RB · PIT · 246 lines since 2023

Jaylen Warren Player Props

Closing consensus lines for Jaylen Warren, what he did, and what our model projected before the game.

2026 Week 5

Anytime TD priced at 57% — we make it 56%
Line 11.5 yds longest rec — we project 12 (P(over) 54%)
Line 20.5 rec yds — we project 21 (P(over) 51%)
Line 2.5 receptions — we project 3 (P(over) 54%)
Line 17.5 rush attempts — we project 17 (P(over) 48%)
Line 99.5 rush + rec yds — we project 110 (P(over) 58%)
Line 73.5 rush yds — we project 86 (P(over) 61%)

Over/under record by market

Rushing yards over 27, under 25 (52 graded)
Receiving yards over 31, under 21 (52 graded)
Receptions over 28, under 22 (50 graded)
Anytime TD over 11, under 41 (52 graded)
Rush attempts over 7, under 9 (16 graded)
Longest reception over 9, under 7 (16 graded)

Our calls on him: model 54–65 · Missed tackles 13–17 · Short week 1–5 · Pre-snap motion 4–9 · Big underdog (6.5+) 0–1 · Starters out on defense 2–3 · Stacked boxes 1–0

Line vs actual vs our projection

Jaylen Warren prop line history
Week	Market	Line	We projected	P(over) us / market	Actual	Result
2026 W5	Any TD	–	56% TD chance	56% / 57%	–	…
2026 W5	Long rec	11.5	12	54% / 48%	–	…
2026 W5	Rec yds	20.5	21	51% / 50%	–	…
2026 W5	Rec	2.5	3	54% / 59%	–	…
2026 W5	Rush att	17.5	17	48% / 49%	–	…
2026 W5	Rush+rec yds	99.5	110	58% / 50%	–	…
2026 W5	Rush yds	73.5	86	61% / 50%	–	…
2026 W4	Any TD	–	50% TD chance	50% / 52%	0	under
2026 W4	Rec yds	26.5	17	32% / 51%	33	over
2026 W4	Rec	3.5	2	30% / 50%	3	under
2026 W4	Rush yds	75.5	81	54% / 50%	93	over
2026 W3	Any TD	–	55% TD chance	55% / 48%	0	under
2026 W3	Rec yds	26.5	16	30% / 50%	49	over
2026 W3	Rec	4.5	3	19% / 44%	3	under
2026 W3	Rush yds	57.5	66	59% / 50%	127	over
2026 W2	Any TD	–	29% TD chance	29% / 34%	0	under
2026 W2	Rec yds	18.5	10	29% / 51%	34	over
2026 W2	Rec	2.5	2	35% / 59%	2	under
2026 W2	Rush yds	41.5	35	40% / 50%	43	over
2026 W1	Any TD	–	48% TD chance	48% / 45%	0	under
2026 W1	Rec yds	19.5	13	35% / 50%	27	over
2026 W1	Rec	2.5	2	38% / 55%	5	over
2026 W1	Rush yds	42.5	57	67% / 50%	46	over
2025 W18	Any TD	–	34% TD chance	34% / 38%	0	under
2025 W18	Long rec	7.5	6.3	44% / 50%	17	over
2025 W18	Rec yds	11.5	8.5	40% / 50%	33	over
2025 W18	Rec	1.5	2	51% / 55%	5	over
2025 W18	Rush att	12.5	12	45% / 48%	14	over
2025 W18	Rush yds	47.5	47	50% / 50%	66	over
2025 W17	Any TD	–	43% TD chance	43% / 38%	0	under
2025 W17	Long rec	8.5	6.7	41% / 52%	0	under
2025 W17	Rec yds	11.5	9.1	42% / 51%	0	under
2025 W17	Rec	1.5	2	54% / 58%	0	under
2025 W17	Rush att	13.5	15	59% / 50%	12	under
2025 W17	Rush yds	54.5	63	59% / 50%	64	over
2025 W16	Any TD	–	45% TD chance	45% / 40%	1	over
2025 W16	Long rec	8.5	8.5	50% / 49%	6	under
2025 W16	Rec yds	11.5	12	52% / 50%	8	under
2025 W16	Rec	2.5	2	38% / 41%	2	under
2025 W16	Rush att	10.5	12	63% / 49%	14	over
2025 W16	Rush yds	40.5	48	59% / 51%	143	over
2025 W15	Any TD	–	47% TD chance	47% / 49%	0	under
