Edgehalla

TE · WAS · 95 lines since 2023

John Bates Player Props

Closing consensus lines for John Bates, what he did, and what our model projected before the game.

2026 Week 5

  • Anytime TD priced at 8% — we make it 14%

Over/under record by market

  • Receiving yards over 6, under 12 (18 graded)
  • Receptions over 5, under 9 (14 graded)
  • Anytime TD over 1, under 53 (54 graded)
  • Longest reception over 3, under 4 (7 graded)

Our calls on him: model 22–13 · Starters out on defense 0–3 · Freezing 0–1 · Short week 1–1

Line vs actual vs our projection

John Bates prop line history
WeekMarketLineWe projectedP(over) us / marketActualResult
2026 W5Any TD–14% TD chance14% / 8%–…
2026 W4Any TD–13% TD chance13% / 7%0under
2026 W3Any TD–9% TD chance9% / 7%0under
2026 W2Any TD–17% TD chance17% / 16%0under
2026 W2Rec yds13.51245% / 51%0under
2026 W2Rec1.5144% / 58%0under
2026 W1Any TD–8% TD chance8% / 6%0under
2025 W18Any TD–5% TD chance5% / 9%1over
2025 W17Any TD–6% TD chance6% / 11%0under
2025 W17Long rec6.51.736% / 49%0under
2025 W17Rec yds6.51.838% / 54%0under
2025 W17Rec0.5154% / 66%0under
2025 W16Any TD–6% TD chance6% / 12%0under
2025 W16Long rec8.52.329% / 50%0under
2025 W16Rec yds10.52.428% / 51%0under
2025 W16Rec1.5123% / 47%0under
2025 W15Any TD–5% TD chance5% / 13%0under
2025 W15Long rec7.5028% / 52%19over
2025 W15Rec yds9.5026% / 49%19over
2025 W15Rec1.5016% / 38%1under
2025 W14Any TD–6% TD chance6% / 8%0under
2025 W14Long rec4.5037% / 51%0under
2025 W14Rec yds4.5038% / 51%0under
2025 W14Rec0.5050% / 60%0under
2025 W13Any TD–6% TD chance6% / 7%0under
2025 W13Long rec4.51.441% / 49%7over
2025 W13Rec yds4.51.442% / 49%9over
2025 W13Rec0.5153% / 58%2over
2025 W11Any TD–8% TD chance8% / 9%0under
2025 W11Long rec8.52.836% / 50%0under
2025 W11Rec yds10.53.134% / 48%0under
2025 W11Rec1.5124% / 42%0under
2025 W10Any TD–7% TD chance7% / 9%0under
2025 W9Any TD–8% TD chance8% / 9%0under
2025 W8Any TD–8% TD chance8% / 7%0under
2025 W7Any TD–10% TD chance10% / 9%0under
2025 W7Long rec4.5037% / 49%5over
2025 W7Rec yds4.5037% / 50%5over
2025 W7Rec0.5047% / 59%1over
2025 W6Any TD–9% TD chance9% / 7%0under
2025 W5Any TD–8% TD chance8% / 4%0under
2025 W3Any TD––– / 3%–void
2025 W2Any TD–5% TD chance5% / 4%0under
2025 W1Any TD–11% TD chance11% / 7%0under
2024 W18Any TD–7% TD chance7% / 8%0under
2024 W17Any TD–3% TD chance3% / 10%0under
2024 W16Any TD–4% TD chance4% / 8%0under
2024 W15Any TD–3% TD chance3% / 6%0under
2024 W13Any TD–2% TD chance2% / 8%0under
2024 W12Any TD–3% TD chance3% / 9%0under
2024 W11Any TD–3% TD chance3% / 6%0under
2024 W10Any TD–4% TD chance4% / 5%0under
2024 W9Any TD–3% TD chance3% / 7%0under
2024 W8Any TD–3% TD chance3% / 7%0under
2024 W7Any TD–4% TD chance4% / 8%0under
2024 W6Any TD–4% TD chance4% / 8%0under
2024 W5Any TD–6% TD chance6% / 7%0under
2024 W5Rec yds1.52.051% / 49%0under
2024 W4Any TD–5% TD chance5% / 10%0under
2024 W3Any TD–5% TD chance5% / 7%0under
2024 W3Rec yds2.50.444% / 51%0under
2024 W3Rec0.5151% / 54%0under
2024 W2Any TD–5% TD chance5% / 8%0under
2024 W1Any TD–6% TD chance6% / 5%0under
2023 W18Any TD–6% TD chance6% / 8%0under
2023 W18Rec yds6.53.641% / 51%0under
2023 W17Any TD–6% TD chance6% / 8%0under
2023 W16Any TD–3% TD chance3% / 7%0under
2023 W16Rec yds4.51.641% / 50%14over
2023 W16Rec0.5155% / 60%3over
2023 W15Any TD–4% TD chance4% / 9%0under
2023 W13Any TD–5% TD chance5% / 9%0under
2023 W13Rec yds6.53.140% / 49%0under
2023 W13Rec0.5159% / 63%0under
2023 W12Any TD–4% TD chance4% / 9%0under
2023 W12Rec yds6.53.640% / 51%0under
2023 W12Rec1.5129% / 35%0under
2023 W11Any TD–5% TD chance5% / 10%0under
2023 W11Rec yds8.55.742% / 51%15over
2023 W11Rec1.5131% / 39%2over
2023 W10Any TD–4% TD chance4% / 10%0under
2023 W9Any TD–5% TD chance5% / 11%0under
2023 W9Rec yds5.54.246% / 51%-5under
2023 W8Any TD–4% TD chance4% / 7%0under
2023 W7Any TD–5% TD chance5% / 7%0under
2023 W6Any TD–7% TD chance7% / 4%0under
2023 W6Any TD–7% TD chance7% / 8%0under
2023 W5Any TD–6% TD chance6% / 13%0under
2023 W5Rec yds5.58.156% / 50%19over
2023 W4Any TD–10% TD chance10% / 9%0under
2023 W3Any TD–20% TD chance20% / 17%0under
2023 W3Rec yds18.51951% / 50%12under
2023 W3Rec1.5269% / 62%2over
2023 W2Any TD–5% TD chance5% / 5%0under
2023 W1Any TD––– / 7%0under

