RB · GB · 29 lines since 2023
Kaleb Johnson Player Props
Closing consensus lines for Kaleb Johnson, what he did, and what our model projected before the game.
2026 Week 5
- Anytime TD priced at 34% — we make it 23%
- Line 9.5 rush attempts — we project 8 (P(over) 31%)
- Line 32.5 rush yds — we project 28 (P(over) 42%)
Over/under record by market
- Rushing yards over 1, under 4 (5 graded)
- Receiving yards over 0, under 1 (1 graded)
- Receptions over 0, under 1 (1 graded)
- Anytime TD over 0, under 13 (13 graded)
- Rush attempts over 1, under 2 (3 graded)
- Longest reception over 0, under 1 (1 graded)
Our calls on him: Starters out on defense 1–0 · model 5–3 · Short week 1–0
Line vs actual vs our projection
| Week | Market | Line | We projected | P(over) us / market | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 W5 | Any TD | – | 23% TD chance | 23% / 34% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rush att | 9.5 | 8 | 31% / 46% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rush yds | 32.5 | 28 | 42% / 50% | – | … |
| 2026 W4 | Any TD | – | 14% TD chance | 14% / 29% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W4 | Rush yds | 31.5 | 19 | 26% / 50% | 42 | over |
| 2026 W3 | Any TD | – | 16% TD chance | 16% / 33% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Rush yds | 38.5 | 19 | 20% / 50% | 6 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Any TD | – | 13% TD chance | 13% / 11% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Any TD | – | 14% TD chance | 14% / 14% | – | void |
| 2025 W15 | Any TD | – | 10% TD chance | 10% / 8% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Rush att | 2.5 | 3 | 52% / 42% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Rush yds | 6.5 | 6.8 | 51% / 51% | 4 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Any TD | – | 8% TD chance | 8% / 5% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Any TD | – | 8% TD chance | 8% / 5% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Any TD | – | 9% TD chance | 9% / 10% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Any TD | – | 7% TD chance | 7% / 4% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Any TD | – | 9% TD chance | 9% / 6% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W8 | Any TD | – | 10% TD chance | 10% / 5% | – | void |
| 2025 W6 | Any TD | – | 13% TD chance | 13% / 11% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Any TD | – | 7% TD chance | 7% / 20% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Long rec | 4.5 | 0 | 4% / 51% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Rec yds | 4.5 | 0 | 4% / 51% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Rec | 1.5 | 0 | 0% / 35% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Rush att | 5.5 | 2 | 4% / 57% | 6 | over |
| 2025 W4 | Rush yds | 22.5 | 4.7 | 10% / 50% | 22 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Any TD | – | 6% TD chance | 6% / 8% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Any TD | – | – | – / 20% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Rush att | 5.5 | – | – / 53% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Rush yds | 22.5 | – | – / 50% | -2 | under |
Our calls
- 2026 W4 Over 31.5 rush yds (Starters out on defense, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W4 Under 31.5 rush yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W3 Under 38.5 rush yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W3 Under 38.5 rush yds (Short week, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2025 W15 Over 2.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W4 Under 4.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W4 Under 4.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W4 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W4 Under 5.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W4 Under 22.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
For information and entertainment only; not betting advice. Lines are a pregame consensus of US sportsbooks via The Odds API and change quickly. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
How this works
Lines are the median across US books about an hour before kickoff. Projections are rolling-origin: made only from data before that week. Players who did not play are void.
Sources: The Odds API (US sportsbooks), nflverseFull methodology