WR · IND · 172 lines since 2023
Josh Downs Player Props
Closing consensus lines for Josh Downs, what he did, and what our model projected before the game.
2026 Week 5
- Anytime TD priced at 29% — we make it 34%
- Line 21.5 yds longest rec — we project 24 (P(over) 57%)
- Line 54.5 rec yds — we project 66 (P(over) 60%)
- Line 4.5 receptions — we project 6 (P(over) 70%)
Over/under record by market
- Rushing yards over 0, under 1 (1 graded)
- Receiving yards over 27, under 23 (50 graded)
- Receptions over 27, under 22 (49 graded)
- Anytime TD over 11, under 40 (51 graded)
- Longest reception over 7, under 8 (15 graded)
Our calls on him: Middle of the field 1–5 · model 39–40 · Starters out on defense 2–3 · Dome team outdoors 10–6 · Pre-snap motion 7–8 · Missed tackles 4–2 · Wind 15+ mph 1–0 · Explosive plays 0–2
Line vs actual vs our projection
| Week | Market | Line | We projected | P(over) us / market | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 W5 | Any TD | – | 34% TD chance | 34% / 29% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Long rec | 21.5 | 24 | 57% / 49% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rec yds | 54.5 | 66 | 60% / 50% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rec | 4.5 | 6 | 70% / 55% | – | … |
| 2026 W4 | Any TD | – | 37% TD chance | 37% / 40% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W4 | Rec yds | 71.5 | 66 | 46% / 50% | 16 | under |
| 2026 W4 | Rec | 6.5 | 5 | 31% / 53% | 3 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Any TD | – | 30% TD chance | 30% / 29% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Rec yds | 50.5 | 50 | 50% / 51% | 77 | over |
| 2026 W3 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 55% / 55% | 5 | over |
| 2026 W2 | Any TD | – | 21% TD chance | 21% / 22% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Rec yds | 42.5 | 33 | 39% / 50% | 72 | over |
| 2026 W2 | Rec | 4.5 | 3 | 29% / 44% | 7 | over |
| 2026 W1 | Any TD | – | 34% TD chance | 34% / 26% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Rec yds | 46.5 | 47 | 51% / 50% | 37 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 46% / 44% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W18 | Any TD | – | 13% TD chance | 13% / 14% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Any TD | – | 26% TD chance | 26% / 25% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Long rec | 15.5 | 19 | 61% / 51% | 18 | over |
| 2025 W17 | Rec yds | 36.5 | 39 | 53% / 50% | 34 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 39% / 43% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Any TD | – | 21% TD chance | 21% / 22% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Long rec | 12.5 | 17 | 65% / 50% | 18 | over |
| 2025 W16 | Rec yds | 26.5 | 32 | 57% / 51% | 65 | over |
| 2025 W16 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 45% / 45% | 5 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Any TD | – | 13% TD chance | 13% / 13% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Long rec | 12.5 | 13 | 53% / 51% | 8 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Rec yds | 20.5 | 26 | 60% / 50% | 13 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 67% / 55% | 3 | over |
| 2025 W14 | Any TD | – | 22% TD chance | 22% / 23% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Long rec | 14.5 | 19 | 65% / 51% | 12 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Rec yds | 33.5 | 39 | 55% / 50% | 23 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 51% / 53% | 4 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Any TD | – | 24% TD chance | 24% / 24% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Long rec | 15.5 | 18 | 60% / 48% | 34 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Rec yds | 31.5 | 35 | 55% / 51% | 44 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 50% / 50% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Any TD | – | 22% TD chance | 22% / 21% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Long rec | 14.5 | 18 | 60% / 52% | 6 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Rec yds | 33.5 | 35 | 52% / 50% | 10 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 50% / 50% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Any TD | – | 27% TD chance | 27% / 26% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Long rec | 16.5 | 21 | 64% / 50% | 3 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Rec yds | 37.5 | 43 | 56% / 50% | 3 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 40% / 41% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Any TD | – | 25% TD chance | 25% / 25% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W9 | Long rec | 16.5 | 21 | 63% / 49% | 17 | over |
| 2025 W9 | Rec yds | 36.5 | 41 | 56% / 50% | 57 | over |
| 2025 W9 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 54% / 57% | 6 | over |
| 2025 W8 | Any TD | – | 30% TD chance | 30% / 25% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W8 | Long rec | 15.5 | 21 | 69% / 50% | 18 | over |
| 2025 W8 | Rec yds | 35.5 | 44 | 59% / 52% | 39 | over |
| 2025 W8 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 52% / 55% | 3 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Any TD | – | 24% TD chance | 24% / 25% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W6 | Long rec | 16.5 | 22 | 67% / 49% | 11 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Rec yds | 36.5 | 47 | 62% / 50% | 42 | over |
| 2025 W6 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 59% / 56% | 6 | over |
| 2025 W5 | Any TD | – | 27% TD chance | 27% / 27% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Long rec | 16.5 | 21 | 65% / 50% | 12 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Rec yds | 36.5 | 47 | 61% / 50% | 54 | over |
| 2025 W5 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 58% / 51% | 6 | over |
| 2025 W4 | Any TD | – | 21% TD chance | 21% / 22% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Long rec | 17.5 | 21 | 61% / 49% | 8 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Rec yds | 39.5 | 47 | 59% / 50% | 24 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 62% / 55% | 4 | over |
| 2025 W3 | Any TD | – | 23% TD chance | 23% / 24% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Long rec | 17.5 | 20 | 59% / 49% | 29 | over |