2025 W15	Long rec	9.5	8.3	44% / 49%	10	over
2025 W15	Rec yds	13.5	11	44% / 51%	15	over
2025 W15	Rec	2.5	2	33% / 45%	3	over
2025 W15	Rush att	12.5	13	55% / 47%	12	under
2025 W15	Rush yds	48.5	54	57% / 49%	33	under
2025 W14	Any TD	–	44% TD chance	44% / 36%	1	over
2025 W14	Long rec	8.5	7.2	44% / 49%	38	over
2025 W14	Rec yds	11.5	10	46% / 50%	49	over
2025 W14	Rec	1.5	2	57% / 60%	3	over
2025 W14	Rush att	13.5	13	47% / 50%	8	under
2025 W14	Rush yds	50.5	49	47% / 50%	13	under
2025 W13	Any TD	–	42% TD chance	42% / 40%	1	over
2025 W13	Long rec	6.5	7.0	53% / 51%	7	over
2025 W13	Rec yds	8.5	9.9	54% / 50%	9	over
2025 W13	Rec	1.5	2	53% / 53%	2	over
2025 W13	Rush att	14.5	14	50% / 48%	10	under
2025 W13	Rush yds	62.5	60	47% / 51%	35	under
2025 W12	Any TD	–	41% TD chance	41% / 50%	1	over
2025 W12	Long rec	8.5	8.5	50% / 51%	0	under
2025 W12	Rec yds	14.5	13	46% / 50%	0	under
2025 W12	Rec	2.5	2	41% / 42%	0	under
2025 W12	Rush att	14.5	13	41% / 48%	18	over
2025 W12	Rush yds	61.5	56	45% / 50%	68	over
2025 W11	Any TD	–	49% TD chance	49% / 61%	0	under
2025 W11	Long rec	11.5	11	47% / 48%	6	under
2025 W11	Rec yds	16.5	16	49% / 50%	5	under
2025 W11	Rec	2.5	2	41% / 47%	2	under
2025 W11	Rush att	17.5	15	33% / 50%	10	under
2025 W11	Rush yds	81.5	70	40% / 50%	62	under
2025 W10	Any TD	–	42% TD chance	42% / 44%	0	under
2025 W10	Long rec	10.5	8.9	41% / 50%	18	over
2025 W10	Rec yds	17.5	13	40% / 50%	21	over
2025 W10	Rec	2.5	2	41% / 52%	2	under
2025 W10	Rush att	14.5	12	32% / 49%	14	under
2025 W10	Rush yds	59.5	48	36% / 50%	70	over
2025 W9	Any TD	–	47% TD chance	47% / 53%	1	over
2025 W9	Long rec	11.5	11	49% / 49%	0	under
2025 W9	Rec yds	20.5	19	47% / 50%	-2	under
2025 W9	Rec	3.5	3	33% / 42%	2	under
2025 W9	Rush att	14.5	13	40% / 48%	16	over
2025 W9	Rush yds	56.5	62	56% / 50%	31	under
2025 W8	Any TD	–	46% TD chance	46% / 45%	0	under
2025 W8	Long rec	11.5	11	47% / 49%	11	under
2025 W8	Rec yds	21.5	19	45% / 51%	11	under
2025 W8	Rec	3.5	3	35% / 43%	2	under
2025 W8	Rush att	14.5	13	39% / 50%	13	under
2025 W8	Rush yds	54.5	56	52% / 50%	62	over
2025 W7	Any TD	–	49% TD chance	49% / 57%	0	under
2025 W7	Long rec	11.5	12	51% / 51%	15	over
2025 W7	Rec yds	20.5	19	48% / 49%	31	over
2025 W7	Rec	2.5	2	50% / 56%	4	over
2025 W7	Rush att	12.5	13	54% / 49%	16	over
2025 W7	Rush yds	49.5	55	57% / 50%	127	over
2025 W6	Any TD	–	51% TD chance	51% / 48%	0	under
2025 W6	Long rec	10.5	11	54% / 50%	6	under
2025 W6	Rec yds	17.5	20	55% / 51%	11	under
2025 W6	Rec	2.5	3	57% / 53%	2	under
2025 W6	Rush att	14.5	13	41% / 47%	11	under
2025 W6	Rush yds	46.5	49	54% / 48%	52	over
2025 W3	Any TD	–	51% TD chance	51% / 51%	0	under
2025 W3	Long rec	11.5	11	47% / 49%	15	over
2025 W3	Rec yds	20.5	18	44% / 50%	34	over
2025 W3	Rec	2.5	2	47% / 54%	5	over
2025 W3	Rush att	13.5	14	55% / 56%	18	over
2025 W3	Rush yds	55.5	59	54% / 51%	47	under
2025 W2	Any TD	–	47% TD chance	47% / 45%	0	under
2025 W2	Long rec	9.5	9.1	48% / 50%	65	over
2025 W2	Rec yds	14.5	14	48% / 49%	86	over
