TE · NO · 174 lines since 2023
Juwan Johnson Player Props
Closing consensus lines for Juwan Johnson, what he did, and what our model projected before the game.
2026 Week 5
- Anytime TD priced at 25% — we make it 27%
- Line 18.5 yds longest rec — we project 17 (P(over) 45%)
- Line 42.5 rec yds — we project 37 (P(over) 43%)
- Line 3.5 receptions — we project 4 (P(over) 60%)
Over/under record by market
- Receiving yards over 30, under 19 (49 graded)
- Receptions over 27, under 22 (49 graded)
- Anytime TD over 14, under 39 (53 graded)
- Longest reception over 10, under 6 (16 graded)
Our calls on him: model 32–39 · Pre-snap motion 3–5 · Dome team outdoors 6–10 · Wind 15+ mph 0–1 · Missed tackles 1–0 · Starters out on defense 7–3 · Short week 1–1
Line vs actual vs our projection
| Week | Market | Line | We projected | P(over) us / market | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 W5 | Any TD | – | 27% TD chance | 27% / 25% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Long rec | 18.5 | 17 | 45% / 50% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rec yds | 42.5 | 37 | 43% / 50% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 60% / 57% | – | … |
| 2026 W4 | Any TD | – | 32% TD chance | 32% / 32% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W4 | Rec yds | 47.5 | 38 | 40% / 50% | 59 | over |
| 2026 W4 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 38% / 43% | 6 | over |
| 2026 W3 | Any TD | – | 27% TD chance | 27% / 26% | 1 | over |
| 2026 W3 | Rec yds | 35.5 | 32 | 44% / 50% | 53 | over |
| 2026 W3 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 41% / 48% | 8 | over |
| 2026 W2 | Any TD | – | 21% TD chance | 21% / 22% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Rec yds | 36.5 | 31 | 41% / 50% | 66 | over |
| 2026 W2 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 45% / 54% | 4 | over |
| 2026 W1 | Any TD | – | 31% TD chance | 31% / 30% | 1 | over |
| 2026 W1 | Rec yds | 42.5 | 49 | 56% / 50% | 54 | over |
| 2026 W1 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 56% / 43% | 3 | under |
| 2025 W18 | Any TD | – | 29% TD chance | 29% / 37% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W18 | Long rec | 19.5 | 21 | 55% / 51% | 28 | over |
| 2025 W18 | Rec yds | 58.5 | 58 | 50% / 50% | 61 | over |
| 2025 W18 | Rec | 5.5 | 6 | 59% / 49% | 3 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Any TD | – | 28% TD chance | 28% / 34% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Long rec | 17.5 | 19 | 54% / 50% | 39 | over |
| 2025 W17 | Rec yds | 45.5 | 44 | 49% / 50% | 95 | over |
| 2025 W17 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 56% / 49% | 4 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Any TD | – | 25% TD chance | 25% / 32% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Long rec | 15.5 | 19 | 60% / 50% | 31 | over |
| 2025 W16 | Rec yds | 37.5 | 40 | 53% / 51% | 89 | over |
| 2025 W16 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 44% / 42% | 8 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Any TD | – | 21% TD chance | 21% / 26% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Long rec | 16.5 | 18 | 55% / 49% | 12 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Rec yds | 36.5 | 39 | 54% / 50% | 30 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 62% / 56% | 4 | over |
| 2025 W14 | Any TD | – | 21% TD chance | 21% / 23% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Long rec | 16.5 | 17 | 53% / 52% | 12 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Rec yds | 40.5 | 43 | 52% / 50% | 38 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 55% / 43% | 4 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Any TD | – | 23% TD chance | 23% / 22% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Long rec | 17.5 | 18 | 52% / 51% | 11 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Rec yds | 41.5 | 41 | 50% / 50% | 39 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Rec | 4.5 | 5 | 52% / 42% | 5 | over |
| 2025 W12 | Any TD | – | 29% TD chance | 29% / 30% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Long rec | 16.5 | 20 | 62% / 52% | 16 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Rec yds | 40.5 | 47 | 56% / 50% | 46 | over |
| 2025 W12 | Rec | 3.5 | 5 | 66% / 56% | 6 | over |
| 2025 W10 | Any TD | – | 19% TD chance | 19% / 24% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W10 | Long rec | 16.5 | 16 | 47% / 49% | 52 | over |
| 2025 W10 | Rec yds | 37.5 | 35 | 47% / 50% | 92 | over |
| 2025 W10 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 64% / 53% | 4 | over |