Our calls

  • 2026 W4 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
  • 2026 W2 Under 13.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
  • 2026 W2 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
  • 2025 W17 Under 6.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2025 W17 Over 6.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W17 Under 6.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2025 W17 Under 0.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2025 W16 Under 8.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2025 W16 Under 10.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2025 W16 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2025 W15 Under 7.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W15 Under 9.5 rec yds (Freezing, backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W15 Under 9.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W15 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2025 W14 Under 4.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2025 W14 Under 4.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2025 W14 Under 0.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2025 W13 Under 4.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W13 Under 4.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W13 Under 0.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W11 Under 8.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2025 W11 Under 10.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2025 W11 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2025 W7 Under 4.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W7 Under 4.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2025 W7 Under 0.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2024 W5 Over 1.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
  • 2024 W3 Under 2.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2023 W18 Under 6.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2023 W16 Under 4.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2023 W16 Under 0.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2023 W13 Under 6.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2023 W12 Over 6.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
  • 2023 W12 Under 6.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2023 W12 Under 6.5 rec yds (Short week, backtest) ✅
  • 2023 W12 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2023 W11 Under 8.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2023 W11 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
  • 2023 W5 Over 5.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
  • 2023 W5 Under 5.5 rec yds (Short week, backtest) ❌
  • 2023 W3 Over 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅

For information and entertainment only; not betting advice. Lines are a pregame consensus of US sportsbooks via The Odds API and change quickly. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

How this works

Lines are the median across US books about an hour before kickoff. Projections are rolling-origin: made only from data before that week. Players who did not play are void.

Sources: The Odds API (US sportsbooks), nflverseFull methodology