RB · CLE · 39 lines since 2023
Michael Burton Player Props
Closing consensus lines for Michael Burton, what he did, and what our model projected before the game.
2026 Week 5
- Anytime TD priced at 3% — we make it 3%
Over/under record by market
- Anytime TD over 2, under 36 (38 graded)
Our calls on him: model 0–1
Line vs actual vs our projection
| Week | Market | Line | We projected | P(over) us / market | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 W5 | Any TD | – | 3% TD chance | 3% / 3% | – | … |
| 2026 W4 | Any TD | – | 3% TD chance | 3% / 3% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W3 | Any TD | – | 4% TD chance | 4% / 2% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W2 | Any TD | – | 3% TD chance | 3% / 2% | 0 | under |
| 2026 W1 | Any TD | – | 13% TD chance | 13% / 2% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W18 | Any TD | – | 9% TD chance | 9% / 8% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W17 | Any TD | – | 9% TD chance | 9% / 7% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W16 | Any TD | – | 7% TD chance | 7% / 5% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W15 | Any TD | – | 8% TD chance | 8% / 7% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W13 | Any TD | – | 7% TD chance | 7% / 6% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W12 | Any TD | – | 6% TD chance | 6% / 8% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W11 | Any TD | – | 5% TD chance | 5% / 5% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W10 | Any TD | – | 4% TD chance | 4% / 5% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W9 | Any TD | – | 3% TD chance | 3% / 5% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W8 | Any TD | – | 5% TD chance | 5% / 6% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W7 | Any TD | – | 5% TD chance | 5% / 4% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W6 | Any TD | – | 3% TD chance | 3% / 4% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W5 | Any TD | – | 5% TD chance | 5% / 5% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W4 | Any TD | – | 4% TD chance | 4% / 3% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W3 | Any TD | – | 4% TD chance | 4% / 5% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W2 | Any TD | – | 5% TD chance | 5% / 7% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W1 | Any TD | – | 5% TD chance | 5% / 6% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W18 | Any TD | – | 3% TD chance | 3% / 3% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W17 | Any TD | – | 5% TD chance | 5% / 6% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W16 | Any TD | – | 4% TD chance | 4% / 5% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W15 | Any TD | – | 3% TD chance | 3% / 7% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W14 | Any TD | – | 4% TD chance | 4% / 6% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W13 | Any TD | – | 4% TD chance | 4% / 7% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W12 | Any TD | – | 3% TD chance | 3% / 6% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W11 | Any TD | – | 3% TD chance | 3% / 6% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W10 | Any TD | – | 2% TD chance | 2% / 5% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W8 | Any TD | – | 3% TD chance | 3% / 6% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W7 | Any TD | – | 3% TD chance | 3% / 5% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W6 | Any TD | – | 3% TD chance | 3% / 5% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W5 | Any TD | – | 3% TD chance | 3% / 6% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W4 | Any TD | – | 6% TD chance | 6% / 7% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W3 | Any TD | – | 7% TD chance | 7% / 4% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W2 | Any TD | – | 7% TD chance | 7% / 4% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W1 | Any TD | – | – | – / 6% | 0 | under |
Our calls
- 2026 W1 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest (after the fact)) ❌
For information and entertainment only; not betting advice. Lines are a pregame consensus of US sportsbooks via The Odds API and change quickly. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
How this works
Lines are the median across US books about an hour before kickoff. Projections are rolling-origin: made only from data before that week. Players who did not play are void.
Sources: The Odds API (US sportsbooks), nflverseFull methodology