2025 W2	Rec	2.5	2	42% / 39%	4	over
2025 W2	Rush att	12.5	13	54% / 51%	14	over
2025 W2	Rush yds	49.5	54	56% / 48%	48	under
2025 W1	Any TD	–	59% TD chance	59% / 38%	1	over
2025 W1	Long rec	10.5	10	49% / 51%	17	over
2025 W1	Rec yds	18.5	18	50% / 49%	22	over
2025 W1	Rec	2.5	3	56% / 54%	2	under
2025 W1	Rush att	12.5	16	74% / 51%	11	under
2025 W1	Rush yds	53.5	68	66% / 50%	37	under
2024 W18	Any TD	–	41% TD chance	41% / 33%	0	under
2024 W18	Rec yds	21.5	18	43% / 50%	0	under
2024 W18	Rec	2.5	3	51% / 60%	0	under
2024 W18	Rush yds	40.5	39	49% / 50%	21	under
2024 W17	Any TD	–	38% TD chance	38% / 29%	0	under
2024 W17	Rec yds	19.5	18	46% / 50%	41	over
2024 W17	Rec	2.5	3	55% / 56%	5	over
2024 W17	Rush yds	35.5	32	45% / 50%	71	over
2024 W16	Any TD	–	26% TD chance	26% / 25%	0	under
2024 W16	Rec yds	20.5	16	40% / 51%	44	over
2024 W16	Rec	3.5	3	32% / 41%	5	over
2024 W16	Rush yds	28.5	25	42% / 49%	48	over
2024 W15	Any TD	–	28% TD chance	28% / 28%	0	under
2024 W15	Rec yds	20.5	15	37% / 50%	3	under
2024 W15	Rec	3.5	3	31% / 41%	1	under
2024 W15	Rush yds	28.5	25	45% / 51%	12	under
2024 W14	Any TD	–	32% TD chance	32% / 31%	0	under
2024 W14	Rec yds	18.5	15	42% / 50%	25	over
2024 W14	Rec	2.5	2	45% / 53%	2	under
2024 W14	Rush yds	33.5	33	49% / 50%	47	over
2024 W13	Any TD	–	24% TD chance	24% / 28%	0	under
2024 W13	Rec yds	16.5	12	40% / 51%	55	over
2024 W13	Rec	2.5	2	41% / 50%	4	over
2024 W13	Rush yds	38.5	31	39% / 52%	9	under
2024 W12	Any TD	–	22% TD chance	22% / 28%	1	over
2024 W12	Rec yds	12.5	10	44% / 51%	19	over
2024 W12	Rec	2.5	2	35% / 41%	3	over
2024 W12	Rush yds	32.5	29	44% / 52%	45	over
2024 W11	Any TD	–	26% TD chance	26% / 30%	0	under
2024 W11	Rec yds	14.5	12	43% / 50%	27	over
2024 W11	Rec	2.5	2	37% / 42%	4	over
2024 W11	Rush yds	23.5	23	49% / 49%	41	over
2024 W10	Any TD	–	28% TD chance	28% / 25%	0	under
2024 W10	Rec yds	13.5	10	40% / 50%	29	over
2024 W10	Rec	2.5	2	34% / 39%	2	under
2024 W10	Rush yds	32.5	26	40% / 49%	66	over
2024 W8	Any TD	–	31% TD chance	31% / 26%	0	under
2024 W8	Rec yds	15.5	12	41% / 50%	13	under
2024 W8	Rec	2.5	2	43% / 43%	2	under
2024 W8	Rush yds	32.5	28	42% / 50%	46	over
2024 W7	Any TD	–	22% TD chance	22% / 20%	0	under
2024 W7	Rec yds	15.5	11	39% / 51%	15	under
2024 W7	Rec	2.5	2	44% / 43%	2	under
2024 W7	Rush yds	21.5	18	43% / 50%	44	over
2024 W6	Any TD	–	21% TD chance	21% / 23%	0	under
2024 W6	Rec yds	11.5	11	48% / 51%	11	under
2024 W6	Rec	1.5	2	62% / 57%	3	over
2024 W6	Rush yds	20.5	19	46% / 49%	7	under
2024 W4	Any TD	–	–	– / 25%	–	void
2024 W3	Any TD	–	25% TD chance	25% / 26%	0	under
2024 W3	Rec yds	14.5	13	47% / 50%	-4	under
2024 W3	Rec	2.5	2	49% / 45%	1	under
2024 W3	Rush yds	26.5	25	48% / 50%	5	under
2024 W2	Any TD	–	21% TD chance	21% / 25%	0	under
2024 W2	Rec yds	9.5	13	62% / 50%	19	over
2024 W2	Rush yds	18.5	24	60% / 49%	42	over
2024 W1	Any TD	–	25% TD chance	25% / 30%	0	under
2024 W1	Rec yds	12.5	14	55% / 50%	13	over
2024 W1	Rush yds	26.5	27	51% / 51%	7	under
