RB · TEN · 95 lines since 2023
Michael Carter Player Props
Closing consensus lines for Michael Carter, what he did, and what our model projected before the game.
2026 Week 5
- Anytime TD priced at 6% — we make it 13%
Over/under record by market
- Rushing yards over 5, under 7 (12 graded)
- Receiving yards over 8, under 5 (13 graded)
- Receptions over 6, under 5 (11 graded)
- Anytime TD over 3, under 36 (39 graded)
- Rush attempts over 2, under 6 (8 graded)
- Longest reception over 7, under 2 (9 graded)
Our calls on him: model 22–26 · Big underdog (6.5+) 4–1 · Missed tackles 3–1 · Starters out on defense 1–1 · Dome team outdoors 2–0 · Big favourite (6.5+) 1–0
Line vs actual vs our projection
| Week | Market | Line | We projected | P(over) us / market | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 W5 | Any TD | – | 13% TD chance | 13% / 6% | – | … |
| 2026 W4 | Any TD | – | 22% TD chance | 22% / 3% | – | void |
| 2025 W18 | Any TD | – | 28% TD chance | 28% / 25% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W18 | Long rec | 9.5 | 7.5 | 40% / 48% | 11 | over |
| 2025 W18 | Rec yds | 13.5 | 10 | 43% / 51% | 21 | over |
| 2025 W18 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 36% / 47% | 3 | over |
| 2025 W18 | Rush att | 10.5 | 8 | 27% / 50% | 7 | under |
| 2025 W18 | Rush yds | 36.5 | 26 | 33% / 51% | 18 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Any TD | – | 38% TD chance | 38% / 45% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Long rec | 9.5 | 8.6 | 46% / 51% | 8 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Rec yds | 15.5 | 12 | 43% / 50% | 14 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 35% / 55% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Rush att | 11.5 | 8 | 21% / 46% | 7 | under |
| 2025 W17 | Rush yds | 44.5 | 30 | 30% / 49% | 29 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Any TD | – | 33% TD chance | 33% / 45% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Long rec | 11.5 | 9.6 | 41% / 49% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Rec yds | 20.5 | 14 | 35% / 49% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Rec | 3.5 | 2 | 20% / 44% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Rush att | 12.5 | 7 | 8% / 52% | 11 | under |
| 2025 W16 | Rush yds | 49.5 | 25 | 14% / 50% | 65 | over |
| 2025 W15 | Any TD | – | 22% TD chance | 22% / 12% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Any TD | – | 31% TD chance | 31% / 24% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Long rec | 11.5 | 9.7 | 41% / 47% | 12 | over |
| 2025 W14 | Rec yds | 18.5 | 16 | 45% / 51% | 18 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Rec | 2.5 | 3 | 51% / 53% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Rush att | 5.5 | 6 | 61% / 52% | 3 | under |
| 2025 W14 | Rush yds | 17.5 | 19 | 55% / 51% | 13 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Any TD | – | 32% TD chance | 32% / 24% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W13 | Long rec | 8.5 | 8.7 | 51% / 52% | 15 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Rec yds | 12.5 | 14 | 53% / 58% | 47 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 67% / 62% | 5 | over |
| 2025 W13 | Rush yds | 18.5 | 24 | 60% / 50% | 17 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Any TD | – | 31% TD chance | 31% / 28% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Long rec | 8.5 | 8.8 | 52% / 49% | 18 | over |
| 2025 W12 | Rec yds | 11.5 | 14 | 56% / 49% | 30 | over |
| 2025 W12 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 66% / 62% | 3 | over |
| 2025 W12 | Rush att | 5.5 | 7 | 63% / 52% | 5 | under |
| 2025 W12 | Rush yds | 19.5 | 21 | 52% / 49% | 28 | over |
| 2025 W11 | Any TD | – | 27% TD chance | 27% / 11% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W10 | Any TD | – | 22% TD chance | 22% / 5% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Any TD | – | 36% TD chance | 36% / 25% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Long rec | 10.5 | 8.5 | 38% / 50% | 14 | over |
| 2025 W7 | Rec yds | 17.5 | 13 | 39% / 50% | 25 | over |
| 2025 W7 | Rec | 2.5 | 2 | 45% / 54% | 2 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Rush att | 8.5 | 10 | 58% / 54% | 7 | under |
| 2025 W7 | Rush yds | 28.5 | 30 | 53% / 50% | 11 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Any TD | – | 32% TD chance | 32% / 26% | 0 | under |
| 2025 W6 | Long rec | 6.5 | 6.2 | 48% / 51% | 16 | over |
| 2025 W6 | Rec yds | 10.5 | 8.7 | 43% / 50% | 30 | over |
| 2025 W6 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 57% / 54% | 2 | over |
| 2025 W6 | Rush att | 7.5 | 8 | 60% / 49% | 9 | over |
| 2025 W6 | Rush yds | 25.5 | 26 | 50% / 51% | 34 | over |
| 2025 W5 | Any TD | – | 23% TD chance | 23% / 43% | 1 | over |
| 2025 W5 | Long rec | 8.5 | 2.9 | 27% / 51% | 9 | over |
| 2025 W5 | Rec yds | 10.5 | 3.3 | 26% / 50% | 22 | over |
| 2025 W5 | Rec | 2.5 | 1 | 9% / 40% | 5 | over |
| 2025 W5 | Rush att | 11.5 | 5 | 3% / 52% | 18 | over |
| 2025 W5 | Rush yds | 44.5 | 19 | 14% / 50% | 51 | over |
| 2025 W4 | Any TD | – | 41% TD chance | 41% / 5% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W18 | Any TD | – | 26% TD chance | 26% / 46% | 1 | over |
| 2024 W18 | Rec yds | 16.5 | 9.7 | 33% / 51% | 16 | under |
| 2024 W18 | Rush yds | 59.5 | 30 | 15% / 52% | 43 | under |
| 2024 W17 | Any TD | – | 27% TD chance | 27% / 17% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W17 | Rush yds | 13.5 | 19 | 64% / 49% | 70 | over |
| 2024 W16 | Any TD | – | 14% TD chance | 14% / 7% | 0 | under |
| 2024 W2 | Any TD | – | 13% TD chance | 13% / 3% | – | void |
| 2023 W18 | Any TD | – | 16% TD chance | 16% / 21% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W17 | Any TD | – | 9% TD chance | 9% / 8% | 1 | over |
| 2023 W16 | Any TD | – | 11% TD chance | 11% / 11% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W15 | Any TD | – | 10% TD chance | 10% / 13% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W13 | Any TD | – | 11% TD chance | 11% / 13% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W12 | Any TD | – | 9% TD chance | 9% / 11% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W10 | Any TD | – | 10% TD chance | 10% / 3% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W10 | Any TD | – | 10% TD chance | 10% / 13% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W9 | Any TD | – | 10% TD chance | 10% / 3% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W9 | Any TD | – | 10% TD chance | 10% / 13% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W9 | Rec yds | 4.5 | 5.7 | 54% / 50% | 24 | over |
