TE · GB · 180 lines since 2023
Jonnu Smith Player Props
Closing consensus lines for Jonnu Smith, what he did, and what our model projected before the game.
2026 Week 5
- Anytime TD priced at 11% — we make it 8%
- Line 7.5 rec yds — we project 6.8 (P(over) 48%)
- Line 1.5 receptions — we project 1 (P(over) 36%)
Over/under record by market
- Rushing yards over 0, under 1 (1 graded)
- Receiving yards over 25, under 28 (53 graded)
- Receptions over 23, under 28 (51 graded)
- Anytime TD over 13, under 42 (55 graded)
- Longest reception over 3, under 14 (17 graded)
Our calls on him: Starters out on defense 6–1 · Short week 1–3 · model 37–25 · Freezing 2–2 · Pre-snap motion 9–5 · Wind 15+ mph 3–1 · Missed tackles 8–6 · Middle of the field 2–2 · Dome team outdoors 4–1
Line vs actual vs our projection
| Week | Market | Line | We projected | P(over) us / market | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 W5 | Any TD | – | 8% TD chance | 8% / 11% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rec yds | 7.5 | 6.8 | 48% / 50% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 36% / 35% | – | … |
| 2026 W4 | Any TD | – | 7% TD chance | 7% / 11% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W4 | Rec yds | 6.5 | 6.3 | 49% / 49% | 19 | over |
| 2026 W4 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 34% / 36% | 1 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Any TD | – | 6% TD chance | 6% / 14% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Rec yds | 8.5 | 7.0 | 46% / 50% | 16 | over |
| 2026 W3 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 33% / 38% | 2 | over |
| 2026 W2 | Any TD | – | 8% TD chance | 8% / 14% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Rec yds | 12.5 | 9.0 | 41% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 39% / 46% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Any TD | – | 13% TD chance | 13% / 11% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W18 | Any TD | – | 8% TD chance | 8% / 17% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W18 | Long rec | 9.5 | 8.3 | 44% / 50% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W18 | Rec yds | 15.5 | 11 | 40% / 51% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W18 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 32% / 46% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Any TD | – | 11% TD chance | 11% / 17% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Long rec | 6.5 | 8.3 | 57% / 52% | 8 | over |
| 2025 W17 | Rec yds | 7.5 | 11 | 59% / 51% | 18 | over |
| 2025 W17 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 48% / 38% | 5 | over |
| 2025 W16 | Any TD | – | 14% TD chance | 14% / 17% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Long rec | 8.5 | 10.0 | 56% / 52% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Rec yds | 11.5 | 14 | 56% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 58% / 46% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Any TD | – | 14% TD chance | 14% / 18% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Long rec | 8.5 | 11 | 56% / 48% | 10 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Rec yds | 10.5 | 15 | 59% / 51% | 12 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 57% / 52% | 2 | over |
| 2025 W14 | Any TD | – | 13% TD chance | 13% / 18% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Long rec | 10.5 | 11 | 50% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Rec yds | 16.5 | 16 | 49% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 42% / 40% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Any TD | – | 14% TD chance | 14% / 21% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Long rec | 10.5 | 9.9 | 47% / 52% | 6 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Rec yds | 16.5 | 15 | 46% / 49% | 6 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 37% / 40% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Any TD | – | 20% TD chance | 20% / 21% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Long rec | 11.5 | 12 | 54% / 51% | 8 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Rec yds | 17.5 | 21 | 56% / 50% | 21 | over |
| 2025 W12 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 50% / 43% | 3 | over |
| 2025 W11 | Any TD | – | 25% TD chance | 25% / 29% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Long rec | 12.5 | 15 | 59% / 49% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Rec yds | 20.5 | 25 | 59% / 51% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 54% / 58% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Any TD | – | 21% TD chance | 21% / 25% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Long rec | 12.5 | 12 | 50% / 51% | 4 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Rec yds | 24.5 | 22 | 46% / 50% | 4 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 55% / 59% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Any TD | – | 25% TD chance | 25% / 27% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Long rec | 12.5 | 15 | 60% / 51% | 12 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Rec yds | 25.5 | 28 | 54% / 50% | 25 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 44% / 42% | 3 | under |
| 2025 W8 | Any TD | – | 24% TD chance | 24% / 28% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W8 | Long rec | 13.5 | 15 | 56% / 50% | 10 | under |
| 2025 W8 | Rec yds | 27.5 | 30 | 53% / 48% | 17 | under |
| 2025 W8 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 50% / 49% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Any TD | – | 24% TD chance | 24% / 24% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W7 | Long rec | 13.5 | 15 | 56% / 51% | 10 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Rec yds | 28.5 | 28 | 49% / 50% | 28 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 43% / 48% | 3 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Any TD | – | 15% TD chance | 15% / 20% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Long rec | 13.5 | 13 | 49% / 50% | 7 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Rec yds | 25.5 | 25 | 49% / 50% | 18 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 46% / 41% | 3 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Any TD | – | 21% TD chance | 21% / 20% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Long rec | 14.5 | 13 | 44% / 50% | 6 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Rec yds | 29.5 | 25 | 42% / 50% | 6 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 45% / 46% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Any TD | – | 19% TD chance | 19% / 24% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Long rec | 14.5 | 15 | 50% / 50% | 21 | over |
