RB · LAC · 86 lines since 2023
Keaton Mitchell Player Props
Closing consensus lines for Keaton Mitchell, what he did, and what our model projected before the game.
2026 Week 5
- Anytime TD priced at 26% — we make it 14%
- Line 8.5 yds longest rec — we project 6.3 (P(over) 38%)
- Line 10.5 rec yds — we project 8.8 (P(over) 45%)
- Line 7.5 rush attempts — we project 4 (P(over) 13%)
- Line 47.5 rush + rec yds — we project 28 (P(over) 23%)
- Line 32.5 rush yds — we project 17 (P(over) 22%)
Over/under record by market
- Rushing yards over 11, under 9 (20 graded)
- Receiving yards over 7, under 4 (11 graded)
- Receptions over 5, under 4 (9 graded)
- Anytime TD over 4, under 24 (28 graded)
- Rush attempts over 4, under 2 (6 graded)
- Longest reception over 2, under 3 (5 graded)
Our calls on him: model 12–27 · Dome team outdoors 0–2 · Missed tackles 7–6 · Starters out on defense 0–3 · Short week 4–0 · Big favourite (6.5+) 0–1 · Explosive plays 2–1 · Pre-snap motion 2–2
Line vs actual vs our projection
| Week | Market | Line | We projected | P(over) us / market | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 W5 | Any TD | – | 14% TD chance | 14% / 26% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Long rec | 8.5 | 6.3 | 38% / 49% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rec yds | 10.5 | 8.8 | 45% / 50% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rush att | 7.5 | 4 | 13% / 51% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rush+rec yds | 47.5 | 28 | 23% / 50% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rush yds | 32.5 | 17 | 22% / 51% | – | … |
| 2026 W4 | Any TD | – | 11% TD chance | 11% / 15% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W4 | Rec yds | 10.5 | 2.0 | 19% / 50% | 24 | over |
| 2026 W4 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 25% / 50% | 5 | over |
| 2026 W4 | Rush yds | 18.5 | 11 | 31% / 50% | 39 | over |
| 2026 W3 | Any TD | – | 8% TD chance | 8% / 15% | 1 | over |
| 2026 W3 | Rush yds | 14.5 | 8.7 | 35% / 50% | 52 | over |
| 2026 W2 | Any TD | – | 10% TD chance | 10% / 19% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Rush yds | 23.5 | 8.7 | 19% / 50% | 24 | over |
| 2026 W1 | Any TD | – | 14% TD chance | 14% / 21% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Rush yds | 24.5 | 10 | 22% / 51% | 9 | under |
| 2025 W18 | Any TD | – | 14% TD chance | 14% / 17% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W18 | Long rec | 1.5 | 0.7 | 48% / 49% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W18 | Rec yds | 0.5 | 0.8 | 51% / 51% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W18 | Rec | 0.5 | 1 | 52% / 56% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W18 | Rush att | 4.5 | 5 | 51% / 52% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W18 | Rush yds | 19.5 | 22 | 56% / 51% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Any TD | – | 12% TD chance | 12% / 15% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Long rec | 0.5 | 0 | 45% / 49% | 7 | over |
| 2025 W17 | Rec yds | 0.5 | 0 | 45% / 49% | 7 | over |
| 2025 W17 | Rec | 0.5 | 0 | 47% / 54% | 2 | over |
| 2025 W17 | Rush att | 6.5 | 4 | 23% / 44% | 9 | over |
| 2025 W17 | Rush yds | 27.5 | 18 | 33% / 50% | 31 | over |
| 2025 W16 | Any TD | – | 15% TD chance | 15% / 18% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Long rec | 1.5 | 1.0 | 49% / 49% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Rec yds | 0.5 | 1.0 | 51% / 51% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Rec | 0.5 | 1 | 53% / 55% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Rush att | 5.5 | 3 | 19% / 47% | 9 | over |
| 2025 W16 | Rush yds | 24.5 | 20 | 41% / 51% | 13 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Any TD | – | 12% TD chance | 12% / 19% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Long rec | 4.5 | 1.3 | 40% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Rec yds | 4.5 | 1.4 | 41% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Rec | 0.5 | 1 | 54% / 65% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Rush att | 3.5 | 3 | 39% / 54% | 8 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Rush yds | 20.5 | 16 | 41% / 51% | 66 | over |
| 2025 W14 | Any TD | – | 14% TD chance | 14% / 15% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Rush att | 3.5 | 3 | 33% / 51% | 6 | over |
| 2025 W14 | Rush yds | 13.5 | 11 | 44% / 51% | 76 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Any TD | – | 15% TD chance | 15% / 22% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Long rec | 7.5 | 2.6 | 33% / 49% | 12 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Rec yds | 8.5 | 2.9 | 34% / 50% | 12 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 24% / 43% | 2 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Rush yds | 22.5 | 14 | 34% / 51% | 19 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Any TD | – | 14% TD chance | 14% / 18% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Rush att | 4.5 | 3 | 26% / 47% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Rush yds | 25.5 | 14 | 31% / 49% | 10 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Any TD | – | 9% TD chance | 9% / 15% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Any TD | – | 9% TD chance | 9% / 10% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Rush yds | 11.5 | 8.7 | 42% / 50% | 31 | over |
| 2025 W9 | Any TD | – | 12% TD chance | 12% / 14% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Rush yds | 15.5 | 8.7 | 35% / 50% | 11 | under |
| 2025 W8 | Any TD | – | 9% TD chance | 9% / 6% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Any TD | – | 8% TD chance | 8% / 6% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Any TD | – | 8% TD chance | 8% / 7% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W18 | Any TD | – | 14% TD chance | 14% / 30% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W17 | Any TD | – | 9% TD chance | 9% / 15% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W12 | Any TD | – | 8% TD chance | 8% / 9% | – | void |