| 2025 W9 | Any TD | – | 15% TD chance | 15% / 18% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W9 | Long rec | 14.5 | 14 | 47% / 49% | 12 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Rec yds | 35.5 | 28 | 40% / 51% | 31 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Rec | 3.5 | 4 | 53% / 56% | 3 | under |
| 2025 W8 | Any TD | – | 21% TD chance | 21% / 26% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W8 | Long rec | 15.5 | 16 | 53% / 52% | 16 | over |
| 2025 W8 | Rec yds | 38.5 | 32 | 41% / 50% | 53 | over |
| 2025 W8 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 46% / 58% | 5 | over |
| 2025 W7 | Any TD | – | 16% TD chance | 16% / 22% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Long rec | 13.5 | 14 | 51% / 51% | 29 | over |
| 2025 W7 | Rec yds | 26.5 | 24 | 46% / 49% | 79 | over |
| 2025 W7 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 38% / 46% | 5 | over |
| 2025 W6 | Any TD | – | 21% TD chance | 21% / 27% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Long rec | 16.5 | 16 | 46% / 49% | 13 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Rec yds | 36.5 | 29 | 39% / 50% | 15 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 44% / 54% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Any TD | – | 22% TD chance | 22% / 26% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Long rec | 15.5 | 16 | 52% / 52% | 19 | over |
| 2025 W5 | Rec yds | 35.5 | 30 | 43% / 49% | 17 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 46% / 48% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Any TD | – | 17% TD chance | 17% / 25% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Long rec | 16.5 | 15 | 41% / 50% | 17 | over |
| 2025 W4 | Rec yds | 42.5 | 29 | 31% / 50% | 28 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 36% / 56% | 3 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Any TD | – | 21% TD chance | 21% / 24% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Long rec | 16.5 | 15 | 42% / 51% | 21 | over |
| 2025 W3 | Rec yds | 41.5 | 32 | 37% / 51% | 51 | over |
| 2025 W3 | Rec | 4.5 | 4 | 40% / 49% | 6 | over |
| 2025 W2 | Any TD | – | 20% TD chance | 20% / 22% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W2 | Long rec | 15.5 | 13 | 41% / 48% | 18 | over |
| 2025 W2 | Rec yds | 37.5 | 23 | 29% / 49% | 49 | over |
| 2025 W2 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 38% / 57% | 5 | over |
| 2025 W1 | Any TD | – | 16% TD chance | 16% / 19% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Rec yds | 25.5 | 30 | 56% / 51% | 76 | over |
| 2025 W1 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 65% / 54% | 8 | over |
| 2024 W18 | Any TD | – | 13% TD chance | 13% / 18% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W18 | Rec yds | 29.5 | 19 | 32% / 49% | 80 | over |
| 2024 W18 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 33% / 47% | 6 | over |
| 2024 W17 | Any TD | – | 16% TD chance | 16% / 15% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W17 | Rec yds | 26.5 | 18 | 36% / 50% | 66 | over |
| 2024 W17 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 48% / 59% | 6 | over |
| 2024 W16 | Any TD | – | 14% TD chance | 14% / 17% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W16 | Rec yds | 34.5 | 21 | 29% / 50% | 27 | under |
| 2024 W16 | Rec | 3.5 | 3 | 40% / 47% | 2 | under |
| 2024 W15 | Any TD | – | 14% TD chance | 14% / 18% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W15 | Rec yds | 35.5 | 18 | 24% / 48% | 12 | under |
| 2024 W15 | Rec | 3.5 | 2 | 27% / 49% | 2 | under |
| 2024 W14 | Any TD | – | 17% TD chance | 17% / 23% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W14 | Rec yds | 32.5 | 22 | 34% / 51% | 50 | over |
| 2024 W14 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 47% / 61% | 4 | over |
| 2024 W13 | Any TD | – | 12% TD chance | 12% / 20% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W13 | Rec yds | 25.5 | 20 | 40% / 49% | 36 | over |
| 2024 W13 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 41% / 46% | 5 | over |
| 2024 W11 | Any TD | – | 9% TD chance | 9% / 22% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W11 | Rec yds | 26.5 | 16 | 33% / 50% | 30 | over |
| 2024 W11 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 37% / 51% | 3 | over |
| 2024 W10 | Any TD | – | 13% TD chance | 13% / 21% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W10 | Rec yds | 31.5 | 24 | 38% / 50% | 22 | under |
| 2024 W10 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 50% / 60% | 2 | under |
| 2024 W9 | Any TD | – | 12% TD chance | 12% / 27% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W9 | Rec yds | 24.5 | 21 | 46% / 50% | 41 | over |
| 2024 W9 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 41% / 48% | 2 | under |
| 2024 W8 | Any TD | – | 16% TD chance | 16% / 18% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W8 | Rec yds | 19.5 | 17 | 44% / 51% | 48 | over |