| 2025 W3 | Rec yds | 29.5 | 28 | 47% / 49% | 23 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 47% / 45% | 3 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Any TD | – | 17% TD chance | 17% / 24% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Long rec | 14.5 | 14 | 50% / 49% | 10 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Rec yds | 29.5 | 28 | 48% / 50% | 27 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 45% / 50% | 4 | over |
| 2025 W1 | Any TD | – | 19% TD chance | 19% / 19% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W1 | Long rec | 14.5 | 16 | 54% / 49% | 6 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Rec yds | 26.5 | 32 | 58% / 51% | 15 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Rec | 2.5 | 4 | 72% / 58% | 5 | over |
| 2024 W18 | Any TD | – | 25% TD chance | 25% / 30% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W18 | Rec yds | 34.5 | 39 | 56% / 51% | 56 | over |
| 2024 W18 | Rec | 3.5 | 5 | 65% / 56% | 9 | over |
| 2024 W17 | Any TD | – | 19% TD chance | 19% / 24% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W17 | Rec yds | 36.5 | 38 | 51% / 50% | 26 | under |
| 2024 W17 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 65% / 53% | 3 | under |
| 2024 W16 | Any TD | – | 30% TD chance | 30% / 33% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W16 | Rec yds | 52.5 | 44 | 41% / 50% | 62 | over |
| 2024 W16 | Rec | 5.5 | 5 | 40% / 53% | 6 | over |
| 2024 W15 | Any TD | – | 25% TD chance | 25% / 32% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W15 | Rec yds | 45.5 | 41 | 43% / 50% | 48 | over |
| 2024 W15 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 43% / 52% | 9 | over |
| 2024 W15 | Rush yds | 0.5 | 0 | 10% / 11% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W14 | Any TD | – | 29% TD chance | 29% / 36% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W14 | Rec yds | 50.5 | 43 | 42% / 49% | 44 | under |
| 2024 W14 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 41% / 57% | 3 | under |
| 2024 W13 | Any TD | – | 26% TD chance | 26% / 31% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W13 | Rec yds | 49.5 | 37 | 36% / 51% | 113 | over |
| 2024 W13 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 37% / 54% | 10 | over |
| 2024 W12 | Any TD | – | 26% TD chance | 26% / 31% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W12 | Rec yds | 36.5 | 37 | 50% / 50% | 87 | over |
| 2024 W12 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 46% / 53% | 9 | over |
| 2024 W11 | Any TD | – | 19% TD chance | 19% / 27% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W11 | Rec yds | 31.5 | 30 | 47% / 49% | 101 | over |
| 2024 W11 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 37% / 42% | 6 | over |
| 2024 W10 | Any TD | – | 21% TD chance | 21% / 29% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W10 | Rec yds | 33.5 | 33 | 49% / 50% | 45 | over |
| 2024 W10 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 46% / 48% | 3 | under |
| 2024 W9 | Any TD | – | 19% TD chance | 19% / 25% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W9 | Rec yds | 28.5 | 31 | 54% / 50% | 46 | over |
| 2024 W9 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 46% / 41% | 5 | over |
| 2024 W8 | Any TD | – | 12% TD chance | 12% / 26% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W8 | Rec yds | 25.5 | 26 | 52% / 50% | 20 | under |
| 2024 W8 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 52% / 53% | 4 | over |
| 2024 W7 | Any TD | – | 7% TD chance | 7% / 20% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W7 | Rec yds | 18.5 | 18 | 49% / 51% | 96 | over |
| 2024 W7 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 38% / 43% | 7 | over |
| 2024 W5 | Any TD | – | 6% TD chance | 6% / 13% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W5 | Rec yds | 11.5 | 12 | 51% / 50% | 62 | over |
| 2024 W5 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 50% / 48% | 5 | over |
| 2024 W4 | Any TD | – | 9% TD chance | 9% / 14% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W4 | Rec yds | 15.5 | 13 | 45% / 49% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W4 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 54% / 62% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W3 | Any TD | – | 8% TD chance | 8% / 14% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W3 | Rec yds | 19.5 | 15 | 43% / 51% | 18 | under |
| 2024 W3 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 37% / 42% | 2 | under |
| 2024 W2 | Any TD | – | 11% TD chance | 11% / 17% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W2 | Rec yds | 14.5 | 12 | 44% / 51% | 53 | over |
| 2024 W2 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 44% / 55% | 6 | over |
| 2024 W1 | Any TD | – | 14% TD chance | 14% / 25% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W1 | Rec yds | 24.5 | 18 | 40% / 50% | 7 | under |
| 2024 W1 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 33% / 50% | 1 | under |
| 2023 W18 | Any TD | – | 12% TD chance | 12% / 19% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W18 | Rec yds | 20.5 | 19 | 47% / 51% | 29 | over |
| 2023 W18 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 42% / 48% | 3 | over |
| 2023 W17 | Any TD | – | 10% TD chance | 10% / 17% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W17 | Rec yds | 24.5 | 21 | 44% / 49% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W17 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 50% / 49% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W16 | Any TD | – | 13% TD chance | 13% / 21% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W16 | Rec yds | 23.5 | 23 | 49% / 49% | 32 | over |
| 2023 W16 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 46% / 46% | 4 | over |
| 2023 W15 | Any TD | – | 9% TD chance | 9% / 16% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W15 | Rec yds | 17.5 | 18 | 51% / 50% | 61 | over |
| 2023 W15 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 44% / 42% | 2 | under |
| 2023 W14 | Any TD | – | 15% TD chance | 15% / 17% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W14 | Rec yds | 14.5 | 21 | 62% / 50% | 27 | over |
| 2023 W14 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 69% / 60% | 4 | over |
| 2023 W13 | Any TD | – | 9% TD chance | 9% / 16% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W13 | Rec yds | 15.5 | 17 | 54% / 50% | 10 | under |
| 2023 W13 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 43% / 38% | 2 | under |
| 2023 W12 | Any TD | – | 13% TD chance | 13% / 22% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W12 | Rec yds | 26.5 | 23 | 45% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W12 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 50% / 58% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W10 | Any TD | – | 22% TD chance | 22% / 22% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W10 | Rec yds | 29.5 | 29 | 50% / 50% | 1 | under |