2023 W18	Any TD	–	33% TD chance	33% / 34%	0	under
2023 W18	Rec yds	20.5	15	36% / 50%	17	under
2023 W18	Rec	3.5	3	36% / 46%	5	over
2023 W18	Rush yds	42.5	40	46% / 50%	33	under
2023 W17	Any TD	–	25% TD chance	25% / 35%	1	over
2023 W17	Rec yds	25.5	13	21% / 49%	23	under
2023 W17	Rec	3.5	2	29% / 51%	4	over
2023 W17	Rush yds	36.5	40	54% / 50%	75	over
2023 W16	Any TD	–	24% TD chance	24% / 38%	0	under
2023 W16	Rec yds	19.5	13	34% / 50%	30	over
2023 W16	Rec	3.5	2	29% / 42%	5	over
2023 W16	Rush yds	43.5	39	43% / 51%	24	under
2023 W15	Any TD	–	27% TD chance	27% / 42%	0	under
2023 W15	Rec yds	16.5	12	40% / 50%	28	over
2023 W15	Rec	2.5	2	42% / 59%	5	over
2023 W15	Rush yds	44.5	44	50% / 50%	40	under
2023 W14	Any TD	–	31% TD chance	31% / 37%	0	under
2023 W14	Rec yds	17.5	11	32% / 51%	29	over
2023 W14	Rec	2.5	2	39% / 52%	4	over
2023 W14	Rush yds	50.5	60	61% / 50%	11	under
2023 W13	Any TD	–	27% TD chance	27% / 48%	0	under
2023 W13	Rec yds	16.5	13	41% / 49%	-4	under
2023 W13	Rec	2.5	2	40% / 57%	1	under
2023 W13	Rush yds	59.5	53	44% / 50%	59	under
2023 W12	Any TD	–	21% TD chance	21% / 39%	0	under
2023 W12	Rec yds	18.5	13	36% / 50%	13	under
2023 W12	Rec	2.5	2	44% / 51%	3	over
2023 W12	Rush yds	53.5	44	40% / 52%	49	under
2023 W11	Any TD	–	13% TD chance	13% / 30%	1	over
2023 W11	Rec yds	18.5	9.9	27% / 49%	16	under
2023 W11	Rec	2.5	2	38% / 53%	3	over
2023 W11	Rush yds	40.5	27	30% / 50%	129	over
2023 W10	Any TD	–	19% TD chance	19% / 37%	1	over
2023 W10	Rec yds	21.5	13	32% / 48%	9	under
2023 W10	Rec	2.5	2	43% / 57%	2	under
2023 W10	Rush yds	33.5	29	43% / 50%	101	over
2023 W9	Any TD	–	21% TD chance	21% / 32%	0	under
2023 W9	Rec yds	20.5	13	34% / 49%	25	over
2023 W9	Rec	2.5	2	45% / 59%	3	over
2023 W9	Rush yds	25.5	22	44% / 51%	88	over
2023 W8	Any TD	–	21% TD chance	21% / 34%	0	under
2023 W8	Rec yds	18.5	17	47% / 50%	19	over
2023 W8	Rec	2.5	3	57% / 59%	4	over
2023 W8	Rush yds	24.5	19	41% / 50%	19	under
2023 W7	Any TD	–	18% TD chance	18% / 35%	1	over
2023 W7	Rec yds	20.5	20	48% / 49%	-1	under
2023 W7	Rec	2.5	3	65% / 59%	1	under
2023 W7	Rush yds	28.5	23	39% / 50%	32	over
2023 W5	Any TD	–	22% TD chance	22% / 25%	0	under
2023 W5	Rec yds	19.5	19	48% / 49%	39	over
2023 W5	Rec	2.5	4	68% / 57%	3	over
2023 W5	Rush yds	29.5	18	27% / 50%	40	over
2023 W4	Any TD	–	21% TD chance	21% / 37%	0	under
2023 W4	Rec yds	17.5	18	51% / 50%	26	over
2023 W4	Rec	2.5	3	57% / 54%	6	over
2023 W4	Rush yds	32.5	20	28% / 51%	29	under
2023 W3	Any TD	–	25% TD chance	25% / 38%	0	under
2023 W3	Rec yds	17.5	18	51% / 50%	23	over
2023 W3	Rec	2.5	3	59% / 55%	3	over
2023 W3	Rush yds	34.5	19	23% / 50%	29	under
2023 W2	Any TD	–	21% TD chance	21% / 27%	0	under
2023 W2	Rec yds	12.5	13	51% / 50%	66	over
2023 W2	Rec	1.5	3	75% / 60%	4	over
2023 W2	Rush yds	30.5	18	26% / 49%	20	under
2023 W1	Any TD	–	–	– / 27%	0	under
2023 W1	Rec yds	12.5	–	– / 50%	12	under
2023 W1	Rec	1.5	–	– / 60%	5	over
2023 W1	Rush yds	29.5	–	– / 50%	6	under