| 2025 W3 | Rec yds | 40.5 | 40 | 50% / 50% | 34 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 36% / 42% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Any TD | – | 18% TD chance | 18% / 21% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Long rec | 16.5 | 17 | 53% / 50% | 19 | over |
| 2025 W2 | Rec yds | 36.5 | 33 | 46% / 50% | 51 | over |
| 2025 W2 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 46% / 53% | 6 | over |
| 2025 W1 | Any TD | – | 33% TD chance | 33% / 25% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Long rec | 17.5 | 25 | 73% / 51% | 6 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Rec yds | 46.5 | 64 | 65% / 50% | 12 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 61% / 55% | 2 | under |
| 2024 W18 | Any TD | – | 22% TD chance | 22% / 32% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W18 | Rec yds | 55.5 | 43 | 37% / 51% | 94 | over |
| 2024 W18 | Rec | 5.5 | 4 | 21% / 47% | 10 | over |
| 2024 W17 | Any TD | – | 26% TD chance | 26% / 36% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W17 | Rec yds | 62.5 | 46 | 33% / 50% | 22 | under |
| 2024 W17 | Rec | 5.5 | 4 | 24% / 56% | 3 | under |
| 2024 W17 | Rush yds | 0.5 | 0 | 6% / 10% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W16 | Any TD | – | 27% TD chance | 27% / 30% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W16 | Rec yds | 48.5 | 52 | 55% / 50% | 61 | over |
| 2024 W16 | Rec | 3.5 | 5 | 66% / 59% | 3 | under |
| 2024 W15 | Any TD | – | 21% TD chance | 21% / 27% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W15 | Rec yds | 49.5 | 39 | 39% / 50% | 32 | under |
| 2024 W15 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 39% / 43% | 3 | under |
| 2024 W12 | Any TD | – | 27% TD chance | 27% / 27% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W12 | Rec yds | 56.5 | 51 | 44% / 50% | 27 | under |
| 2024 W12 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 51% / 52% | 3 | under |
| 2024 W11 | Any TD | – | 25% TD chance | 25% / 27% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W11 | Rec yds | 45.5 | 47 | 52% / 49% | 84 | over |
| 2024 W11 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 51% / 42% | 5 | over |
| 2024 W10 | Any TD | – | 30% TD chance | 30% / 33% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W10 | Rec yds | 66.5 | 60 | 43% / 50% | 72 | over |
| 2024 W10 | Rec | 6.5 | 5 | 36% / 46% | 7 | over |
| 2024 W9 | Any TD | – | 19% TD chance | 19% / 33% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W9 | Rec yds | 66.5 | 46 | 31% / 51% | 60 | under |
| 2024 W9 | Rec | 5.5 | 4 | 33% / 58% | 6 | over |
| 2024 W8 | Any TD | – | 21% TD chance | 21% / 23% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W8 | Rec yds | 37.5 | 39 | 52% / 51% | 109 | over |
| 2024 W8 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 61% / 52% | 4 | over |
| 2024 W7 | Any TD | – | 29% TD chance | 29% / 27% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W7 | Rec yds | 49.5 | 50 | 50% / 50% | 3 | under |
| 2024 W7 | Rec | 3.5 | 5 | 68% / 59% | 1 | under |
| 2024 W6 | Any TD | – | 20% TD chance | 20% / 28% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W6 | Rec yds | 49.5 | 42 | 40% / 51% | 66 | over |
| 2024 W6 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 48% / 52% | 7 | over |
| 2024 W5 | Any TD | – | 17% TD chance | 17% / 28% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W5 | Rec yds | 50.5 | 40 | 36% / 50% | 69 | over |
| 2024 W5 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 39% / 57% | 9 | over |
| 2024 W4 | Any TD | – | 13% TD chance | 13% / 20% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W4 | Rec yds | 33.5 | 26 | 38% / 51% | 82 | over |
| 2024 W4 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 34% / 42% | 8 | over |
| 2024 W3 | Any TD | – | 17% TD chance | 17% / 22% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W3 | Rec yds | 30.5 | 32 | 51% / 49% | 22 | under |
| 2024 W3 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 59% / 54% | 3 | over |
| 2024 W2 | Any TD | – | 14% TD chance | 14% / 16% | – | void |
| 2024 W1 | Any TD | – | – | – / 20% | – | void |
| 2023 W18 | Any TD | – | 19% TD chance | 19% / 26% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W18 | Rec yds | 38.5 | 39 | 50% / 53% | 48 | over |
| 2023 W18 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 49% / 56% | 3 | under |
| 2023 W17 | Any TD | – | 20% TD chance | 20% / 30% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W17 | Rec yds | 37.5 | 52 | 64% / 50% | 53 | over |
| 2023 W17 | Rec | 3.5 | 5 | 66% / 54% | 2 | under |
| 2023 W16 | Any TD | – | 21% TD chance | 21% / 33% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W16 | Rec yds | 45.5 | 40 | 43% / 50% | 39 | under |
| 2023 W16 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 37% / 50% | 6 | over |
| 2023 W15 | Any TD | – | 19% TD chance | 19% / 29% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W15 | Rec yds | 45.5 | 39 | 42% / 50% | 19 | under |
| 2023 W15 | Rec | 4.5 | 3 | 33% / 44% | 3 | under |
| 2023 W14 | Any TD | – | 17% TD chance | 17% / 28% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W14 | Rec yds | 41.5 | 39 | 47% / 50% | 32 | under |
| 2023 W14 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 33% / 44% | 3 | under |
| 2023 W13 | Any TD | – | 20% TD chance | 20% / 31% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W13 | Rec yds | 51.5 | 42 | 40% / 50% | 14 | under |
| 2023 W13 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 37% / 55% | 3 | under |
| 2023 W12 | Any TD | – | 18% TD chance | 18% / 33% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W12 | Rec yds | 49.5 | 42 | 43% / 50% | 43 | under |
| 2023 W12 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 36% / 45% | 5 | over |
| 2023 W10 | Any TD | – | 15% TD chance | 15% / 27% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W10 | Rec yds | 36.5 | 39 | 52% / 49% | 40 | over |
| 2023 W10 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 52% / 46% | 2 | under |
| 2023 W9 | Any TD | – | 16% TD chance | 16% / 31% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W9 | Rec yds | 50.5 | 41 | 40% / 49% | 10 | under |
