Edgehalla

RB · MIA · 57 lines since 2023

Jaylen Wright Player Props

Closing consensus lines for Jaylen Wright, what he did, and what our model projected before the game.

2026 Week 5

  • Anytime TD priced at 26% — we make it 21%
  • Line 23.5 rush yds — we project 20 (P(over) 43%)

Over/under record by market

  • Rushing yards over 6, under 7 (13 graded)
  • Receiving yards over 1, under 1 (2 graded)
  • Receptions over 0, under 2 (2 graded)
  • Anytime TD over 2, under 26 (28 graded)
  • Rush attempts over 1, under 1 (2 graded)
  • Longest reception over 1, under 0 (1 graded)

Our calls on him: model 11–6 · Missed tackles 4–5 · Big underdog (6.5+) 1–0 · Starters out on defense 2–2 · Short week 1–0

Line vs actual vs our projection

Jaylen Wright prop line history
WeekMarketLineWe projectedP(over) us / marketActualResult
2026 W5Any TD–21% TD chance21% / 26%–…
2026 W5Rush yds23.52043% / 50%–…
2026 W4Any TD–7% TD chance7% / 21%0under
2026 W4Rec yds5.5016% / 52%0under
2026 W4Rec1.506% / 35%0under
2026 W4Rush yds27.57.910% / 50%7under
2026 W2Any TD–9% TD chance9% / 8%0under
2026 W1Any TD–30% TD chance30% / 13%0under
2025 W18Any TD–21% TD chance21% / 38%0under
2025 W18Long rec8.51.221% / 52%13over
2025 W18Rec yds12.51.318% / 51%17over
2025 W18Rec2.517% / 42%2under
2025 W18Rush att14.51019% / 51%13under
2025 W18Rush yds55.53421% / 50%23under
2025 W17Any TD–14% TD chance14% / 13%0under
2025 W17Rush yds16.51647% / 51%56over
2025 W16Any TD–15% TD chance15% / 14%1over
2025 W16Rush att3.5566% / 55%9over
2025 W16Rush yds12.51761% / 51%35over
2025 W15Any TD–12% TD chance12% / 14%0under
2025 W15Rush yds17.51750% / 51%2under
2025 W14Any TD–8% TD chance8% / 7%1over
2025 W13Any TD–9% TD chance9% / 6%0under
2025 W11Any TD–11% TD chance11% / 9%0under
2025 W10Any TD–9% TD chance9% / 9%0under
2025 W9Any TD–8% TD chance8% / 7%–void
2025 W8Any TD–6% TD chance6% / 9%0under
2025 W7Any TD–5% TD chance5% / 3%0under
2025 W6Any TD–9% TD chance9% / 17%–void
2025 W5Any TD–9% TD chance9% / 7%–void
2025 W4Any TD–9% TD chance9% / 6%–void
2025 W3Any TD–8% TD chance8% / 9%–void
2024 W18Any TD–8% TD chance8% / 6%0under
2024 W17Any TD–6% TD chance6% / 6%0under
2024 W16Any TD–9% TD chance9% / 10%–void
2024 W15Any TD–11% TD chance11% / 9%0under
2024 W14Any TD–11% TD chance11% / 27%0under
2024 W14Rush yds20.51844% / 51%7under
2024 W13Any TD–12% TD chance12% / 11%0under
2024 W13Rush yds15.51550% / 50%0under
2024 W12Any TD–15% TD chance15% / 21%0under
2024 W12Rush yds20.51948% / 49%28over
2024 W11Any TD–14% TD chance14% / 18%0under
2024 W11Rush yds26.52139% / 50%4under
2024 W10Any TD–11% TD chance11% / 13%0under
2024 W10Rush yds14.51960% / 53%3under
2024 W9Any TD–11% TD chance11% / 12%0under
2024 W8Any TD–12% TD chance12% / 17%0under
2024 W7Any TD–10% TD chance10% / 15%0under
2024 W7Rush yds13.51657% / 49%33over
2024 W5Any TD–11% TD chance11% / 9%0under
2024 W4Any TD–8% TD chance8% / 11%0under
2024 W4Rush yds11.57.739% / 50%32over
2024 W3Any TD–8% TD chance8% / 12%0under
2024 W3Rush yds13.58.434% / 51%17over
2024 W2Any TD––– / 19%0under
2024 W1Any TD––– / 13%–void

Our calls

  • 2026 W4 Under 5.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
  • 2026 W4 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
  • 2026 W4 Under 27.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
  • 2026 W4 Under 27.5 rush yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
  • 2026 W1 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
  • 2025 W18 Under 8.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W18 Under 12.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W18 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2025 W18 Under 14.5 rush attempts (Big underdog (6.5+), backtest) ✅
  • 2025 W18 Under 14.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2025 W18 Under 55.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ✅
  • 2025 W18 Under 55.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2025 W16 Over 3.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2025 W16 Over 12.5 rush yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
  • 2025 W16 Over 12.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ✅
  • 2025 W16 Over 12.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2025 W15 Over 17.5 rush yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
  • 2024 W14 Over 20.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ❌
  • 2024 W14 Under 20.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2024 W13 Over 15.5 rush yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
  • 2024 W13 Over 15.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ❌
  • 2024 W13 Under 15.5 rush yds (Short week, backtest) ✅
  • 2024 W12 Under 20.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ❌
  • 2024 W11 Over 26.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ❌
  • 2024 W11 Under 26.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2024 W10 Over 14.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ❌
  • 2024 W10 Over 14.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2024 W7 Over 13.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ✅
  • 2024 W7 Over 13.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2024 W4 Over 11.5 rush yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
  • 2024 W4 Under 11.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2024 W3 Under 13.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌

For information and entertainment only; not betting advice. Lines are a pregame consensus of US sportsbooks via The Odds API and change quickly. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

How this works

Lines are the median across US books about an hour before kickoff. Projections are rolling-origin: made only from data before that week. Players who did not play are void.

Sources: The Odds API (US sportsbooks), nflverseFull methodology