| 2024 W11 | Any TD | – | 8% TD chance | 8% / 11% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W11 | Rush yds | 9.5 | 7.6 | 46% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W10 | Any TD | – | 13% TD chance | 13% / 21% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W10 | Rush yds | 13.5 | 15 | 53% / 48% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W15 | Any TD | – | 17% TD chance | 17% / 40% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W15 | Rec yds | 10.5 | 4.7 | 34% / 50% | 15 | over |
| 2023 W15 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 32% / 49% | 2 | over |
| 2023 W15 | Rush yds | 45.5 | 31 | 33% / 51% | 73 | over |
| 2023 W14 | Any TD | – | 19% TD chance | 19% / 43% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W14 | Rec yds | 9.5 | 4.2 | 34% / 50% | 8 | under |
| 2023 W14 | Rush yds | 47.5 | 28 | 29% / 50% | 54 | over |
| 2023 W12 | Any TD | – | 18% TD chance | 18% / 35% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W12 | Rec yds | 8.5 | 5.6 | 41% / 49% | 25 | over |
| 2023 W12 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 34% / 45% | 2 | over |
| 2023 W12 | Rush yds | 37.5 | 23 | 30% / 49% | 64 | over |
| 2023 W11 | Any TD | – | 16% TD chance | 16% / 34% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W11 | Rec yds | 7.5 | 3.0 | 36% / 50% | 8 | over |
| 2023 W11 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 25% / 37% | 1 | under |
| 2023 W11 | Rush yds | 37.5 | 19 | 26% / 51% | 33 | under |
| 2023 W10 | Any TD | – | 9% TD chance | 9% / 19% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W10 | Rec yds | 5.5 | 0 | 25% / 49% | 32 | over |
| 2023 W10 | Rush yds | 20.5 | 15 | 39% / 50% | 34 | over |
| 2023 W9 | Any TD | – | 7% TD chance | 7% / 7% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W7 | Any TD | – | – | – / 8% | 0 | under |
Our calls
- 2026 W4 Under 10.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W4 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W4 Under 18.5 rush yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W4 Under 18.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W4 Under 18.5 rush yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W3 Under 14.5 rush yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W3 Under 14.5 rush yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W2 Under 23.5 rush yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2026 W1 Under 24.5 rush yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2025 W18 Over 19.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W17 Under 0.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W17 Under 6.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W17 Under 27.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W17 Under 27.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W16 Under 5.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W16 Over 24.5 rush yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W16 Under 24.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W16 Under 24.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W15 Under 4.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W15 Under 4.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W15 Under 0.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W15 Under 3.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W15 Over 20.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W15 Under 20.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W14 Under 3.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W14 Under 13.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Under 7.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Under 8.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Over 22.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Under 22.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W13 Under 22.5 rush yds (Short week, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W12 Over 4.5 rush attempts (Big favourite (6.5+), backtest) ❌
- 2025 W12 Under 4.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W12 Over 25.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W12 Under 25.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W10 Under 11.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W9 Over 15.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W9 Under 15.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W9 Under 15.5 rush yds (Short week, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W11 Over 9.5 rush yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W11 Under 9.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W10 Under 13.5 rush yds (Short week, backtest) ✅
- 2023 W15 Under 10.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2023 W15 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2023 W15 Over 45.5 rush yds (Explosive plays, backtest) ✅
- 2023 W15 Over 45.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ✅
- 2023 W15 Under 45.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2023 W15 Over 45.5 rush yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2023 W14 Under 9.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2023 W14 Over 47.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ✅
- 2023 W14 Under 47.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2023 W12 Under 8.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2023 W12 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2023 W12 Over 37.5 rush yds (Explosive plays, backtest) ✅
- 2023 W12 Under 37.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2023 W12 Over 37.5 rush yds (Pre-snap motion, backtest) ✅
- 2023 W11 Under 7.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2023 W11 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2023 W11 Over 37.5 rush yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
For information and entertainment only; not betting advice. Lines are a pregame consensus of US sportsbooks via The Odds API and change quickly. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
How this works
Lines are the median across US books about an hour before kickoff. Projections are rolling-origin: made only from data before that week. Players who did not play are void.
Sources: The Odds API (US sportsbooks), nflverseFull methodology