| 2024 W8 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 44% / 42% | 3 | over |
| 2024 W7 | Any TD | – | 18% TD chance | 18% / 20% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W7 | Rec yds | 28.5 | 20 | 34% / 51% | 18 | under |
| 2024 W7 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 48% / 58% | 3 | over |
| 2024 W6 | Any TD | – | 9% TD chance | 9% / 20% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W6 | Rec yds | 21.5 | 15 | 38% / 49% | 48 | over |
| 2024 W6 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 37% / 46% | 3 | over |
| 2024 W5 | Any TD | – | 9% TD chance | 9% / 18% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W5 | Rec yds | 22.5 | 12 | 31% / 51% | 31 | over |
| 2024 W5 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 26% / 42% | 5 | over |
| 2024 W4 | Any TD | – | 13% TD chance | 13% / 15% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W3 | Any TD | – | 15% TD chance | 15% / 22% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W3 | Rec yds | 22.5 | 19 | 45% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W3 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 35% / 43% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W2 | Any TD | – | 13% TD chance | 13% / 21% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W2 | Rec yds | 21.5 | 19 | 46% / 47% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W2 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 42% / 40% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W1 | Any TD | – | 22% TD chance | 22% / 21% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W1 | Rec yds | 24.5 | 24 | 49% / 49% | 26 | over |
| 2024 W1 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 51% / 50% | 2 | under |
| 2023 W18 | Any TD | – | 27% TD chance | 27% / 26% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W17 | Any TD | – | 22% TD chance | 22% / 18% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W17 | Rec yds | 20.5 | 22 | 52% / 51% | 90 | over |
| 2023 W17 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 71% / 64% | 8 | over |
| 2023 W16 | Any TD | – | 20% TD chance | 20% / 17% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W16 | Any TD | – | 20% TD chance | 20% / 3% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W16 | Rec yds | 20.5 | 22 | 53% / 49% | 48 | over |
| 2023 W16 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 48% / 39% | 4 | over |
| 2023 W15 | Any TD | – | 24% TD chance | 24% / 20% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W15 | Rec yds | 21.5 | 24 | 55% / 49% | 38 | over |
| 2023 W15 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 50% / 40% | 2 | under |
| 2023 W14 | Any TD | – | 22% TD chance | 22% / 24% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W14 | Rec yds | 28.5 | 19 | 35% / 50% | 10 | under |
| 2023 W14 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 40% / 55% | 2 | under |
| 2023 W13 | Any TD | – | 24% TD chance | 24% / 23% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W13 | Rec yds | 29.5 | 27 | 47% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W13 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 60% / 57% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W12 | Any TD | – | 23% TD chance | 23% / 22% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W12 | Rec yds | 21.5 | 17 | 41% / 50% | 45 | over |
| 2023 W12 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 39% / 46% | 4 | over |
| 2023 W10 | Any TD | – | 23% TD chance | 23% / 22% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W10 | Rec yds | 23.5 | 21 | 46% / 49% | 2 | under |
| 2023 W10 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 50% / 49% | 1 | under |
| 2023 W9 | Any TD | – | 19% TD chance | 19% / 3% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W9 | Any TD | – | 19% TD chance | 19% / 19% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W9 | Rec yds | 18.5 | 18 | 50% / 48% | 29 | over |
| 2023 W9 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 60% / 62% | 5 | over |
| 2023 W8 | Any TD | – | 13% TD chance | 13% / 17% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W8 | Rec yds | 20.5 | 18 | 46% / 50% | 5 | under |
| 2023 W8 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 38% / 40% | 1 | under |
| 2023 W4 | Any TD | – | 18% TD chance | 18% / 21% | – | void |
| 2023 W4 | Rec yds | 22.5 | 21 | 47% / 51% | – | void |
| 2023 W4 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 47% / 42% | – | void |
| 2023 W3 | Any TD | – | 21% TD chance | 21% / 23% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W3 | Rec yds | 30.5 | 24 | 39% / 49% | 12 | under |
| 2023 W3 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 54% / 56% | 2 | under |