Our calls

2026 W4 Under 26.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
2026 W4 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
2026 W4 Over 75.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
2026 W4 Under 75.5 rush yds (Short week, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
2026 W3 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
2026 W3 Under 26.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
2026 W3 Under 4.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
2026 W3 Over 57.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
2026 W3 Over 57.5 rush yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
2026 W2 Under 18.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
2026 W2 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
2026 W2 Under 41.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
2026 W2 Under 41.5 rush yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
2026 W1 Under 19.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
2026 W1 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
2026 W1 Over 42.5 rush yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
2025 W18 Under 7.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W18 Under 11.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W18 Under 47.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ❌
2025 W17 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W17 Under 8.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W17 Under 11.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W17 Over 13.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W17 Over 54.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W17 Under 54.5 rush yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
2025 W16 Under 10.5 rush attempts (Big underdog (6.5+), backtest) ❌
2025 W16 Over 10.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W16 Under 40.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ❌
2025 W16 Over 40.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W16 Over 40.5 rush yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
2025 W15 Under 13.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W15 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W15 Over 12.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W15 Over 48.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W15 Over 48.5 rush yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
2025 W14 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W14 Under 8.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W13 Over 62.5 rush yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
2025 W12 Under 14.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W12 Over 61.5 rush yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
2025 W12 Under 61.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W12 Over 61.5 rush yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
2025 W11 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W11 Under 17.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W11 Over 81.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ❌
2025 W11 Under 81.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W11 Over 81.5 rush yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
2025 W10 Under 10.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W10 Under 17.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W10 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W10 Under 14.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W10 Under 59.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ❌
2025 W10 Under 59.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W9 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W9 Under 14.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W9 Over 56.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
2025 W8 Under 21.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W8 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W8 Under 14.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ✅
2025 W8 Under 54.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ❌

For information and entertainment only; not betting advice. Lines are a pregame consensus of US sportsbooks via The Odds API and change quickly. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

How this works

Lines are the median across US books about an hour before kickoff. Projections are rolling-origin: made only from data before that week. Players who did not play are void.

Sources: The Odds API (US sportsbooks), nflverseFull methodology