TE · DAL · 95 lines since 2023
Luke Schoonmaker Player Props
Closing consensus lines for Luke Schoonmaker, what he did, and what our model projected before the game.
2026 Week 5
- Anytime TD priced at 10% — we make it 4%
Over/under record by market
- Receiving yards over 8, under 10 (18 graded)
- Receptions over 8, under 4 (12 graded)
- Anytime TD over 3, under 51 (54 graded)
- Longest reception over 4, under 6 (10 graded)
Our calls on him: model 9–14 · Starters out on defense 0–1 · Short week 1–1 · Dome team outdoors 4–2 · Wind 15+ mph 2–0
Line vs actual vs our projection
| Week | Market | Line | We projected | P(over) us / market | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 W5 | Any TD | – | 4% TD chance | 4% / 10% | – | … |
| 2026 W4 | Any TD | – | 3% TD chance | 3% / 7% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Any TD | – | 7% TD chance | 7% / 7% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Any TD | – | 6% TD chance | 6% / 9% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Any TD | – | 9% TD chance | 9% / 9% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Any TD | – | 7% TD chance | 7% / 11% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Any TD | – | 6% TD chance | 6% / 9% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Long rec | 0.5 | 3.5 | 57% / 49% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Rec yds | 0.5 | 3.5 | 57% / 49% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Rec | 0.5 | 1 | 58% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W15 | Any TD | – | 9% TD chance | 9% / 11% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Any TD | – | 7% TD chance | 7% / 9% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Long rec | 0.5 | 2.6 | 55% / 44% | 12 | over |
| 2025 W14 | Rec yds | 0.5 | 2.7 | 55% / 44% | 12 | over |
| 2025 W14 | Rec | 0.5 | 1 | 56% / 46% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Any TD | – | 7% TD chance | 7% / 11% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Long rec | 1.5 | 2.8 | 54% / 51% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Rec yds | 1.5 | 3.0 | 54% / 51% | 1 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Rec | 0.5 | 1 | 56% / 53% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W12 | Any TD | – | 6% TD chance | 6% / 9% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Long rec | 3.5 | 2.8 | 48% / 49% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Rec yds | 3.5 | 2.9 | 49% / 49% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Rec | 0.5 | 1 | 58% / 55% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Any TD | – | 9% TD chance | 9% / 11% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Long rec | 5.5 | 4.1 | 46% / 49% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Rec yds | 5.5 | 4.4 | 47% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W11 | Rec | 0.5 | 1 | 61% / 58% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Any TD | – | 11% TD chance | 11% / 13% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W9 | Long rec | 3.5 | 4.7 | 54% / 51% | 14 | over |
| 2025 W9 | Rec yds | 3.5 | 5.1 | 54% / 51% | 14 | over |
| 2025 W9 | Rec | 0.5 | 1 | 61% / 58% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W8 | Any TD | – | 8% TD chance | 8% / 10% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Any TD | – | 10% TD chance | 10% / 10% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Long rec | 2.5 | 6.1 | 60% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Rec yds | 2.5 | 7.2 | 60% / 50% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Any TD | – | 6% TD chance | 6% / 11% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Long rec | 7.5 | 6.4 | 47% / 49% | 8 | over |
| 2025 W6 | Rec yds | 8.5 | 7.3 | 47% / 49% | 8 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Any TD | – | 6% TD chance | 6% / 11% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Long rec | 6.5 | 5.4 | 46% / 49% | 3 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Rec yds | 7.5 | 5.9 | 47% / 49% | 3 | under |
| 2025 W5 | Rec | 0.5 | 1 | 64% / 66% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W4 | Any TD | – | 4% TD chance | 4% / 6% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W4 | Long rec | 1.5 | 4.0 | 58% / 51% | 5 | over |
| 2025 W4 | Rec yds | 1.5 | 4.3 | 58% / 50% | 8 | over |
| 2025 W3 | Any TD | – | 5% TD chance | 5% / 8% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W2 | Any TD | – | 6% TD chance | 6% / 9% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W1 | Any TD | – | 8% TD chance | 8% / 8% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W18 | Any TD | – | 4% TD chance | 4% / 10% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W17 | Any TD | – | 5% TD chance | 5% / 7% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W16 | Any TD | – | 6% TD chance | 6% / 12% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W15 | Any TD | – | 4% TD chance | 4% / 11% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W14 | Any TD | – | 6% TD chance | 6% / 14% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W13 | Any TD | – | 11% TD chance | 11% / 22% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W13 | Rec yds | 29.5 | 13 | 24% / 49% | 33 | over |
| 2024 W13 | Rec | 3.5 | 2 | 15% / 43% | 5 | over |
| 2024 W12 | Any TD | – | 7% TD chance | 7% / 20% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W12 | Rec yds | 27.5 | 12 | 22% / 51% | 55 | over |
| 2024 W12 | Rec | 3.5 | 2 | 14% / 43% | 3 | under |
