – | 22% TD chance | 22% / 28% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W4 | Rec yds | 36.5 | 39 | 54% / 50% | 36 | under |
| 2024 W4 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 53% / 45% | 4 | over |
| 2024 W4 | Rush yds | 0.5 | 0 | 25% / 40% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W3 | Any TD | – | 23% TD chance | 23% / 27% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W3 | Rec yds | 43.5 | 44 | 51% / 50% | 26 | under |
| 2024 W3 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 58% / 55% | 4 | over |
| 2024 W3 | Rush yds | 0.5 | 0 | 31% / 41% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W2 | Any TD | – | 27% TD chance | 27% / 39% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W2 | Rec yds | 65.5 | 55 | 42% / 50% | 41 | under |
| 2024 W2 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 45% / 57% | 4 | under |
| 2024 W1 | Any TD | – | 29% TD chance | 29% / 41% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W1 | Rec yds | 66.5 | 55 | 41% / 52% | 109 | over |
| 2024 W1 | Rec | 5.5 | 4 | 30% / 46% | 5 | under |
| 2023 W16 | Any TD | – | 31% TD chance | 31% / 42% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W16 | Rec yds | 65.5 | 76 | 58% / 50% | 50 | under |
| 2023 W16 | Rec | 4.5 | 6 | 67% / 57% | 1 | under |
| 2023 W15 | Any TD | – | 30% TD chance | 30% / 43% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W15 | Rec yds | 67.5 | 61 | 44% / 50% | 142 | over |
| 2023 W15 | Rec | 5.5 | 5 | 45% / 50% | 8 | over |
| 2023 W14 | Any TD | – | 36% TD chance | 36% / 47% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W14 | Rec yds | 67.5 | 66 | 49% / 50% | 79 | over |
| 2023 W14 | Rec | 5.5 | 5 | 39% / 45% | 6 | over |
| 2023 W13 | Any TD | – | 32% TD chance | 32% / 45% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W13 | Rec yds | 66.5 | 67 | 51% / 51% | 52 | under |
| 2023 W13 | Rec | 5.5 | 5 | 40% / 44% | 5 | under |
| 2023 W12 | Any TD | – | 33% TD chance | 33% / 38% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W12 | Rec yds | 55.5 | 57 | 51% / 50% | 114 | over |
| 2023 W12 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 47% / 52% | 8 | over |
| 2023 W11 | Any TD | – | 39% TD chance | 39% / 47% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W11 | Rec yds | 64.5 | 67 | 52% / 50% | 55 | under |
| 2023 W11 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 55% / 58% | 4 | under |
| 2023 W9 | Any TD | – | 35% TD chance | 35% / 35% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W9 | Rec yds | 65.5 | 64 | 49% / 50% | 42 | under |
| 2023 W9 | Rec | 5.5 | 5 | 44% / 44% | 3 | under |
| 2023 W8 | Any TD | – | 34% TD chance | 34% / 42% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W8 | Rec yds | 61.5 | 52 | 41% / 50% | 121 | over |
| 2023 W8 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 48% / 54% | 7 | over |
| 2023 W7 | Any TD | – | 35% TD chance | 35% / 40% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W7 | Rec yds | 62.5 | 57 | 44% / 50% | 63 | over |
| 2023 W7 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 53% / 56% | 6 | over |
| 2023 W6 | Any TD | – | 41% TD chance | 41% / 47% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W6 | Rec yds | 63.5 | 47 | 36% / 50% | 51 | under |
| 2023 W6 | Rec | 4.5 | 3 | 30% / 50% | 7 | over |
| 2023 W5 | Any TD | – | 20% TD chance | 20% / 44% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W5 | Rec yds | 60.5 | 48 | 39% / 50% | 35 | under |
| 2023 W5 | Rec | 4.5 | 3 | 33% / 46% | 5 | over |
| 2023 W4 | Any TD | – | 14% TD chance | 14% / 40% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W4 | Rec yds | 62.5 | 34 | 24% / 50% | 46 | under |
| 2023 W4 | Rec | 4.5 | 3 | 20% / 48% | 4 | under |
| 2023 W2 | Any TD | – | 21% TD chance | 21% / 35% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W2 | Rec yds | 62.5 | 35 | 22% / 50% | 86 | over |
| 2023 W2 | Rec | 4.5 | 3 | 27% / 47% | 4 | under |
| 2023 W1 | Any TD | – | – | – / 43% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W1 | Rec yds | 71.5 | – | – / 50% | 78 | over |
| 2023 W1 | Rec | 5.5 | – | – / 42% | 4 | under |
Our calls
- 2026 W4 Under 58.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W4 Under 4.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W3 Under 59.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W3 Under 4.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W2 Under 54.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W2 Under 4.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2025 W17 Under 58.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W17 Over 58.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W17 Under 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W16 Over 53.5 rec yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W16 Over 53.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W15 Under 63.5 rec yds (Freezing, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W15 Over 63.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W15 Over 63.5 rec yds (Middle of the field, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W15 Under 63.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W14 Over 66.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W14 Under 66.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W14 Under 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Under 70.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W13 Over 70.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Under 5.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W11 Under 79.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W11 Over 79.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W10 Under 66.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W9 Over 22.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W9 Over 66.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W9 Under 66.5 rec yds (Short week, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W8 Over 61.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W8 Under 61.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W8 Under 61.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W7 Under 55.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W7 Under 55.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W7 Under 55.5 rec yds (Wind 15+ mph, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W6 Under 68.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W6 Under 68.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W6 Under 5.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W5 Over 64.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W5 Under 64.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W5 Over 64.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W5 Under 5.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W4 Over 19.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W4 Over 48.5 rec yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W4 Under 48.5 rec yds (Wind 15+ mph, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W3 Under 49.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W3 Over 49.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W3 Under 49.5 rec yds (Short week, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W2 Under 49.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W2 Under 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W1 Under 58.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W18 Under 33.5 rec yds (Middle of the field, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W18 Over 33.5 rec yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W18 Over 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W15 Under 55.5 rec yds (Middle of the field, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W15 Over 55.5 rec yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W15 Under 55.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W14 Over 46.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W14 Under 46.5 rec yds (Middle of the field, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W14 Over 46.5 rec yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W14 Under 46.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W14 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
For information and entertainment only; not betting advice. Lines are a pregame consensus of US sportsbooks via The Odds API and change quickly. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
How this works
Lines are the median across US books about an hour before kickoff. Projections are rolling-origin: made only from data before that week. Players who did not play are void.
Sources: The Odds API (US sportsbooks), nflverseFull methodology