| 2023 W9 | Rec | 0.5 | 1 | 72% / 63% | 6 | over |
| 2023 W8 | Any TD | – | 11% TD chance | 11% / 7% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W8 | Any TD | – | 11% TD chance | 11% / 3% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W6 | Any TD | – | 5% TD chance | 5% / 11% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W6 | Any TD | – | 5% TD chance | 5% / 3% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W6 | Rec yds | 10.5 | 7.6 | 40% / 49% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W6 | Rec | 1.5 | 2 | 53% / 56% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W5 | Any TD | – | 9% TD chance | 9% / 3% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W5 | Any TD | – | 9% TD chance | 9% / 13% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W4 | Any TD | – | 10% TD chance | 10% / 12% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W4 | Any TD | – | 10% TD chance | 10% / 3% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W4 | Rec yds | 5.5 | 4.3 | 43% / 48% | 12 | over |
| 2023 W3 | Any TD | – | 9% TD chance | 9% / 3% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W3 | Any TD | – | 9% TD chance | 9% / 12% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W3 | Rush yds | 8.5 | 3.9 | 33% / 47% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W2 | Any TD | – | 9% TD chance | 9% / 3% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W2 | Any TD | – | 9% TD chance | 9% / 10% | 0 | under |
| 2023 W1 | Any TD | – | – | – / 17% | 0 | under |
Our calls
- 2026 W4 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest (after the fact)) void
- 2025 W18 Under 9.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W18 Under 13.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W18 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W18 Under 10.5 rush attempts (Big underdog (6.5+), backtest) ✅
- 2025 W18 Under 10.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W18 Under 36.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W18 Under 36.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W17 Under 9.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W17 Under 15.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W17 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W17 Under 11.5 rush attempts (Big underdog (6.5+), backtest) ✅
- 2025 W17 Under 11.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W17 Over 44.5 rush yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W17 Under 44.5 rush yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W17 Over 44.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W17 Under 44.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W16 Under 11.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W16 Under 20.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W16 Under 3.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W16 Under 12.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W16 Under 49.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W15 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W14 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W14 Under 11.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W14 Under 18.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W14 Under 5.5 rush attempts (Big underdog (6.5+), backtest) ✅
- 2025 W14 Over 5.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W14 Under 17.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W13 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W13 Over 1.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W13 Under 18.5 rush yds (Dome team outdoors, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W13 Over 18.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W12 Over 11.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W12 Over 5.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W12 Over 19.5 rush yds (Starters out on defense, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W11 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W10 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W7 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W7 Under 10.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W7 Under 17.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W7 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W7 Under 8.5 rush attempts (Big underdog (6.5+), backtest) ✅
- 2025 W6 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W6 Under 10.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W6 Under 7.5 rush attempts (Big underdog (6.5+), backtest) ❌
- 2025 W6 Over 7.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ✅
- 2025 W5 Under 8.5 yds longest rec (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W5 Under 10.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W5 Under 2.5 receptions (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W5 Over 11.5 rush attempts (Big favourite (6.5+), backtest) ✅
- 2025 W5 Under 11.5 rush attempts (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W5 Under 44.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ❌
- 2025 W4 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W18 Under 16.5 rec yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W18 Under 59.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W17 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
- 2024 W17 Over 13.5 rush yds (Missed tackles, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W17 Over 13.5 rush yds (model, backtest) ✅
- 2024 W16 Anytime TD: yes (model, backtest) ❌
For information and entertainment only; not betting advice. Lines are a pregame consensus of US sportsbooks via The Odds API and change quickly. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
How this works
Lines are the median across US books about an hour before kickoff. Projections are rolling-origin: made only from data before that week. Players who did not play are void.
Sources: The Odds API (US sportsbooks), nflverseFull methodology