| 2023 W10 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 62% / 59% | 1 | under |
| 2023 W9 | Any TD | – | 22% TD chance | 22% / 19% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W9 | Rec yds | 26.5 | 29 | 55% / 50% | 100 | over |
| 2023 W9 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 65% / 57% | 5 | over |
| 2023 W8 | Any TD | – | 11% TD chance | 11% / 17% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W8 | Rec yds | 31.5 | 23 | 35% / 51% | 13 | under |
| 2023 W8 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 39% / 42% | 1 | under |
| 2023 W7 | Any TD | – | 9% TD chance | 9% / 19% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W7 | Rec yds | 30.5 | 21 | 34% / 50% | 27 | under |
| 2023 W7 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 36% / 43% | 3 | under |
| 2023 W6 | Any TD | – | 10% TD chance | 10% / 22% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W6 | Rec yds | 31.5 | 26 | 42% / 50% | 36 | over |
| 2023 W6 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 41% / 40% | 4 | over |
| 2023 W5 | Any TD | – | 13% TD chance | 13% / 22% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W5 | Rec yds | 29.5 | 33 | 55% / 49% | 67 | over |
| 2023 W5 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 67% / 58% | 6 | over |
| 2023 W4 | Any TD | – | 10% TD chance | 10% / 17% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W3 | Any TD | – | 13% TD chance | 13% / 13% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W3 | Rec yds | 10.5 | 19 | 66% / 50% | 37 | over |
| 2023 W2 | Any TD | – | 4% TD chance | 4% / 10% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W2 | Rec yds | 5.5 | 0 | 22% / 51% | 47 | over |
| 2023 W1 | Any TD | – | – | – / 13% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W1 | Rec yds | 9.5 | – | – / 51% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W1 | Rec | 1.5 | – | – / 41% | 0 | under |
Our calls
- 2026 W4 Over 6.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W3 Under 8.5 rec yds (Short week, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W2 Under 12.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W2 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2025 W18 Under 9.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W18 Under 15.5 rec yds (Freezing, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W18 Under 15.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W18 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W17 Over 6.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W17 Over 7.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W17 Under 7.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W17 Over 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W16 Over 11.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W16 Over 11.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W16 Over 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W15 Over 8.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W15 Under 10.5 rec yds (Freezing, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W15 Over 10.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W15 Over 10.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W15 Over 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W13 Over 16.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Under 16.5 rec yds (Wind 15+ mph, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W12 Over 17.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W12 Over 17.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W12 Over 17.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W12 Over 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W11 Over 12.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W11 Over 20.5 rec yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W11 Over 20.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W11 Over 20.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W11 Under 20.5 rec yds (Wind 15+ mph, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W9 Over 12.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W8 Over 13.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W8 Under 27.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W7 Over 13.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W7 Over 28.5 rec yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W7 Under 28.5 rec yds (Short week, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W6 Under 25.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W4 Under 14.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W4 Under 29.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W4 Under 29.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W3 Over 29.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W2 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W1 Over 14.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W1 Over 26.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W1 Over 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W18 Under 34.5 rec yds (Middle of the field, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W18 Over 34.5 rec yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W18 Over 34.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W18 Over 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W17 Under 36.5 rec yds (Wind 15+ mph, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W17 Over 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W16 Under 52.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W16 Under 5.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W15 Under 45.5 rec yds (Middle of the field, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W15 Over 45.5 rec yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W15 Under 45.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W15 Under 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W14 Under 50.5 rec yds (Middle of the field, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W14 Over 50.5 rec yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ❌
For information and entertainment only; not betting advice. Lines are a pregame consensus of US sportsbooks via The Odds API and change quickly. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
How this works
Lines are the median across US books about an hour before kickoff. Projections are rolling-origin: made only from data before that week. Players who did not play are void.
Sources: The Odds API (US sportsbooks), nflverseFull methodology