WR · NE · 40 lines since 2023
Kyle Williams Player Props
Closing consensus lines for Kyle Williams, what he did, and what our model projected before the game.
2026 Week 5
- Anytime TD priced at 14% — we make it 7%
- Line 14.5 rec yds — we project 13 (P(over) 47%)
- Line 1.5 receptions — we project 1 (P(over) 35%)
Over/under record by market
- Receiving yards over 2, under 4 (6 graded)
- Receptions over 2, under 4 (6 graded)
- Anytime TD over 3, under 18 (21 graded)
- Longest reception over 1, under 3 (4 graded)
Our calls on him: model 9–4 · Freezing 2–0 · Short week 1–0
Line vs actual vs our projection
| Week | Market | Line | We projected | P(over) us / market | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 W5 | Any TD | – | 7% TD chance | 7% / 14% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rec yds | 14.5 | 13 | 47% / 49% | – | … |
| 2026 W5 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 35% / 35% | – | … |
| 2026 W4 | Any TD | – | 4% TD chance | 4% / 12% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W4 | Rec yds | 12.5 | 8.5 | 42% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W4 | Rec | 0.5 | 1 | 67% / 63% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Any TD | – | 4% TD chance | 4% / 10% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Rec yds | 8.5 | 4.2 | 42% / 50% | 34 | over |
| 2026 W3 | Rec | 0.5 | 1 | 57% / 61% | 1 | over |
| 2026 W2 | Any TD | – | 4% TD chance | 4% / 11% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Any TD | – | 6% TD chance | 6% / 8% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W18 | Any TD | – | 6% TD chance | 6% / 25% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W18 | Long rec | 12.5 | 11 | 48% / 51% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W18 | Rec yds | 18.5 | 13 | 41% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W18 | Rec | 1.5 | 1 | 36% / 52% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Any TD | – | 6% TD chance | 6% / 27% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Long rec | 17.5 | 11 | 38% / 50% | 11 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Rec yds | 30.5 | 12 | 29% / 50% | 20 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Rec | 2.5 | 1 | 13% / 47% | 3 | over |
| 2025 W16 | Any TD | – | 3% TD chance | 3% / 8% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Any TD | – | 3% TD chance | 3% / 10% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Any TD | – | 4% TD chance | 4% / 9% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W12 | Any TD | – | 6% TD chance | 6% / 10% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Any TD | – | 6% TD chance | 6% / 21% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Long rec | 15.5 | 0 | 25% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Rec yds | 18.5 | 0 | 23% / 51% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Rec | 1.5 | 0 | 16% / 49% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Any TD | – | 4% TD chance | 4% / 18% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W10 | Long rec | 12.5 | 0 | 20% / 50% | 72 | over |
| 2025 W10 | Rec yds | 15.5 | 0 | 18% / 50% | 72 | over |
| 2025 W10 | Rec | 1.5 | 0 | 10% / 50% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Any TD | – | 4% TD chance | 4% / 7% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W8 | Any TD | – | 3% TD chance | 3% / 6% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Any TD | – | 4% TD chance | 4% / 7% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Any TD | – | 3% TD chance | 3% / 7% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Any TD | – | 3% TD chance | 3% / 6% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Any TD | – | 5% TD chance | 5% / 7% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W3 | Any TD | – | 4% TD chance | 4% / 7% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Any TD | – | 4% TD chance | 4% / 7% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Any TD | – | – | – / 8% | 0 | under |
Our calls
- 2026 W4 Under 12.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ✅
- 2026 W3 Under 8.5 rec yds (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
- 2025 W18 Under 18.5 rec yds (Freezing, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W18 Under 18.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W18 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W17 Under 17.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W17 Under 30.5 rec yds (Freezing, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W17 Under 30.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W17 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W11 Under 15.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W11 Under 18.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W11 Under 18.5 rec yds (Short week, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W11 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W10 Under 12.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W10 Under 15.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W10 Under 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
For information and entertainment only; not betting advice. Lines are a pregame consensus of US sportsbooks via The Odds API and change quickly. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
How this works
Lines are the median across US books about an hour before kickoff. Projections are rolling-origin: made only from data before that week. Players who did not play are void.
Sources: The Odds API (US sportsbooks), nflverseFull methodology