| 2023 W9 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 37% / 49% | 1 | under |
| 2023 W8 | Any TD | – | 20% TD chance | 20% / 27% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W8 | Rec yds | 48.5 | 43 | 44% / 50% | 72 | over |
| 2023 W8 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 43% / 50% | 7 | over |
| 2023 W7 | Any TD | – | 17% TD chance | 17% / 23% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W7 | Rec yds | 38.5 | 32 | 42% / 51% | 125 | over |
| 2023 W7 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 51% / 58% | 5 | over |
| 2023 W6 | Any TD | – | 15% TD chance | 15% / 26% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W6 | Rec yds | 46.5 | 41 | 44% / 51% | 21 | under |
| 2023 W6 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 42% / 43% | 5 | over |
| 2023 W5 | Any TD | – | 17% TD chance | 17% / 21% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W5 | Rec yds | 34.5 | 38 | 54% / 49% | 97 | over |
| 2023 W5 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 52% / 44% | 6 | over |
| 2023 W4 | Any TD | – | 18% TD chance | 18% / 24% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W4 | Rec yds | 32.5 | 41 | 60% / 50% | 34 | over |
| 2023 W4 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 56% / 50% | 2 | under |
| 2023 W3 | Any TD | – | 21% TD chance | 21% / 20% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W3 | Rec yds | 33.5 | 30 | 45% / 50% | 57 | over |
| 2023 W3 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 40% / 47% | 8 | over |
| 2023 W2 | Any TD | – | 18% TD chance | 18% / 22% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W2 | Rec yds | 29.5 | 32 | 54% / 49% | 37 | over |
| 2023 W2 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 60% / 54% | 4 | over |
| 2023 W1 | Any TD | – | – | – / 19% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W1 | Rec yds | 18.5 | – | – / 50% | 30 | over |
Our calls
- 2026 W4 Over 71.5 rec yds (Middle of the field, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W4 Under 6.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W2 Under 42.5 rec yds (Middle of the field, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W2 Under 42.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W2 Under 4.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W1 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2025 W17 Over 15.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W17 Over 36.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W16 Over 12.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W16 Over 26.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W16 Over 26.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W15 Under 20.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W15 Over 20.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W15 Under 20.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W15 Over 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W14 Over 14.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W14 Under 33.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W14 Over 33.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Over 15.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W13 Under 31.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W12 Over 14.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W12 Under 33.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W12 Under 33.5 rec yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W10 Over 16.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W10 Over 37.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W10 Under 37.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W9 Over 16.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W9 Under 36.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W9 Over 36.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W9 Over 36.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W8 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W8 Over 15.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W8 Over 35.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W6 Over 16.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W6 Over 36.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W6 Under 36.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W5 Over 16.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W5 Over 36.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W5 Over 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W4 Over 17.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W4 Under 39.5 rec yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W4 Over 39.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W4 Under 39.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W4 Over 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W3 Over 17.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W3 Under 40.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W3 Over 40.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W3 Under 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W2 Under 36.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W2 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W1 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W1 Over 17.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W1 Over 46.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W1 Over 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W18 Under 55.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W18 Over 55.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W18 Under 5.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W17 Under 62.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W17 Under 62.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W17 Under 5.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
For information and entertainment only; not betting advice. Lines are a pregame consensus of US sportsbooks via The Odds API and change quickly. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
How this works
Lines are the median across US books about an hour before kickoff. Projections are rolling-origin: made only from data before that week. Players who did not play are void.
Sources: The Odds API (US sportsbooks), nflverseFull methodology