| 2023 W2 | Any TD | – | 17% TD chance | 17% / 25% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W2 | Rec yds | 26.5 | 23 | 44% / 51% | 13 | under |
| 2023 W2 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 55% / 50% | 2 | under |
| 2023 W1 | Any TD | – | – | – / 23% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W1 | Rec yds | 29.5 | – | – / 50% | 36 | over |
| 2023 W1 | Rec | 2.5 | – | – / 55% | 3 | over |
Our calls
- 2026 W4 Under 47.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W3 Under 35.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W3 Under 35.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W3 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W2 Under 36.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W2 Under 36.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W2 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W1 Over 42.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W1 Over 4.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2025 W18 Under 58.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W18 Over 5.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W17 Under 45.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W17 Over 45.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W17 Over 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W16 Over 15.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W15 Over 16.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W15 Over 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W14 Under 40.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W14 Over 40.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W14 Over 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Under 41.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W13 Over 41.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Over 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W12 Over 16.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W12 Over 40.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W12 Under 40.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W12 Over 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W10 Under 37.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W10 Under 37.5 rec yds (Wind 15+ mph, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W10 Over 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W9 Under 35.5 rec yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W9 Under 35.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W9 Under 35.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W8 Over 38.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W8 Under 38.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W8 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W7 Over 26.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W7 Under 26.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W7 Over 26.5 rec yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W7 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W6 Over 36.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W6 Under 36.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W6 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W5 Under 35.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W4 Under 16.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W4 Under 42.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W4 Under 42.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W4 Under 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W3 Under 16.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W3 Over 41.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W3 Under 41.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W3 Under 41.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W3 Under 4.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W2 Under 15.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W2 Under 37.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W2 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W1 Over 25.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W1 Over 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W18 Under 29.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W18 Under 29.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
For information and entertainment only; not betting advice. Lines are a pregame consensus of US sportsbooks via The Odds API and change quickly. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
How this works
Lines are the median across US books about an hour before kickoff. Projections are rolling-origin: made only from data before that week. Players who did not play are void.
Sources: The Odds API (US sportsbooks), nflverseFull methodology