| 2024 W11 | Any TD | – | 4% TD chance | 4% / 5% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W10 | Any TD | – | 3% TD chance | 3% / 4% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W9 | Any TD | – | 7% TD chance | 7% / 7% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W8 | Any TD | – | 6% TD chance | 6% / 8% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W6 | Any TD | – | 9% TD chance | 9% / 11% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W5 | Any TD | – | 7% TD chance | 7% / 9% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W4 | Any TD | – | 10% TD chance | 10% / 9% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W3 | Any TD | – | 8% TD chance | 8% / 15% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W2 | Any TD | – | 14% TD chance | 14% / 29% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W2 | Rec yds | 17.5 | 4.9 | 26% / 52% | 43 | over |
| 2024 W2 | Rec | 2.5 | 1 | 8% / 45% | 6 | over |
| 2024 W1 | Any TD | – | 5% TD chance | 5% / 8% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W1 | Rec yds | 1.5 | 0 | 35% / 51% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W18 | Any TD | – | 9% TD chance | 9% / 12% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W17 | Any TD | – | 8% TD chance | 8% / 14% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W16 | Any TD | – | 7% TD chance | 7% / 11% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W15 | Any TD | – | 8% TD chance | 8% / 9% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W14 | Any TD | – | 10% TD chance | 10% / 12% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W14 | Rec yds | 5.5 | 0.8 | 40% / 49% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W13 | Any TD | – | 11% TD chance | 11% / 13% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W13 | Rec yds | 5.5 | 0.2 | 39% / 49% | 12 | over |
| 2023 W13 | Rec | 0.5 | 1 | 50% / 61% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W12 | Any TD | – | 11% TD chance | 11% / 14% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W11 | Any TD | – | 9% TD chance | 9% / 10% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W11 | Rec yds | 0.5 | 0 | 36% / 47% | 23 | over |
| 2023 W11 | Rec | 0.5 | 0 | 36% / 49% | 2 | over |
| 2023 W10 | Any TD | – | 12% TD chance | 12% / 13% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W9 | Any TD | – | 7% TD chance | 7% / 12% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W8 | Any TD | – | 8% TD chance | 8% / 13% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W6 | Any TD | – | 9% TD chance | 9% / 12% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W5 | Any TD | – | 8% TD chance | 8% / 12% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W5 | Rec yds | 5.5 | 0 | 35% / 51% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W4 | Any TD | – | 3% TD chance | 3% / 12% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W3 | Any TD | – | 5% TD chance | 5% / 10% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W2 | Any TD | – | 1% TD chance | 1% / 10% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W1 | Any TD | – | – | – / 13% | 0 | under |
Our calls
- 2025 W16 Over 0.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W16 Over 0.5 rec yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W16 Over 0.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W16 Over 0.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W14 Over 0.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W14 Over 0.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W14 Over 0.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W13 Under 1.5 rec yds (Short week, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W7 Over 2.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W7 Over 2.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W6 Under 8.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W6 Under 8.5 rec yds (Wind 15+ mph, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W5 Under 7.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W4 Over 1.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W4 Over 1.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W13 Under 29.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W13 Under 29.5 rec yds (Short week, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W13 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W12 Under 27.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W12 Under 27.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W12 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W2 Under 17.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W2 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W1 Under 1.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W1 Under 1.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W1 Under 1.5 rec yds (Wind 15+ mph, backtest) ✅
- 2023 W14 Under 5.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2023 W13 Under 5.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2023 W13 Under 0.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2023 W11 Under 0.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ❌
- 2023 W11 Under 0.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2023 W11 Under 0.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2023 W5 Under 5.5 rec yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ✅
- 2023 W5 Under 5.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
For information and entertainment only; not betting advice. Lines are a pregame consensus of US sportsbooks via The Odds API and change quickly. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
How this works
Lines are the median across US books about an hour before kickoff. Projections are rolling-origin: made only from data before that week. Players who did not play are void.
Sources: The Odds API (US sportsbooks), nflverseFull methodology